BearFan PHX

I hear ya!

watch tape, dont quote stats that you read out of context. Williams held the ball on some plays for a reason, not because he was indecisive. When you just read stats you really dont know what they mean.

FWIW I watched the first half of LSU / Alabama to see Jayden Daniels. I gotta say what I saw was shocking. In literally every play I saw, Daniels stared down a single receiver from the snap, and either threw the ball to that receiver, or ran. There is a stripe on the top of his helmet and it was astonishing how it never rotated. I've never seen anything that clear. In some plays, there were other receivers wide open, and he didn't ever look to a second read. He has an incredible arm, and when Nabers is open, which he often is, and is Daniels' primary read, which he often was, Daniels throws a really nice ball and puts up those big numbers. LSU has another WR who is pretty good too, and ditto that - if he's the first read, Daniels puts up some really beautiful throws. But I didn't see him once turn his head. He didnt even look off safeties - he just locked on to his primary receiver right from the snap and then threw him the ball or bailed and ran. That is gonna have to change big time in the NFL or we all know what happens. CBs punish you int he NFL for staring down receivers, and when Defensive Coordinators find out you're not multidimensional, they can get into your head and shut you down, just like what happened to Justin. Daniels moves down my rankings big time after seeing this. And it wasn't as if I'd read that about him before, or was looking for it. It just stood out from the film. There it was, true on it's own merit with no bias, because i wasn't even looking for that when I started watching. It wasnt a narrative, it was just there on film. EDIT - I finally saw a single play where he looked around. He was looking around panicked, and threw an incompletion, the receiver dropped it. But his head did move on that one play. It was not an example of smoothly going through a progression though that's for sure. Also, because he locks on to one receiver right from the snap, defensive linemen have time to get into throwing lanes, and he gets a lot of balls tipped too. Hard pass on Daniels.

he's projected to be worth $10.4M a year. Poles is disciplined with his spending but that doesn't mean he isn't willing to spend big when a player is worth it. $10.4M/yr isn't that big of a contract anyway. He apparently plays deep center field or in the box, and can play cover corner too. On spotrac, his player comp is Eddie Jackson LOL Good find ASHKUM.

I would definitely take two first rounders for JJ.One of them we'd have to use on his replacement though, and the other one comes in 2025?

I've been thinking the same thing. Poles does seem to have an eye for DBs, and while Jaylon is good, and Im happy to have him here for a while, and he is worth the money, and we do have the cap space - but a few more picks might help the team more. I think it's almost a toss up for me. I guess we keep him. But if we can sign him to a deal that we can get out of next year with a trade, like front loading it with money this year, having him this year, and possibly getting major picks for him next year when we can replace him wouldnt be bad.

The Bears tagged Jaylon Johnson - no surprise, and likely contract negotiations will follow.

yup to all of that too

good analysis, it all makes sense assuming teams really want him. I think someone will, I hope two someones will.

I AM predicting Justin is gone, I wasnt predicting Flus would be gone, but I do think it was the wrong move to keep him. But can i predict if Poles will do the wrong thing? Of course not. But keeping Justin would be extremely stupid. Maybe I should be clearer for you - Justin and Flus are not the same person.

LOL it wasnt my prediction he would be gone it was my opinion he SHOULD be gone. I still think that. But youre grasping at straws. Justin is gone, Bears will draft a new QB. Its a good thing. Dont know why youre so stuck, but thats your deal.

yes QBs do inflate the value of the trade downs if more than one team is hungry for sure. lacking picks, I think we will grab a bunch of free agents. Not sure how many will be big splashes, but I see a handful of guys under say $7M a year making a lot of sense to fill those holes until next years draft. Maybe we are taking a WR at #9, so the rookie QB can get chemistry and we get a bunch of OL in free agency?

its a good thought, the Hill chart says sliding from 9 all the way to 20 gets you a mid 2nd, but going to 15 only gets you a high 3rd. You could get JPJ that way, but I think we really need weapons for the new QB too. Maybe a WR at 15 and a center but not JPJ in the 2nd? The Justin picks are going to be really important, I hope we are able to get value for him, but if theres only one team interested, they could well wait until we just cut him if there are no other offers.

I hate PFF, but in this case I agree with you (and them) about Bates. I can't see us trading back from #1 unless it's to #2. I just watched some tape on Daniels and I see real problems. I don't have an opinion on Maye yet, and there are some other names to look at too, but more and more I think we will just take Caleb. But I absolutely see the problem that we are very short on picks. And you only get a haul out of pick 1 or 2. Trading 9 down to 20 you only get a 3rd rounder for the trouble. If youre all in on JPJ and hes your other first rounder, and you dont want to overdraft him, then OK, but I think we stay at #9 and take OT, WR, Bowers or a DL. We are short on picks for sure. Worth it for Sweat, but we need more picks. Maybe we will spend next years 2nd to move our 3rd up into round 2. We still need too many things though.

I suspect he will be the swing C/G, and thats a good point about already knowing what the Justin offers are, at least what the worst case scenario is, it could always go up if more teams jump in, but your point that they know it's a least X, and X allows them to spend this 5th rounder is smart.

lol yes! there is nothing immoral about Justin Fields! I like the kid, I really do. He is an incredible athlete, but his skills dont really add up to a QB position. Im serious when I say he reminds me of Hester. In 2022 he was a threat to score any time he touched the ball. His open field running is legendary status. But then two things happened - one is the Bears obviously told him not to make any moves on defenders in the open field, and to slide to avoid injury - which makes sense but took away his greatest strength. and two is that defenses realized he wouldnt surgically punish them if they adjusted their defensive front to contain his running. In fact they learned how to push his mental buttons to get him to run right into their linemen. And so he cant really ever succeed as an NFL QB. He'd have to punish teams with anticipatory timing throws across the middle before hed get an honest defensive front and be able to run again. I mean, he will break off more highlights, but he wont be able to consistently move chains and score that way. So he's finished. But he's not a bad guy. He's an incredible athlete, a hard worker and a hell of a nice person. A good leader too. He just had this incredible flash of open field ability that made everyone fall in love with him, but it's not enough to attack NFL defenses that adjust to it without a complementary on time passing skill. You could be the best rock thrower in rock paper scissors, but if you dont have a scissors counter move, your opponent learns to always play paper and beat your rock, and if you cant burn them with scissors, youre done. No matter how well you throw that rock.

Fields may well not be traded by the opening of free agency, because there are better QBs available like Kirk Cousins and Russell Wilson. I don't see any team giving up draft value for Justin when they might be able to get one of those guys instead. So he may not get traded right away, but it wont be for any reason except that no one wants him that much. And he wont be in camp for us in the fall. That would be a colossal error. The morale issues alone are a nightmare.

they are having cap issues I guess in Buffalo. This one guy fills several needs, and probably better value than in free agency, and he's young at 27. First off, he allows us not to have to spend big money on a center. it's kind of a signal we are drafting a center. This allows us to trust that if a rookie isnt ready we arent screwed. We will probably sign a lame-ish free agent QB too for the same reason. Unless we trust Bagent, but Im getting off on a tanget. And once he has served his purpose as a booster rocket to a rookie center, or a placeholder, then he becomes insurance with Jenkins and Davis, both who can be great, but you cant fully count on it seems. Someone, I think it was Pix, said that he is going to be our Lucas Patrick. And that's almost as important as a nickel with our line it seems. It's someone that lets you potentially roll with Davis and Jenkins one more year, and provides a quality option at any interior position for injury. I think in order to be able to go into the draft, you gotta sign these mid level free agents to fill any hoes you have so you dont have to reach if the draft falls one way or another. if we had no center, then wed be at the mercy of the draft ebbs and flows, and this way we dont need to sign a $10M+ free agent center, which would limit our ability to grab a JPJ or VanPran if they are available where we can get them. Or to ignore them if someone amazing falls. If all goes well he will be our backup C/G, but he gives us a lot of flexibility in the next few months too. We will sign a FS too.

Well youre calling me paranoid. But I dont care. Whatever. Ive accepted that we all choose to be a little rough and sarcastic here, fine, just dont mind if I do it too then, Ill go the speed of traffic. What you said was I was wrong about Flus so I dont know everything, and I answered that point. I didnt say you were mean, but I did say that your argument is flawed because we all make mistakes, and I clarified what id actually said about Flus. And also that i wasnt predicting what Poles would do, I was saying what i think he SHOULD do. That's why i said "what I THINK" Iw asnt wrong. I was right - I do think Poles should have fired Flus. But what he cant do is keep Fields. Not saying wont. Saying cant. Shouldnt. Would be foolish if he did. But none of this matters. People can be an offended as they want to about the idea that I am certain that Fields sucks. Well I am. I am certain. I have seen it and I am genuinely baffled anyone thinks otherwise at this point. I think it couldnt be more obvious. It is rare that I am so certain about anything as I am about Justin. So this isnt a problem with me thinking Im so great - Im just completely convinced on this one question. There are people who think the earth is flat. I think theyre wrong too, and I dont go around saying "well of course you could be right" its just wrong. This time last year it was a debate, but the experiment is over. Justin sucks. I dont want him in camp with a rookie. It's not a good move for morale, and frankly I see Justin's presence and performance hampering a rookie's development, not giving excellent advice about reading defenses because he is still trying to learn it himself.

Poles tried to sign him in free agency in 2022 when he was a RFA but Buffalo matched our offer. That's a good sign.

exactly. and also, since we have two potentially very good guards, both of whom missed time last season, you have a quality replacement if one falters, or if the new guy ascends. And it covers your bases for the draft so you can go BPA and not have to reach for a center if it doesnt fall the right way, and conversely so you dont have to rely on a rookie center to start right away if you do get one. We will also have to sign a FS for the same reasons.

I imagine right now he is a center for us, and Poles has a plan to pick up center in the draft, and then Bates competes with the rookie for center, and with the two guards too. I think Davis will be better this year, and I hope that Jenkins won't be injured, but I want a 3rd OG to compete with them. If he displaces them that's great, if he is a quality backup for when either are faltering, that's cool too. And he's insurance if it takes a minute for a rookie center to get up to speed. I talked about this exact move being a likely early one for Poles a few weeks ago. I didnt know the player, or that it would be a trade and not a free agent signing, but an obvious move is a decent but not break the bank center who can compete at guard as a precursor to taking a center (and/or guard) in the draft. Unless we also sign a guy like Cushenberry or anyone at the $10M+ level in free agency, I think you can take this as a strong signal that we are drafting a center this year. Maybe Sedrick Van Pran in the 3rd? If we do sign a big name center, then this guy moves right to competing at guard. Today he is our starting center, by September (or earlier) who knows.

ok, and Justin still sucks. no matter how flawed you are sure I am, Justin sucking has nothing to do with me. I could have never been born and Justin would still suck. And Caleb Williams would still be a star. I root for the team, not for a specific player.

I dont think Im smarter than them. I think this Justin Fields love thing has gotten completely out of control. I dont think all my opinions are gold - this isnt a character flaw or an ego problem. I'm not like this about everything I believe am I? So youre wrong about that too - it's just a cheap shot, since you have no real data. It's that I've watched the all 22 film, and you're telling me things I know just arent true. Youre saying 2+2=5 to me. You're telling me you love the king's new clothes. But I can see with my own eyes in completely clear ways that he is stark naked. You just cant let Justin go, and you're blaming me for that. Justin is not good. The numbers say it, the film says it, and the lack of high value trade offers from other teams say it. I don't know if Wannstedt has watched the all 22 film. I would bet he hasnt. But the GMs have. Where are the first round trade offers? Where are the 300 yard passing games? Where are the 4th quarter comebacks? Where are the consistent throws in tempo? Where is any kind of reliable passing in the middle of the field? Where is even reading defenses?! It's CUH-RAZY at this point. You are just a fan and you dont know what youre talking about. You dont even see throwing mechanics on film. You arent qualified to have an opinion which is why all you do is repeat others. And at this point the huge percentage of talking heads are agreeing with me too, but that doesnt sway you. Your old argument of authority is shrinking in number of names. But you dont even follow your own argument and just stick with the Justinmania. Youre wrong, and you cant admit it, and you think that means I have a problem LOL

Since we are all calling each other out now, I think we should all get on the record with what our position is on Caleb Williams. No one has a crystal ball, no one KNOWS - we know that, but if you had to bet, what's the most likely outcome for Caleb? Put yourself on the line and say what you think. I think Williams will take the Bears to multiple Superbowls, and end up in the Hall of Fame. Does that mean I know for a certainty that Williams wont get hit by a bus and never play football? Of course not. No one can predict the entire complex future. But if he goes to the Bears and plays, do you think he's gonna be bust, mediocre, great? Say it now, because I don't want to see you guys all on the Caleb Williams bandwagon when he takes us where we've never been before as an offense. Youll have to say that you were the ones who thought we shouldn't take WIlliams, and stay with Fields. And boy are you gonna feel dumb. "Walter Payton? A small school running back? No way, we have to take DE Mack Mitchell. Defense wins championships" and then sit there and watch 15 years of greatness and sweetness. Why? Because you can't let go of Fields in your mind. We are on the precipice of greatness and you're so distracted by a QB that never did anything to dominate. And you're gonna have to watch how Fields does in the next few years too. All you're gonna have is excuses why the Falcons or Steelers didnt give him what he needed. The train is leaving the station gents. Now is the time to get on board with the future of the franchise. Youre gonna love him, and youre gonna feel really bad that you didnt get excited when he came here. So what's your prediction we can put in a time capsule and revisit in 3 years? I put mine up there in the second paragraph.