BearFan PHX

you may well be right. he looks good from every angle. THe more I hear about and from him, the more convicned I am that he's the right move. But I cant help feeling some nagging feeling that somethings wrong, but I dont know where it's coming from. I have NOTHING to base it on. I dont care about the nails, in fact if he is different in some way, that could work as a chip on his shoulder and extra motivation if that's his character. I think the crying in his moms arms is a positive. Everything I see on tape looks incredible. The more i watch the more I think the common narratives about him are wrong. He plays in structure all the time. He makes fast decisive reads when they are there. His throwing motion is insanely fast and compact, like Marino. On the field, he is a rare specimen. His dad is being weird, but I don't even care about that. I like that he and they are competitive and want to milk the NFL for every penny they can get. I think he wants to win a lot of games. I think he wants to be the hero. You gotta love all that. So why do I have this weird feeling? Am I just scared something is too good to be true? Every other new Bears QB was a reach or they fell, and so I thought "wow we went up to grab Trubisky, or wow Justin fell to us!" this time you get your pick. Theyre all available to us. Maybe I'm just spooked by that. i dunno. But the more I research him, the more I try to disprove him watching film, the more he wins me over. It's possible that we are looking at the moment when everything changed for the Bears. This might be the next GOAT. It's exciting, and having had my Bears heart broken so many times before, maybe I'm just scared to believe. But even that is fading the more film I watch. Lets go. *also I havent seen enough film on Daniels, Maye and a couple others yet to be sure that one of them isn't even mightier, but Im not expecting that. Williams looks really really good.

yes, it does seem to be more his father than Caleb himself. But there were rumors flying around in November that Caleb didnt want to go to the Bears and that his father was seeking an ownership stake in whatever team drafted him. Thankfully neither is true, and Caleb does seem to be a good young man with his head on straight in his interviews. Ive still got lots of film to watch, but the more i watch on him, the more impressed I am with him.

that was an EXAMPLE of how to use the archive.is for ANY link. That wasnt a real link. It was directions for ANY link. "youcantreadthis" isnt a website, its a placeholder? Here is the real link to that article - nothing in it is new, thankfully its all rehashed from several months ago. https://archive.is/CfiZZ

heres a cool trick for articles on sites that you or we dont subscribe to. if the URL is (for example, this is not a real URL) http://www.youcantreadthis.com then add "archive.is/" after the "http://" and before the "www" so the new link would be http://archive.is/www.youcantreadthis.com and then you can read it without paying.

offenses would be sweating our sweaty duo.

finally! those cheesheads have NO idea how lucky they were to have those QBs, and how bad they choked not winning or going to more SBs with them. Brady and Mahomes were AFC too, so they should have been able to at least get there...

amen

there must be a way to make your point without being so argumentative in tone. I've never seen adam say a harsh word to anyone.

I feel like Brady nailed this. It's been a real problem for the Bears from Nagy through Getsy. Fields fans will appreciate this, and so will Fields detractors. It really fits the truth of our situation in Chicago, and shines a light on what is missing. It indicts the coaches and QBs both.

I don't think McCarthy has the physical traits the others have, but he only lost one game in college. The kid is a winner. Someone will take him and find out what he can do.

It's early for me to be sure what I think, but Maye may be the best QB in this draft. To get the best QB and pick up some extra picks would not suck.

Im still doing my homework, but maye looks pretty impressive, and some say he's the best of the crop. If he's evaluated as even as a prospect (different style but even) to Williams, then hell yeah take the picks and draft Maye. I just dont know what I really think about either of them yet.

I haven't done deep enough player evaluations to have an opinion on that, Im just saying generically, that LOT is a premium position, and if the draft falls in such a way that an excellent player at LOT is available, and that player grades out better than the players available at other positions, that having Braxton jones shouldnt prevent us from taking the player. Ditto at DE. If players of equal value are available, then you consider need. And i think part ot the issue is around words like "hole" or "need" so I think there are three tiers. 1) you have a premium player on the roster under long term contract = you dont draft another one. We all agree on that. 2) you have a gaping hole or need in the roster and an excellent prospect is available when you pick = you take them. We all agree on that too. 3) you have a decent player at that position, and an excellent prospect is available who grades more highly than any other available prospect and the player is at a premium position = you might still draft Braxton Jones' replacement (for example). I wont be shocked if the #9 pick goes to WR, TE or DE at all. but it might go to LOT if the right guy is there, and others arent. I dont think thats an immediate trade down. BUT if you have identified JPJ as a premium player, and you would take him at #9 if trade downs didnt exist, then yeah, sure, trade down to 15 or 20 and grab him. It'd be foolish not to get extra value if you could of course!

that is extremely clear, and it's what makes a winner too.

without addressing whether Poles keeps Justin or drafts a QB with a top pick, I think this approach is closer to what Poles should be doing. Having more players is not as preferable as having great players. We've been stuck with a limited roster for SO long that we are used to the idea of quantity over quality, but of course those players never achieve greatness and then youre stuck repeating yourself forever. When you take players, in free agency, trade and the draft who will be great, then your roster starts to fill. As that happens, you have fewer and fewer holes and then you're almost in trade UP territory. Of course players age out and you lose them to other teams as they want big paydays, so you never quite get to trading up, but the next equivalent is trading players away when they have one year left before their big deals. That keeps the draft pump primed, and allows you to continue the cycle of drafting talent rather than need in the top few rounds. So I agree with this way of thinking, even though I want a top rookie QB this year too.

so I agree in that hes not gonna draft a linebacker high. When a position is filled with a great player who is on a large long term contract, youre right that it would be nuts to draft talent at that position high. But, when you look at a guy like Braxton Jones, it's not a need, but neither is it a great player on a large long term contract. So what to call that? Not need, but still a key position you can draft if the right player falls and that's the BPA pick. Im not saying he'd choose an OT over a great WR or anything, certainly when players are evenly rated and both available, need plays a role. And also, the importance of the position does too. We NEED a center, and JPJ is a great prospect, but we wont likely draft him with pick #9 because center is not a key position the way left offensive tackle is. But if you reach to fill holes, thats how you squander draft value and end up with a subpar roster. Im guessing you agree with all of this, and it's about the word "need" more than anything else? Anyway this is why GMs usually sign free agents before the draft to fill "needs" not necessarily with the best players, and not necessarily on long term deals, but so that dont have to reach if the draft falls one way or another.

yeah, insane for sure.

sure, but as DABEARS just said so well, most years a QB like that isnt even available. And on the rare years one is, any given team likely doesnt have the pick to take them. But football IS the #1 team sport for sure. I just think there are lots of ways to build rosters, and only very rare chances to get a top 2 (in the league not the draft!) QB. Are any of those guys this year that guy? No one knows, but at best the scouts may be telling you that there is a decent chance Williams (or whoever) IS that guy, and a lottery ticket with even a 50% chance on a guy like that is worth buying at pretty much any cost. Especially when the cost doesnt come from your future, but just in missed opportunites for extra draft picks?

Oh for sure, most years there is no top 2 in the league QB in the draft! I just mean if Caleb Williams (or whoever) is that guy, and your scouts are SURE, theres still a 33% chance they will bust. But yes, most years there is not, I should have been clearer. But I also think unless you have one of those QBs, you arent realistically competing for a super bowl victory, so when (if) one comes along, and youre sold thats who he is likely to be, you gotta reach for it. And Im not even saying I think Caleb or anyone is that guy either. In a couple months I'll have my guess, but I dont even know what I think right now about any of them.

I think that a true top 2 in the league QB is worth whatever it takes. If I knew that Williams or Maye was one of those guys, I would easily walk away from the trade, or any trade unless it included a top 2 QB. Your point about now knowing is fair, but without a top 2 QB, youre not reliably and consistently going to the super bowl or winning it. So there is tremendous value in a 66% chance lottery ticket on a top 2 QB. You can build your team out all you like, but without one of those top QBs, youre just a playoff team, but not really in the hunt. So you cant win it all without one, or getting some stupid luck along the way, and you cant count on that, or repeat it. To me, as large a haul as that is, if you assume you need one of those QBs at any price, there are two reasons to trade the #1. 1) You dont think Williams or any rookie QB is a 66% chance to be a top 2 QB 2) You think more than one QB in this draft has a 66% chance to be a top 2 QB. and possibly 3) You think someone other than Williams is the one with the 66% chance to be a top 2 QB AND youre sure the team picking at #1 doesnt think the same. And that's a real gamble. But I dont believe in the plan of building a team around a lesser QB as a plan to consistently get to and win superbowls. Seven of the last ten superbowls were won by Mahomes or Brady. And one more by Peyton Manning. The two years a non top QB won the superbowl, only one beat one of the top QBs (Eagles beat Patriots) I think you can get lucky or unlucky in the league. Brady and Mahomes went/go to the superbowl consistently but not every year. If you build a team around a lesser QB, you might get lucky one year and miss having to face Mahomes. But that's not a plan. And honestly, thats less likely than that a QB you believe in and draft ends up a bust. It's much more likely that your super team with a lesser QB doesnt ever get you there and win it.

and it's all extremely valuable. the only thing more valuable would be a Tom Brady or Patrick Mahomes. Im not saying that's who WIlliams is. I have a lot of film to watch before i make my guess. But if he is, he is worth passing on the haul. And i wasnt making a purely financial argument. At the end of the day youre happy to pay players who excel and are young. Like Montez Sweat, or DJ Moore. You just dont want to be tied down long term with large contracts to players who are good but not great. But if they are great, then they are what the money is for.

exactly. these generic discussions about trading down or not dont make sense unless you plug in the players youre targeting. The trick is to only spend value on players that will be great for you. We used to sign free agents to try to compete each year, and in doing so, wed end up married to players for 4 years, when better options came along just a year later. Poles has been disciplined to avoid that. And drafting, at least int he top rounds, is the same thing. You dont draft holes, you draft talent. If a #1 pick QB is a Mahomes, he's worth more than any trade package offered. If not, then you blew the chance to get players with all those picks in a trade. Neither answer is right or wrong, depending on how your picks turn out. It's a good point you make about spreading the risk around. The more swings you get, the more chances you have to hit the ball - but you dont get multiple swings at a top QB. It all comes down to what your scouts and research tell you about the players. If Williams or Maye is who some say they are, then you gotta take em, and if not, youd better not take em.

I just keep getting hard on pills ads. hmmm LOL Im kidding of course, but the ads do suck. I could re-engage my adblocker, but then it wont load tweets that people paste.

i think Poles has shown he doesnt draft for need. He has been disciplined to wait the requisite years to fill out the roster. The previous Bears GMs were always about filling holes. We'd sign someone to a high contract, or draft someone high, and they would be overvalued because of need. We'd end up married to a 75%er for four years. Poles knows that when you find the right player at the right point in their career, you pay them what they are worth, but you cant reach because you have a hole and are thinking about this year only. Claypool is a perfect example of why not to do that. So I think Poles takes value at the #9 pick, regardless of players he may have on cheap deals who are doing OK. If that means OT, then so be it. It sure doesnt rule out the top WRs ot Bowers either. It just depends who falls to us.

I think we need help at a lot of positions, and there are lots of ways to get help; trade, free agency, the draft. So your question, which non QB should we get in the top of the first round, is about finding value at KEY positions, that you dont have to overpay for like you do in free agency or the draft. So before I look at team needs, or even the Bears at all, the answers to that question are always the same: QB, Edge, Left Offensive Tackle and game changing impact players (who are rare) and any position. Usually that last part means WR or TE. Those are the generic values by position. So for example, if JPJ is going to be the best center that ever played the game, you still don't draft him in the top 5 picks. He's trending like he's gonna go around pick #20, which means he's a hell of a prospect at center. But I cant think of any center who can take over a game. They can do a lot, but for example, you dont normally think of a LB being able to take the team on his shoulders the way a championship QB does - but Ray Lewis did. But even still you wouldnt put non-edge LB in the top 10 of most drafts. It'd take a very rare player to do that. So I think the answers in this draft at #9 are QB (probably not the 9 pick! and outlawed by your rule here anyway), LOT, DL (could be edge could be 3T), WR and possibly Bowers too. If you stack all of those up, you get a choice of at least a few of them at 9. The way you listed it makes perfect sense, but add in the LOTs, and the edge rushers you mention later, and then you've got your full list. That's my answer anyway.