BearFan PHX

its good because they know it, and its good because they can help teach other guys in positional meetings.

I could be wrong, but I think compensatory picks happen when you lose more and better free agents than you sign. Poles is setting up a system where we will have lots of young players, and if we do well we wont be able to keep them all. So you trade away GOOD players a year before their big payday for extra draft capital, and if you can't find willing partners for that, then they become free agents and you lose them and get compensatory picks. Teams that chase winning today who dont have the roster to sustain that are the ones who sign more free agents than they lose - that's been us. I think starting next year or the year after, we will see this for the Bears. Trading good players away (probably to the chagrin of many members of this board who are overly loyal to current players) and letting free agents walk will get us that increased draft capital in trades and compensatory picks. Then we will be set up in a system that sustains itself. poles has done really well creating this, especially having the balls to tank the 2022 year which was the only way to get here.

right - develop players, sign some, trade the others a year before the big deal. Effectively, it becomes almost like a college program, and thats when your position coaches become so important.

It's all been a BIG secret. Poles always knew he wanted to keep Fields, and Fields knows how to read defenses and everything, they just hid it all because theyre playing long term poker. If they can just confuse the league into thinking Fields is terrible then everyione will be really surprised when suddenly he's awesome. Strategery!

dodged a bullet on that one.

^5 - i think once we get past this logjam, things will get easier on this board. I think poles brings in his guys that make sense and everything works. Right now were kind of at a trouble spot that has to do with high picks that didnt work out, or didnt work out as well as planned, or because they didnt have the right tools around them etc. Whatever it is, we should be in the Poles' flow by this year or next.

Oh I thought this was a threaded group discussion. So much to learn!

I agree that Williams commands a higher price. Just for info sake, here's the chart breakdown. Pick #1 is worth 1,000 points Pick #2 = 717 points Pick #36 = 104.4 points (821.4 rolling total) Pick #40 = 96.8 points (918.2 rolling total) Pick #67 = 58 points (976.2 rolling total) so Dav could still get 23.8 points just to make it even. Pick #111 (middle 4th round) is worth 23.9 points and your right that Williams would command more. I dont think another first would be too much at all in this case. if it was say, pick #5 (worth 428 points on the year you use it) you'd value it as a round lower, so you'd use 5th pick 2nd round to value it which is only another 102.4 points. Not outrageous at all. And of course you know, if I was the Commanders and had to pay #2, #36, #40, #67, #111 and next year's first, I'd do it in a heartbeat for Williams, which is why I wouldn't make that trade from our side even with the extra first. If Williams turns out to be "generational" he'd easily be worth 6 or more first rounders, so what is a 50% shot (lets say) on getting that worth?

Here are the only non Poles acquisitions left on the team: Justin Fields Khalil Herbert Teven Jenkins Jaylon Johnson Cole Kmet Darnell Mooney (?) You can see how he feels about Herbert as a starter since he just signed a starter ahead of him. Teven is good when healthy, but you can imagine him being replaced for next year, this is the last year of his rookie deal. Johnson and Kmet played themselves into big contract extensions. I have no idea what the disposition of Mooney is right now. And then there is Justin.

That's because we are (or were) bad. Good teams cant afford to keep all their players because together they're worth more than the salary cap. We cleared the bench of a lot of the players that Poles didnt bring here. There are only a few of them left now. (cough) When our rookies from the last couple of years grow up, we wont be able to keep them all either but it'll be ok if we dont emotionally hang on to them too long, and let them go when they still have trade value. usually a year before a big payday. A few players you keep no matter what they cost, top of that being QB since its the most important position on the team - get that right, and youre in it as the players around you come and go.

yeah, he'll be ready for another payday in 4 years, and I predict we keep him 3 and then trade him. That's what the good teams do, keep the young players coming through the pipeline and get trade value when they go because they still have value when you trade them. And I think you and I agree on that?

I dont want the Bears to take Caleb because of the media LOL It's because I watched him play. He's great - I'd love to have a great QB.

Pix, Im just not gonna fight with you. When youre nice to me, I respond the same. Youre in control of the tone of your own words, and Im gonna stop even explaining it. Its your choice, and honestly whichever way you go is fine. And Ill just be symmetrical. Im SO sick of talking about this. Whatever you need dude, I wont bother explaining it anymore.

no, because you say "we KNOW you think that obviously" in a sarcastic way to indicate that youre sick of reading it over and over like its too much. And that's fine - theres lots of shit talk on here. feel free, but then you pretend youre not LOL

smart.

Id say he is a 4. As Ive said to anyone that will listen, over and over, he is an incredible runner in the open field, he has a really strong arm and can make all the throws. He also doesnt play in structure, cant read defenses, is one dimensional and NFL defenses cheat him because they know he wont punish them for it. Thats what makes him "garbage" (your word not mine) - he's like a rock paper scissors player that cant choose scissors. He might be great at rock and paper, but all you have to do is throw paper, and he cant win. His talents are diminished and negated by two things: 1) he is now told to slide in the open field instead of putting moves on defenders so he doesnt get hurt, which is smart. 2) he cant read defenses, play in structure and throw in tempo So until he does #2 consistently, defenses will use guys from the middle to clog running lanes and he is finished. Rock, Rock, Paper, Rock. Im gonna keep playing paper. You cant stop me until you learn to throw scissors, and you cant. Therefore, while he is a 4, he has 0 chance of winning a superbowl for us, so his VALUE to us is 0 *IF* you want to win a SB. If you just want to cheer and watch highlights, Justin is awesome. You're so mad at me. Its silly.

oh thats true, but what I said here was that the league doesnt value him, not what I think about him. And it was a response to your argument that the others got signed because there was no draft capital involved. Because you like Fields as a QB. Yes, we get it. Believe me, we all know! i.e. it's ok for me to stay in the discussion just like you. But to the POINT, every year around this time, teams spend draft capital to trade for players. So that's not it. They just don't want Justin at any kind of price that values him, or they'd have made moves for him.

yeah, except if people thought Justin was great, theyd have been willing to spend more and hed be signed.

I think it would be a mistake, but as long as you draft Caleb, it's not a fatal mistake. I could live with it. I just think it will make problems. I've surely been saying, I dont like Fields as a QB and I dont want him on the team, but it isnt getting rid of Fields that is so necessary, it's getting that rookie QB that is. I still dont think they keep Fields, but as long as they draft that guy, fine.

ok well I cant really debate what you said. youre certainly right that she probably doesnt have her finger on the deep pulse. Im not putting her forward as any kind of expert, but i do think she got a sense of the general feeling about Fields. The only reason i used her as an example the other day was to say that im not the only one who thinks it's obvious that Justin isnt great. I think outside of Chicago a lot of people think that. So her strong reaction to not even believing the question was real I thought was an example of that, but certainly not that everything she says is gold or anything like that. Youre right that we are both speculating. i cant argue that. I do think if Poles doesnt draft a rookie QB high in this draft it will be a huge mistake. Trading from #1 to #2 for some reason I dunno. I like Williams the best, but if they take someone else, i will watch more film on them. If they just roll with Fields though, that's not gonna work out. I am morally certain of it.

right - too rich. Im happy with the guy weve got even though we will probably have to draft his replacement next year.

all she did there was pass on that the other person had said that. Do you think when she says she went to the combine and met with GMs and NFL people and asked them and then said what they told her, that she was lying? Again, she didnt ask teams that are in this game, she asked league wide. The market for Justin is weak. To think otherwise youd have to think that a bunch of teams REALLY want Fields bad, but are holding back to get the lowest price while these teams are signing QBs before Fields. So if they wanted Fields, why didnt they trade for him?

nope LOL I think there are a few on this board deep in the JF Kool Aid, but reality is pretty apparent to the rest.

I totally understand you, and you and i both agree on things like how important a good OL is etc. We really are aligned on that. The only difference we have is that I think it's all exhibition unless you have that world beater QB. I think without one, you can be a playoff team, and possibly sneak into a superbowl victory with a lot of luck, mostly relating to the leagues world beater QB not making it that year, but unless youve got that guy at QB, you're not realistically in the hunt. And I think most years there just isnt one available. And every now and then one does come along, and usually your team isn't in position to get them. But right now, we have a shot at one. Now I cant say he IS one of course, i agree with you again there, but I think he has a good chance to be one, and so you gotta take a swing at it. None of that defeats anything you say about building a roster either, although I think Poles is well on his way to that, and by September you might even be happy with the state of the offensive roster too. I expect another free agent OL, and either a stud LT or a stud WR (or Bowers) with the #9 pick. probably an interior rookie OL to compete with what we've got too. We added a running back today too, so the 2024 Bears QB should have a lot of support.

no you dont understand. GMs of teams NOT in the hunt for a QB give their opinions on Fields off the record. Multiple reporters said when they asked around that was the prevailing sentiment on Fields. I wouldnt ask Washingtons Gm for example, but you could ask the Chiefs GM that question. The thing is, you only care about facts that support your narrative. Thats why youre so confused about all of this - youre not thinking it through, youre just reaffirming your own bubble.