BearFan PHX

I think he means 2nd QB taken in that draft?

Im not sure that a rookie wont be better than Justin has been, but I like the way you put this, so even IF the rookie has growing pains by year two it'll be worth it.

I think this is right.

it's a huge difference, and a good lesson in why you dont wait too long for something youre not seeing on the field. I think Fangio let him freelance and he got lucky, or maybe his natural instincts just worked with that scheme. I dunno. i cant imagine he forgot how to run the plays, who to cover etc, but he seems to have done just that. Or he was always a gambler, and he had a lucky streak and then an unlucky one? Whatever it is, we wont be spending big money on it. And also, i tend to deal with these players on here like they are Madden personas, and it should be said that Eddie Jackson is a person too, and probably a very good one. And while it sucks to lose your slot as a starter or in the league, he will leave with a ton of cash, and some amazing memories. Look at Mitch Trubisky. His NFL dreams never really took hold. We can call him a bust or a loser. But at the same time, he has career earnings of $46 Million dollars, and is probably worth $15M and has a knockout gorgeous wife. So if ya get in the game, it's rough, but probably worth it. See ya around Eddie Jackson.

In some ways, Jackson was the Fields of the defense. Everyone liked him, his best season was in the past, and all his big plays came off of making plays rather than playing in structure. BOth are said to need schemes around them that are tailored to their improvisational instincts. To be fair, a FS can generally freelance more than a QB in a typical scheme, but Jackson was really undisciplined, and also unlike Fields, he made a lot of really bad plays that cost us while he was freelancing. Jackson played himself off the team.

well said, good points.

it's both. You need a great QB, and you need to protect him. And ideally, you build the line first, but I dont see where we are likely to have a choice of QB like we do now. Wright is looking great. Between Jenkins and Davis you have like 1.25 good starting OGs. So add another OG to the mix to compete and eventually replace one. We will absolutely address center this year. So are we talking about another OT? If we draft Williams and then an OT with pick #9 then that's not still insane is it? So maybe the argument should be "not upgrading the OL would be insane" and I dont think youre wrong about that at all.

well deserved, each. https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nfl/news/nfl-hall-fame-inductees-2024-pro-football-hof-class/34a23115294f8f7ee25d69c1

I have similar concerns about Williams, and my favorite outcome would be if we found that we liked Maye (or whoever) just as much as Caleb. Then we could pick up some extra picks, and still get our guy. I do worry that Williams may be telling the Bears through back channels that he doesnt want to go there. I heard his camp say "Caleb doesnt want to be the bad guy" and poles wouldnt want to be beaten publicly by Williams, so there is a mutual interest in making it look like we moved off of Williams because we wanted to. And unless we take Williams with the #1 pick, we will never know exactly what happened. But if we have Maye or other QBs evenly rated with Williams, since there is so much unknown in the draft, why not take the extra picks. If we'd let Mahomes fall to us, even if we thought Trubisky would be better, we'd have gotten lucky, for example. But on the other hand, if everything is telling them Caleb is that guy, we gotta just take him. All that said, I do believe there are multiple intriguing prospects in this years draft. It's a very complicated question!

me too! and also that whatever choice they make doesnt damn them to QB hell in the foreseeable future. Whatever we do, if we get it wrong, it'll be a while before we could have a #1 pick again, and we'd be replacing that QB with the 2nd or 3rd rated QB in the draft most likely without a #1 pick. And we've been in that hell for many decades. The only ways out are to 1) tank hard (which you cant do for years with this defense) 2) trade future first rounders to move up IF the team at #1 doesnt want to just stay and take their 1st choice of QB 3) pay huge for a free agent ala Cutler, and they are never the best guy in the NFL either. This is our shot right here, and that's reason alone to move on from Justin. This opportunity wont come again for a long time.

I hear your logic. I dont think the light is ever going to come on for Fields, but if you think it's a good possibility, (and youre not alone in that), then cool. But just consider that if you're wrong in that, we dont sniff the #1 pick again, and are doomed to hell until the defense fades and we can win fewer than 3 games. Last time we had to strip the roster to get here. So thats many years off. On the other hand, if you draft a rookie and they do OK it doesnt really matter if Juston goes and balls out somewhere else - then youre still on schedule and can build around the rookie QB. I do know how seductive that treasure trove thats offered form #1 is, but then again there is someone who cant wait to pay it because they think Caleb is worth more. And if he IS the guy they say, then hes worth a LOT more. (or some other top QB if you prefer) But even if you trade down a few slots and take a Maye or Daniels or whatever, youve got a rookie deal window, and a top first round pick QB to work with. And there is less risk in that, than there is in developing Justin who has 3 years on film against NFL defenses not seeing the WRs. I believe that from where Im standing right now, there's a 1 in 3 chance that if we draft Caleb, he will be a HOF QB and win multiple superbowls for us. 1/3 HOF & SBs, 1/3 serviceable top 10 QB in the league, 1/3 bust. I think you gotta punch that ticket or have a really compelling reason not to, and two extra first round picks isnt it for me. I dont see 2 extra first rounders taking us to SB wins. Not like a franchise type QB can. But if you think Caleb will bust, and Justin will flourish, then obviously everything Ive just said doesnt mean much. But I think there are more winning outcomes with a rookie QB than with Justin, and the stakes are so high this year.

well said.

Because Williams is looking for deeper routes to come open, and Fields takes the ball down and runs. When Fields doesnt pull the trigger on his first read, he usually bails and then improvises. if he throws after that, it's not at the break point of a route, but free form sandlot stuff. Which is fun to watch with NFL level players. When Williams isn't taking his first read, it's because he is looking for a homerun throw. Not done looking at the play, but being too greedy; waiting for the longest route to reach its break. Not giving up on the routes as designed altogether. The difference is Williams is still in structure at that point, and Fields has already broken the play.

You're right that you dont want to get financially over your skis until you're in a superbowl contending phase. But I think every GM has a generic cap allocation map based on positions. Probably two of them, one with a rookie deal QB and another with a top vet QB deal. And I think you want to be disciplined and not overspend for guys unless they fit your ideals. Poles has done a great job of that. But when you find that guy who is the right fit for one of your important positions you spend the money because that's who you were saving it for anyway. What you want to avoid is spending your full position allotment on a guy who is just a 75%er just because they were the best available free agent. And the reason is that you marry these guys for at least four years, and you want to make sure he's your best option for the forseeable future, not just this one offseason. We've done too much of that over our crappy years. So in general, I think you're right, and Poles has been disciplined and wont break the bank just because he can, but whenever the right player becomes available, all bets are off, because you had space in your plan for a true stud at that position all along, and here is the opportunity? I havent particularly identified anyone in specific for that scenario in this years free agent group, but they could come in trade too and not be on that list.

Ah, ok Im hearing you more clearly now. I would assume that if Waldron thinks he can unlock Justin, that we might well be keeping Fields. Of course i think that'd be a mistake, but your point is a fair one. If there are teams that would take a flyer on Fields, then why couldnt Poles do that too. And for sure i am not really in the business of predicting what Poles WILL do, just what I think he SHOULD do. I dont claim a crystal ball at all. I do think I can guess at Fields' ceiling now, but not at Poles' choice. So we dont disagree about that point you made. Also, to the point of drafting a QB and keeping Justin, I'm not a fan (I'll say why in a sec), but I realize that if they do that, and even if Im right about Fields, the damage isn't fatal. We'd still have our rookie, and we'd move ahead on schedule. So to me the critical move is to get the rookie. keeping Fields would only be a small problem in my opinion. To me, you take the rookie QB and then you have a vet who mentors the rookie, and keeps the seat warm until the rookie is ready. We've done that with Mike Glennon and Andy Dalton. i think people didnt realize that their role was to be replaceable. We paid them a lot of money, but if you want to pay a fighter to go down int he 3rd round, that costs, and these guys knew their roles. But I dont see Fields as filling that role at all. First off hes not a master of reading NFL defenses, so he cant really mentor the rookie. He doesnt model discipline in structure. Also there is a question of the offensive scheme. Some say that the key to getting the most out of Fields is to make an offense just for him. But if you do that, is it the same offense youre asking the rookie to learn? Will it be the best offense for them to thrive? So, for example, if you take Maye, youre probably building a pocket passing offense. So if we keep Fields to run that offense until the rookie is ready, it seems like it's gonna be messy. And if you tailor the offense to Fields, then what is Maye learning? But as long as we get a rookie QB who is projected to be a starter for us, so a top candidate, we can survive whatever goes on with Fields. So I started leaving that scenario in my comments because my fear is really about skipping getting a rookie QB. Poles could "make a mistake" in my opinion and keep Fields, but if he drafts a rookie QB too, then it's not a fatal mistake. But I believe that if we dont take a top rookie QB, and stick with Fields, it'll kill the window we created with the 2022 tank season and it all falls apart in a couple years when these defensive players all come up for new contracts. To the point about Geno Smith, I'd just say that if it was common for reclamation QB projects to work out, wed see a lot more of it. If something is only 5% likely, it means you can find examples to cite, but 19 times out of 20 you lose the bet. It's that POSSIBLE vs LIKELY thing again.

LOL If Fields could read defenses at even just a pretty good level, his running would put him over the top and he'd be a top 5 QB. No doubt a QB with legs adds a whole other dimension to what the defense has to defend against, which should make the passing easier! But without the core competency, it just doesnt work. It'd be like having a running back who was a genius at cutting and breaking tackles, but just couldnt run forward at all. Without the core skill, the additional ones arent enough. Now I hear that some people think a new coach and situation will unlock that. And if they do, he will be a really good QB. I just dont personally see the film that shows me it's in there. It was his #1 weakness coming out of college too. But, someone is gonna bet a 2nd or 1st rounder that they can unlock him, and if they do, it will be a huge upside for them if they succeed. I just wouldnt bet on it myself. I think it is really unlikely.

I hear ya. I was kind of thinking that there are a number of names that look good to me at that #9 spot, but if you or the Bears have their eye on a particular player, then by all means, I wouldnt let a possible 4th rounder stand in the way of that.

If Atlanta wants Justin and is willing to provide that much draft capital, Id prefer not to swap #9 with #8 and make them make change another way, like a 4th rounder.

A scientist gathers data and draws conclusions. A lawyer starts from a conclusion and then looks for data to support it.

it feels like youre trying to say that youve caught me in some inconsistency. But this is the same thing Ive been saying all along. It is POSSIBLE that a new coach will unlock Fields, he has talent, but based on years of film going back to college, he continually displays a huge hole in his game which is a fatal flaw so I dont believe it is LIKELY. Thats not a contradiction. it's just the truth of the matter. But more to the point, why are we trying to prove each other wrong, rather than discussing football?

20 is generally too early to take a center, but its where im seeing that JPJ guy going in some updated mocks. But you said take best OL avail, so if its an OT or OG thats cool too. Plus we dont even know yet what we're gonna get in free agency. Maybe by the draft some more positions on the OL will be filled.

Yeah I have since found it on youtube, and he was very confident in his voice. and he said that all you need is two teams that want him to bring the price to that level, and of course thats right. Another first round pick is greatly welcome! Maybe we could get that center near pick #20 or so if its not a high pick. Bears offseasons have felt like video games the last couple of years!

theres a difference between the #1 overall pick, and a first rounder. If that's what you were saying? to the point of whether Justin sucks or not, I think we all know he is a tremendous athlete. He has a GREAT arm. He's accurate, throws the long ball. Hes a hard worker, a great leader, he improvises really well. Hes exciting to watch and sells tickets. All that is true and those are reasons why other teams may wish to try to make a reclamation project out of Justin. And we also know that Justin has a big shortcoming in that he doesn't read defenses well, doesn't pull the trigger on open receivers and does most of his best work after he's broken the play and is improvising. Somewhere there are coaches that think they can break him of that habit. I doubt anyone thinks they are going to win a superbowl with Fields unless he does fix those issues. But Nagy couldn't unlock him, and lost his job. Getsy couldn't unlock him and did lose his job. Eberflus almost (perhaps) lost his job too. That's why he sucks, and why he is interesting to some teams. It's why some people want to trade him and others want to keep him. It isnt that one or the other is wrong, theyre both true. But you know all of this of course already.

WOW. If that happens then someone is definitely putting their money where their mouth is on Justin. I guess you would need to have two teams that felt that way, because if it was only one, then the price wouldnt go up to a first. That's very good news. I wonder where he will land.

that's extremely interesting. do you know where he said it? id love to hear it in context. He's usually right and doesnt just put out rumors.