BearFan PHX

I agree with this. I also think there is some chance that Williams really doesnt want to go to Chicago, but doesnt want to be hated, so he quietly tells Poles this, and Poles wouldnt want it to be known that he wasnt powerful enough to force Williams to play, so he'd keep it a secret too. If we dont draft him, Im going to wonder if that was it as well. And I suppose you could count that as something in his character, so it also agrees with what you said. But for example, I never thought anything was wrong with Eli's character, but he did the same thing, and in retrospect, it turns out to have been the right move for him.

I agree with most of this, except that Williams deosnt get the ball out quickly. there are dozens of plays on film where he gets it out just like Daniels. He reads progressions and makes quick decisions in tempo, with a lighting release too. What he ALSO does is extend time in the pocket and look for homeruns too much. that's what skewed that Time To Throw stat. Not an indecisiveness or inability to play in structure. Then again, if I won every game when my defense defense held the opponent under 35 points, and still lost a bunch ,of games Id be looking for lots of home runs too. As for Daniels' accuracy, look at the Warner tape, his ball location has a lot of issues. He has two first round WRs on his team I guess is the answer? Williams definitely has more to learn in the NFL, but he is more NFL ready than anyone ive seen since Luck.

for sure. He's clearly not like Justin in that way, and Justin was an awesome, humble, one of the guys teammate. I suspect Williams to be more like Jordan, Brady, Rodgers etc - arrogant, overcompetitive, brutal in the pursuit of winning. ANd if he is a GOAT that will be fantastic. But if he is an average QB that kind of attitude will wear thin for sure. But then again if we thought he was gonna be average, we wouldnt be picking him. I hope he grows into his potential, and if he is a Los Angeles jerk of a star, I'll enjoy the Lombardi trophies LOL

its a matter of degree. you cant just equivocate that easily. I would say Warner is more lukewarm on Williams than JT OSullivan for example. I enumerated each play for Daniels, so if you want to argue that Daniels is better, then please tell me which plays you disagree with? I dont mean that sarcastically, I mean it for real. And do you see Williams being so inaccurate? He misses on a couple deep balls and sometimes when hes on the run, but generally Williams accuracy is superior. Also, Williams is moving his head and making reads, where Daniels seldom does. And Williams has an amazing compact release I haven't seen since Marino, and he manipulates the pocket like Rodgers.

Here's a prediction: Bears take Williams Commanders take Maye (unless they take Daniels) Patriots take McCarthy (unless Maye is there) Vikings trade up to 4, 5 or 6 to take Daniels (unless Maye is there) bad scenario: Vikings end up taking Penix

exactly. and no one he played with will be selected above the 3rd round in the draft. Also to the vaporous rumors about Williams' negative character, since there was never any substance that came out about them, couldnt it have been disinformational rumor seeding by Washington? I think Greg Gabriel got paid some money by Washington to seed this. And before you say that's paranoid I have heard several commentators say that they know reporters do this for money and for the guarantee of scooping breaking stories in the future from the same GM. Additionally I know of at least one pundit who says he was approached and offered money to do it. Greg Gabriel lost his inside source in Cliff Stein and was facing having no pipeline for info which is death for a pundit. So he makes a deal with Washington's GM to seed bad info about Caleb, possibly to shake him free to get to pick #2. And if he ends up screwing the Bears in the process why wouldnt he? Greg Gabriel is a stooge. Screw that guy.

OK. Kurt Warner has released his Jayden Daniels breakdown. I watched the first half of it, and wrote down what I saw for each play, timestamped so people can see what I mean and rebut it. What I saw was a LOT of 1 WR reads. I was also surprised to see terrible ball placement often. Daniels slipped even lower in my eyes as a result of this video. He seems to throw to his primary receiver whether they are open or not a lot, and rarely looks off safeties or makes progression reads. For the purpose of this I am calling every target "WR" and the number after refers to their progression order. So WR1 would be the first read WR etc. 0:55 Locks on to WR1 all the way. WR1 is open. Ball comes out fast, but bad ball placement. Incomplete. 1:50 Locks on to WR1 all the way. WR1 is open. Ball comes out fast. Touchdown. 2:38 Locks on to WR1 all the way. WR1 is open. Ball comes out fast, but bad ball placement. Incomplete. Same play as 0:55, same error, same result. Staring down WR is giving DB lead time to break on the ball. 3:17 Slight safety lookoff early, then locks onto WR1 long enough to draw DB attention. WR1 is double covered, and WR2 is open. Ball comes out late to WR1, almost intercepted. Incomplete. Very similar to 1:50 - is he actually reading defenses, or just throwing to the primary receiver every time? And having deceptive good stats because his WRs were good and often open? 5:04 Locks on to WR1 all the way. (yes it's a TE or back, I'm gonna call every target WR in this) WR1 is open. Ball comes out fast. 8 yd completion 5:59 Locks on to WR1 all the way. WR1 is open. Ball comes out fast, but bad ball placement. Incomplete. Should have been a completion for a 1st down. But it was 4th down. Turnover on downs. 6:41 WR1 is not open. Other WRs are open late. Daniels looks around a bit, then runs. My claim is that when the primary receiver isn't open, Daniels runs. He does look around a bit first here, but rarely finds a second read in the pocket. Daniels scrambles, and makes something happen late outside the pocket out of structure. Terrible ball placement, excellent catch. 23 yd completion. 9:13 WR1 is covered. Daniels looks around. Finds a second read. WR2 is wide open. Terrible ball placement. Almost intercepted. Incomplete. 10:27 Locks on to WR1, his eyes draws safety so WR1 is covered. Has other options but doesnt see them. Tries to run. Sack or short gain. 12:01 WR1 is covered. Quick progression read from WR2 to WR3. Ball is out fast. 10 yd gain. This is what you want to see in terms of reading progressions. Excellent play. 13:03 Locks on to WR1 all the way. WR1 is open. Ball out fast with good placement. 7 yd gain. 13:30 Locks on to WR1. WR1 is covered. Reads to outlet receiver. Ball out fast with good placement. 25 yd gain. Easy play, but executed well. 14:11 Locks on to WR1 all the way. Ball is out fast, but terrible placement. Incomplete. 14:52 Locks on to WR1 all the way. Ball is out fast with good placement. 10+ yard gain. 15:13 Locks on to WR1 all the way. Ball is out fast with terrible placement. WR1 was open. Had no chance to make a play. Possible WR1 ran bad route. Incomplete. 16:32 Reads 2 WRs, ball is out fast with good placement. Bad read, almost intercepted, but threads the needle. Touchdown. Figured I'd end on a "good" play. Warner is saying the same things I am. If you hate me, but love Warner, then just accept it because he said it. The fact that I agree doesn't make him wrong?

well said. I think a lot of the analysis that goes on is based on physical skills, and I think I tend to (also) look for being a football player. Yeah I saw that! Caleb did it too right next to him. They are both great. I have Caleb ahead because of his processing, but Maye is definitely my #2. I have some negatives on Maye too, but I'm not looking to crap on him. He could well have a good NFL career. But to me, Williams is in a tier above Maye.

I gotta say when people just say "soandso says [QB] is good/bad" it just goes right past me, but when someone makes a claim about a specific part of a players game or skill set, and I havent looked closely at that, it often makes me go searching to learn more, and sometimes change my mind too.

Based on this comment, I went searching. I had thought that Daniels had the strongest arm based on some nice passes I'd seen, but i totally admit I hadn't really done any kind of formal comparison, or counting yards on long throws etc. I still think Daniels may have the most accurate arm, but I did find this, which bolsters what you're saying. They rate the QBs on different attributes, and give a number rating to arm strength. I dont know who they are, it was just the first thing I found on google. Apparently they do next gen stats like PFF. Not saying their product is any better than PFF, just that they are a custom stat group. They claim that Joe Milton has the strongest arm of the class - which I believe having seen his insane throws at the combine. You were there, was it nuts? Anyway they give Milton an 8 score for arm strength. They give Maye and Williams each a 7, and Daniels a 6. So I just wanted to thank you for the factual rebuttal, and share what I found so far about it. https://www.the33rdteam.com/2024-nfl-draft-ranking-7-strongest-arms-in-this-years-qb-class/

fair. and Im not going to criticize any QB for taking his first read if it is open. And Daniels does deliver the ball quickly when he does. So that's a plus too. But when you keep watching you see he doesnt make multiple reads, or look off safeties, and locks in on his primary read. Then he either throws it to them, or runs. The end result is a lot of good completions to primary receivers, which looks good, but the deeper meaning is that he will have to grow a LOT to make it work in the NFL.

I was saying "almost never" and I used the word "never" and then followed it with (seldom?) to mean that i dont actually mean mathematically never, just really rare. I wrote it exactly as I meant it. It isnt a typo, and it doesnt mean I think the words mean the same thing. It meant that I was tipping my hat to the fact that I was using the word never in a slang way and not a mathematical one. Thank you for watching tape AND saying which game it was, I will watch it too - if you share a link we can watch the same film.

Interesting take re: Thomas. There is definitely a logic to it.

they paid him a lot of money for a fashion shoot and gave him clothes to wear. he doesnt just walk around like that. If GQ tells you to do something for a cover, a lot of stars would do it. But even if he dresses like a woman, I dont care . I love Dennis Rodman too. He just needs to be a great QB. Thats all that matters.

you gotta be kidding. immediately after using the word "never" I followed it with "(seldom?)" And yes, when a QB stares down the reciever you can see it. When he turns his head to look around you can see that too. Watch the film, youll see.

I havent paid attention to the D Line at all yet. Are there any 3Ts worthy of the #9 pick? Whos the best fit for us?

If we take one of the big three WRs at pick 9, Odunze, Nabers or MHJr, they might technically be WR3 on this squad, but they are future #1 or co #1 WRs with Moore. If you just want to win this year, DE or DT is a clear answer, but if youre building a squad and a WR group for Williams to be in sync with for years, then a WR is just as valuable, and it just depends on how you have the players graded out. Dont sleep on an OT either, even though its a short term lesser need. If you end up with Alt on Williams left, that definitely does things for you offense for the next 15 years that would be amazing. And OL is so important too. So again, I dont think its so much about position as it is just the specific ratings you have on each player. And it would be really hard for any of us to look at film and then try to say whether Nabers or Alt is the better player. I can possibly compare players at the same position, but that kind of draft room thinking between positions is pretty high level and wed need many hours to be able to even come up with a way of rating and ranking all that. And likely wed be worse than PFF at it, and they have a lot of resources, and they are still terrible at it too. LOL

he just got a lot of polish and potential. in the NFL he isn't anything at all yet for sure. But he does more mental quarterbacking than you usually see in guys coming out of college. And that's rare like once in a decade type. And some guys who arent there grow in the NFL and become that. And some guys bust. But he's a pretty good bet based on what you can see of him. Theres a reason they are using that word, even though it's too much I agree.

depth and also enough CYA players so that he can pick talent and not be stuck having to address every position. It depends on whether youre trying to win this year, or consistently going forward. If you need to win this year, WR just became less important in the draft. But if you're trying to build a roster for the long run, Allen has a one year deal and is over 30, and it could be the perfect situation to bring a young talented WR in to to learn under Moore and Allen. Allen possibly leaves next year, or maybe the year after, and a young Odunze, Nabers or whoever is ready to step in. But if you really love Bowers or Alt and they drop, given the way the roster is right now, it'd be ok to wait for next year to get the WR if you have an OT, DL Bowers etc more highly rated and they are there. That's the second benefit of these depth players. If one of them has to actually play, it could be OK. Ditto for injuries.

Yes. But the crossers aren't primary reads. But even if they were, that was an example of Williams looking around, reading more than one receiver. Daniels never (seldom?) does that. A very fair criticism of Williams is that he will have to learn not to be so greedy and take what the NFL defenses give him, and just move the chains instead of looking for a home run all the time. But he was definitely looking off safeties and swivelling his head around in the pocket looking at various receivers as their routes came open. And there is a time to run and create too. Williams, Daniels and Fields all do that well. But my point is that Daniels never looks away from his primary read. Remember when Mitch was doing that early on and throwing interceptions? Every QB has to learn not to stare down the primary receiver in the NFL. And Im not saying Daniels cant learn that, just that right now, he doesn't the way Williams, Maye and McCarthy do. He has a better arm than any of them though in terms of strength AND accuracy. This isnt player love or player hate, they all have plusses and minuses, and projecting them into the NFL and what they can learn there is certainly a guess. But you can see Williams is NFL ready, and Daniels isn't in terms of processing and reading. Honestly, Daniels is a lot like Justin. All that good stuff, and processing problems. But they are different too, when the first route is open Daniels rips it in tempo. He just doesnt ever go to a second read when it isnt, he runs, and he stares down the #1 route. But he could learn to overcome that, some do some dont. If you watch the film, you see that it's not like Justin, holding the ball 3 seconds consistently. Instead it's a lot of fase ball out quick reads, and some instances of manipulating the pocket like Rodgers does and holding it for 7 seconds before throwing downfield. When Fields holds the ball, hes scrambling to the perimeter and making plays at the sideline. Williams does that too at times - they are both amazing at it. BUt a lot of times when Williams is holding the ball, he's still in the pocket, having made a circle that drove the free defender back into one of his blockers. Aaron Rodgers does that too, it's a pretty cool trait, and hes still int he pocket waiting on a 40 yard route. Sometimes it's a big play, sometimes it's incomplete (because his long ball isnt as amazing as Daniels) but he's not scrambling, he still reading the long routes in structure. And the fast release plays for Williams, of which there are many, some with multiple reads too - WR1bam WR2bam TEbam and the ball is out - are common on his film, he does it a lot - thats why he's NFL ready - average out with the longer plays he stays in the pocket to make a stat similar to Justins, but the "standard deviation" (the amount of difference in the data) is much different between them. Justin has a small standard deviation. All his plays are pretty close in time with the ball held, and Williams' have a large amount of standard deviation so that means some plays he holds the ball twice as long as Justin, and others not at all. So you can glean from Justin's numbers that this is a problem he has, whereas you can clearly see Williams dos it fast all the time, so it's not a problem, he's just looking for home runs too much, which is what you do when your defense is giving up 35 points and more every week. You might even say that Williams is Brett Favre in that way - looking for the big play too much, trying to do too much. He will have to learn to contain himself more in the NFL and make first downs. But we see lots of evidence of him doing that. So then you ask yourself, between Williams and Daniels, both who have a ton of athleticism, and an edge in the arm and the legs to Daniels, do you think it is more likely to teach a guy to read defenses more, or to just dial it back down a bit to take first downs instead of so many big plays? For me that makes Williams the better NFL QB, even as Daniels is the better arm and legs. And unlike, say Bagent, who was really good at making decisions fast, but has a weaker arm, Williams is no slouch int he arm category, I just keep giving it to Daniels because he has such a true rocket. Hopefully you see the balance and even handedness Im giving here. Not trying to oversell or bash either of them. But for me, for NFL projection processing and playing the position running the offense, my list goes Williams, Maye, McCarthy and then Daniels. Just watch some clips of Daniels. He will make a lot of great throws, Nabers is like always open, but just honestly ask yourself, on any plays do you see him turning his head at all from the snap until the throw? Either looking off a safety or going to a second read? It has to be a play he ends up throwing it from the pocket on, scrambles and running dont count for this quesation of course. And if you do find games with a lot of it - tell me id LOVE to see it, and even change my mind. I mean, if i saw a lot of him doing it, my overall opinion of him would change a LOT.

There is certainly a good chance that we end up with Turner, and he would elevate our defense for sure, but I think we are already a top 5 defense as the roster is right now even?

I think Daniels or Penix have the biggest arm in the draft. Daniels throws a really amazing deep ball! Better than Williams for sure. He also seems to make great presnap reads, but you know my claim that he never makes any post snap reads - locks onto his #1 WR, either throws it to him (in rhythm and with great placement!) or takes off running. I have yet to see him make a second read or look off a safety. Im sure hes done it EVER, but I haven't seen it yet. If anyone has a game where he does it a lot Id be very thankful for the recommendation and watch it. If it wasnt for this one flaw, Id be big into Daniels.

there are lots of things to have opinions about. That Justin had a problem pulling the trigger isnt an opinion. It's a well chronicled fact. I am happy to admit that most things on here are opinion. Just because I have one doesnt mean I think it's the only one, or that everyone must agree - that's some kind of projection on me, but it isnt what i think. But at the same time, Im not going to live in a post modern context where nothing is real and anything can be true. That's BS. Justin has a problem playing in structure. Every pundit says it. His college scouting says it. The fact that we traded him, and what his worth was to us and the rest of the league says it. It is an incontrovertible fact. And so, pretending that there is some character flaw in me because I declare a fact a fact, is nonsense, and gratuitous. It is just is. When I say Jayden Daniels doesnt make reads or turn his head after the snap thats a claim Im making that can be proven right or wrong. There is no subjective nature to whether someone turned their head or not - they either did or they didnt, and you can count how many times each happens and get a sense of the pattern. Thats not an opinion. These ARE opinions: Daniels will grow and overcome this tendency and be amazing in the NFL Daniels is going to lead a team to a superbowl Daniels is going to score more points than any QB ever did I cant say anyone saying those things are wrong. Those are unknowns. I can have contrary opinions, but they would just be opinions. But if I say Justin wore the number 1 on his jersey, thats not an opinion. And neither is what Im saying about Fields or Daniels ability to go through progressions. They are easily seen on tape over and over. Taking shots at me personally (when that happens) is not a substitute for doing ones own homework. Maybe youll tell me "youre wrong I watched a game where Daniels made tons of second reads" and that would be a substantive claim, so I'd say "cool what game was it" and then on your recommendation, Id actually go watch the game to evaluate your claim. I wouldnt say "well youre not Kurt Warner so what do you know?" Id just be glad for the claim to go learn. And then if I saw it too Id say "well thats amazing, youre right in this game he did it - so I guess he has that capability" and then Id go look at even more games to see how common it was. Maybe the games Ive seen were a poor sample. Im totally open to that. I mean, I change my mind all the time. I wasnt sold on Caleb a couple months ago. Then i watched several hours of all 22 film, and that changed my mind. I have no reason to not like Jayden Daniels. He throws a beautiful ball. But I watched the tape and saw what I saw. So Id please ask people to stop rebutting my tape based claims with personal responses like "youre not Kurt Warner" or whatever. Or Ill just start responding it kind, and it can be like a kindergarden in here. "no YOURE a poop" "no YOU are" - it's not an argument that expands anyones understanding of anything. I also would like if anyone who said I was a Justin hater because there is something wrong with ME, that I am angry, or mean etc to admit that what I said about him turned out to be true, that Poles and the NFL agreed with me, so since I wasnt wrong, it wasnt coming from some bad character, and simply that I saw something in the tape. But I wont hold my breath.

exactly. it aint hard. But his description of Justin Fields is at odds with what the tape shows. When a guy is looking right at an open receiver, and that open receiver is hitting his break before any others, and Justin's hips are pointed toward that receiver, and his arm is up to throw - it isn't hard to know that was his first read. And when you can see the guy is open but Justin doesnt throw the ball, it doesnt take a genius at all to know that Fields is hesitating and not pulling the trigger. When you see it over and over, then you know it's a flaw in his game. And then you read a ton of people writing the same thing, and then you go back to college scouts saying the same thing. It's kind of hard to say "well you dont know what his progression was so you dont know" so i responded symmetrically, that he doesnt know how to break down tape. Im not suggesting it's hard to do or Im the only one who can do it either. But yeah, there is a reason that no one wanted Fields as a starter. that's not because of me, I'm just some guy noticing it, and if he thinks it's not true, then he is just a guy who isn't noticing it.

with due respect, you dont know how to watch the tape.