BearFan PHX

right, of course we judge QBs if they dont take their teams on their back in the 4th quarter and will a score, but if your defense is giving up more than 35 points regularly, it's hard to blame the QB. I never blamed Justin for all the losses, but I did criticize his performance.

Football is a team sport so wins and losses are never a QB stat. Of course if you can point to reasons why a game was won or lost because of the QB play, then that's different, but if youre putting up 30+ points and being beaten 38-34, it's hard to put that on the QB, just like in the games where Eberflus went to a prevent defense way too early and blew large leads, those losses werent Justin's fault.

Yeah Jayden is a great athlete, and i think he has a better arm than Caleb does. I also think Daniels does a great job with presnap reads. He runs well too. But I consistently see on Daniels' tape that he locks onto hi receiver from the snap, which is going to be a real problem int he NFL as defenders are drawn to the guy he is staring down, and i never see Daniels make a second read. Now on most plays, he doesnt have to. So for example, Daniels stars down Nabers, but Nabers is open and Daniels delivers the ball in tempo and with good location. A play like that fits my point, but I'd call it a success, because the first read was the right read and Daniels made it. ANd often with his two great WRs that first read was open, so you see a lot of plays that you say "great, Daniels did the right thing" - but then you see how often he runs too. ANd hes a good runner so often you think "great Daniels did the right thing" so he has a lot of good plays. BUT if you dig deeper, youll see he never looks off the safety and there are scant few examples of him going to a second read before he runs. And that is a problem that may not be immediately apparent to people watching the tape unless they are watching for this specifically. And if he doesnt clean it up, he will not succeed in the NFL. If you watch his head on every play, it's pretty glaring once you see it. Now, there is nothing written in stone that says an NFL coach cant develop him to have these skills. I am not going to predict that he CANT develop, but i am going to say that right now he is not NFL ready, and if you take him, you take the same risk you took with Justin. And when I look at Caleb, I see a guy who is much more NFL ready in the way he plays the QB position. The way he manipulates the pocket like Aaron Rodgers, and the way he scans the field, and manipulates defenders. Maye is a much better "QB" in this way than Daniels, although Daniels has a better arm than both Maye and Williams. So at some point, you gotta ask yourself whether youre drafting a physical set of tools that you think you can control from the sidelines, or whether youre drafting a QB who can play the game mentally.

well said, I totally agree.

the question of more picks vs fewer but higher picks is a classic one. I think it depends on where your roster is. When you have nothing you need more players, but when you have a lot of holes filled, you start to look for blue chippers who will be upgrades and not just volume of picks - especially if you believe in your ability to identify talent. 6th round picks, for example, are less valuable to us than they were two years ago. I expect Poles to add quality over quantity at this point int he rebuild, and so i agree with adams assessment that a trade down isnt absolutely necessary, and trading future LOWER picks is in play. That isnt to say that a trade down of pick 9 isnt possible, but it would be more likely to target a player like JPJ for example and to avoid overdrafting him, rather than simply to pick up more players? Once you get to the 3rd round, then all bets are off because the difference in talent as you drop down is a lot less. So Im really speaking of the first and second rounds here. So this year, picks 1 and 9. I agree with ASHKUM that we may be trading down the 3rd rounder.

Daniels has all the physical tools, but he locks on to one receiver. Often thats not a problem because the guy is open, but when he isnt, Daniels runs. I havent seen him get to a second receiver or look off a safety. And that will be necessary in the NFL. Caleb does it all the time.

yes they were the masters of this for a while.

good thoughts. and yes, the three year cycle that began after the 2022 tank year opened all that space, and now our rookies wont be looking for second contracts until the first wave hits in 2026. Thats why we still had big cap money this year too. Poles is getting us into rhythm with a roster and then we will have to trade out and replace players to stay ahead of the clock.

yes Daniels has freakish accuracy on deep balls and is better at that than Williams. Daniels probably has the best arm in the draft, although Penix has a rocket too, and Williams is no slouch, but Daniels and Penix just flick it. The point in the Williams film was just that he doesnt hold the ball like they said he does. He makes fast decisions and gets the ball out. And Daniles does too, but only if the primary receiver is open, which he often was with those two studs at WR he had.

well watch some film and see if what Im saying is mostly true or mostly not true. If all you can do is compare the pedigree of the people making the statements, then you miss the opportunity to take what Im saying, and not believe it or disbelieve it, but instead evaluate the truth of it with your own eyes. Watch 30 snaps and see if you see his head moving, or if he locks onto receivers. Nothing is 100% either way of course, but youll see what Im saying is true a lot of the time with Daniels. But basically Im not asking you to trust me or take what i say on faith, more to use what Im saying as questions that you answer yourself with your own eyes. Thats what I do, I hear different opinions, and then I watch the tape. It becomes pretty clear after that. I dont always think Kurt Warner is that good at the analysis. He knows a lot more than I do about NFL quarterbacking, but when i watch his tape he says things that i sometimes see differently. I am much more aligned in general with what JT OSullivan thinks. I usually agree with what he sees. Not always, but usually. But it doesnt matter, we can all use our own eyes to evaluate assertions like the one I made. I'll watch the Warner film and take time stamped notes about how often he: turns his head throws to a second read runs and then you can watch each play and tell us honestly whether you saw his head turn when I say it didnt or vice versa. Theres a stripe right on top of it - it's not subtle, we will all see it when we look. it doesnt take a PHD to see if a guy locks on to the WR from the snap, or looks around.

ok this is all well said. I see what you mean. i dont agree with it in every circumstance, and it's a matter of degree, but its a good point youre making.

lol well I hate that word too, and the best I can say is that hes a great prospect with a generational ceiling. There is still every chance that Waldron could ruin him too. And Im not saying that because i have anything bad to say about Waldron, Im actually very optimistic about him, but I was also excited for Nagy, so I guess we just have to wait and see what actually happens. But yeah, I think Williams has as good a chance as we've ever had to be that GOAT type QB.

well, just think about it logically. If Poles got a 3rd round offer (thats an IF, I dont know what his offers were) and accepted a 6th round offer instead because he wanted to be nice to Fields and give him his choice of team, then he would be choosing what's best for Fields over what's best for the team. And that was precisely my concern with the hug. I'm glad it didn't go so far as keeping Fields, but IF that's what happened, how else could you read it but loyalty to Fields over loyalty to the team? You're hugging a guy, and then you're trading him away. It's kind of a mixed message that might make you feel guilty, and say, give up a 3rd round pick to be "fair" to Justin. And why else would you do that, but loyalty to the player over the team?

If Poles gave up a 3rd rounder to make Justin happy, then I was right about the hugs.

if you get a chance to watch game film on Daniels watch how his head never turns. He locks onto his receiver at the snap and stares him down the whole way. He doesnt influence safeties at all. Then he either throws the ball to the guy hes locked on to, in rhythm and with good location for a good play, or he takes the ball down and runs. He just doesnt move his head at all - it's kind of wild. He makes great pre snap reads, and has a great athletic toolbox including a hell of an arm, but unless his first read is open, hes gonna run. And it worked pretty well for him because he had great receivers in college and they were usually open. But you wont see him stand in the pocket and turn his head to influence a safety or look at a second option.

I think due to various circumstances, the average opinion on Williams here on this board is lower than it truly is, and the distance between him and the other prospects is seen as closer than it really is too.

agree with all of that, and i will piggy back on your last sentence to say that we wont get a stud at every one of the positions you listed this year, but we will finish the job next year. And that's why I dont think we will trade down to address all those spots, but look to address some of them with superior talent. Im not sure of this, but it's what I'd do.

LOL thats crazy, and kind of awesome. I do not recommend that poles do this, because i dont think it'd work out, but damn if i KNEW it would end up like that, it'd be insane!

Poles really is killing it as far as the roster goes. We Bears fans deserve this. It's been way too long.

To me Jayden Daniels has a ton of positives, but I do see one glaring negative that i think will prevent him from being elite or possibly even successful in the NFL. It's very similar to the way that Justin had a ton of gifts, but one fatal flaw too. So the positives on Daniels are easy to see: He has an elite arm - makes all the throws with velocity and excellent placement He can run He makes good presnap reads He delivers the ball to his primary receiver on time and in tempo. and to be fair, he has excellent receivers and often the primary receiver is where the ball needs to go. but I also see he NEVER turns his head to look at anyone else. and when his primary receiver is covered, he runs. He also locks on to his primary receiver from the snap, and doesn't look safeties off. So his eyes are not reading more than one receiver, and not manipulating the defense. If he doesnt learn to fix this, then he will be solved by NFL defenses just as Justin has been. However, he's a young guy, and there is nothing written in stone that says he wont develop these skills with next level coaching. He will have his few years to grow, and if he can learn this, then his skill set will bring him a lot of success. But you rarely see people going from never doing something to doing it well. So for me, he is QB4 in this draft behind Williams, Maye and even JJ McCarthy. There is no way I'd take Daniels with a top 3 pick. The good news is that it looks like the Vikings have amassed enough ammo to trade up to pick #3, and he does feel like a Viking QB to me. I'd love to have our zone oriented defense feast on his poor eye discipline and lack of reading ability. Two caveats: 1) I am watching Chase Daniels break him down right now, and Daniels said "he has all the tools and reads defenses well" but all I see are excellent pre snap reads, not moving through progressions, it's as if once the ball is snapped, his neck is fused. 2) Daniels is slight of stature, and while I dont think every good QB has to have prototypical size, if he ends up on the Vikings, I will enjoy Sweat folding him like laundry

Good stuff. also, Allen isn't known a speedster, but as a route runner. Raw speed loses a step after 30, but route running ages like fine wine. We cant expect him to play at 40 like Rice did. But Rice was a route runner too, and there was no way Randy Moss could have played that long, because his game depended on his speed. So I think Allen still has some left in the tank. Maybe even a few years.

from the Hill chart (if that helps) pick #1 = 1000 points pick #11 = 358 points pick #23 = 245 points together they equal 603 points pick #2 = 717 points pick #3 = 514 points. From this one could guess that Minnesota is planning on trading up with NE to the 3rd pick for Jayden Daniels or JJ McCarthy. I hope it's Daniels, because while he has a gun of an arm, Daniels is a one read QB, and he's slight of build so Sweat is going to break him like a twig. IF Minnesota wanted to get up to #2, theyd need 114 more points. Next year's first rounder is probably worth about 130ish points, so they could reach #3 with this years picks, or Dav is right they would need to add in next years #1 to get to #2. But they'd still be nowhere near the regular value of #1 in a normal year, no less one with Williams.

absolutely. this is how you develop players.

exactly right. and too bad, but I wasnt surprised after having watched him all season.

this is ridiculous and twisting to keep a dead narrative alive. Caleb didnt do his physicals for anyone. He didnt blow the Bears off. The Bears wanted something special and Caleb said no, well do it regularly after my pro day. But the idea that Caleb not giving medicals is why Justin didnt get more value? That's nonsense. Poles needed the medical but then traded Fields anyway before the medical? That whole narrativer already was proven false today. Also, Tomlin has told Fields that he is not the starter, and it's not an open competition. And worst of all hes not gonna pick Caleb to avoid a circus - hes going to pick Caleb because hes the best damned QB thats been available in a long time. This isnt all intrigue and smokescreens and double crosses - it was always simple. Justin sucks and the NFL knows it and Caleb is great and the NFL knows it. That's all there is to it. The other scenarios died today. It was always just Justin sucks Caleb rocks.