BearFan PHX

With Shelton on the team, I think it tells you a few things. First off, it tells you that Pryor is going to compete at guard, and probably end up the backup for the guard and center slots. He will push Davis for the starting role at RG. Secondly, it tells you that we aren't going to trade down in order to target JPJ in the bottom of the first. Thirdly, so far hes signed an OT, an OG AND an OC, and getting all three tells you that it's more likely that he isn't going to trade down the #1 pick, because he is filling so many holes, as if he isn't expecting to have a ton of extra picks this year. I expect a receiver (incl Bowers) at #9, and we would still have needs at DE and DT. This rebuild still has a year left, so it won't be perfect this year. The defense is looking pretty good, so I'd say we target QB with #1 and WR with #9. With these other holes all addressed, you wouldnt need a haul of picks. It's not "proof" but it's starting to lean that way for sure.

Yes and no. Every pick is a risk, but some QBs clearly have a better chance to be great than others. It's not completely random.You have to factor that in. Caleb Williams has a better chance to be great in the NFL than anyone in a while. That doesnt mean that he is guaranteed or that he couldnt bust while another prospect thrives. But it's like this. Imagine two games. One is a coin flip. Guess it right and you win. Another is a dice roll. Roll a six and you win. You play the coin flip and your friend plays the dice game. You lose, but he wins. That doesn't mean that playing each game gives an equal chance to win or that the next time you play you shouldnt choose the dice game, because you should. Some would say "but half the time you lose, so it's just as much of a gamble as the dice game" but it isnt. it is quantifiably 3 times more likely that you win the coin toss than the dice game. "But there was a time that the dice game won, so it's all a gamble" right, but its not the SAME gamble - its still three times better bet to play the coin flip. First pick overall QBs have a much higher chance to be great than the rest of the top ten. And top ten picked QBs have a better chance than any others. First rounders have a better chance than second rounders, and second rounders have a better chance than third rounders etc. We posted a ton of analysis here a couple months back proving that beyond any doubt. And Williams is a better prospect than the average #1 pick QB too. Just because something isnt 100% predictable doesn't mean that all gambles are the same. Thats the error in your logic. Yeah I really do. I still think he should have fired Eberflus, but we can get around that. Assuming he picks Caleb WIlliams with the #1 pick, I'm giving him an A overall. Maybe not an A+ (Eberflus, Velus Jones, Claypool) but still a solid A for sure. If he passes on taking a top pick QB and rolls with Justin, then I think that will be an epic error that will doom us for a decade (we wont have another #1 pick to get a GREAT QB) and Poles will get fired.

interesting I wouldnt be mad at that, but keep Bagent too pls

lol clever

No one is sayingt a #1 pick is a sure thing, but we posted allt he charts and analysis that shows the higher the pick, the more likely the player is to be good. And that's just basic. Also, not every draft is the same, sometimes there is a special player who is a better prospect than anyone who has come out in several years. Even last year, everyone was saying that WIlliams was a better prospect than anyone int he draft that year. Some people had Stroud rated higher, a lot had Young, and for sure lots of writers are bad at spotting talent, IF they even watch the film. I dont think a lot really do - I think they read and look at highlights. But if you watch the tape, you can see why Williams is a really good bet. And that's why so many teams would take him at #1.

if all the WRs are gone, and the Bears have an OT ranked high who falls, it's definitely a possibility. You dont go into a draft locked into a position with a pick unless you have the #1 pick. Weve seen that with good and bad GMs alike. It's just the way its done. Like playing poker - you cant control the next card, but you can play the odds over time, and picking BPA is always what you strive to be able to do.

I wonder what we could get for Khalil Herbert.

amazing. this is all working out so well

and you know this. LOL

lol - what Stinger said is just crazy. And that is the right word for it. Because Poles said he would try to get Fields traded quickly means that he isn't trading him. It's all a BIG smokescreen. Justin has actually known how to read defenses for 3 years, but they are just pretending he's bad so that the league will be surprised. Poles and Fields have both known all along that Fields is the man, and it's the biggest psy-op ever. No one can quite figure out what the advantage of it is, but BOY will people be surprised. And ya know what? When Fields is traded for a 5th round pick, or cut outright, or even kept on the team but told not to suit up because of injury, hoping for a September trade, there will be no where to hide. No scenario that explains it all away. The curtain will be pulled back and then we will see how inane this all was. Poles knows Justin sucks. Everyone in the league knows Justin sucks. It fits all the data, and you can watch it on film. I've known it since October of last year, and dragging people into the light kicking and screaming is exhausting. "I don't WANT a generational QB, i don't WANT to be a top team! I want Justin!" For gosh sakes, get on board already, the Superbowl train is leaving the station. Drop the Justin bobblehead and get with the happiness.

right. even if Justin goes, we will have Williams and Bagent as our 1 and 2, so this is a camp arm, and a possible #3 who you float on the practice squad

Poles is just making sure he covers every position he might draft, so he is free to get the guy that falls to #9. If a great LOT falls, then we could take him. WR will be the first most likely target I think, but if the top 3 are gone, we could look at OT or DL too. Or Bowers. So this creates backup and competition at LOT if we take a WR, but it isn't so much that it prevents us from drafting Fashanu or Alt if we love them and they fall while the WRs go early? I think we will go into this season wishing we had more impact players at two or three of these spots WR, LOT, OG, OC, DE and DT. And that will be when we put the cherry on top in next years offseason. This year we will be pretty loaded, but a couple of these cheaper signings could well get playing time too. We are on schedule to realistically compete for superbowls with a window opening in the 2025 season, and there is no law that says they couldnt gel this season and make a run either.

I think that even though Fields' contract is fully guaranteed, some of it is salary and roster bonus, and that is paid on the cap by whichever team holds his contact at the time those things come due? So if we cut him, it's on us, but if we trade him then it comes off our cap? I think offset language is for when we cut a player, but not a trade.

right - find a DE and a DT, and the D is complete. And the offensive roster is going to take a big jump forward this offseason too.

That is more likely than my scenario for sure. And I have heard the Bears might even prefer Nabers too, so there are options and permutations. And to Mongo - if four QBs go before pick #9, and there are three WRs we like, the odds are pretty good wed get one. And if not you have amazing options at LOT, Bowers or a top DL. One way or another though, we are getting another impact WR for sure.

Im not predicting this, but there is a scenario where Arizona trades out of #4 for a team that wants JJ McCarthy, and then the Bears trade up into #5 to take MHJr. Imagine getting Williams and MHJr to go along with DJ Moore, Kmet, and the new RB and TE2. Wed still need OL help from free agency, but if we traded our lower picks to make this happen, or maybe next years CAR #2 I wouldnt be mad at it at all.

Right, if they are winning 10 games, I cant imagine them firing Flus and moving everyone else up. Even if they think that would be better, its still not something you could really do. I see Flus as kind of a glorified defensive coordinator and executive head coach. I dont see him giving the offense an edge in winning the way that Belichick did for example, even though he was a defensive guy too, and of course I worry that if Waldron takes the offense to the moon, he would be gone to be a head coach somewhere, where Id rather keep him than Flus at that point. But it wouldnt be because Flus was awful but because Waldron gave you more. But like we all said, at that point it wouldnt really be possible even if it was smart because how do you fire a guy who is winning 10+ games a year on a team that is ascending? We have a passing game coordinator named Thomas Brown who is supposed to be incredibly charismatic and likely head coach someday, so he would step into Waldrons shoes if that happened and supposedly wed be in good hands. And to try to see into the future past Waldron and Brown is completely impossible. We should have that problem - winning multiple superbowls and losing two offensive coordinators in a row!

lol

It's the most confusing and divisive issue ever in Chicago Sports. And I think one could make a case that it could become a QB controversy, or this kind of acrimony could invade the locker room if you keep both?

maybe he';s better than I thought and is a true depth piece. Thanks for this info. ah you beat me to it. I posted it and then scrolled down and saw you said it first LOL

hahaha it's our Taylor Swift - we finally have a modern franchise hahaha

for sure you could put Mahomes or Brady on a crappy team and it would be hard for them to win a superbowl. Football is the ultimate team sport. But I believe a great QB can do more with less, than a great team can accomplish without a great QB. And that the soundest strategy is to have both. And also that building a roster is easier than finding an elite QB.

I mean top 2 in the league, like Mahomes is now. And of course no one ever comes into the league as that. But I'm saying if you don't have one of those, you're not realistically in a position to have a likely shot at super bowl victories. And you're right about Foles. He did get the MVP of the game though, went for 373 yards, 3 TD and one INT. So they had top notch QB play in that game. I also think things can be true without being 100% certain. That's why I say "multiple superbowls" or "likely" - because there is enough chaos that you can sneak into one if everything goes your way, but if you want to be in a position to think you're a leading contender year in and year out, the only way is with a top elite QB. And that's why I think taking a shot at a possible prospect who could be that (and that's all Williams can be at this point, a prospect) is so valuable. I see a high percentage likelihood that Williams can be that, but of course it depends on lots of factors including coaching and who the Bears put around him too. People saying we need a team around the position are also totally correct. But I dont think if you put a team around Sam Darnold or Marcus Mariotta or someone professional like that that you realistically have any real shot at winning a super bowl. Oh and to the contrarian point, I dont mind that at all - these debates help educate (me at least) and sharpen the arguments etc, so I appreciate that. Despite what is said, I don't mind when people disagree with me at all. I just prefer (not talking to you here) if it's less sarcastic etc. But it's all good. it IS the internet after all.

we also signed a DB from Green Bay today - not a big contract - probably a special teamer.

No team has ever won two superbowls with anything less than a top 2 QB. Every now and then a lesser QB will sneak into a SB win, but only when one of the big names isnt in it. Mahomes, Brady and the manning Brothers have wont he vast majority of the superbowls in the last 25 years. Before that it was Bradshaw, Montana and others. It's a team game and no QB can do it alone, but if you dont have a top 2 QB, youre not realistically in the hunt.