BearFan PHX

yes QBs do inflate the value of the trade downs if more than one team is hungry for sure. lacking picks, I think we will grab a bunch of free agents. Not sure how many will be big splashes, but I see a handful of guys under say $7M a year making a lot of sense to fill those holes until next years draft. Maybe we are taking a WR at #9, so the rookie QB can get chemistry and we get a bunch of OL in free agency?

its a good thought, the Hill chart says sliding from 9 all the way to 20 gets you a mid 2nd, but going to 15 only gets you a high 3rd. You could get JPJ that way, but I think we really need weapons for the new QB too. Maybe a WR at 15 and a center but not JPJ in the 2nd? The Justin picks are going to be really important, I hope we are able to get value for him, but if theres only one team interested, they could well wait until we just cut him if there are no other offers.

I hate PFF, but in this case I agree with you (and them) about Bates. I can't see us trading back from #1 unless it's to #2. I just watched some tape on Daniels and I see real problems. I don't have an opinion on Maye yet, and there are some other names to look at too, but more and more I think we will just take Caleb. But I absolutely see the problem that we are very short on picks. And you only get a haul out of pick 1 or 2. Trading 9 down to 20 you only get a 3rd rounder for the trouble. If youre all in on JPJ and hes your other first rounder, and you dont want to overdraft him, then OK, but I think we stay at #9 and take OT, WR, Bowers or a DL. We are short on picks for sure. Worth it for Sweat, but we need more picks. Maybe we will spend next years 2nd to move our 3rd up into round 2. We still need too many things though.

I suspect he will be the swing C/G, and thats a good point about already knowing what the Justin offers are, at least what the worst case scenario is, it could always go up if more teams jump in, but your point that they know it's a least X, and X allows them to spend this 5th rounder is smart.

lol yes! there is nothing immoral about Justin Fields! I like the kid, I really do. He is an incredible athlete, but his skills dont really add up to a QB position. Im serious when I say he reminds me of Hester. In 2022 he was a threat to score any time he touched the ball. His open field running is legendary status. But then two things happened - one is the Bears obviously told him not to make any moves on defenders in the open field, and to slide to avoid injury - which makes sense but took away his greatest strength. and two is that defenses realized he wouldnt surgically punish them if they adjusted their defensive front to contain his running. In fact they learned how to push his mental buttons to get him to run right into their linemen. And so he cant really ever succeed as an NFL QB. He'd have to punish teams with anticipatory timing throws across the middle before hed get an honest defensive front and be able to run again. I mean, he will break off more highlights, but he wont be able to consistently move chains and score that way. So he's finished. But he's not a bad guy. He's an incredible athlete, a hard worker and a hell of a nice person. A good leader too. He just had this incredible flash of open field ability that made everyone fall in love with him, but it's not enough to attack NFL defenses that adjust to it without a complementary on time passing skill. You could be the best rock thrower in rock paper scissors, but if you dont have a scissors counter move, your opponent learns to always play paper and beat your rock, and if you cant burn them with scissors, youre done. No matter how well you throw that rock.

Fields may well not be traded by the opening of free agency, because there are better QBs available like Kirk Cousins and Russell Wilson. I don't see any team giving up draft value for Justin when they might be able to get one of those guys instead. So he may not get traded right away, but it wont be for any reason except that no one wants him that much. And he wont be in camp for us in the fall. That would be a colossal error. The morale issues alone are a nightmare.

they are having cap issues I guess in Buffalo. This one guy fills several needs, and probably better value than in free agency, and he's young at 27. First off, he allows us not to have to spend big money on a center. it's kind of a signal we are drafting a center. This allows us to trust that if a rookie isnt ready we arent screwed. We will probably sign a lame-ish free agent QB too for the same reason. Unless we trust Bagent, but Im getting off on a tanget. And once he has served his purpose as a booster rocket to a rookie center, or a placeholder, then he becomes insurance with Jenkins and Davis, both who can be great, but you cant fully count on it seems. Someone, I think it was Pix, said that he is going to be our Lucas Patrick. And that's almost as important as a nickel with our line it seems. It's someone that lets you potentially roll with Davis and Jenkins one more year, and provides a quality option at any interior position for injury. I think in order to be able to go into the draft, you gotta sign these mid level free agents to fill any hoes you have so you dont have to reach if the draft falls one way or another. if we had no center, then wed be at the mercy of the draft ebbs and flows, and this way we dont need to sign a $10M+ free agent center, which would limit our ability to grab a JPJ or VanPran if they are available where we can get them. Or to ignore them if someone amazing falls. If all goes well he will be our backup C/G, but he gives us a lot of flexibility in the next few months too. We will sign a FS too.

Well youre calling me paranoid. But I dont care. Whatever. Ive accepted that we all choose to be a little rough and sarcastic here, fine, just dont mind if I do it too then, Ill go the speed of traffic. What you said was I was wrong about Flus so I dont know everything, and I answered that point. I didnt say you were mean, but I did say that your argument is flawed because we all make mistakes, and I clarified what id actually said about Flus. And also that i wasnt predicting what Poles would do, I was saying what i think he SHOULD do. That's why i said "what I THINK" Iw asnt wrong. I was right - I do think Poles should have fired Flus. But what he cant do is keep Fields. Not saying wont. Saying cant. Shouldnt. Would be foolish if he did. But none of this matters. People can be an offended as they want to about the idea that I am certain that Fields sucks. Well I am. I am certain. I have seen it and I am genuinely baffled anyone thinks otherwise at this point. I think it couldnt be more obvious. It is rare that I am so certain about anything as I am about Justin. So this isnt a problem with me thinking Im so great - Im just completely convinced on this one question. There are people who think the earth is flat. I think theyre wrong too, and I dont go around saying "well of course you could be right" its just wrong. This time last year it was a debate, but the experiment is over. Justin sucks. I dont want him in camp with a rookie. It's not a good move for morale, and frankly I see Justin's presence and performance hampering a rookie's development, not giving excellent advice about reading defenses because he is still trying to learn it himself.

Poles tried to sign him in free agency in 2022 when he was a RFA but Buffalo matched our offer. That's a good sign.

exactly. and also, since we have two potentially very good guards, both of whom missed time last season, you have a quality replacement if one falters, or if the new guy ascends. And it covers your bases for the draft so you can go BPA and not have to reach for a center if it doesnt fall the right way, and conversely so you dont have to rely on a rookie center to start right away if you do get one. We will also have to sign a FS for the same reasons.

I imagine right now he is a center for us, and Poles has a plan to pick up center in the draft, and then Bates competes with the rookie for center, and with the two guards too. I think Davis will be better this year, and I hope that Jenkins won't be injured, but I want a 3rd OG to compete with them. If he displaces them that's great, if he is a quality backup for when either are faltering, that's cool too. And he's insurance if it takes a minute for a rookie center to get up to speed. I talked about this exact move being a likely early one for Poles a few weeks ago. I didnt know the player, or that it would be a trade and not a free agent signing, but an obvious move is a decent but not break the bank center who can compete at guard as a precursor to taking a center (and/or guard) in the draft. Unless we also sign a guy like Cushenberry or anyone at the $10M+ level in free agency, I think you can take this as a strong signal that we are drafting a center this year. Maybe Sedrick Van Pran in the 3rd? If we do sign a big name center, then this guy moves right to competing at guard. Today he is our starting center, by September (or earlier) who knows.

ok, and Justin still sucks. no matter how flawed you are sure I am, Justin sucking has nothing to do with me. I could have never been born and Justin would still suck. And Caleb Williams would still be a star. I root for the team, not for a specific player.

I dont think Im smarter than them. I think this Justin Fields love thing has gotten completely out of control. I dont think all my opinions are gold - this isnt a character flaw or an ego problem. I'm not like this about everything I believe am I? So youre wrong about that too - it's just a cheap shot, since you have no real data. It's that I've watched the all 22 film, and you're telling me things I know just arent true. Youre saying 2+2=5 to me. You're telling me you love the king's new clothes. But I can see with my own eyes in completely clear ways that he is stark naked. You just cant let Justin go, and you're blaming me for that. Justin is not good. The numbers say it, the film says it, and the lack of high value trade offers from other teams say it. I don't know if Wannstedt has watched the all 22 film. I would bet he hasnt. But the GMs have. Where are the first round trade offers? Where are the 300 yard passing games? Where are the 4th quarter comebacks? Where are the consistent throws in tempo? Where is any kind of reliable passing in the middle of the field? Where is even reading defenses?! It's CUH-RAZY at this point. You are just a fan and you dont know what youre talking about. You dont even see throwing mechanics on film. You arent qualified to have an opinion which is why all you do is repeat others. And at this point the huge percentage of talking heads are agreeing with me too, but that doesnt sway you. Your old argument of authority is shrinking in number of names. But you dont even follow your own argument and just stick with the Justinmania. Youre wrong, and you cant admit it, and you think that means I have a problem LOL

Since we are all calling each other out now, I think we should all get on the record with what our position is on Caleb Williams. No one has a crystal ball, no one KNOWS - we know that, but if you had to bet, what's the most likely outcome for Caleb? Put yourself on the line and say what you think. I think Williams will take the Bears to multiple Superbowls, and end up in the Hall of Fame. Does that mean I know for a certainty that Williams wont get hit by a bus and never play football? Of course not. No one can predict the entire complex future. But if he goes to the Bears and plays, do you think he's gonna be bust, mediocre, great? Say it now, because I don't want to see you guys all on the Caleb Williams bandwagon when he takes us where we've never been before as an offense. Youll have to say that you were the ones who thought we shouldn't take WIlliams, and stay with Fields. And boy are you gonna feel dumb. "Walter Payton? A small school running back? No way, we have to take DE Mack Mitchell. Defense wins championships" and then sit there and watch 15 years of greatness and sweetness. Why? Because you can't let go of Fields in your mind. We are on the precipice of greatness and you're so distracted by a QB that never did anything to dominate. And you're gonna have to watch how Fields does in the next few years too. All you're gonna have is excuses why the Falcons or Steelers didnt give him what he needed. The train is leaving the station gents. Now is the time to get on board with the future of the franchise. Youre gonna love him, and youre gonna feel really bad that you didnt get excited when he came here. So what's your prediction we can put in a time capsule and revisit in 3 years? I put mine up there in the second paragraph.

I said "I don't THINK he would" - I still think Flus should have been fired, and if Poles keeps Justin and doesn't draft a high pick rookie QB, then Poles should be fired and probably would be after a dismal next season. Also what I said was that keeping Flus would miss an opportunity to get a better coach who could give us an edge in winning. I also said we could win with Flus if the assistants are good. I said Justin was the one you HAVE to get rid of, and Flus is one you SHOULD get rid of. I still think Harbaugh would have been better. But you're right that anything can happen, but it's also fair to say that the chance that Fields is back is miniscule. It's that pesky difference between possible and likely again. Wishes rather than information and analysis. If your main argument is that anything I ever say is probably be wrong because I didn't think he'd keep Flus, I think that's pretty weak, since every one of us has been wrong multiple times. When Fields is traded do i get to discount anything you ever say again because you liked him? That wouldnt be fair either would it? But dude, Fields sucks as a QB. I cant believe we are still here at this late date, hearing that the league isnt even interested in trading much for him, and you and a few others are still so sure that Fields is awesome. He isnt. He's a bad QB. A great runner, a great person, a terrible NFL QB. You really need to get back to reality here.

Im not suggesting they will "just figure it out later" but with any draft, if you're not picking with #1 then you're mapping scenarios and contingencies. Every GM does that throughout the draft, it'd be rare to not be doing that, as you can only avoid that with the #1 pick. So it's what they do as a matter of course anyway. I also think Poles can pretty much "gamble" that Williams has no injuries, since there is no indication of anything, and he WILL get a definitive answer before the draft, just not before trading Fields. So the question really is, if Caleb announced tomorrow that he is quitting football, or he had a medical evaluation at the combine that came back really bad, would Poles be keeping Fields? I don't think he would, so that means Williams' medical eval isn't really a determining factor in making the Fields trade?

I am sure Poles wishes he had the physical now rather than later, but i also think it changes nothing. If there is a physical problem with Williams Poles will take that into account for his draft strategy. But Fields is gone not just because Williams is available, but because he sucks as a QB. That isnt changing no matter what Williams does.

LOL dude, Justin is gone, accept it. Also Caleb will give the Bears physicals before the draft, just not before their trade window. And if Caleb suddenly retired, the Bears would STILL draft a QB this year and move on from Fields, so the medical eval isn't necessary in order to trade Justin. He gone.

Maybe we should sign him as the vet for Caleb to learn under. Im half kidding.

And mine to you too. It's always really shocking when it happens unexpectedly, especially to someone our age or younger. There is the loss of that person, which is a lot, and there is also a reminder of our own mortality as well. Life is short, we gotta fill it with the best stuff we can while we can.

I agree with everything on this thread, especially valuing the time you have with loved ones. A good friend of mine died unexpectedly last week. She was 39. I had spoken to her literally 12 hours earlier, and pretty much every day for a while. I went to her house for Thanksgiving. I see my parents (and myself!) aging too. My daughter was like 5 yesterday. She will be 21 in a few weeks and just got engaged to a really great guy. It all goes so fast. Hug the people you love and try to live without hate as much as possible.

yeah, it's not nothing, but it's pretty close to nothing. They will get a physical before the draft. So the question is, if you knew Williams was unavailable, maybe went to Tibet to become a monk and forego football, would you keep Justin then? If the answer is yes, then the physical is slightly concerning, if the answer is no, then it means nothing. For me, it's not even close. Justin is a nice young man, and a great open field runner, but as a QB he sucks. You can see the lack of interest in him from the league too. He has just been so overhyped for some reason and people have lost their damn minds. If you watch all 22 film, you know. Justin is never going to win a superbowl. Ever. No chance.

a rusty what? LOL

So here is Sports Illustrated confirming that Williams opted not to visit the Bears tomorrow, and to wait on his physical until after his pro day. And this is normal. Team visits are usually later. Williams not participating in physicals during the combine was the curveball. I dont think it's a very big deal, and I dont think it will prevent Poles from trading Fields either. The simple fact is that Fields really isn't very good, and we are going to need a new QB this year even if Caleb Williams gets hit by a bus and never plays in the NFL. I would easily take Maye or Daniels over Fields. https://www.si.com/nfl/bears/news/caleb-williams-reportedly-delays-bears-plans-for-physical

Me too. Two weeks ago I had doubts, but now that I've watched more film, and seen Caleb's interviews, I'm all in. And I think a lot of the anti Caleb stuff is really just leftover pro Fields stuff. If you remove Fields-love from the equation, we are looking at one of the best prospects coming into the NFL in quite a long time. Man, Fields really played with some people's heads.