BearFan PHX

oops you beat me to it - exactly.

probably, and then you've got to compete with other teams. He will be a backup here most likely, whereas another lesser team could easily afford $4M a year and make him a starter. ANd he would have chosen being a starter Im sure, so Poles paid the price to make him a Bear.

No Justin is not a piece of shit and I never said that. What your reading comprehension challenged mind is rememberi8ng is that i called him a turd. And while an actual turd and an actual piece of shit are the same thing, I assume youre not SO stupid that you think i was mistaken that a human being was an actual poop. no, it was used in common slang, which you and I are both well aware of. A piece of shit by slang is a terrible person, someone without morals, someone who betrays others and cant be counted on. Justin is not that. That's crazy, A turd by slang is something that doesnt reach its potential. You may know the phrase "you cand polish a turd" or "he laid a turd" it means to be inept, and miss fulfilling a promise or goal. And that is precisely what Fields is. Also there are lots of examples of me speaking in measured ways, giving odds all that - youre just a very silly person who cant debate very well, and resorts to personal attacks and arguments of authority when challenged. And no, Mahomes was going to be great. People knew his ceiling before the draft. You could read it anywhere, what they were worried about was whether he would be able to play on schedule rather than always freelancing. ANd also the guy was picked 11th overall so spare me that no one saw potential in him. Youre silly and wrong and angry and you are going to feel really dumb when Williams is the man and the Bears succeed and YOU were the hater that couldnt see it. Silly silly man.

BIlls are in major cap hell. Gotta factor that in to all of this. They are having a fire sale. Maybe Poles got a deal.

All I know is the film I see. I watched at least 40 plays in a row from LSU Alabama where Daniels locked onto a single receiver right from the snap, and then either threw the ball to that receiver, or ran. i never saw him work through a progression or even turn his head except for one play. That means no looking off of safeties, and a lot of batted balls at the LOS. No second reads. I hear the same narratives over and over from pundits. i don't think they watch the film, I think producers tell them hot takes that get clicks. Once you just watch a couple games on all 22 with your own eyes you start to realize how phony all the press coverage really is. It's so easy to just take a minute and use your own eyes - you dont need to be an expert, just look at all 22, and watch each play three or four times in a row. Figure out what the progression was, what the QB did, did they manipulate the defense, did they get the ball to the right guy in tempo. It takes a couple hours. It's not that hard at all, but if you dont do it, youre at the mercy of stats and pundits and they really dont tell the story at all. Most of it is BS. Like Tony Romo commenting on the Bears game. Romo's a smart guy, he knows football, but he repeated narratives that anyone who watches the team knows arent true. His producers prepare him, he didnt watch a years worth of Bears games to prepare. When I started watching Caleb Williams tape I was expecting to see him holding the ball a lot and looking like the same things i criticized Justin for. That's what Id read. But you know what? That wasnt what was on tape at all! We all need to shake off the media brainwashing and look for ourselves if we want to know the truth.

Im still open on Maye, but Daniels is a one read QB from the film Ive seen. Unless he grows skills he doesnt have, hes gonna get eaten alive by NFL defenses.

Look at Marino's throwing motion - best that ever spun it. Then look at Williams. And I have never heard of the guy doing the Williams analysis before, I just searched "Caleb throwing motion" on youtube just now and found this. I know his motion form the tape I've watched, but I found this that gets right to it. I only watched a few seconds of the thing ive linked here, and you can see it. Marino-like. If you're still throwing up red flags about Williams, it's like youre hating on Walter Payton. Youre all gonna have to remember that youre the guy(s) that said Williams was a mistake. What a big fail!

and a ton of money yet in free agency too!

I hear ya!

watch tape, dont quote stats that you read out of context. Williams held the ball on some plays for a reason, not because he was indecisive. When you just read stats you really dont know what they mean.

FWIW I watched the first half of LSU / Alabama to see Jayden Daniels. I gotta say what I saw was shocking. In literally every play I saw, Daniels stared down a single receiver from the snap, and either threw the ball to that receiver, or ran. There is a stripe on the top of his helmet and it was astonishing how it never rotated. I've never seen anything that clear. In some plays, there were other receivers wide open, and he didn't ever look to a second read. He has an incredible arm, and when Nabers is open, which he often is, and is Daniels' primary read, which he often was, Daniels throws a really nice ball and puts up those big numbers. LSU has another WR who is pretty good too, and ditto that - if he's the first read, Daniels puts up some really beautiful throws. But I didn't see him once turn his head. He didnt even look off safeties - he just locked on to his primary receiver right from the snap and then threw him the ball or bailed and ran. That is gonna have to change big time in the NFL or we all know what happens. CBs punish you int he NFL for staring down receivers, and when Defensive Coordinators find out you're not multidimensional, they can get into your head and shut you down, just like what happened to Justin. Daniels moves down my rankings big time after seeing this. And it wasn't as if I'd read that about him before, or was looking for it. It just stood out from the film. There it was, true on it's own merit with no bias, because i wasn't even looking for that when I started watching. It wasnt a narrative, it was just there on film. EDIT - I finally saw a single play where he looked around. He was looking around panicked, and threw an incompletion, the receiver dropped it. But his head did move on that one play. It was not an example of smoothly going through a progression though that's for sure. Also, because he locks on to one receiver right from the snap, defensive linemen have time to get into throwing lanes, and he gets a lot of balls tipped too. Hard pass on Daniels.

he's projected to be worth $10.4M a year. Poles is disciplined with his spending but that doesn't mean he isn't willing to spend big when a player is worth it. $10.4M/yr isn't that big of a contract anyway. He apparently plays deep center field or in the box, and can play cover corner too. On spotrac, his player comp is Eddie Jackson LOL Good find ASHKUM.

I would definitely take two first rounders for JJ.One of them we'd have to use on his replacement though, and the other one comes in 2025?

I've been thinking the same thing. Poles does seem to have an eye for DBs, and while Jaylon is good, and Im happy to have him here for a while, and he is worth the money, and we do have the cap space - but a few more picks might help the team more. I think it's almost a toss up for me. I guess we keep him. But if we can sign him to a deal that we can get out of next year with a trade, like front loading it with money this year, having him this year, and possibly getting major picks for him next year when we can replace him wouldnt be bad.

The Bears tagged Jaylon Johnson - no surprise, and likely contract negotiations will follow.

yup to all of that too

good analysis, it all makes sense assuming teams really want him. I think someone will, I hope two someones will.

I AM predicting Justin is gone, I wasnt predicting Flus would be gone, but I do think it was the wrong move to keep him. But can i predict if Poles will do the wrong thing? Of course not. But keeping Justin would be extremely stupid. Maybe I should be clearer for you - Justin and Flus are not the same person.

LOL it wasnt my prediction he would be gone it was my opinion he SHOULD be gone. I still think that. But youre grasping at straws. Justin is gone, Bears will draft a new QB. Its a good thing. Dont know why youre so stuck, but thats your deal.

yes QBs do inflate the value of the trade downs if more than one team is hungry for sure. lacking picks, I think we will grab a bunch of free agents. Not sure how many will be big splashes, but I see a handful of guys under say $7M a year making a lot of sense to fill those holes until next years draft. Maybe we are taking a WR at #9, so the rookie QB can get chemistry and we get a bunch of OL in free agency?

its a good thought, the Hill chart says sliding from 9 all the way to 20 gets you a mid 2nd, but going to 15 only gets you a high 3rd. You could get JPJ that way, but I think we really need weapons for the new QB too. Maybe a WR at 15 and a center but not JPJ in the 2nd? The Justin picks are going to be really important, I hope we are able to get value for him, but if theres only one team interested, they could well wait until we just cut him if there are no other offers.

I hate PFF, but in this case I agree with you (and them) about Bates. I can't see us trading back from #1 unless it's to #2. I just watched some tape on Daniels and I see real problems. I don't have an opinion on Maye yet, and there are some other names to look at too, but more and more I think we will just take Caleb. But I absolutely see the problem that we are very short on picks. And you only get a haul out of pick 1 or 2. Trading 9 down to 20 you only get a 3rd rounder for the trouble. If youre all in on JPJ and hes your other first rounder, and you dont want to overdraft him, then OK, but I think we stay at #9 and take OT, WR, Bowers or a DL. We are short on picks for sure. Worth it for Sweat, but we need more picks. Maybe we will spend next years 2nd to move our 3rd up into round 2. We still need too many things though.

I suspect he will be the swing C/G, and thats a good point about already knowing what the Justin offers are, at least what the worst case scenario is, it could always go up if more teams jump in, but your point that they know it's a least X, and X allows them to spend this 5th rounder is smart.

lol yes! there is nothing immoral about Justin Fields! I like the kid, I really do. He is an incredible athlete, but his skills dont really add up to a QB position. Im serious when I say he reminds me of Hester. In 2022 he was a threat to score any time he touched the ball. His open field running is legendary status. But then two things happened - one is the Bears obviously told him not to make any moves on defenders in the open field, and to slide to avoid injury - which makes sense but took away his greatest strength. and two is that defenses realized he wouldnt surgically punish them if they adjusted their defensive front to contain his running. In fact they learned how to push his mental buttons to get him to run right into their linemen. And so he cant really ever succeed as an NFL QB. He'd have to punish teams with anticipatory timing throws across the middle before hed get an honest defensive front and be able to run again. I mean, he will break off more highlights, but he wont be able to consistently move chains and score that way. So he's finished. But he's not a bad guy. He's an incredible athlete, a hard worker and a hell of a nice person. A good leader too. He just had this incredible flash of open field ability that made everyone fall in love with him, but it's not enough to attack NFL defenses that adjust to it without a complementary on time passing skill. You could be the best rock thrower in rock paper scissors, but if you dont have a scissors counter move, your opponent learns to always play paper and beat your rock, and if you cant burn them with scissors, youre done. No matter how well you throw that rock.

Fields may well not be traded by the opening of free agency, because there are better QBs available like Kirk Cousins and Russell Wilson. I don't see any team giving up draft value for Justin when they might be able to get one of those guys instead. So he may not get traded right away, but it wont be for any reason except that no one wants him that much. And he wont be in camp for us in the fall. That would be a colossal error. The morale issues alone are a nightmare.