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Everything posted by BearFan PHX
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The Chicago Bears are on the clock! OFFSEASON OPEN THREAD!
BearFan PHX replied to adam's topic in Bearstalk
thank you - players generally will say good things about their QB -
it all depends on free agency!
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lol everything about the Bears decisions this offseason go down to the very last game the player played or the coach coached
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Love the trades you got for eJax, Mooney and Whitehair!
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The Chicago Bears are on the clock! OFFSEASON OPEN THREAD!
BearFan PHX replied to adam's topic in Bearstalk
I agree that if someone has personality problems it can hurt a locker room. But as far as loyalty to Justin is concerned, if they trade Justin, and draft lets say, Drake Maye, no one will blame Maye for that, and if he gets them the ball on time, and wins games, they will love him. If on the other hand, they draft Williams and he sucks as a person (does he? I dunno yet) then regardless of Fields, guys wont like him. So I think its just more about drafting leaders, and that goes for any QB on any team, than any left over loyalty to Justin? -
The Chicago Bears are on the clock! OFFSEASON OPEN THREAD!
BearFan PHX replied to adam's topic in Bearstalk
it depends. over competitive - great. cocky - cool. but selfishness can go two ways. If it meets adversity and manifests as "whatever" withdrawing like Jay Cutler did, then its a problem. Im not saying thats Williams, but I am concerned and looking for more info. -
good point. at first it could look really good, but in the end to be the guy that fired Harbaugh, and to see the wins decrease, will people know he had to do it? Probably not, and he will take the heat. I feel like Cunningham can wait for the right gig, but maybe the Chargers is it - if you can get a Superbowl with Harbaugh?
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I think Fields' best position would be like Taysom Hill in New Orleans. Let him run the Wildcat 6 plays a game or something. And then he can do what he does best, which is run int he open field without worrying youre going to injure your QB. He could play some gadget WR too - but if we asked him to take that role, hed demand a trade. And rightly so - he will get one more chance with another team to show it, and then we will all see it one way or the other. He really is a lot like Hester - a talent without a position on offense.
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he had like 5 plays against Atlanta, showing something hes never really shown before. And he didnt do it against GB the next week. I am not saying anyone off the street is as good as Fields. But compared to NFL QBs, he just never really got it.
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exactly. he has to flash at least. Other than the scripted plays each week, Fields rarely showed he could play within structure. He did show a bit against Atlanta, but it was probably too little too late, and the slope of the growth curve is very shallow. Maybe he will prove me wrong, but id bet against him.
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I dont think Getsy is a genius, but i think Getsy closed down his playbook to protect Justins shortcomings not the other way around. The only skill of Justin's that they stopped catering to was that they clearly told him to slide when he meets his first defender now, as opposed to last year when he put those crazy moves on defenders like Hester. I dont think Justin can be successful in any system until he can regularly make reads in tempo, and I doubt hes gonna get many more chances to do that. A new team can sometimes give a fresh start, but I think this is a fatal flaw in his game.
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for sure. the great thing about football is everything is a multiplier, and if one part of the chain is a zero, the product is a zero. To your point about losing successful coordinators - this is why I prefer to have an offensive minded head coach.
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hes athletic and functional. Im not saying Williams will be great - it has more to do with how I rate Fields right now. But if Williams struggles, but is athletic, he will be the same as Fields?
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hes still an anomaly. but I dont think Justin Fields is that high of a threshold, thats probably the difference in our opinions? And hes an anomaly in that hes doing it year one. But could I see Williams do the same next year with the Bears team? For sure. Am I confident he WILL be that guy? Not right now, but maybe after i watch more film. But I am confident Williams will be at least as good as Fields is now, right out of the gate.
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I guess Im gonna have to get over the drama BS and see if I cant fall in love with Williams the player.
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yes, and of course it isnt picking them #1 that makes them great, but just all the GMs who see the player the same way. In a year like this, where the consensus #1 may play outside of structure, and there are so many good options, it may be that the 2nd QB picks outplays the first one, or is also good too. I wonder what the numbers look like #2 pick vs #9 etc. EDIT - click on the tweet and read the whole thread, theres a LOT there, and it is a strong signal vs noise. Like look at this! 6th - 10th picks doing better than 2nd - 5th I need to watch a lot of film on Williams.
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well you know I agree with everything you said, Im just saying if you have a GREAT QB they are worth the money. I dont think Justin is better than a rookie. And he wont be better than them in 2025 for sure.
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all true, but secondary to the fact that Justin just isnt a very good QB.
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But said more simply: what is it about Justin's play so far that makes you think he would be a better overall QB, from the point of view of points on the board and wins, than a rookie QB in their rookie season? I dont even think there would be regression at all. I dont think Fields has done anything consistent that moves the needle on points and wins.
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Youre right on both accounts. Fields showed some things I hadnt seen from him before against Atlanta, and if Fields is our QB next year, Im gonna root for him, until (if) he starts paying poorly at least. I just havent really seen enough evidence to think that Fields is a good bet, and if they keep him and Eberflus, and they dont come out of the gate humming, I'll start thinking we really messed up pretty quick. And also, I need to see us beat GOOD teams. And of course with Mahomes, the reason we talk about him is because of all the good games he's had, and Justin just doesnt have them on tape. We won half of the games that Bagent started. Im not suggesting that Bagent should be our presumptive starter, but that the team CAN win without Justin. For all his flashy plays, Im not sure he increases our ability to win games more than any of the rookies would. And thats kind of my main point - a new QB doesnt put you back to 0 wins. Justin isnt that far over baseline. Play to play he is - he makes amazing escapes. But at the end of the day, on the scoreboard, I dont think Justin's added value over the median QB is much at all. But more to the point - the rookie will get better, whereas I dont think Justin is ever gonna be that guy to play in structure. If we have a rookie QB next year, it shouldnt be awful. If the OC is good, we should be able to win as many games as we won this year. QB aside, I think the schedule we would like to be on is playoffs this year, NFC Championship game in 2025 and Superbowl contender 2026 and 2027. You have to grow into that. If you have a rookie, that probably pushes that back a year - but its one that can be made up in 2025 if the team is clicking. I think it's a mistake to take a trend line and predict the future from that. Its not a line, its a curve as diminished returns kick in when youre looking to unseat the good teams. I dont think you can look at Fields' growth curve and expect a Superbowl at the end of it. You cant say "we went from 3 wins to 7 wins so I expect 10 wins next year" Going from awful to mediocre is growth but it doesnt imply better than average is next. If you plug holes you get to mediocre, that doesnt imply that greatness is next. I dont know if any of the rookie QBs will be good. I expect at least 1 will be great. i dont know which one though. Poles gets to stake his reputation on that, or on keeping Justin. But if you dont try, youll never get a great one, and I dont think Justin will ever be great on the scoreboard. I think that the floor for rookie QBs isnt as low as you think either. If you pick the wrong one, I doubt they will be unserviceable. I doubt that if they dont hit that they will be functionally that much worse than Fields has been if at all. You wont get the highlight plays, but youll get an offense that is recognizable as football. So I dont see a lot of upside to Fields, and I dont see as much downside to a rookie. The biggest selling point for keeping Fields is the haul you get with that #1 pick. But a franchise QB is worth even more, if you can get it right.
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So youre saying that because a good QB has bad games, that means that a QB who has only ever had one game over 300 yards is as good as Mahomes because Mahomes is bad like Fields sometimes? I just dont get it. Weve seen 3 years of Fields, and Im not judging him on stats, I know the context he was in - I just watch the film and see that Fields doesnt show he has it to play QB within a system. And Its not me saying it, all kinds of pundits, those who like Fields too, know that this is his problem. Why do you want to hitch the Bears future to a QB who hasnt shown he can play the position?
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I mean Kmet. He can block a safety. But more to your point, Bowers would be great helping clean up trash in the flats and on the perimeter.
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for sure a good TE that you utilize well in the offense can be a huge weapon, and all the great QBs and teams had them. Ever since the west coast routes were discovered, and body position became as important as getting free into space, the big power forwards at TE in the NFL have increased in value to their teams a lot. Kmet has taken a while for the light to come on, but he seems to be ascending and he is still young. Bowers is another level of athlete though. And to your point about blocking on the perimeter, why didnt Getsy ever do that? No matter what I say about JF, Getsy is a turd in his own right too.
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I totally agree. I think Wright is going to be a Hall Of Famer before it's all over, and i said so before his first snap. 25 years from now I'll remind you all again LOL Stats are funny, with some players they tell a story, with others they actually hide the story. And if it's PFF doing the stats, then all bets are off! You gotta watch the all 22 and/or the behind the QB tape, and you gotta watch the player you're judging. And you need to have some decent guess at what they were supposed to do on that play too. But yeah, Wright is a beast you can build around for a decade or more. I was very pleased with all of our rookies really. Scott needs to get more dialed in, but who knows really, the whole passing game was screwed. Whatever the reason. But Scott aside, the rookies all got significantly better across the season.