BearFan PHX

I hear your logic. I dont think the light is ever going to come on for Fields, but if you think it's a good possibility, (and youre not alone in that), then cool. But just consider that if you're wrong in that, we dont sniff the #1 pick again, and are doomed to hell until the defense fades and we can win fewer than 3 games. Last time we had to strip the roster to get here. So thats many years off. On the other hand, if you draft a rookie and they do OK it doesnt really matter if Juston goes and balls out somewhere else - then youre still on schedule and can build around the rookie QB. I do know how seductive that treasure trove thats offered form #1 is, but then again there is someone who cant wait to pay it because they think Caleb is worth more. And if he IS the guy they say, then hes worth a LOT more. (or some other top QB if you prefer) But even if you trade down a few slots and take a Maye or Daniels or whatever, youve got a rookie deal window, and a top first round pick QB to work with. And there is less risk in that, than there is in developing Justin who has 3 years on film against NFL defenses not seeing the WRs. I believe that from where Im standing right now, there's a 1 in 3 chance that if we draft Caleb, he will be a HOF QB and win multiple superbowls for us. 1/3 HOF & SBs, 1/3 serviceable top 10 QB in the league, 1/3 bust. I think you gotta punch that ticket or have a really compelling reason not to, and two extra first round picks isnt it for me. I dont see 2 extra first rounders taking us to SB wins. Not like a franchise type QB can. But if you think Caleb will bust, and Justin will flourish, then obviously everything Ive just said doesnt mean much. But I think there are more winning outcomes with a rookie QB than with Justin, and the stakes are so high this year.

well said.

Because Williams is looking for deeper routes to come open, and Fields takes the ball down and runs. When Fields doesnt pull the trigger on his first read, he usually bails and then improvises. if he throws after that, it's not at the break point of a route, but free form sandlot stuff. Which is fun to watch with NFL level players. When Williams isn't taking his first read, it's because he is looking for a homerun throw. Not done looking at the play, but being too greedy; waiting for the longest route to reach its break. Not giving up on the routes as designed altogether. The difference is Williams is still in structure at that point, and Fields has already broken the play.

You're right that you dont want to get financially over your skis until you're in a superbowl contending phase. But I think every GM has a generic cap allocation map based on positions. Probably two of them, one with a rookie deal QB and another with a top vet QB deal. And I think you want to be disciplined and not overspend for guys unless they fit your ideals. Poles has done a great job of that. But when you find that guy who is the right fit for one of your important positions you spend the money because that's who you were saving it for anyway. What you want to avoid is spending your full position allotment on a guy who is just a 75%er just because they were the best available free agent. And the reason is that you marry these guys for at least four years, and you want to make sure he's your best option for the forseeable future, not just this one offseason. We've done too much of that over our crappy years. So in general, I think you're right, and Poles has been disciplined and wont break the bank just because he can, but whenever the right player becomes available, all bets are off, because you had space in your plan for a true stud at that position all along, and here is the opportunity? I havent particularly identified anyone in specific for that scenario in this years free agent group, but they could come in trade too and not be on that list.

Ah, ok Im hearing you more clearly now. I would assume that if Waldron thinks he can unlock Justin, that we might well be keeping Fields. Of course i think that'd be a mistake, but your point is a fair one. If there are teams that would take a flyer on Fields, then why couldnt Poles do that too. And for sure i am not really in the business of predicting what Poles WILL do, just what I think he SHOULD do. I dont claim a crystal ball at all. I do think I can guess at Fields' ceiling now, but not at Poles' choice. So we dont disagree about that point you made. Also, to the point of drafting a QB and keeping Justin, I'm not a fan (I'll say why in a sec), but I realize that if they do that, and even if Im right about Fields, the damage isn't fatal. We'd still have our rookie, and we'd move ahead on schedule. So to me the critical move is to get the rookie. keeping Fields would only be a small problem in my opinion. To me, you take the rookie QB and then you have a vet who mentors the rookie, and keeps the seat warm until the rookie is ready. We've done that with Mike Glennon and Andy Dalton. i think people didnt realize that their role was to be replaceable. We paid them a lot of money, but if you want to pay a fighter to go down int he 3rd round, that costs, and these guys knew their roles. But I dont see Fields as filling that role at all. First off hes not a master of reading NFL defenses, so he cant really mentor the rookie. He doesnt model discipline in structure. Also there is a question of the offensive scheme. Some say that the key to getting the most out of Fields is to make an offense just for him. But if you do that, is it the same offense youre asking the rookie to learn? Will it be the best offense for them to thrive? So, for example, if you take Maye, youre probably building a pocket passing offense. So if we keep Fields to run that offense until the rookie is ready, it seems like it's gonna be messy. And if you tailor the offense to Fields, then what is Maye learning? But as long as we get a rookie QB who is projected to be a starter for us, so a top candidate, we can survive whatever goes on with Fields. So I started leaving that scenario in my comments because my fear is really about skipping getting a rookie QB. Poles could "make a mistake" in my opinion and keep Fields, but if he drafts a rookie QB too, then it's not a fatal mistake. But I believe that if we dont take a top rookie QB, and stick with Fields, it'll kill the window we created with the 2022 tank season and it all falls apart in a couple years when these defensive players all come up for new contracts. To the point about Geno Smith, I'd just say that if it was common for reclamation QB projects to work out, wed see a lot more of it. If something is only 5% likely, it means you can find examples to cite, but 19 times out of 20 you lose the bet. It's that POSSIBLE vs LIKELY thing again.

LOL If Fields could read defenses at even just a pretty good level, his running would put him over the top and he'd be a top 5 QB. No doubt a QB with legs adds a whole other dimension to what the defense has to defend against, which should make the passing easier! But without the core competency, it just doesnt work. It'd be like having a running back who was a genius at cutting and breaking tackles, but just couldnt run forward at all. Without the core skill, the additional ones arent enough. Now I hear that some people think a new coach and situation will unlock that. And if they do, he will be a really good QB. I just dont personally see the film that shows me it's in there. It was his #1 weakness coming out of college too. But, someone is gonna bet a 2nd or 1st rounder that they can unlock him, and if they do, it will be a huge upside for them if they succeed. I just wouldnt bet on it myself. I think it is really unlikely.

I hear ya. I was kind of thinking that there are a number of names that look good to me at that #9 spot, but if you or the Bears have their eye on a particular player, then by all means, I wouldnt let a possible 4th rounder stand in the way of that.

If Atlanta wants Justin and is willing to provide that much draft capital, Id prefer not to swap #9 with #8 and make them make change another way, like a 4th rounder.

A scientist gathers data and draws conclusions. A lawyer starts from a conclusion and then looks for data to support it.

it feels like youre trying to say that youve caught me in some inconsistency. But this is the same thing Ive been saying all along. It is POSSIBLE that a new coach will unlock Fields, he has talent, but based on years of film going back to college, he continually displays a huge hole in his game which is a fatal flaw so I dont believe it is LIKELY. Thats not a contradiction. it's just the truth of the matter. But more to the point, why are we trying to prove each other wrong, rather than discussing football?

20 is generally too early to take a center, but its where im seeing that JPJ guy going in some updated mocks. But you said take best OL avail, so if its an OT or OG thats cool too. Plus we dont even know yet what we're gonna get in free agency. Maybe by the draft some more positions on the OL will be filled.

Yeah I have since found it on youtube, and he was very confident in his voice. and he said that all you need is two teams that want him to bring the price to that level, and of course thats right. Another first round pick is greatly welcome! Maybe we could get that center near pick #20 or so if its not a high pick. Bears offseasons have felt like video games the last couple of years!

theres a difference between the #1 overall pick, and a first rounder. If that's what you were saying? to the point of whether Justin sucks or not, I think we all know he is a tremendous athlete. He has a GREAT arm. He's accurate, throws the long ball. Hes a hard worker, a great leader, he improvises really well. Hes exciting to watch and sells tickets. All that is true and those are reasons why other teams may wish to try to make a reclamation project out of Justin. And we also know that Justin has a big shortcoming in that he doesn't read defenses well, doesn't pull the trigger on open receivers and does most of his best work after he's broken the play and is improvising. Somewhere there are coaches that think they can break him of that habit. I doubt anyone thinks they are going to win a superbowl with Fields unless he does fix those issues. But Nagy couldn't unlock him, and lost his job. Getsy couldn't unlock him and did lose his job. Eberflus almost (perhaps) lost his job too. That's why he sucks, and why he is interesting to some teams. It's why some people want to trade him and others want to keep him. It isnt that one or the other is wrong, theyre both true. But you know all of this of course already.

WOW. If that happens then someone is definitely putting their money where their mouth is on Justin. I guess you would need to have two teams that felt that way, because if it was only one, then the price wouldnt go up to a first. That's very good news. I wonder where he will land.

that's extremely interesting. do you know where he said it? id love to hear it in context. He's usually right and doesnt just put out rumors.

sounds like a ton of fun - please try to see how Caleb is socially with the other QBs - like do they initiate conversations with him, does he initiate with them, do they laugh together etc.

someone posted a link to a former Jets scout who worked under Parcells and he thinks Caleb is a bust and Rattler is the man of the draft. It might have been adam who posted it? If Im wrong, whoever posted it, please take credit. I found it here from one of you guys. He likes Milton and Daniels too. Milton is very interesting to me. I need to watch a lot more film next month. https://firstroundmock.com/2024/01/shocking-2024-nfl-draft-board-released-quarterbacks/

Yeah, Ive been seeing his name all over. Im intrigued, but Im wary of saying ahything about any of them until i watch about a million Youtube predraft videos that havent even been made yet. Especially long all 22s that show a game and not just highlights. But he's a perfect example of a guy who could be the best one in the draft (some say), but isnt getting enough love, although it is starting to come now. Every year in March and April QBs rocket up the board as the hype rolls in. And sometimes, it's right! It's gonna be a dynamic ride for sure. Is Caleb that much better that the fighting for slots 2 through 5 are where the chaos will stay, or is stuff yet to come out that's gonna throw this all into question. And if it does, how do we know it's not smoke from Washington wanting us to pass on Caleb for example. Fun stuff.

I think there are a bunch of really intriguing QBs in the draft this year. I wouldnt be 100% sure that JJ McCarthy isnt gonna come into the league and ball out, but of course the likelihood of that is less than some of the bigger names. And you're right about making them work for it. If you've identified that Bo Nix is the cream here for example and everyone is missing it, then there's no particular reason to take him at #1 and miss out on Caleb Fever trade downs. Then again, you don't want to lose him to another team that might be thinking the same, so it's about balancing risk and reward. It sure ain't easy. Luckily Poles seems to excel at this kind of analysis. He plays the draft very well. The key is going to be the QB analysis and grading that goes on at Halas Hall. I don't mind taking the #2 guy from a list that our scouts say are both Tier 1 similar prospects, and getting some draft value in return. There's so much chaos in QB outcomes, that if you have guys ranked in the same neighborhood, taking the lower one makes a lot of sense. But if in the end Williams really is in a stratosphere of his own, then we should just thank the football gods that he is available to us, and take him at #1.

love these contrarian articles. theyre so helpful in trying to get a handle on what's true and what isn't pre draft.

Predicting what Poles WILL do even based on informed opinions is difficult. You never know what someone is thinking. But what Poles SHOULD do seems really clear. At least as far as keeping Fields as the presumed starter is concerned. The Caleb Williams question is murkier, although I think in time that will become clearer too as more film and info are available to us. There's a lot of Fields love out there, and I think it's more fan thinking than logical. The guy is super likeable, incredibly athletic, and kind of an underdog. I get why people root for him. But as we've said a million times, there are gaping holes in his game, and they are right in the core competency for quarterbacking. We might keep Fields, but we need to draft a high pick rookie QB with the idea that he is the probable starter when he's ready. But I dont think Fields is particularly suited to the "temporary vet who guides and then makes way for a rookie" role.

Adam Schefter is usually pretty reliable. he's not a clickbait guy, and he is a true insider reporter. "ESPN insider Adam Schefter appeared on The Pat McAfee Show, where he explained the belief around the league is Chicago will draft Williams with the first overall pick." "the feeling around the league seems to be that they’ll wind up trading Justin." https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/other/adam-schefter-widespread-consensus-that-bears-will-draft-caleb-williams-at-no-1/ar-BB1hODaX

yeah all good points, and they go to the question of who you think Williams will be. i sure dont have an answer to that question, but if I dont think he's gonna be a HOFer, then the trade is an easy option. But if he is one of those rare QBs, he's worth 6 or 8 first rounders. And i wish to hell I knew which he is gonna be.

Dude, Im not beefing with him, he was scolding me yesterday saying that the only reason I feel like i do about Justin is that Im a hater and have it out for Justin. And we had very nice interactions at the same minutes on other threads. Im not looking to antagonize him at all. And it didnt make me "mad," but it was an ad hoc attack, so i said so, just to rebut the point, not because my honor was offended or anything weird like that. Then today hes all "oh the fighting" and i thought that was hypocritical, since he was just doing it yesterday. Fighting passive aggressively is still fighting. And I want it to stop as much as you do! What you dont know is I wrote a really nice letter to him a couple weeks ago. He read it, but didnt respond. And hes been saying whatever about me since. So I dunno, hes mad at me, and being passive aggressive about it. I always got along well with him here too - at least 15 years. probably a lot more, from the old site. Its all because Im TOO sure of myself about Justin Fields. It's offending people obviously. But that's crap. I'm not trying to talk about anything except criticisms of where we disagree about football. And it all comes because he didnt like what happened with Stinger. Ok I get that. I still would have done what I did. But I'm not trying to keep any of this alive. Once we get past Fields, Im not even sure of anything. Nothing I write on any it is so sure of myself or anything. No one can predict what will happen with the rookie QBs. I'll tell ya what. I wont comment back about any personal comments for 24 hours. Ill talk about football, but ill give anyone that needs to say whatever nasty thing they want to about me 24 hours to do it and I wont ever respond to anything they say during that time. I'll give everyone the last word. And then, please lets get back to just critiquing me on film or stats or whatever.

One other point to help explain. I am not sitting here angry thinking people are attacking me. I am debating football, and people make arguments, and some of the arguments are pointed at my character, and Im not mad about THAT either! Im just saying, that's not a good argument, and not why Fields sucks. Im not feeling attacked and fighting - Im just saying "thats a bad argument" and "thats an adhoc attack so its not a good argument" thats all Im not like seething that anyone would say that i hate Justin, Im just saying thats not a good argument.