BearFan PHX

me too re: ads. the bright side is i can now gain muscle and lose fat and invest in bitcoin.

I'm watching Eberflus' presser, and so far a couple things stand out. 1) He feels more serious. The easy goofy smile is gone. His energy feels a little tougher. Im thinking that getting his butt kicked around this offseason has got his attention. This could be a good thing. 2) He mentioned that the Jennifer King was a 7 time All American in tackle football. She played 12 seasons as QB and WR in the womens league on the Carolina Phoenix. Cool. That assuages my worries earlier. If shes a dynamic competitor with experience playing professional football, then I feel differently about what I said earlier. She held the same position "assistant running backs coach" for the Washington Commander the past three years. She also coached at the Senior Bowl. Honestly, I didn't know there really was a womens pro tackle football league other than some gimmick ones like the lingerie league. And some of those girls are freakin intense too, but playing in lingerie makes me take it less seriously LOL But anyway, she seems qualified AND experienced.

if the question was Bears or Trade, then Trade would be favored, but in this case, the "Trade" option is split into a bunch of teams, so Bears beats them each, if not in aggregate.

yeah the Hill chart is awesome. It's much more accurate, and it comes from the actual data. For trades, rule of thumb is a 2025 pick is worth one round less because you have to wait a year for it. I love trading down, but I also love having impact players at key positions! It all depends how the board falls I guess, if a great player is there at a position of need like WR, OT or DL, or if we love Bowers, I could see us standing pat. But if the draft falls so that running backs, linebackers, quarterbacks and cornerbacks are the value picks at #9, we are definitely trading down. And if the scouts have a nice long list of sleepers, we might trade #9 down, pick up a JPJ type and still get a swing or two at some other guys. Plus, if we are taking a QB at #1, it stands to reason we'd have other picks from having traded Justin too, so we could use those. And if we keep Justin, then we'll get more picks trading back the #1 pick too. I think our draft and trade possibilities all depend on three things: 1) who are our best QB options including rookies and Fields 2) what we can get in free agency 3) how the draft falls on the day Somewhere in all of that, I assume we will get a new center, and probably at least one other OL too, maybe more We'll also get a FS for sure. We'll also add at least one new QB, no matter what else happens. I cant see us not getting at least 2 new WRs We'll find a DE, maybe a stud but at least one for the rotation If there is a stud 3T we will try to take him, but if not, we are still getting at least one more for the rotation We might resign Billings and or Jones if need be for this year We will add a running back. I really like Foreman, but if he isn't back, they'll get another. They might look to pick up a TE too. Again, stud if he falls, or situational. So we have a need for quality starters at QB(?), OC, FS, WR And we can use more talent at OG, OT, DE, DT, TE, WR, RB I am assuming we sign or tag Jaylon Johnson too in this.

I agree that trading a blue chipper for a bunch of mid round players is no bargain. I feel the same about passing on a #1 pick QB too. So we agree. The Rich Hill trade value chart is the most up to date model, it's based on real modern trade data , and is a lot better than the older Jimmy Johnson one, It says moving from 9 to 15 is worth about the 4th or 5th pick of the 3rd round. And if there is a specific player falling, especially a QB, the value can increase. But probably not enough to get JPJ - I think that has to come from a trade for Justin Fields. My guess is Fields is worth about what it would take to snag JPJ in the draft with nothing left over. Best case - Pittsburgh's first rounder #20 is probably about where I think JPJ is gonna go. https://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Value-Chart-Rich-Hill.asp

this is good analysis, it's what I see too.

I assume it would be with consideration they get from trading Fields? Another scenario is to trade down the #9 pick. Not sure Im a fan of that one.

Im torn between both of these ideas. They each make sense. I guess I dont want a rookie starting center day one, or at least I dont want to have assume he will be ready. If a JPJ proves hes good in camp, then great, but I wouldnt want to bet on that happening so early. But on the other hand, I hate letting short term decisions force lesser long term outcomes. i LOVE the idea of JPJ. I dunno how thatd happen, but maybe if we got a 2nd in the package for Justin etc. But assuming we could get JPJ at the right draft value, I wouldnt be against paying a vet a one year deal to give JPJ a chance to grow. But spending capital on the same position twice is a luxury we maybe cant afford? Or if the vet is cheap, then how good is he really gonna be for our QBs? One thing I think Poles has done a great job of is not getting tied down to journeyman free agents long term because he needed them short term. Maybe he will surprise us with a move.

makes sense. Do you expect center and free safety in free agency? I kinda do, and maybe a DL or WR too. And however that goes will probably affect that #9 pick. I think we will see a free agent like OC Lloyd Cushenberry, because even JPJ is a specimen for sure, we probably wont want a rookie center to start day 1?

I dont think Mongo is saying men wont listen to women, I think hes saying they wont listen (the same way) to men who havent done it either.

hes very likeable for sure.

Because there is a difference between talent and experience. Mahomes, the generational talent sat for a year. Rodgers and Love both sat. It's a good way to acclimate a rookie without throwing him into the fire. Let him get used to everything and log some snaps against NFL speed in practice before he learns under fire. My guess is Williams starts by week 8. Maybe sooner. Depends on how he is in camp.

OK, so Justin was on Ahman Ra and Equinimeous St Browns podcast yesterday and he was asked about unfollowing the Bears. He said that he not only unfollowed the Bears but the NFL too - he said he doesnt want to have to read about him and Caleb Williams every day when he looks at social media to relax. Makes perfect sense. who could blame him for that?

I totally agree. Anyone should be allowed to do anything they are qualified for. If a woman is good enough to play in the NFL for example, then I havent really heard anyone object to that. There have been some female goalies in the NHL for example. Cool. But if you're not qualified, then I don't think this trend of giving out spots just for increased representation is a good idea at all. It's the different between equality of opportunity vs equity of outcome. Everyone deserves a good shot at opportunity, but you dont gain anything by ignoring merit, ability and experience just to make the outcome look diverse.

mm hmm but even me, Mr Hug-gate thinks this is a nothing burger LOL

agree. I wouldnt be surprised if we sign a free agent to be the starter until Williams is ready, I dunno if that's Bagents role yet? But i think Bagent is an excellent QB, but he needs to develop more arm strength, which I think is possible. But even so, I dunno if Bagent is ready to be the starter until Williams is ready. But all in all, I think Bagent is eventually going to be the best backup in the league.

Is it possible Fields was never following their account? I can imagine that when you talk to the coaches day to day you dont really need to follow the media department of the team. Of all the things to love about Justin or worry about Justin, this is a nothing burger I think?

Jordan Reid is really smart, and does a great job answering some pretty smart questions by Courtney Cronin.

Im not saying a LOT is a more important need than those other positions right now, but it's on the upgrade list, and if the draft aligns a certain way, I could see it. I could also see a WR, Bowers, 3T, DE, etc for sure as well

sure, but hes going to fix the middle of the line now. A free agent center, a lesser free agent OG...

I was including LOT not as a position of need per se, but just as a premiere position, especially for those that question Braxton's skills. If we get a top notch DE in free agency, and dont trade the #9 pick, Id expect it to go to WR or LOT, or Bowers. Center, OG and safety are unlikely positions to take so high, and Ill bet our center issue is addressed in free agency too. If there's a stud 3T, thats a possibility too. But a great LOT is a great thing to have, and if it falls that way, i could see us doing that.

I can see them trading #9 down, but there will definitely be a legit quality WR, OT or DE there. If we get a top notch DE in free agency, I can see them taking the best WR or OT at that spot too. I think the roster is getting near the point that we arent looking to add a lot of functional players, but more looking for fewer excellent ones now? Free agency should fill a lot of holes to allow for that kind of thinking too.

so far Poles has been very disciplined and hasnt been over active in free agency for sure, but I think that narrative a little bit deceptive too, since he has acquired the two most important players on our team in trades as well as spent quite a bit on free agents. Our top 10 paid players (by contract AAV) are: Montez Sweat $25M (trade) DJ Moore $21M (trade) Tremaine Edmunds $18M (free agent) Cole Kmet $13M (re-signed draft pick) Nate Davis $10M (free agent) DeMarcus Walker $7M (free agent) TJ Edwards $7M (free agent) Darnell Wright $5M (1st round draft pick) Justin Fields $5M (1st round draft pick) Andrew Billings $4M (free agent) I think it's more that Poles doesnt throw money at people, and waits for excellent players to become available by whatever method possible. I dont think he avoids free agents, but I DO think he avoids big money free agents that he doesnt want to be married to. He's been willing to wait an extra year to complete the rebuild rather than reach too far too fast. We had a string of GMs that got the best free agents available that they could afford every year. And they often underperform. Davis is a good example of that right now. Poles has not done too much of that, and thats good. It's much more cap healthy to make great picks in the draft. And Poles has done a LOT of that for sure. But we have a lot of free agent money this year to spend, and we have holes at FS, OC, WR, OG and DE. We will sign at least one impact free agent at one of those positions, and likely at least two before the draft. Poles will also sign inexpensive free agents to fill out all of those positions headed into the draft, so we arent stuck picking for need, and can take something like best player available at pick #9 of WR, DE or OT. We might even see a free agent RB if we dont keep Foreman.

Poles has shown an understanding and willingness to upgrade position groups that needed it, and the OL rebuild began last year with Wright and Davis. Davis hasn't played up to his potential in Chicago, but he has played very well before. Im sure Poles attention on that group is going to increase this offseason. Poles is a former offensive lineman too, so I think he'll be active in upgrading that group - especially so if he is taking a rookie QB, and I guess especially so if he is keeping Fields too. It's a clear need now. Wright is solid at RT. We will absolutely be picking up a new starting center too - that's a no brainer. Jenkins is good, but has been injured, and Davis is talented, but has been inconsistent, so I expect we will bring in an OG too, and between the three of them, we should manage to get two good ones on the field. That OG should probably be looked at as a future starter if not sooner. So only question is really Braxton Jones - do people think he is good enough, or does he need a replacement? that #9 pick is almost certainly going WR, DE or OT. Maybe a trade down to get two of those positions? And we have a lot of free agency cash to spend too. I bet we will have at least 3 new players on OL this year who can compete for starting roles: 1) a new starting center, most likely from free agency 2) a rookie OG to compete with Jenkins and Davis 3) a free agent OG 4) a possible LOT from pick #9 or free agency.

Well you want to make sure you have some picks for other positions, but Williams, Moore and Harrison Jr would be a dream scenario for sure. Can you imagine? We'd be amazing. It's interesting that this is an NFL mock, and not a Chicago-centric one too.