AZ54

Pressure does funny things to people. It is especially hard to take over an organization and turn it around. It's even more awkward when you have to deal with people who you know are not up to the task. Sure Flus hired Getsy and Williams but we'll never know how far down the list they were amng the coaches he wanted. We do know it took quite a bit of time to assemble that staff. He's been around the league a long time too so he knows a lot of coaches. Of course he fired both so he saw it, knew it. I'm pretty sure he knew it with Getsy in year 1 when he forced him to revise the offense and they came out against NE and won the game with Fields running. It was easier to fire Williams and Flus to take over that role but there were no good options for that on offense. All that responsibility still lands on his shoulders and Flus knew Poles could have easily justified firing him. Under that pressure is where you see people sometimes start doing things they otherwise wouldn't do to try and get a spark and win a game. Remember Matt Nagy and his "cute" plays that got out of hand. In the end I think it was the defensive turnaround that saved Flus. To be fair, the offense did improve as well in the 2nd half once Flus had better command of the D. You get a huge boost in confidence when your boss tells you I understand it wasn't you and you are building this thing in the right direction. We'll see how it plays out but roster talent and coaching talent are no longer issues he has to work around. That frees up his mind to focus more on the head coaching job. He still has a young QB and after the Fields/Getsy experience I expect he'll make sure to be around Caleb/Waldron early on to make sure things are going in the right direction. On the defensive side he kept Jon Hoke to help as defensive passing game coordinator and Washington seems better able to handle the Dline and run defense setup. He kept Hightower for continuity on special teams.

There are tipping points in sports where the individual stats don't matter as much as the collection of talent, and then teams start to dominate. The EPA metric might be very good at capturing that but it's still a historical trend. Each team each season is different. I think what happened in Detroit last year captures that. Nobody was talking about them until after the first quarter of the season, or more. In 2022 they were in bottom right quadrant and last year they moved up (just barely) into the top right where it seems the good teams exist. That also kinda backs up my point that Detroit isn't all that elite. What is noteworthy is the massive jump up the Bears made last year from way down in the bottom left quadrant (low D, low O) to center of the chart. If Caleb can avoid the deer-in-the-headlights crap we saw on offense in the first 6 games last year, and our D can avoid the cluster of injuries we had to the DBs early on there is no reason not to expect us to move up on D and O this year. Plus we have better depth on both sides of the ball this year.

I think there are too many mouths to feed and an OC who knows how to spread the ball around. Even if Williams were to throw for 4000 yds. Give 800 each to DJ, Keenan, and Odunze. That’s 2400. Give 500 to Kmet and 400 to Everett. Now at 3300. Here again the OC likes to use TEs and with DBs focused on the WRs these guys figure to be the easy mismatch for Caleb to take advantage of. Give 300 to Swift. Now at 3600. There will easily be a cluster of others like Scott or Jones or Roschon who collectively get 400. To see Odunze get 1000 I think we need an injury to Moore or Allen for a few games so he gets more reps. We’d also need Caleb to throw for something crazy like 4500 yards.

The Bears did right by waiting on Conner Williams. He's had another month to not just heal the knee but gain strength. Now they have the full training staff in place and it's easy to bring him in for a thorough eval. There is no DE available who will dramatically change the roster, they'll just be expensive depth pieces on a 1yr rental. I'm not happy with Nate Davis so far this offseason. Williams, if healthy, presents a chance to give Caleb an elite Center for the next 4 seasons. We have the money now if we choose and can sort out the oline future next season but unless there is a dramatic turnaround Davis isn't likely in the picture for 2025. Even if Davis did play well, assuming Jenkins does the same and is healthy I think the team would rather build around Jenkins who definitely is putting in the offseason work to get better. IMO Bates is a better Guard than Center and sitting between Williams and Wright he'd be fine. Translation for me: I'm holding onto my options with Williams as long as possible to validate his health. Then I decide.

As expected the contract chatter before camp was much ado about nothing. Yes, Phx you are correct all that contract 'ownership" stuff looks to have been nothing but noise and distraction. We'll see how the career and contracts go in the future but I'll forever wonder what Tom Brady told Caleb when they were talking over the summer. Many players make their money off playing (i.e. the contract). Brady was never focused on being the highest paid, he was focused on making his money off winning, and still is earning big money off that. You need to believe in yourself to make that happen... https://sports.yahoo.com/tom-brady-retires-record-475-180432340.html Brady repeatedly signed below-market deals with New England to help its roster-building under the cap, but he still retires with a record $293 million in playing salary and bonuses. Sportico estimates Brady earned $180 million off the field over the past 22 years from endorsements, licensing, appearances and memorabilia. Taken all together, his career earnings are estimated at $475 million, which would rank No. 22 among athletes all-time, not adjusted for inflation, and is a record haul for an NFL player while active.

Odunze is signed.

Well earned! If the standard is that you changed the way the game had to be played when you were on the field then nobody is more deserving. Can't wait for the ceremony. https://x.com/ProFootballHOF/status/1812905556815798409

Sign Connor Williams.

100% this makes sense. The biggest data point for that is the fact Odunze hasn’t signed. #1 picks overall may or may not have details to iron out but not really at #9. Also we’ve seen nothing from Odunze, nor Williams, that they don’t want to get to work right away. Williams is focused on setting records in his career. The first one he can get is to be the first #1 overall QB to win his first NFL game.

I doubt they change a safety this far into his career, especially one new to the team and scheme. Add in that our safety depth is a big problem, at least IMO. Gordon's backup might be sliding Tyrique Stevenson inside and then put Smith outside. As a physical CB Stevenson is built well for that role. He might not have the elite quickness of Gordon but as discussed in the article I think he has the other attributes needed plus we play more zone coverage. This is definitely a backstory to watch in training camp.

Good article with some interesting background on how NB are used. Also the '22 draft was insane for DB talent. https://www.matchquarters.com/p/golden-age-of-the-nickel-defense-titans-mccreary

Totally classless. I support Pix having the right to his opinion. I support you having the right to yours as well.

Someone put part of that on X and was making a big deal about how accurate Williams was on warm up throws to receivers who were jogging.

Almost by definition there will be significantly more KR and therefore more KR TDs. It will affect the outcome of games just as Hester did for us. I like it because I'd rather not see the league beholden to the teams with the best QBs. Keep it a team sport in all phases. Poles thought enough of special teams to use a 4th Rd pick on a punter. I still enjoy watching the kicks and kick returns precisely because of that unknown factor... be it a fumble, muffed punt, big return to flip the field, etc.

How is a team “better” if they can’t cover kick or even punt returns?

Hard to imagine anything worse than watching touchback after touchback. What is the point of paying millions of dollars for coaches and players and running a non competitive play?

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Believe it or not that is actually just a minimum wage contract for the NFL. Go look at min salary for each year. No risk to the team whatsoever. If he makes the practice squad it’s done on a different deal. https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/cba/minimum/

It certainly feels like we're going to add one more decent vet FA. I'd say most likely on the Dline but can't rule out Williams at Center.

AI is complete and utter BS. To borrow a phrase from the 1980s.... garbage in garbage out. Plus on the top of the "data set" they are using or not using you have absolutely no idea how that AI is programmed. The most common AI systems in use today are simply plain text readers. Meaning you can interact with the computer via everyday language. Which is cool but you still have no clue what the underlying program is designed to do. Drug company using AI to find new cancer drugs... but does it program it to find drugs that maximize profits? Is the most economical for consumers? Most efficacious? Just using a theoretical example people can relate to.

I watched the Kay Adam’s interviews from Halas Hall today. It’s safe to say it’ll be game on in practice.

I’m just joking around a little bit although I am at the point where I just want to see him throwing too NFL caliber receivers. Fortunately we actually have some of them on our roster now. Smile.

The past doesn’t matter. Now that it’s done he must be the one.

Much appreciated!

Thank you!