AZ54

I don't think we have any reason to look at a QB in the later rounds. We just paid Tyler Bray $45k guaranteed and around $900k salary to be our 3rd string QB. He knows this offense far better than any mid-to-late Rd rookie will this year. We also have two QBs who have taken their teams to the playoffs, one to a Superbowl. Whether either will return to form is a question but that won't be solved by adding a subpar prospect who will need at least one and likely two years of backup play to get rid of his bad habits. Note his physical limitations (arm strength) won't be getting better in Soldier Field's weather conditions. If both Foles and Trubisky fail this year then having Anthony Gordon on the roster will not change the fact we need to draft a starting caliber QB in 2021. We know Foles won't get us great QB play, he's a serviceable QB but he could win with a great defense. That's Foles' ceiling, it's a known commodity and we should not expect more. The only question is if Trubisky can achieve his ceiling for which his potential is much higher. If Trubisky continues to struggle as he did last year then we'll be going with Foles. The only irony here is that for a missed FG Trubisky would have beaten Foles in the playoff game. I have no clue who exactly was left on the board in that draft with Gordon at 196 but there are many players who can be capable backups in this area of the draft who will have future starting potential: Ben Bartch OG (Adam already drafted an OG), Joe Reed WR, Dane Jackson CB, Lynn Bowden Jr. WR. Since Gordon will not answer the starting QB question for 2021 we should make the rest of the roster stronger so we can trade up/whatever next year to get the QB. Guys like Gordon who struggle outside the numbers and downfield end up as a backups or maybe occasional starters. Yet you can find that type of QB every year in the draft, or in FA as a backup if you prefer experience. https://sports.yahoo.com/quantifying-quarterbacks-anthony-gordon-164323496.html Quantifying Quarterbacks is an NFL Draft focused quarterback charting project geared toward providing as much information about as much of a quarterback's recent career as possible. Over 20 data points are recorded for any given pass attempt, ranging from down-and-distance, personnel grouping, play-action, depth of target, accuracy, and much more. Quantifying Quarterbacks charts the entirety of a quarterback's final college season, as well as a smaller sample (four games) from their previous season. All of this charting is done manually by me during and after the college football season. For a more in-depth look at what exactly Quantifying Quarterbacks is, here is a link to last year's final product: 2019 Quantifying Quarterbacks. Anthony Gordon Charting Profile Distance (Usage Rate)Left OutsideLeft MiddleRight MiddleRight OutsideTotal 20+ (9.83%)2/11 (2 INT)4/6 (3 TD)5/11 (2 TD, 1 INT)4/12 (2 TD, 1 INT)15/40 (7 TD, 4 INT) 16-20 (4.67%)1/14/6 (2 INT)2/26/10 (2 INT)13/19 (4 INT) 11-15 (13.76%)0/114/22 (1 TD, 1 INT)15/21 (2 TD, 1 INT)7/12 (2 TD, 1 INT)36/56 (5 TD, 3 INT) 6-10 (11.79%)3/4 (1 TD)9/12 (1 TD)19/27 (2 TD)4/5 (1 TD)35/48 (5 TD) 1-5 (34.64%)6/6 (1 TD)43/51 (2 TD)57/68 (1 TD, 2 INT)11/16 (1 TD)117/141 (5 TD, 2 INT) 0 (22.36%)3/438/40 (3 TD)36/36 (1 TD)10/1187/91 (4 TD) Total (407 plays)15/27 (2 TD, 2 INT)112/137 (10 TD, 3 INT)134/165 (8 TD, 4 INT)42/66 (6 TD, 4 INT)303/395 (26 TD, 13 INT) Games Charted: North Colorado, Houston, New Mexico State, UCLA, Oregon, Utah, Oregon State, Washington (all from 2019) CHARTING EXTRAS Blatant Drops: 9 Forced Adjustments: 11 (2.70%) Contested Drops: 20 Passes Defended: 30 Explosive Plays: 44 (10.81%) Throwaways: 12 Air Raid often gets conflated as "vertical passing offense" when that is not necessarily the case. As for Anthony Gordon's year behind center at Washington State, Mike Leach's Air Raid offense certainly was not a vertical attack. Not even 15% of Gordon's pass attempts were beyond the 15-yard mark -- still an average to slightly below-average rate, but certainly not one of a highly-aggressive offense. Of course, this low percentage of deep passes is in part because Washington State "replaces" running plays with screens and short passing concepts while throwing 50+ times per game, which skews the passing rates away from deep passing. Even still, Gordon's target frequency down the field is no different than the average quarterback, Air Raid or otherwise. Perhaps the most notable trend in Gordon's passing chart is how little he targeted outside the numbers. Just under 25% of Gordon's attempts were to the outside portion of the field. Whereas most quarterbacks have fairly even spreads throughout each of the quadrants, Gordon almost entirely played between the numbers. Given Gordon does not have the strongest arm and only has the one year of tape, it is a minor concern that Gordon seemed unwilling and unable to throw outside the numbers. On only throw outside the numbers, Gordon held just a 61.83% adjusted accuracy rate, which is significantly lower than his base adjusted accuracy of 74.56%. Surely every QB is somewhat worse outside the numbers, but the stark drop-off in accuracy combined with the low target rate is enough evidence for this to be an issue for Gordon's profile. If I were to guess, part of Gordon's issue throwing outside is how lazy his feet are. While Gordon does have a flexible upper body with a strong, consistent release, footwork still plays a role in accuracy, especially when throwing outside the numbers. Gordon often fails to move his feet throughout his progressions or reset them upon throwing, which can lead to issues with his body being discombobulated as he is trying to get the ball out. Gordon is a stud over the middle, though. How much that can outweigh his struggles outside the numbers is up for debate, but a handful of quarterbacks such as Jared Goff, Case Keenum, and Andy Dalton have shown some success despite being notably worse outside the numbers than they are over the middle. Gordon may be able to fall into a similar archetype.

Make sure you watch some full games on him so you get to see his WTF moments.

The value system is and always will be just a baseline reference tool. Teams (not all) have always gone outside that to make deals if they felt it was in their best interest. See Herschel Walked trade, Ditka trades entire draft for a RB, etc. That brings me to your question...where will teams land in the value department. I think without the followup medical info and with the potential lack of OTAs teams will definitely be willing to put more chips on the table to get the sure thing.

I know he reminds me a lot of Hester, drop punt, take it the distance, and then even with some of his quick cuts. Supposedly he has some drop issues too as a receiver but he can also win on some contested catches which is where little guys like Gabriel and Hamler have issues. Aiyuk, like Reagor, still has to learn how to run routes too. It's definitely a mixed bag but it's always like that in Rd 2 and it won't be any different for a CB or OT we select: lots of goodness, some work still needed.

By the way there are a lot of contested catches in that highlight film that you will never see from Hamler. So while Hamler is faster I think Aiyuk and Reagor offer more versatility especially in the red zone. This is the quality character Pace likes the draft... https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2884200-tcus-jalen-reagor-on-why-guerilla-training-will-make-him-the-drafts-best-wr

Speed but more so quickness. I know what he timed at but his game tape is a little better than that. He might not be a 4.30 forty, but I think he's consistently running around 4.4s. That's enough to get behind someone and with his quickness if he learns how to run routes he'll be just fine. AMiller has the quickness in his cuts but he's not running away from anyone. Watch the punt return at 1:40. Aiyuk is very similar in the open field.

We will need a team that either has a significant need like Dallas does at Edge or CB, or a team that has so many picks they'd rather just move up to grab to ensure they get their targeted players. I've done several mocks where Dallas either goes CB in Rd 1 then trades up with us to get Edge in Rd 2 or vice versa. Y'all know Jerry always feels like he has a playoff team right now and needs that one guy to make it work. FWIW I'm not opposed to trading Cohen to help get additional picks. There are a multitude of players in Rd 4 who can provide what he does as a returner/receiver or be better at RB than he is. We might even find a UDFA RB in JJ Taylor who is better as a RB. If we were to draft Reagor then he can handle Cohen's WR role while he learns the playbook. Grab a RB, which we need anyway, on day 3. We still have Patterson for the occasional trick play stuff.

I second that thought on the first 4 picks. I'd be happy with that draft right there. Later instead of the duplicate WR and DTs we should grab someone at OLB, ILB.

It would be interesting on offense. That transition for Claypool would be difficult and I don't see him contributing much his first year. I'd prefer to get two players who can contribute this year (Reagor, and CB, Safety, OT should Leno stumble again).

I agree on that concern. Here's his game against NDSU, a team that's had some pretty good talent in recent years. You will see some mis-steps but when he's got his assignment correct early he's pretty good. He also does a good job navigating through traffic even among the big boys. On some of his blitzes he's like a missile coming through the gap. Same things on plays sometimes when he's 15 yards deep he can close to LOS ahead of his CB. I've watched a couple games of Chinn and Dugger and I'd say Chinn is a much better player at this point.

Yes I could see that happening with GB.

One guy whose opinion I trust on WRs is Steve Smith. If he says 4 or 5 teams are going to take Aiyuk in the first round I believe it will happen. Even if not it would seem he'll be gone before we pick at 43. I wanted one of Reagor or Aiyuk in that spot. We'll see how it shakes it. If there is a run on WRs though it still benefits us because it's more likely someone like Delpit falls to us. http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-network-total-access/0ap3000001108491/Steve-Smith-Sr-One-2020-draft-WR-who-s-being-slept-on

Apparently crazy restructure made his deal so he only has a cap hit of $5.3mil this year. We still have $11.4mil in cap space per OTC. Spotrac still shows Foles with a $15.6mil cap hit this year. https://overthecap.com/salary-cap/chicago-bears/ Not restructured yet: ARob. If that gets done we could have even more cap space available plus we still have Shaheen and Braunecker on the roster. Aside from signing a FA Safety or some bargain shopping among Oline cuts but I'm not sure there's anything else we'll do in FA. Pace could try to sign someone like RRH long term. Instead of using Robinson's deal to free up cap space he could front load it a bit to make 2021 easier.

The ironic part is these are the people who criticize Ryan Pace for his drafts.

Then we better start writing in which S we are going to draft at 43. That's huge hole on our roster right now. I'm reviewing tape of Chinn, Dugger, Delpit, Davis, Winfield. We're not going to get McKinney so its likely among these options. As I've said before Delpit is my preference because I think he'll fit in immediately and be able to contribute. Behind him I like Chinn or possibly Davis. I like Chinn for his upside potential and he's a good fit for the downhill role we need right now. Plus he will be surrounded with veterans to tell him where to go on each play. That should mask his inexperience coming from a smaller school Davis is another athletic talent, might be more of a backend FS type but I don't think we'd be in a bad spot with either one. Winfield seems like a good prospect albeit with a lower ceiling. He's just 5'9" so that alone limits him against TEs, especially critical in the red zone. I think Dugger is going to be lost his first year as he transitions to NFL speed and plays. Athletically he fits the role but suspect special teams is where he starts his career.

It's impossible to know who we gave up by trading back so makes the value proposition a big unknown. One thing is clear from the comments we could have had Zach Baun at 43 and I'd have stayed put and taken him. He puts legitimate depth into our pass rush and he can help cover open field by dropping back into coverage which is something Quinn nor Mack are good at.

He sure sounds like a QB who plans on playing this year. https://www.chicagobears.com/video/nick-foles-excited-for-the-culture-in-chicago

RRH, Nichols, and even Goldman can all provide some pass rush in limited snaps. The issues we had last year was with the injuries, Nichols included, we had no depth and backups like RRH aren't build to handle the heavy snap counts like Hicks. Their effectiveness that we saw early in the season disappeared with the increased snaps. If we can get our Dline rotation going again we'll see lots of contributions from them again especially with Quinn taking a lot of focus from the LT it should open up opportunities for more effective stunts or even blitzes in the B gap (if I got that right) from NB Skrine or one of the ILBs.

If we go to the playoffs we're not getting a new GM. We'll go the route KC did with Andy Reed and let the GM/head coach combo pick the new QB. I'd much prefer that to starting over completely.

RG it is... Adam Jahns https://twitter.com/adamjahns/status/1246100465202483201 #Bears GM Ryan Pace said that Germain Ifedi will play guard. for line coach Juan Castillo. He'll compete for that RG spot.

https://twitter.com/AdamHoge/status/1246128764905553924 Adam Hoge "Nick Foles just said if he didn't agree to "a crazy restructure" the trade wouldn't have happened and he'd still be in Jacksonville. He wanted to be in Chicago and so he made it happen."

Realize we're all just hoping for average QB play.

I think all the Anthony Gordon hype comes from watching his highlights because it can't be because of all the bad throws/reads he makes. We have Foles and Trubisky...two backups if you will. We don't need a 3rd backup QB. That 5th Rd pick could easliy go to adding depth at OLB which we really need. Trevis Gipson, Trevon Hill are a couple and there are a few others. These are all backup type talents for sure. If you want a high energy guy who likely becomes a special teams stalwart go get Alex Highsmith.

Also by making the trade instead of signing a FA QB we stand to get a 6th Rd comp pick next year.