AZ54

This has been all over the Bears fans message boards and such the last week. Comments on some threads have been highly emotional (no shock). I don't really see any surprises in this analysis. I still see a young QB in a new offense with an entirely new WR group and Burton still learning the NFL. Trubisky improved quite a bit over the course of the season and he definitely still has room for improvement. I'm not sure why this is "news" to any NFL fan who has watched many young QBs struggle early in their careers. Nobody knows what trajectory his career will take from here but we do know that he is putting in the work to get better. At this point it seems his floor will likely be that of a good NFL QB (an Alex Smith type), one you can win with. That's not what we want from the #2 overall pick but there are also plenty of flashes of elite play enticing enough to make us wonder what if he puts it all together?

I liked the hiring of Fox at the time and I still have no regrets. I look at him the way I felt about Denny Green when he was hired in AZ (there's your way back machine in the offseason). He's a guy that will help bring in the right talent but ultimately he won't be able to get the most out of it. For a young GM who was still finding his way early on Fox was not a bad person to have around Halas Hall and he did bring in some very good coaches. I think all of that helped steady Pace early on. His first draft didn't reflect it but then everyone was new at Halas Hall and he was working with the old scouting department. A year later you started to see the vision of who he (we) wanted on the roster. We used Fox for a few years to help build the foundation then we went out to get our guy to get us into the Superbowl. Think Doug Collins....Phil Jackson.

He only made himself look like more of an idiot.

Like the kids on a road trip: "Are we there yet?"

Getting there is half the battle, we have to see how well he can tackle. It's not easy for a bigger player to break down at the end of a long sprint and then tackle a guy like Cohen. There's a reason players like McManis can get paid $1.5mil/yr to do this. All eyes will be on the WRs on offense but there is going to be one heck of a special teams battle going on this year. Good luck figuring out the bottom end of our roster this year. On the outside gunner spots we will have battles between WRs Wims, EHall, and possibly even Ridley; then among the DBs we have Tolliver, McManis (he won't go quietly), Denmark (he's already proven he can tackle in space), Franklin III, DHC, and Joseph. Interior kick coverage units will have battles too: Braunecker, Dax Raymond, Ryan Nall, Matt Betts, Fitts, and Irving, KR/PR: Patterson and Cohen (both roster locks), MHall, Kerrith Whyte It's always a big deal for players to earn a roster spot, but this year it's a chance to earn a roster spot on a team that has Superbowl potential.

Let's not trade away starting WRs. All we know for now is that we have young WRs with potential. Gabriel is a proven player with chemistry with Mitch and we need all the wins we can get.

I agree with the last half of that sentence but this year for Wims to breakout he has to take away snaps from Robinson, Gabriel, Miller, Cohen (who often lines up at WR), and now Patterson. While he may see the field it's hard to see a path where he gets a ton of snaps. Even when he is on the field I don't see that many passes coming his way. We have to keep in mind that we have two new RBs who can run routes and catch (in addition to Cohen). IMO for Wims to really standout his shot will have to come from someone getting injured. Long term I hope he can develop into the role Robinson plays for us and since his second contract isn't likely to be that big maybe he'll help save some cap space as well. If Hall can also develop I can certainly see our top 4 WRs in a couple years being Miller, Ridley, Wims, Hall.

There will be moves to make that might not have the fans support (i.e. Jordan Howard) but we have an entire draft class to help ease the pain and that's with two 2nd Rd picks. Those two picks also lower the rookie pool cap hit.

What's crazy is how few so-called analysts even look at this data. This is the toughest position to play in sports from a mental standpoint and yet nobody is willing to give players time to learn it. Further so few analysts know the history of how long it took many great QBs to become great. How many analysts know that once Hunt was cut by the Chiefs Mahomes' comp% dropped to 62.5% in the regular season and just 58.7% in the playoffs? That's 61.5% combined over 7 games whereas with Hunt he was at 67.8%, in case you are wondering what having a good pass catching RB meant to him.

Add Russell Wilson who in his second year threw for 3357 yds in 16 games with just a 63% comp rate. Or maybe his 3rd year which was also 3475 yds at 63%. Ben Roethlisberger didn't break 4000 yds passing until his 6th season. Before that his previous best was 3500yds. Andrew Luck first four years comp: 54%, 60%, 61.7%, 55.3% My favorite comparison Cam Newton 60%, 57.7%, 61.7%, 58.5%, 59.8%, 52.9% 59.1% and FINALLY 67.9% and FWIW Trubisky has a better rushing average than Cam 6.1 vs. 5.2ypc Matt Ryan first four years 3440yds 61.1%, 2916yds 58.3% (14 gm), 3705yds 62.5%, 4177yds but just 61.3% Fact is after just two seasons Trubisky is right in line, if not ahead of, many of the QBs who are considered the best in the game.

I have no idea if this is just speculation or if he did a bit of research into how players were looking during OTAs. Regardless, Willie McGinest lists Floyd as one of 4 breakout pass rushers this year. http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000001034348/article/leonard-floyd-among-young-pass-rushers-set-to-break-out-in-19

Worthless analysis. They say he is as inaccurate as Bortles yet just in 15sec of looking at their stats Trubisky completed in his second season and first year of new offense 66.6% of his passes while Bortles has never exceeded 60.3% in 5 seasons. Again it's a few negative plays that standout in people's minds because, especially in this case, I think that's what they want to see to back up their view of what Trubisky is. It's not even worth arguing about especially if they can't even look at some basic data. We all know the glass is half full with Trubisky it's just a question of if you think the arrow is going up or staying flat.

I'm just saying when you look through their individual game stats almost all QBs are inconsistent. Then there is Drew Brees. Trubisky just needs to hit on two or three more intermediate/deep passes per game and that goes away. It's those missed big play opportunities that stand out (at least to me) and often the players he targeted were open. With him in the second year of this offense and play calls and reading the defense reportedly coming more naturally for him I'm hopeful he'll be more focused on his throwing mechanics. When he has his body all lined up he can fit the ball into some very tight windows even with players on the move. If he wants to be a legit franchise QB those are the plays he has to make.

First Trubisky got injured on a late hit, not by running or because he was running. He was actually laying on the ground at the time. Running like that in the open field and sliding early is far less dangerous IMO than staying in the pocket. A player could just as easily take a cheap shot on him in the pocket. If he were trying to be a RB and take on tacklers as others like Cam and Jackson have done at times...that's bad for longevity. ...and so you agree with Jackson being ranked ahead of him? What about Watson who just said last week he's starting to understand his offense (in his 3rd year) and reading defenses better? Neither of us said Trubisky is a top 10 QB. You say he is inconsistent in passing yet he has 66% completions and six games were over 70%. His comp% is ahead of Brady, Wilson, Mahomes, Goff, Mayfield, Rodgers, Jackson, Darnold, Stafford, Rosen, and Josh Allen. For comparison with the new gold standard: With Pro Bowl WR/TE/RB, and in his second year in the offense, Mahomes had just one more game (7 total) over 70% completions. Of course there are some inconsistencies in Trubisky's passing, and inconsistencies in his reading of defenses but the data in many ways shows he's solidly in the middle of the pack if not ahead of many names rated well ahead of him (Goff for sure). Yet a QB who is middle of the pack relative to his peers who is also near the top of the pack in running ranks below them? That certainly didn't hold true for Cam Newton, Jackson, Wentz, Mahomes, and Watson when they were running around. For those QBs the ability to scramble and run made them more special and moved them up in the rankings despite poor completion %. In his nearly MVP year Wentz was only completing passes at 63% and finished 2017 with just 60% completed. Moreover in 2017 he never had a single game over a 70% completion rate. FWIW he improved in his 3rd season quite a bit. National media types don't watch Bears games, not like we do. We are hyper-critical, as most fans of teams are, of our own players.

I'd say in passing both are about equal. Foles has significant limitations under pressure and Trubisky shines more often than not in those moments. Mostly I see Foles ahead of Trubisky on reading defenses and being able to make the quick decisions. However, he wasn't always that way, especially not in his 2nd season. Then there are the adhoc plays and designed read-options that a defense must account for with Trubisky on the field. Do you think Foles will provide the running threat or yards that Trubisky does? Zero chance of that. Yet the media ignores his ability to run. In support of that ignoring his running consider Lamar Jackson and his 4.7ypc versus Trubisky's 6.7ypc. Yet Jackson is ranked 15th on USA Today's list. (This is their ranking of a team's QB situation not QBs per se). So Trubisky is better at passing than Jackson completing 66.6% of his passes vs. 58.2%. Plus he is more efficient running than Jackson too. Trubisky QB rating 95.4 vs. Jackson at 84.5. And if you say that Jackson is limited in his running yards because defenses are stacking the box well then shouldn't that make it easier for him to pass? Meanwhile these same knuckleheads put Goff at #7 despite their own precaution that even after 3 seasons in the NFL he can't read defenses on his own and still has to rely on his HC calling the play. Maybe they were watching a different Superbowl than the rest of us.

I didn't realize he started going after people in the media too. That usually doesn't end well for the player.

A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush still holds true today.

KC only led in sacks for one reason and that was because teams were so far behind they had to pass starting in the 2nd quarter. Even then their D was still horrible. At this point they've gone the Indy-route and are all-in on offense and the D will be held together with glue and staples.

At least our team isn't dealing with this crap from our franchise QB: https://brownswire.usatoday.com/2019/06/04/baker-mayfield-to-duke-johnson-youre-either-on-this-train-or-youre-not/ Then Mayfield's WRs had to have a personal chat with him about respecting other players. https://heavy.com/sports/2019/06/browns-baker-mayfield-duke-johnson/ The NFL is filled with ups and downs even for elite players. How a QB handles the downs early in his career says a lot about their character IMO. Trubisky has already weathered a ton of criticism in his first two seasons (as seen in this thread from outside sources) yet he's always handled himself with class, continues to work hard, and focuses on improving his performance first without criticizing his teammates. OTOH Mayfield is already showing plenty of signs that won't be his M.O. From the way he treated Hugh Jackson on the field in front of everyone, and now his teammate Johnson it's clear he won't or can't handle things with class. Brown's fans should be elated because of the future the roster has but if I were in their shoes I'd be nervous about what Mayfield could become if/when things go downhill.

We have him for 2 more seasons since we picked up his 5th year option. He hasn't produced at a high level but he's versatile and I still view him as nice chess piece to have on the field. That's especially true given the likelihood of Pagano's blitzing schemes. I think the most likely outcome is that we keep him for 2 more seasons and let him go in FA. If I were Floyd I wouldn't sign an extension now either. He just needs one season with 10+ sacks and he'll be a highly sought after FA. With our Dline he's got a as good a chance as he'll ever have to make that happen. Call it the Amos effect.

Find a long term deal with Floyd now. The quote below is from Trevathan who usually doesn't give that kind of detailed praise. The article has more good info on how Floyd is developing at the guidance of our new OLB coach Monachino. https://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/bears/ct-spt-bears-leonard-floyd-breakout-season-biggs-20190617-story.html “I don’t know many linemen you got, but you better put some more on there because he’s been putting his best foot forward,” Trevathan said. “He’s been working his tail off and he’s been learning this defense in and out. I’ve been seeing him be more explosive, putting on a little more weight, a lot stronger, a lot more fundamentally sound and he appreciates each day and he’s getting the most out of it.

This is a case of people wanting what they don't have. With HHCD the Packers didn't always have a disciplined player, nor one who liked contact, but he made some big plays. They are now willing to give up few big plays to get the sure thing. Meanwhile in Chicago we had the sure thing in Amos but there were no big turnovers/fumbles/etc. to go with it. But he also didn't give up the big play to the offense. Amos will take good angles but they always start 3-5 yards behind the receiver and he'll contain the play from getting behind him. For $9mil they have Amos. We get HHCD and Goldman, or Floyd, or Roquan. If you want to stay in FA deals we got HHCD and Patterson.

They have different traits as players but to even attempt to compare HHCD at $3.5m vs. Amos at $9mil is ridiculous. I liked Amos as a player, and I'm happy for him that he was awarded with that nice contract especially because he's a Packer. All I ask is that they put him at FS.

I'm not nearly that high on Davis. I think he'll always be, at best, a 3rd RB for us, maybe fill in as a spot starter. His versatility might make him standout in our eyes early on but remember that he's being compared to Cunningham and Mizzell. I kind of hope this is a 1 year deal and he's replaced by a rookie or a much cheaper vet next year. That would mean Montgomery has a stranglehold on the starters job and we save $3mil in cap space minus new salary.