AZ54

Love it and best wishes for Andrew.

I'm not that worried about keeping this team together. We still have reasonable amount of cap space to work with in FA and some options to get more. We won't be top tier FA targets but we may be able to grab that 2nd tier who aren't commanding what they think they are worth and prefer a 1yr deal with a winning team. When you get to the 3rd tier we can compete with the winning teams now, and that's especially true because our "window" just opened. Whereas Pittsburgh is likely to lose Big Ben this offseason. If you are a 4th WR looking for a place to call home for a year or two which would you choose? Plus we have the mad scientist in Nagy cooking up all sorts of wacky plays and then partying afterward in Club Dub. If you are a 3rd tier defensive player like a DB you absolutely know that Khalil Mack will give you opportunities for INTs and passes defensed like few other teams. Better stats can lead to a better next contract if on a 1yr deal, and you might pickup a nice ring in the process. We can easily re-sign Amos, or Callahan, or RRH, or Floyd, or Coward, or Bullard in the near term. I don't think we can sign them all in the next two years. I was an advocate for extending Amos this past offseason like we did with Goldman but I suspect he'll get at least 1-2 mil/yr more now. He's a good player who I'd like to keep but tell me how many big highlight plays he's had this season? Plus I think he's peaked so we will be paying for the same performance for years. Instead I now prefer to gamble on Floyd's upside because he's still not as good as I think he'll become in another year or two. I also think Callahan, even with his injury issues, is a better target to keep around. Anyway whatever or whoever Pace decides are the key players he can keep them around and the one or two on the outside we have to find a replacement for. I think we'll be able to do that via draft or FA. What I'm worried about more is the front office losing talent as other teams start seeing all these late round gems, and even UDFAs, Pace is finding (Jackson, Cohen, Nichols, RRH). That won't go un-noticed and others will want in on his system and success. Two years ago he was to be fired for his draft and was at least laughed at by many for his small school signings. Now? There may be one or two guys in his scouting units that are really key to this success and losing one or both could change our good fortune. Not to mention that Pace went out and got Nagy. While we know he "hired" Fox everyone in the league knows that was much more recommended for him as a young GM. I think Pace will correct any issues if we lose front office personnel but that might not come on his first replacement hire, or in their first year working in a new role. None of this chatter has hit the streets yet but wait as we see more GMs losing their jobs like is rumored to be happening in AZ. OTOH if he can somehow string together another strong draft in day 2/3 this year and find a few players who can contribute or grow into a starting role down the road then we are going to be in a really good position with depth.

Kyle Long practiced today. We'll see what tomorrow brings and if he's able to string together a couple days of work that's a very good sign. https://twitter.com/kfishbain/status/1076192177317994497

I hadn't thought about it but it's entirely possible there is some type of custom orthotic inside to help his foot injury.

Kyle Long with new cleats? Yes sir! https://twitter.com/danwiederer/status/1075520213003714565

Trubisky an alternate Pro Bowl QB? That's going to upset a few people. I'm a Trubisky fan but I don't see the consistent performance to warrant this although he certainly has put together a few Pro Bowl worthy games. He is 3rd or 4th best in the NFC in TD% but other than that he's middle of the pack but trending upward.

Well you don't get much sunlight and I get overdosed on it so we don't always read things the same way. Sure we were all thinking that. Probably Nagy too. But, I admire Nagy's conviction and he came right out in the press conference afterward and said we'll do it again. So now our opponents know they must prepare for it, or anything else. What remains on the table is Eddie Jackson on offense. We know that was practiced a few times but I"m not sure we'll see that until he's fully healthy.

If he puts up 12-14 sacks in his 5th year he'll command at least $15mil/yr and we won't likely keep him around. There is always the possibility we franchise tag him after the 5th year and then trade him.

Floyd IMO is still ascending. I think with his body type we'll see that for a couple more years as he gains strength. The decision on his 5th year option is due this offseason and with all the things he does well I don't see anyway we can let him go after next season. So we're likely paying him the 5th year option which I believe is worth around $13-15mil. I'd rather see if we can work out a 3 or 4yr extension and since he doesn't have elite sack numbers try to keep him for around $8-10mil/yr. He's a good player but not elite in any category and his injury history mucks up the negotiating waters. If he's here for 4 more years (3 yr extension) he's just 30 when we can get his next contract. That's still young enough to get a big payday. He'd also be opposite Mack and that's a very good thing for Floyd as their strengths play off each other well. It will mean the end of Aaron Lynch/Willie Young type players, FA veterans for which we seem to pay around $4-6mil collectively each season, and we'll be relying more on young players like Irving and Fitts. It might also mean saying goodbye to Amos but I prefer to keep the defensive front together vs.a SS in Amos. In a way I'm glad we'll get to see Bush play for a game or two. It will help make that decision.

If I were Trubisky and Fangio said that to my face I'd be telling him ... you mean don't press my luck like the D did when they went into "prevent" against Miami and the great Brock Osweiller beat us on a couple screen passes? Or do you mean I'm pressing my luck if I give you a 20pt lead in the 4th quarter like the first Packers game that won't be enough? If you are going to have a real team the first thing to do is stop blaming others and focus on how we get better together. Trubisky has his own coaches to help him improve and it isn't Fangio's turf. No matter what a person may think the reality is one game, or one play, it will be their turn under the mistake spotlight. I've only re-watched a few games this year but I guarantee you with Game Pass even a casual fan can find everyone's bad game or two. Even Khalil Mack (see Patriots). Fortunately, under Nagy we don't appear to have this BS going on with the team and the players seem to have each others back. The coaches too are keeping out of the headlines (see Kromer et al). It's not the Trestman era either where there is no accountability because Kevin White has been sitting on the bench for half the season. Things are discussed coach to player like Howard's need to run harder when he hits the hole. Cohen's need to run upfield and stop trying to always go outside. Anthony MIller's need to run his routes correctly...all the time. Eddie Jackson's need to take better angles on tackles. Roquan Smith's need to stop standing there as his coverage responsibility runs right past him. I suspect the players have Nagy's back when fake punts don't work.

Found this on the web.. https://twitter.com/SportsByRick/status/1074414309474754561

Where did Burton go for a few games? I think as this season has gone along teams are playing the Bears differently. The announcers commented on a Packers CB covering Burton. Early on it was Burton and Robinson, then Miller and Cohen started showing up. Allen Robinson has had the most consistent targets among our receiving corps. Shaheen picked up a couple passes in the last game, stuff Sims wasn't doing. Sims had 6 games with zero targets. Another thing to note is the last two games were some of the lower totals for pass attempts with 28 (GB) and 30 (LA). The lowest attempts all year were against Buffalo with 20 but our median is just a bit higher at 31 pass attempts.

Floyd is a great Robin to Mack's Batman. I hope we find a way to keep him around because even if he's not a sack artist he's so versatile that it really helps the D overall. We can, and will draft another sack artist although I think in time Fitts can develop in that role. I thought MT played great and stayed within the offense. When we needed big plays we converted. What he did keeping plays alive when they blitzed was outstanding and that soft pass to Shaheen on the sideline was huge. No matter what was going on Trubisky never got flustered.

I've been saying this team has many ways to win and can overcome someone's bad game. Last week it was Trubisky with the bad game. This week it was Nagy.

I never watched Sayers live but even in his highlights its' clear Sayers was a really rare athlete. Cohen is a great athlete but he's not in Sayers class iMO.

Damn that sounds good!

I didn't know off the top of my head but a quick G-search shows this: https://www.profootballrumors.com/2018/04/fifth-year-option-nfl "For top-10 picks, the amount of each player’s 2019 option has already been determined. The fifth-year salary for a top-10 pick is equal to the transition tender at the player’s position during his fourth season. So, because the transition tag for quarterbacks this year was $20.922MM, we already know that Mariota’s fifth-year option will be worth that amount." If Mariota is seeing $21mil we have to expect Mitch's 5th year will be around $23mil. The Kirk Cousins effect will hit QB salaries this offseason and I think teams will be a bit less exuberant when writing these checks.

Is this a 3-game rolling average where you average the last 3 game together for each data point, or did you just group each 3 games together with an average value? I think the rolling average will show a trend better.

The next two years will be where we see the biggest cap % taken up by Mack's deal. In that time frame we have players who make significant contributions like Floyd 1yr left, Bullard 1yr left, Robertson-Harris (FA but will be relatively cheap), Bilal Nichols 3yr, James Daniels 3 yr, Jordan Howard 1yr, Tarik Cohen 2yr, Anthony Miller 3yr , Eddie Jackson 2yr, Adam Shaheen 2yr, Roquan Smith 3yr. On top of that we are set at LT with Leno 3yr $9-10mil, NT Goldman 4yr $10-11mil, DE Hicks 3yr $10-12mil. The big piece to figure out will be Trubisky. Trevathan might have one more year here but I wouldn't be surprised to see him get a 1-2yr extension to sort of sync him up with when Roquan gets his new deal. In the near term, 2019/2020 we are ok because of all the young talent. In 2021, the first year of Trubisky's new deal, we will have be prepared to somewhat reload the roster. Pace has 3 drafts to get that done. Pace has opened a good playoff window in just Trubisky's second season.

After facing Aaron Donald and Suh, James Daniels might feel like the Packers D is in slow motion. I'm very impressed by how well he handled himself against the Rams and that has to boost his confidence going forward.

...and we won! Imagine what's going on with the Rams fans after their QB threw 4 INTs and had a fumble. As the announcers said during the game Goff is still a young QB and it showed. What's great about the talking heads on TV is that none of this applies to Trubisky. I also think we're ignoring history when people say we can't win a Superbowl with an average performing young QB, who has ups/downs during the regular season, but who is backup up by a great defense. Check out Roethlisberger's game logs from 2005 vs. Trubisky. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/R/RoetBe00/gamelog/2005/ https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/T/TrubMi00.htm The excitement from the victory over the Rams is simply the fact that for the first time we saw our young defense put together a dominating performance start to finish. We all knew the potential was there because we've seen it for 3 quarters in most games this season. Those of us who are old(er) know that kind of defense can take you a very long way in the playoffs, and even win a Superbowl. I'm glad we have Nagy running the show. He stays positive through the rough spots and stays behind his players. I see him all fired up on the sidelines during games and I'm sure the players see that too. They know the intensity that is expected of them. I think they've all come to learn that a bad game won't end the season for them.

Low man wins... https://twitter.com/keanukargar/status/1071980751372066816/video/1

Ah the energy Vic Fangio brings as he breaksdown Club Dub.. https://www.chicagobears.com/video/week-14-fantasy-bear-to-watch

We need to finish what we started and then just flat bury them. Our pass rush is better than it was in Week 1. Back then Floyd was injured and playing for the first time with a cast. Mack just got off the plane and hadn't played any football. Plus the interior rush is more consistent now that earlier in the season. Roquan Smith also has learned how to play well in our defense so he's out there instead of Kwiatoski. The DBs are just working so well together right now. One of the most impressive things I saw against the Rams was how much the D communicates with each before the snap. That's at all 3 levels from the Dline, LBs, and DBs. These guys are focused on their job and they've studied the opponent. One of two things will happen on offense. Either the Packers gear up to stop the run and Trubisky and the WRs run wild downfield. Or they sit back and try to cover in which case we will run over them. They can't stop both and Nagy will figure it out.