AZ54

In week 1 Sam Darnold was the next great franchise QB after he destroyed Detroit. I watched the game and thought... he's got a lot to learn and his arm is not as strong as I thought it was. By week 3 Baker Mayfield beats him to end Cleveland's losing streak. Mayfield then takes the crown from Darnold as the next great franchise QB. I watched about half of Mayfield's snaps and, like most, saw his inaccuracies but some good throws too. Trubisky threw a pass into a tight window that Howard turned upfield for a big gain and he's criticized. Mayfield threw one into a tight window of double coverage and he's praised for completing the pass in a tight window. I like both of these young QBs but I'll wait.

Their defense has talent and will be blitzing to stop the run and get after Trubisky. If he can read what they are doing and find the right receiver then we may have a lot of big plays. Otherwise it could another low scoring game from the offense. I'm not worried about our defense at all.

Thanks I'll do my part. Most football fans here think we'll have a 2:1 advantage in Bears fans over Cards fans at this game. Don't be surprised if afterward some players talk about how it sounded like a home game.

Against GB Fuller was clearly pushed off about 10 yards or so before the ball arrived. Turning your head sideways slows you down. If he doesn't put his head down and sprint as fast as he can there is no way he gets back into the picture. Instead of looking backward and slowing down he sprinted and almost got his arm between the ball and the receiver. Against Seattle: When Lockett pressed him, or slowed him down that is exactly the point where he should have looked back for the ball. A CB should know the WR is slowing down to either line up with the ball, or the better WRs will slow down to create space for them to speed and make the catch. I don't think either play is a comprehensive evaluation of his play for the year, and AG agrees. In fact, Fullers run support generally is better than most CBs. Every player, except for perhaps the elite few, have some weakness in their game. I doubt Fuller will change much at this point in his career but overall he's still a very good CB in the league. Is he worth the money we paid? Not IMO but then again this team and defense is much better for keeping him and Prince around. Consider him rewarded for keeping the band together because sometimes losing a piece that fits, even if it's not perfect, isn't easily replaced. That's the premium we paid. Plus, we had the money and a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush. Two years in a row Pace went after top FA CBs some of whom are on the list below. He didn't land one. Given the cap space we had keeping Fuller was still the right decision. Same with Prince. (Ask John Gruden how extra cap space improves your win total.) The other top options Pace went after both ended up with a larger contract than Fuller, although Fuller has a much higher avg/yr than Butler. Fuller only gets $18mil guaranteed over the first two years vs. Butler's $30mil and Johnson's $34mil. We pay more per year than Butler's deal but that was a price to pay for the added flexibility of the contract (meaning we can walk away with less invested). Look at the top CBs in salary. All of them have some weakness in their game: Josh Norman, Xavier Rhodes, AJ Bouye, Patrick Peterson (maybe not him as he's improve a lot over the last few years), Trumaine Johnson, Kyle Fuller, Desmond Trufant, Stephone Gilmore, Janoris Jenkins, Malcolm Butler.

https://ux.azcentral.com/story/sports/nfl/cardinals/2018/09/19/arizona-cardinals-sam-bradford-expects-play-faster-against-chicago-bears/1364309002/ Bradford said he’s willing to take more chances in the pocket and that, no, he isn’t fearful of re-injuring his unstable left knee. “Yeah, I think there have been instances where I can help those guys out and maybe step up and climb through some of the traffic,” he said. ---- That's right step up into the rush. I'll be right at midfield, row 24 watching how it goes.

This defense isn't close to its zenith. With Mack being so new we've been largely straight up in rushing scheme. They mixed it up a bit last week and I expect more this week, especially with a static QB. Add in Roquan Smith and stir.

I can't provide a link but there was some analyst/reporter who said that the first thing Nagy had to do was "beat the Fox out of Trubisky."

JJ Stankevitz did a good job breaking down our 4th quarter TD drive. I didn't even realize we never had a 3rd down on that drive. All the way down the field it was a first down every two plays until we scored. https://www.nbcsports.com/chicago/bears/bears-film-breakdown-matt-nagys-playcalling-shines-critical-second-half-scoring-drive-against

If he were playing at Nebraska in the 1980s.

I don't think it's the Debbie Downer stuff so much as people really want to know we have a franchise QB in Trubisky. It's been a very long time since we had one. Although after so many bad seasons it feels like there is a component of worry that we'll never be a competitive team again. The media doesn't help either but they are all front-runners. Sam Darnold throws one deep pass that is a few feet short and the Detroit CB let's it go through his hands for a TD. The next day the NY papers declare Darnold to be a franchise QB. Trubisky throws a similar pass and it's intercepted and he's now called "dumpster juice". In the Mahomes video his inaccurate throws and poor mechanics don't matter when the result is a TD because the coverage was so poor. The media ignores the mechanics and accuracy issues. It wasn't too long ago Pace was slammed for not drafting Dak Prescott. 12 months afterward many, but not all, Cowboy fans were ready to move on from Dak at the end of 2017. For 2018 Dak is below Trubisky in yards thrown and this is his 3rd year in their system. Trubisky hasn't been consistently good through all 4 quarters of a game, neither has he been consistently as bad as "dumpster juice." If you want to compare QBs in similar situations look at Cousins and Trubisky. Through the first 3 quarters against the Packers the Trubisky led offense outplayed Kirk Cousin's, and it wasn't close... 20pts to 7pts. Cousins had another week to prepare with his team too, and he has a few more years experience reading defenses. Can't say Trubisky was helped by a better defense either. I don't think it can be known if Trubisky is our franchise QB until his 3rd season, although I agree we should have some good signs of that by the end of this season. With this new offense, and knowing the time it took Wentz and others to shine in it, I didn't expect those good games to show up until the 2nd half of the season. The first two games starting out with TDs actually makes me more optimistic that we'll see a good game sooner rather than later as he and the rest of the offense get comfortable with more and more plays.

Poor mechanics and inaccurate passes like those seen in this video?

I'm not even sure what to say if you think the offense he ran last year, and his play, was as complex and compares to what we've seen so far this year. That none of that matters to a player's, or really an entire offense's, development and then group it all into "same mistakes". Last year under Fox the complaints were all about how Trubisky needs to throw the ball to learn. Now he throws from the pocket and he's supposed to have it all down. This past week I put up Carson Wentz' stats for his 13-16th starts in the same offense. In his 14th start Wentz threw 22 of 42, 170yds, 52% comp rate, 0 TD, 1 INT. In his 14th start Trubisky threw 25 of 34, 200yds, 73% comp rate, 2 TD, 2 INT. In his 14th start Russell Wilson was 14 of 23, 205yds, 60% comp rate, 1 TD, 0 INT not exactly foretelling of his future success. Nobody knew Wentz would figure it out in his second season. Nobody knew Russell Wison would either. We don't know if Trubisky will but it seems clear that quite a few games are needed in this offense for QBs to get comfortable with it. Beyond Mitch's issues, there are several other things on offense that need to improve like the run blocking. At least the snaps weren't an issue this past game. The fact Trubisky has led TD drives in each of his first two games tells me that when he's comfortable with the plays he does well. Those are scripted and he has days to prepare for them. As soon as we go off script he's uneasy with his reads. We'll see if that improves as he becomes more familiar with the playbook, how his receivers run those routes, and how that fits into the coverage. It's just way too early to write him off. Fortunately for Mitch, Nagy knows that and has plenty of experience bringing along new QBs in this offense including Patrick Mahomes.

Did you watch Watson in week 1? He didn't look particularly calm in the pocket. I have yet to see anything of his week 2 performance but given his head start in game experience nobody should be surprised that he's ahead of Trubisky at this point. Especially considering he has the benefit of being in the same offense in year two. https://www.stamfordadvocate.com/sports/article/Health-not-translating-into-victories-for-now-0-2-13233941.php Watson, who was making his eighth NFL start after missing the last part of his rookie season with a right knee injury, said he should have thrown the ball away instead of running around looking for a receiver. He found DeAndre Hopkins for a 31-yard completion to the Tennessee 21, but time expired before the Texans could run another play. "I tried to take a shot," Watson said. "We didn't have any timeouts, and they guarded the sideline very well, so my instincts took over and I tried to get the ball and time ran out." this week yet.

I watched the KC game, at least a good portion of it. For those of us who watched him a lot in college, Mahomes is still himself and it will show up sooner or later. For now he is surrounded by talented players who all know the system. The Steelers defense was often horrible in pass coverage with blown assignments or missed tackles and he took full advantage of it. When you watch some of the highlights you see Mahomes was often off-target but his receivers made a good adjustment. Kelce's TD catch was way behind him, there's not many TEs who can make that adjustment. I'll wait to see how Mahomes handles being under pressure an entire game and throwing into tight windows before acknowledging he has truly shed his big-boom big-bust approach. For now there is zero doubt he's a year ahead of Trubisky running this offense and it shows.

I took the time to watch the game again and I'll start my thoughts with the QB. I was a bit harsh on Trubisky in my other post where I said this was his worst game. He had the two picks and early on looked like he was trying to be too perfect or over-analyzing things. Announcers were critical of him for over throwing Jordan Howard in the flat in the first quarter but didn't acknowledge the hand of a defender that he had to throw over to top of. I don't regret at all the chance he took with Robinson when it was a foot short. In time he'll have a better feel for that throw. For the second game in a row he led the offense right down the field for a TD to open the game. What stood out most to me was his poise in the 2nd half after the two INTs. He actually settled down and we saw the line drive on target passes we're used to. He also made several good adjustments in the pocket throughout the game to buy time. When a blitz was not picked up in the 3rd quarter he took the sack with no turnover and let his defense do their thing. Overall in the 3rd quarter the offense's mistakes were from others, the biggest a penalty that took away at 17 yard gain on a strike to Miller. Again we saw another long 4th quarter drive, this time for a TD. It hasn't all come together but I now think there was quite a bit of growth in his game this week over last week. Oline: Kush played a little better this week. There were still some misses and things to work on because a few times they allowed some early pressure on Trubisky. Seattle seemed content to focus on stopping the run and forcing Trubisky to beat them and there were few opportunities for Howard to get through the line untouched. With that the run game struggled inside so Nagy countered them in the 2nd half with a lot of short passes to the flat, or jet sweeps with Gabriel which were effective. RBs: Howard is again a stud. The running wasn't there but his pass catching including that tight window catch on the sideline Kendricks almost got his hands on, yet he was able to turn upfield for a big gain. He finished with 33 yards receiving but just 35 yards rushing. Cohen looked excellent in the return game. His big day will show up sooner or later. WRs: Robinson..glad his left knee is ok after that brutal tackle where the defender was intent on injuring him. These guys know when they have someone locked up like that and he could have eased up after the tackle and still held him in place. There was nothing spectacular but he's clearly Trubisky's favorite target and that's ok while the rest of the offense settles in. There were some bad penalty calls. I saw the "block in the back" on Miller on replay and he really didn't touch the player. I couldn't find the false start on Gabriel either, or they called the wrong number. Miller's route his TD catch was perfect. DBs: I'm not sure what's driving all the negativity regarding the CBs. Prince had Brandon Marshall locked up almost the entire game with several passes defensed. In the 2nd half Wilson took a down-field shot at Lockett and Prince was in perfect position and the play had no chance. Then of course the Pick6. Fuller was in perfect position on Lockett's TD play, and on Dissly in the first half on a 20 yard pass play where he did turn around. Whether or not he looks back is irrelevant IMO because Lockett played it perfectly slowing down just enough to create space for that pass to drop in over the top. Callahan also had a good game. Wilson only completed 61% of his passes, against Trubisky's 73%. While the world is focused on Khalil Mack's play he even acknowledge that his strip sack was the result of outstanding coverage downfield that gave him time to get there. I sense that our DBs are getting in sync with that pass rush and so are closing in earlier on route and not as worried about staying with WRs/TEs 4-5sec as they used to. Dline: We have a good rotation of big men. Nichols played well, he wasn't moved around by their Oline and got in on a few plays himself. He still needs to shed blocks better in the run game but he should learn. RRH, even Bullard all made plays throughout the game. Hicks, Goldman it seems confidence is growing across the board and they are playing off each other well. OLBs: Mack is still not in game shape but he's a game wrecker. Floyd had a very good game IMO although he's still very limited in his pass rush with the club on his hand. Lynch is just a depth piece in the mold of McPhee. He's more of a run stuffer with little pass rush but he did well cleaning up on plays when they were forced his way, and he does seem to be getting into better game shape. ILBs: Welcome to the field Roquan Smith. His closing speed and tackling prociency made a difference on a lot of plays. Trevathan had a good game too and I think it's the flexibility we now have with Smith or Trev in coverage that allows Fangio to let one of them loose. With the Dline and OLB play in front of them the arrow is pointing up from here. https://www.chicagobears.com/video/every-play-from-roquan-smith-s-week-2 Coaching: Nagy has his first win. It's the first big hurdle for any new HC and unlike last week his team closed the game out well in the 4th quarter. His message about staying positive and building on the good things from week 1 worked.

Trubisky played poorly. This is the first time I think the pressure of being the QB got to him as he focused too much on getting the details right. Which means he's thinking too much, a bit late on where he should be on his reads, and just not throwing the ball as naturally as he's capable of. Mistakes by others on offense set them back in the 3rd quarter but that late drive was outstanding. We are seeing pieces of what this offense can be, it's going to take awhile for it all to come together.

Inactives today: No FB today, and Bilal Nichols might get his first NFL action. Michael Burton FB Inactive Rashaad Coward OT Inactive Kylie Fitts LB Inactive DeAndre Houston-Carson DB Inactive Isaiah Irving LB Inactive Nick Williams DT Inactive Javon Wims WR Inactive

If he throws when he saw it as part of his progressions then it's an INT. If he sees it first and throws it on time it's an easy TD.

Tomorrow!

He couldn't get his act together well enough to attend their training camp. At this point in his life Josh Gordon needs to focus fully on his mental health and take care of himself.

IF this time is different it has to show up in this game.

Before the league changed the rules to make it harder to play defense it was easier to win games with a very good D and an average QB. Because of the high failure rate teams didn't value QBs back then as much as they do today. In today's NFL you either have a good QB or you are looking for one. There isn't much middle ground anymore, certainly not as much as when Trent Dilfer won a Superbowl. That's one part of it. I think what's in fashion in the draft is another and teams have to understand what other teams are likely to do. Five years ago RB weren't being draft much in the first round so you could still find a good talent in the 2nd/3rd Rds. Now drafting RBs early is the latest trend and if you want a good one you better not wait that long. It's the same with QBs. It's like Free Agency because the price of an elite RB just went way up this year. Steelers could have had LeVeon Bell signed two years ago for far less guaranteed than what he'll end up with next year. QB salaries too are through the roof when a guy like JimmyG gets a max type deal for 5 games. Like it or not (most are in the not category) Trubisky was the QB Pace wanted among the top 3 that year an he wasn't going to take the risk of losing him. Mahomes cost KC two first Rd picks. Wentz cost the Eagles two 1st Rd picks.

Hmm, that does sound better than Kwiatkoski has earned less reps this upcoming game. Like most arguments the truth is somewhere in the middle.

Maybe but I've never been to an NFL game where I didn't see a QB miss wide open receivers. I don't attend many games but still it's always been that way. Even if I watch a bit of All 22 film I can find the same. Which Aaron Rodgers are we asking this about? The veteran in his 14th season in the same offense, or the guy who completed 53% of his passes in mop up duty at the end of a blowout loss against the Ravens in his second season? That Aaron Rodgers had 15 attempts with 8 completions, 0 TDs, 1 INT, and 3 sacks. In the Fox era that was an entire game's worth of attempts. There is 1 play with Rodgers in the video below. Tell me if this pocket presence looks remotely like the QB we see 13 years later. I don't know where Trubisky will end up among QBs in his career but a lot of what is being said about him this early in his career is over the top, especially for a QB in a brand new system in his second year. Most rookie QBs are drafted with a relatively new coaching regime in place so there is usually some stability in the offense for two or three seasons. Whether we like it or not it takes years for a QB to grow into the role. It wasn't that long ago Bears fans wanted to sign Josh McCown for a couple years to be the starter. The same Josh McCown who was coaching high school football when we called him. McCown improved toward the end of his career no doubt and he's still on an NFL roster today and widely recognized as one of the best backup QBs in the league. Drew Brees, IMO, is a reasonable comp for Trubisky at this point in his career. Not because of what he has become but because of what he was in his second season and nobody knew what he'd become. 2002 Chargers 16 games, under 61% comp, 3284yds, 17 TDs, 16 INTs. It wasn't until his 4th season where Brees opened eyes around the league with a 65% comp, 27 TDs, 7 INTs but only 3150 yds. Ben Roethlisberger TDs/season in his first four years: 17, 17, 18, 32. Perhaps Carson Wentz in the last 4 games of his rookie season in this offense is a more fair comparison. Yards: 314, 170, 152, 245 Comp%: 69, 52, 54, 63 TDs: 1, 0, 1, 2 INTs: 1, 1, 1, 0 Certainly at this point, the end of the 2016 season, all Eagles fans felt he'd be in the running for league MVP by the middle of the next season. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/W/WentCa00/gamelog/2016/ I know stats are for dummies and there is enough NFL history that you can find whatever stats you want to support your argument. My argument is that with just 13 starts in the NFL absolutely nobody knows what Trubisky will be in year 4. After just 1 road game in year 2 it's way too early to write him off. He's not Cade McNown or Rex Grossman because we already know he has the work ethic and desire to succeed. I think he ends up somewhere between an Andy Dalton type as his floor, and top 5 QB as his ceiling. Either way, at this point I think he deserves our patience and support as he learns his craft, especially in this new offense.

I think Trubisky finds some open space to throw this week and it show on the final score. However, Jordan Howard is the star of the game. The D, featuring a young Roquan Smith chasing Russell Wilson all over the field makes up for last week's shortcomings and the Bears win 24-20.