AZ54

We're just a couple weeks out so I figured I'd put together my mock draft. I used position rankings from http://nfldraftscout.com/position-rankings/ . 1/8 Tremaine Edmunds ILB He combines with Trevathan to give us outstanding defense in the middle of the field, and spends some time at OLB. 2/39 Billy Price OC Move Whitehair back to LG. Price is stout up front, let's keep the pocket clean in front of Trubisky so he can step up when needed, and run Howard up the middle. 4/105 Kemoko Turay OLB He's got all the athletic talent to be a stud pass rusher. Can he overcome his injury history? 4/115 Jamarco Jones OT Backup for a year and replaces Massie at RT next year. 5/145 Allen Lazard WR Insurance against Meredith/White. 6/181 Michael Joseph CB Talented, hard working kid from a small school and I really like how he plays the game. 7/224 Ryan Nall RB/FB/H-back At 6' 2" 232lbs, he has some versatility to his game and good hands, if he plays well I could see him replacing FB Burton on the roster, or just being stashed on the practice squad for a year.

Looks like the Bears are also interested in Nall.... https://www.windycitygridiron.com/2018/4/9/17215810/chicago-bears-meeting-ryan-nall-oregon-state-nfl-draft-prospect-udfa-h-back-fullback-running-back

I agree he's not perfect but offers a lot of versatility. I link to highlights films simply because it's easier to compare the best of each RB and it made the point that Howard had zero receiving highlights downfield. I prefer to watch full game film to see the bad plays as well as the good to really evaluate a player, and have done that on Penny. He was better than I expected and since we're moving to more of a spread system I think he'll fit in well even on the inside runs. I also think Jordan Howard will be very productive running in the new offense. That will make play action very effective which bodes well for a team that wants to start using RPOs but a LB won't worry about him if he doesn't stay in to pass protect. I'm of the view that we don't need to find a replacement for Howard and there are many other positions where we could upgrade that would help the team more overall. Yet, we don't know how Nagy feels about it and how the lack of a good receiving threat out of the backfield could, or could not, limit the offense. It became clear how important he felt having a good receiving TE was when we spent all that money on Trey Burton. Yes, I'd like to add Penny to the backfield, not so hot on moving on from Howard but I'd accept and understand it if it happens. As far as route running almost all college RBs will have to learn this because few do much of it. Not much different from the QBs so often coming from spread offenses. and we might as well toss in all the WRs and Oline coming from spread offenses too. Even Saquon Barkley ran a very simple route package at Penn St. That whole offense at Penn St. looked like something you see in high school. We just have to see if the ability is there and then assume our coaches can refine them.

Adding Ryan Nall to my list. Productive inside runner who can catch. He's not very elusive but has great strength, balance, and drive after contact. Expected to be a UDFA but he's a guy I wouldn't mind keeping around on the practice squad.

Howard is not a receiver who catches well while he's running. Most of his receptions are when he runs out and stops to look back at the QB. We can go to the 2017 highlights to see his big catches from last year. I can save you some time by telling you there isn't one. I'd love add Rashaad Penny to our RB group. His highlights, in addition to KRs for TDs, and PRs, adds catches down field like the ones at the 5:00 mark, 8:00 mark, 8:30, and again at 9:50. If there is a trade to be made with the Giants it might not be Rd 1. I could see the Giants giving us their 3rd Rd pick for Howard plus we swap picks in the 2nd Rd. For a 3rd Rd pick the Giants get a proven 1000 yard rusher, one who can finish in the red zone. That's talent they won't be assured of finding in Rd 3. For the Bears Pace can grab Penny in Rd 2, then in the 3rd have options of WR St. Brown, OC Ragnow, OT Tyrell Crosby could still be on the board, CB Anthony Averette.

What's the mistake? Pace could have definitely had him for 1yr at $2.9 mil. Everyone knows nobody was going to give up a 2nd Rd pick for Meredith so that option was on the table for Pace. Now for just $5mil guaranteed we get Meredith for 2 years. If he does not return to form after the knee injury then we lost an extra $2mil to find out. If he does, then at $5mil/yr he's a bargain for 2 years. If he does return to form after one year Pace can offer him a new longer term deal next year when he might be much cheaper than he could be after two years. I don't see any way Pace wasn't expecting this type of a contract for Meredith, or even hoping it would happen.

This Isaiah Oliver? He doesn't really like to tackle and his Charmin soft ways will be owned by bigger physical NFL receivers. I only watched two games and I"d say he's got some good athleticism to run with receivers and he'll have some pass defensed. He'll be on an NFL roster but I think he'll fit better on a defense that emphasizes zone coverages more than individual matchups. http://draftbreakdown.com/2017/11/25/isaiah-oliver-vs-usc-2017/ I prefer Carlton Davis who has no issues getting in someone's grill at the LOS and staying there throughout the route. He can tackle too. Watch 4 or 5 plays into this game and see him hit Sony Michel, another likely 2nd Rd pick, 1on1 square in the hole and take him down for little gain. http://draftbreakdown.com/2017/11/25/isaiah-oliver-vs-usc-2017/ Of course this is my personal preference for having defensive players on my roster who play with a physical edge. I'd even give up a bit of athleticism to have that attitude as long as they show they can play with discipline (i.e. someone like Richard Sherman). It is also scheme preference too because our CBs on the outside are often asked to match up 1on1 early on the route, and they are key to edge defense in the running game if containment is broken. Fuller and Amukamara are both under-rated for their run support but they do a good job when the play comes right at them.

Seems like a perfect contract for Pace. Wasn't the 2nd Rd tender worth about $5mil? Now he gets Meredith for two years at the same price.

I only see one angle where this deal could be considered and even at that I doubt Howard is enough value to balance out the trade. There are 800 pts between #2 and #8, equivalent to pick #21 in the 1st Rd. It is hard to figure out the Giants this offseason. Are they keeping Eli and trying to win with him now, or not? If not, then their choice is obvious and they stay at #2 and take a QB. That portends a full rebuild and staying with Eli another year just delays the rookie's progress, likely increases their win total in 2018 which reduces draft capital in 2019. However, if they are serious about trying to win with Eli this year or next then they have to be all-in and need as much young talent as they can squeeze in under their salary cap. That includes keeping a happy OBJ around, and he's only happy if he's been paid. Staying at #2 when the Jets offered a lot to move up indicates they want a QB. Babbling on and on about trading OBJ indicates this is a rebuild with a new QB. Are the recent OBJ talks just the Giants way to reduce his contract demands? Maybe, because the Rams sure moved on quickly when they gave up a 1st Rd pick to get Cooks a far less talented WR. If OTC.com is accurate then the Giants have just $5mil in cap space, not even enough to sign their rookies. At their current draft slot the Giants need about $9.7mil to sign their rookies. Assume their target is Barkley, then they can save a couple million by dropping back to the Bears spot and still get a very good starting caliber RB, plus add a possible blue chip talent at #8, and have more money for OBJ. https://overthecap.com/salary-cap-space I can't see Pace giving up more draft picks but I could see him giving up another good young player. That would have to be someone like Jonathan Bullard, assuming they believe as I do that RRH will be the better DE among the two. Overall rating on this rumor: A puff of smoke nothing more.

I could see that happening. As you said, Ballard still gets one blue chip prospect and gets to completely reload his roster with young talent.

It might be surprising but the obvious trade is to move up with the Colts and take Saquon Barkley and give them Jordan Howard. That's assuming Howard has value equivalent to a 3rd Rd pick and I believe he does, easily. If we go up a bit further to #5 we might have to toss in a 4th Rd pick. Both teams would stay in the top 8 where they can likely still get a blue chip talent.

I'm not so sure we'd move up for Nelson but Chubb I could see happening.

Quite a bit of guaranteed money here, more than expected. It's not enough that we can't walk away if we want to but it does appear he's got a shot at being on the final 53. $550k guaranteed, up to $2mil total. https://twitter.com/MikeGarafolo/status/981252070698377219

Without even looking at the point value I'd say the Bills trade is more realistic because it's more likely to happen. Arizona has at least put together something of a QB room, whether or not Bradford can make it through the full year is another question. Buffalo is working every which way to get into the top 5 but it might not happen because the teams that are up there still seem to want a blue chip talent, if not a QB, which means they can't trade back too far. If they really felt McCarron was a future starter they'd have been more aggressive signing him in FA instead of waiting to see who was left. One of the 4 QBs has to fall out of the top 5 which is quite likely. I feel AZ is more content to take Lamar Jackson, or maybe even Mason Rudolph via trade up early 2nd Rd, late 1st Rd, and let him learn for a year. Doesn't mean they wouldn't trade up for someone like Mayfield but I don't see them out-bidding the Bills for our pick at #8. FWIW Pace said his ideal draft scenario is that 4 QBs go ahead of where we pick. That tells me he's hoping to get one of the blue chip players himself and he might even be interested in a trade up to make that happen. If the trade down for lots of picks was his desire he'd want 3 QBs to go ahead of our pick.

We are paying Hiestand for a reason, and I have to think he's in on the evaluations of any FA Oline we sign. Whatever his issues are I would think Harry has some level of confidence he can fix them.

I like it. I thought as the 3rd RB he played well in all phases.

I think Tremaine Edmunds fits as a Bears LB. He'll be playing ILB and I think in time he can mix in some at OLB. Needs, (after the draft we need players in these positions who can challenge for playing time if not be a starter in week 1): OLB, OG/OC Depth/future starter needs run across the board as expected for a young team: OT, CB, ILB, WR, S, DE Draft the right players early at one of these spots and that group should become a position of strength on the roster. While I'm less high on him than others, if we put Minkah Fitzpatrick in with our DBs I think our secondary will be very good. Go back to the needs list at OG and put QNelson inside with Long and Whitehair and, despite some issues on the edge with the OTs, Trubisky should always have a place to step up. Not to mention the running game should be very productive. I feel the combination of Edmunds/Trevathan/Floyd can become so versatile that it will cause QBs issues figuring out who is doing what in coverage. That's still true even if Edmunds stays at ILB because he's very good in coverage. ILBs can defend the run sideline to sideline.

With the owners meetings completed and just a few weeks before the draft any remaining free agents are getting nervous to find roster spots. This is where Pace often does a lot of work to fill out the roster. I think he's done with big contracts except for any extensions he wants to do with our current players (reportedly Goldman, maybe Amos). We have almost $28mil in cap space and have yet to cut Freeman which opens up another $3.5mil. That leaves room to sign a "name" player on a decent low risk deal. About the only "name" player I'm interested in is Jonathan Hankins because I think if his asking price drops low enough he can add some starter level depth while leaving room to allow either Bullard or RRH step up and take the starting job, should they play well enough to do so. I wouldn't mind seeing a vet S, CB, OG added either. Or do you think Pace is ok with who we have until after the draft? https://overthecap.com/free-agency

I wouldn't mind that at all. I think there's a lot of good WR talent that will be on the board in the middle of the draft.

If you can trade back to #15 and still get Edmunds you've already won the draft. There's a few spots I'd like to see with different players: 1/15: Edmunds ILB 2/7: Lorenzo Carter OLB We desperately need more talent and now the D front seven is complete even if it takes 2 season to fully realize this potential 2/15: Kolton Miller OT needs a year to get technique down then bye bye Massie, and he could eventually take over at LT 3/15: Braden Smith OG 4/5: Ade Aruna OLB Seems like a better OLB prospect because he's much faster. Chad Thomas just looks like he'll never be more than a depth player so I'll take a chance on the upside. Yes, I'd double dip at this position. 4/15: Kevin Toliver CB 5/8: Nick DeLuca ILB Great find here. I hadn't see any film on him yet but after watching a few minutes he's got some Kwiatkoski style play when he fills gaps but he seems to be more mobile in pass coverage. I'm not even sure he'll still be there in the 5th Rd. 6/7: PJ Hall I don't see him having any length, strength, quickness that help him compete in the NFL level. Maybe bring him in as a UDFA? 7/7: Jarvion Franklin RB. At 6'1" 230lb with the vesatility to contribue in the passing game

While I agree 100% that Nelson would be an instant and significant upgrade over the current starting LG, I think Edmunds is an instant upgrade over Kwit at ILB. He will not have as much impact on the D's performance as Nelson should have on the O. For sure the high expectations, if they are met, wouldn't be realized for 2 to 3 years. It is an interesting choice because choosing either player could make that side of the ball dominant.

Urlacher played safety in college and knew very little about playing LB. In fact, he didn't play well at WLB but inside he thrived. I don't want to put Edmunds in the HoF category, but I see lots of talk about him as just a great athlete who hasn't been productive because he doesn't know how to play. He's actually been very productive: 2017 108 tackles, 14 for loss, 5.5 sacks. 2016 94 tackles, 16.5 for loss, 4.5 sacks. That's a 12, maybe 13 game season so extrapolate that to 16 games and he'd be our best tackler and tied with Floyd and Hicks for sacks. Actually you don't have to extrapolate, he's already got more tackles than our leader, Trevathan. I won't expect that from him in year one in the NFL, but there's no doubt he'll be productive as a rookie even if he's still learning how to play. On day one in training camp he'd be better in coverage than anything we've ever seen from Kwiatkoski. In 11 games Kwit had 49 total tackles, 2 sacks (don't know the TFL) . The fact Edmunds can be so productive yet still have so much to learn is impressive IMO. Add in that he could excel as an edge rusher as well and you have enough upside or position flexibility to make him well worth the investment. Even if he falls back to just being a very good ILB he'd be taking over for Trevathan in a couple years. We've seen comments that our ILB isn't that important to the success of the D. Scheme wise this might not be the key position, but there was a huge difference in our D when Trevathan was out last year. When he returned the overall D improved quite a bit. Trevathan is also a good leader on the field and in the locker room. I'm not sure we could put Edmunds with a better pro to help him get up to speed.

I'm not a big fan of Ward in the first, and I do mean the first round not just the 8th pick. I don't even think he can cover the Bears best WR in practice. I know he has elite athletic traits but he doesn't have the size and strength needed to cover big WRs on the outside and it shows on his tape. In our D who is he going to successfully jam at the LOS? At 180lbs, how will he hold up physically tackling big RBs like Jordan Howard on the edge? If he were on the Packers would you want him covering Robinson in the red zone? He can run all day with Taylor Gabriel but that's not what I want from the 8th pick in the draft. I think he ends up being a very good NB, or a good #2 CB. While Ward might be a bit better athletically we already have a similar talent in Callahan. Rd 2 for Crosby seems a bit high but ok. Rd 4 Turay...love this pick. Excellent edge athlete with little production due to his injury history but when healthy he makes a difference on the field. In the Senior Bowl practices he was almost unblockable in 1on1 pass rush drills. In the 4th the risk/reward is in balance IMO. Rd 4 Orlando Brown. I don't want anything to do with this guy. Ok maybe later because a 5-7th Rd pick is just hope that something good will happen. In the 4th we can still find productive players with upside. Keep in mind, part of my opinion is based on the fact that Nagy wants fast athletic Olinemen and the slowest combine runner in history doesn't fit that mold. We already have one big slow guy on the right side, not sure why we'd need another one who is bigger and slower. Why not Alex Cappa, Brandon Parker, or Jamarco Jones here? In this spot, if he's there I'd take Shaquem Griffin. 145 Allen Lazard...hell yeah.

I think we still need an OC who can block somebody. I like James Daniels but Billy Price injured his pectoral muscle at the combine. That will make him drop a bit and be there for our 2nd Rd pick. He'd look good inside with Whitehair and Long. http://draftbreakdown.com/2017/12/03/billy-price-vs-michigan-2017/

With the NFL meetings come access to coaches and GMs. Rich Campbell put together some things to know about our new offense. http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/football/bears/ct-spt-bears-matt-nagy-bears-offense-20180327-story.html Some of the standout items: We'll be running 13 personnel quite often with 3 TEs on the field. This should answer the question as to why we kept Sims. Of course we'd all like to pay him less for what will be a more limited role. As is typical in KC, we'll be seeing lots of screens. Cadence... we may fail on offense but it will be done quickly. Some of those plays will be deep and maybe even on 4th down as it appears we'll be going for it more often. It's all very anti-Fox. Oline need to be athletic and he liked what he saw on film of last year's players. Of course that led to Sitton leaving too. We should probably take Orlando Brown off our draft board.