AZ54

He's been around the NFL draft for 57 years and has one heck of a draft database. "I can now look at my database and pull the confirmed short-shuttle or three-cone time of the 947th-ranked prospect instantaneously ... and in a matter of seconds have on my computer screen in front of me all the third-down-and-short run plays he was involved in at his Div. III school." http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap300000080...-2017-nfl-draft I saw a few rankings that stand out from some of the mainstream: #8 overall Trubisky If he's ranked that high on the Bears board we should just draft him. ------------------------------ One thing often overlooked about Trubisky is how well he played in 2015: "in 2015, he played well, completing 40 of 47 passes for 555 yards, six touchdowns and no interceptions." I know there's a lot of talk about why, when he was a sophomore, he didn't beat out the senior on that roster but that's a pretty impressive performance in a part time role. More here: http://www.goheels.com/ViewArticle.dbml?ATCLID=206278361 Came off the bench after Marquise Williams lost his helmet and completed passes against NC State and Clemson • The pass against the Wolfpack was a first-quarter touchdown, while the completion against the Tigers picked up a first down on third and long • Completed 5 of 5 pass attempts for 84 yards and scored his third rushing touchdown of the year in the win over Miami • Completed all five pass attempts for 43 yards and tallied his third rushing touchdown of the year in the win over Duke ----------------------------- Back to Gil Brandt's rankings: Watson is right behind Trubisky at #9 overall, Mahomes at #18. Ross is his top WR at #10 overall but I doubt that will hold up on draft day. He's got Williams way back at #23 and Davis near the end of the 1st Rd #31. Marlon Humphrey is #43. I like all the 2nd Rd Safeties but maybe not in his order: Marcus Williams, Josh Jones, Maye, Evans, and Baker. None are named Obi who sits back at #68 and the 3rd Rd seems appropriate for his production. I certainly hope Obi goes much earlier as it might leave a safety there for us in the 3rd Rd if we haven't already taken one. OT Antonio Garcia is way down the list at #130. There's talk that he'll go in the 2nd Rd.

I don't know enough to get deep into the draft as far as a nightmare draft but there are players I don't want in the rounds where they are likely to be taken. 1st Rd #3: TE Howard Far too many good options later in the draft. 1st Rd trade back: Jabril Peppers I know he's a great athlete, I still don't want to watch another safety who can't cover pass routes 2nd Rd: Obi Melifonwu S All the elite measureables without the elite production. The film doesn't lie and there is zero reason to take on a DB project at this point in the draft. Give me the Budda Baker type of football players. Tim Williams OLB: He's good when nobody blocks him beyond that there isn't much fight in his game. Might be one of the biggest fallers in this draft process as early on he was talked about as a top 20 player, now down to mid-2nd Rd Carl Lawson OLB: Sort of the opposite of Williams physically but he won't be very productive against NFL OTs. Not worth our 2nd Rd pick, or 3rd Rd pick.

This is my hope as well. Can Pace make Cleveland nervous enough to think their QB will be gone? We haven't done as much work on Trubisky as we have with Watson and Kizer, but we've done a ton of work on QBs. This is an excellent article detailing many of the concerns with the draft QBs. http://mmqb.si.com/mmqb/2017/04/12/2017-dr...-best-nfl-teams

I love all the good things you mention about Watson but we can't ignore the limitations he has throwing the football. In the right scheme he'll be ok. Pushing the ball down the field ain't his thing. There's subtle things that I've read where he isn't very accurate throwing to his left. NFL teams and players figure these things out and make you go where you don't want to go. I see him ending up better than a journeyman like Hoyer but never quite the guy you really want at QB, like Alex Smith. How early do you draft that type of QB? The two QBs the most likely (not guaranteed) to reach their potential IMO are Trubisky and Kizer, with Kizer less so. Mahomes is Jay Cutler with a smile. Webb is too inaccurate for me and Kaaya too nervous in the pocket. I think both end up career #2s who, on a good team, can win half the games when the starter is injured.

It seems rumors are now building that we're likely taking a DB at #3. That's an exceedingly easy rumor to throw out there given the talented options in Adams, Hooker, and Lattimore match very well with the Bears needs. Many draftniks in the media have had us taking Lattimore for the last couple weeks. I'd say Adams is 2nd most frequent selection but that's still close to number of folks who still have us drafting Jonathan Allen. http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2703486...-draft-and-more Based on what I recall here's the history of the most popular players for our pick in order of most popular... January: Jabril Peppers/Allen February: Allen, Trubisky, Solomon Thomas starts showing up Mar: Jonathan Allen, Thomas, and Adams creeps into the picture Early Apr: Adams/Thomas/Allen Mid Apr: Lattimore/Adams/Allen/with a little Trubisky thrown in for good measure and by now Thomas is likely gone at #2 overall. The one constant that's in every recent draft is the QBs moving up late in the process. After seeing them all dissed as no better than 2nd Rd prospects we now hear that as many as 4 (Trubisky, Watson, Mahomes, Kizer/Webb) and possibly all 5 could be taken in the 1st Rd. Not one of them, except perhaps Trubisky, has a legit 1st Rd grade. Watson has legit 1st Rd intangibles pushing up his lack of physical arm talent.

I think Fisher was already done with the Rams the year before they left STL. They were working through the move to LA and the owner just wanted him around to help that transition. No new HC would want to walk into that fire storm the year before they were approved for the LA move. For his troubles Fisher was given a contract extension before the season and then allowed to ride off into the sunset with a couple extra years pay. Every time you saw Fisher on TV he looked like a man going through the motions of being a HC even early in the season.

Trubisky is also pretty good throwing while on the run both to his left and to his right 10-20yds downfield, sometimes further. That is the main reason I prefer him over the other top candidates since the other attributes are pretty close among them. I think he'll be the best among this group in the future when plays break down, plus his own scrambling ability is very good. Mahomes can throw on the move as well but his decisions when on the run scare me and in the NFL the players chasing him will be faster which will force him to speed up his decisions. Mahomes is not as athletic either so that combined with his bad habits forcing the ball when on the run usually ends badly.

I agree with that. Pace may feel he is best off throwing two darts at the bullseye. He might think equally well of Glennon and Trubisky and that each can become good NFL starters, but his confidence level might be 80% on either. If he is right on both accounts then he simply keeps the better of the two and the other can be traded to get some return. Consider this from Bradjock: "The problem is, while there is an over-abundance of round one talent, there is a void of top tier talent. Which means it sucks to have the #3 pick." --------------------------- That's seems to be a valid point for this draft. Then there are others who point out that the value in taking a safety so high just isn't there. Like it or not there are questions about Allen as an elite NFL talent that go beyond just his shoulders. Same can be said for Thomas, lattimore, or Hooker. If we were to plot draft grades we'd have a relatively flat line from the #3 pick on down maybe as far as into the early part of the 2nd Rd. If your draft grades are not that far apart from the 3rd position on your draft board down to the 2nd half of the first round then it seems filling your biggest need is the proper choice. If Trubisky is the 20th prospect on the Bears board and his grade is just slightly below Adams, and Pace thinks over the next year or two he'll develop into a legit NFL starter, then the value of the QB position says you take him at #3. ---------------------------- On the heels of the Bears/Trubisky rumors come the Browns stating they might take him #1 overall. Who is playing who? Do the Browns want Chicago to trade up to #1? Or does Chicago want Cleveland to trade up from #12 to #3 to take their QB? If Pace takes both of Cleveland's 2nd Rd picks and #12 overall I'd be very happy. What would you do with #12 overall, three 2nd Rd picks, and the early 3rd Rd pick? Ramczyk OT, Awuzie CB, Baker S/NB, Shaheen TE, Cupp/Zay Jones WR, and followup with QB Peterman in the 4th Rd.

Garrett at #3 would be a dream come true.

In any case the Bears QB draft rumors are starting to heat up... http://www.walterfootball.com/nflrumors/teamdraft

NFL Network Charlie Casserly says he's hearing quite a bit about the Bears liking Trubisky. This is the start of the disinformation period before the draft but it's also about the time last year when we first started hearing the Bears liked Leonard Floyd. I thought all that was smoke.

That gives me plans for one weekend in August.

I don't view Floyd as able to help us on the field at all.

He was pretty bad here in AZ and didn't do enough in NE to make it worth their time on another contract. We don't need his bad character in our young locker room.

If this is a sign of things to come it could be that Malik Hooker is our pick. That is one pick that helps out all CBs.

I can't help you on that one but if it makes you feel better Ditka did go 5th overall.

That's not really the question. Would you take him with our 2nd Rd pick? I just don't see the value there at all.

As they say on the TV commercials: But wait there's more... http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2702148...ound-mock-draft If you are inclined to scrolling, at that link Matt Miller also includes his "fix" for the Bears. Like many here, he starts with 2 defensive players: Adams/Kevin King. I'm good with that. With the FA CBs we signed it would give King a year to add some strength. Interestingly his "fix" for the Bears is totally different from his mock draft, which has us taking Lattimore and then some OT I literally have never heard of in Dion Dawkins. I hope the Bears steer clear of this Jerry Angelo approach to the draft. It seems very like Angelo to take on the injury risk with Lattimore at #3 (because CB is more of a value position) and then a reach again at #36 to fill another need. I never heard of Dawkins because he's more often listed as an OG and I'm not doing any work on guards this draft. Nonetheless, taking a guy predicted to be an OG, even if he has some potential at RT, with the 36th pick in the draft seems like one heck of a reach and a complete waste if Dawkins has to fall back to being only a Guard. Maybe Miller isn't aware that we have Long, Whitehair, and Sitton. Then consider the defensive talent we'd be walking away from, or even QB talent, and it just gets worse.

Entirely plausible we go with Hooker/Awuzie but I still think we take Adams over Hooker. I'd be very happy with Awuzie in the 2nd Rd. He is more athletic than I thought he was a couple months ago and we already knew he was a very good football player in all aspects of the game, including special teams. If we were to draft Adams/Awuzie we would instantly improve the secondary into a very athletic and physical group. LeBlanc is small in stature but he too likes contact. Amos does too for that matter. In front of them you have Freeman, Kwit, and Trevathan (once healthy) and all 3 like to come downhill. In front of them we have guys like McPhee, Hicks, and Goldman. I think we'd see the start of a soon-to-be intimidating physical defense.

A lot of praise for Adams, and Brooks is usually reserved in his critiques. http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap300000079...-2017-nfl-draft

That would be a fun sideshow during their games.

With the knee injury and likely to miss his entire rookie season? With this much TE talent in the draft I think teams will go elsewhere in Rd 3 knowing they can get help on the field this season and we'll see Butt on the board starting Day 3.

Bye bye Kyle Fuller. This guy doesn't replace him but the others (Cooper, Amukamara, Le Blanc, Callahan, Porter, and maybe even Banks) did and signing another CB when we're also likely to draft one just means they have less confidence he'll be around so they are stacking the deck hoping to fill out the bottom end of the roster. I think Fuller is offered for a late round draft pick. I'm not sure a team will bite on that since if he's cut he'll be cheaper. However, it seems he's more of a zone/cover 2 scheme fit and somebody with cap space might want him enough to take on the cap hit. If Pace doesn't get offers now just hold onto him into training camp and see what we get then. At some point Fuller has to show his talent again if he wants to work in the NFL. We can be patient.

I still think Fuller is gone before the start of the season. Back to the original topic: Sherman (and Seattle's defense) are so good in large part because of the safety play. Earl Thomas is the eraser. We saw this with Browner when he left and many felt he was some great CB but he flopped as an elite FA. Sherman is clearly much better than Browner but he plays with the same "handsy" style early on a route and needs the over the top help at times. He'd be our best CB but he was never a fast player so how long can he hold onto that quickness the helps him jam and then turn and run? I don't think he'd be happy here anyway amongst a rebuilding team...... and if Momma ain't happy....... well you know how that goes. I don't see Pace and Fox wanting to add him to the locker room mix.

I'm glad to see Adams ran better at his pro day. His 4.55 had me concerned because on tape I felt he was faster than that. He's at his best inside the box but offers quite a bit of value in coverage, even at FS. I'm still good if we pick him at #3 and I think he makes the entire group of DBs better. My biggest nitpick with him is that there are times when the plays go away from him where I don't think he's hustling enough to get in on the stop. If the ball is coming to his side of the field he's on his way in a hurry and can close out from 10 yards away in a flash.