AZ54

It's early and tough to put this one together at this time. Kudos to Jason for all the work to read what we've been posting over the last few weeks and organizing it. It will be interesting to see how early predictions compare to a final draft version right before the draft. I like what Pace has done his first two years. It's not all perfect but I see the arrow and trend pointing up. With that, we're still 2 more off-seasons away from being a solid playoff competitor. There are two paths to take to NFL excellence: Defense or Offense. Offense naturally has to have the franchise QB, the hardest position in all of sports to fill. Defense on the other hand requires a few great players, easier to find versus a QB, across the 3 levels of the D. The talent in this draft is laid out perfectly to enable the Bears to build a great defense. We can fill DE with Allen and still get a solid CB/S in Rd 2. LIkewise we could draft future Pro Bowl Safeties in either Adams or Hooker and immediately convert our DBs to at least an average ranking, if not better. We could still find a solid DE in Rd 2. QB becomes job 1 in 2018. For now I'll stand by my first preference to fix the QB position and draft Trubisky at #3 if he's there. I still feel there is something good to the way he plays the game and he hasn't come close to his potential. I watched the bowl game against Stanford and how he handled all the pressure in the pocket from Thomas was outstanding. There were a couple throws on the picks that weren't ideal but I think those are things he can learn on late reads as he gains more experience. I accept that he will not make the Bears a better team in 2017. If Trubisky is not there then take the 2 year approach and build a great defense. I start with Adams, more of a sure thing than Hooker, and his versatility and leadership across the secondary is a windfall for the needs of this rebuilding team. I'm not sold on Allen as others are so I think we can get a good prospect at DT/DE in Rd 2 in someone like Wormley or Watkins. Let Hicks and Goldman be the DT stars. Jason... you want first preference so it's QB Trubisky at #3.

Find us a TE with the first 4th RD pick and this is a winner.

For me at the top is accuracy at all levels of the field. If you can't consistently threaten a defense deep downfield you'll never be top starter in the NFL. Next is ability to read a defense. As Ashkum stated, the QBs coming out of the 1-read offenses don't learn anything about scanning the field. Worse is that all these coaches now make them turn around and look back at the sideline for the play adjustments which again, takes eyes off what the defense is doing. Those guys have a lot steeper learning curve when they get to the NFL. Even though he was in a 1 read offense I liked Mariota because when he was on the move he still kept his eyes downfield, and often made accurate passes on the move. He was reading the defense as the play broke down (better than Cutler does) so I felt he'd be able to pick up that aspect pre-snap over time. Lucky guess on my part. The scouts and coaches get to meet these guys and work them out so they should have a big leg up on this analysis yet they get it wrong in the first round year after year. I'd say that's in part because they place more emphasis on the physical attributes assuming the coaches can get the mental aspect corrected. Right now IMO this is the biggest knock on Kizer, among several but he also has some redeeming traits in how he handles pressure in his face. Trubisky on the other hand seems to be able to handle reading the defense as plays break down. Both are young and inexperienced so good luck figuring out where they are on their learning curve. Then I try to remember all the failed QB projects we've had in Chicago. What killed Grossman was wilting under pressure, couldn't read the defense well enough didn't know where to go with the ball when the blitz came. We came to realize later he didn't have the study habits and work ethic needed to succeed. Cutler fails under pressure too but in a slightly different way as he thinks he can still make that big play, and when he screws up he thinks he needs to come back and make a bigger play to make up for it. Any signs of those killer traits?

The more I learn about Adams and Hooker the more comfortable I am with either as our 1st pick. I still have to watch some games of Hooker but what I've seen so far he's the first prospect I recall who compares to Ed Reed. Last year everyone hyped up Jalen Ramsey, an elite athlete who went 5th overall last year, but Hooker seems faster at least in game speed. This is a guy who you can comfortably leave in single high safety spot and know you have both sidelines covered deep. I expect with that much athleticism Hooker would have no trouble in man coverage. He's not as physical in tackling as you'd like to see but the ball skills he has are exactly what we need the most in our deep coverage. Hooker is young and doesn't have a lot of experience at his position yet so the best is yet to come from him but that also means you're projecting his ability more than Adams. Adams on the other hand is the jack of all trades and lines up everywhere. He'll cover any TE in the NFL well. He is smart and instinctive, comfortable working in the box around traffic, and he'll smack guys hard around the LOS. He has enough speed to also handle single high safety role but I think he's a tick slower on top end speed than Hooker. The combine will be interesting. Adams also has the leadership you want to get everyone lined up correctly. I understand the concern about drafting a S so high but this is a passing league now more than ever. Eric Berry went 5th overall, same for Ramsey. Then when you start looking at CBs, there are almost always 1 or 2 in the top 10 picks. Patrick Peterson 5th overall. Those are players that just cover one side, whereas elite safeties who can line up and cover players from multiple spots, depending on what the offense wants to do, seem like a better value.

Pretty impressive http://www.chicagobears.com/news/article-1...2f-03827eaf1319

I'm not sure Mahomes goes in the 1st. From a physical talent view he has what you want. However, he plays the game like Favre (and Cutler) and pulling that out his habits is going to take time, if it's even possible. Holmgren managed to get Favre to reign it in just enough to be successful but there's a reason he threw 6 INTs in one playoff game. 5 INTs in another. 3 INTs in another...

It's just one analysts opinion but it matches my opinion so I like it. (that's a little tongue-in-cheek humor so relax) http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap300000077...-2017-nfl-draft Hooker: "He has the best ball skills of any safety I've ever evaluated in college" This is the first time I've seen two safeties in the top 10 let alone the top 5 on anyone's draft board. It's still very early in this process so we'll see how things play out over the next 3 months but from what I've seen Allen is not going to be a dominating player in the NFL. He's blocked far too often by a single OG/OT for my tastes, and I think he benefits from the talent that surrounds him. He'll be good and he'd be an upgrade and improve our Dline but we have huge needs in our secondary. To see Hooker ranked this high is surprising, and he's moving up rapidly on other boards. If we're not drafting a QB, then next biggest need meets draft grade you go with it and forget about the "rule" that S is not a top 10 pick. Adams is up there too in top 5/6 players and I like him a lot, actually like him more than Hooker at this point. This is a passing league and we need players to defend that down the field. Either one of these players really improves the backend of our defense and we should be giving them serious consideration at #3. http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/prospectrankings

Miami's line performed well, at least their running game did. Interesting to see us take one away from Gase.

First off, I'm bored so I read a couple threads on a Patriots board. How's that for tolerance? Anyway, it's not clear the Patriots have Garoppolo on the trading block. Shefter simply said that he thinks if they were to trade him the offer would have to be what the Vikings gave up for Bradford (1st/4th). Now if they are seriously interested in trading Garoppolo we have to ask ourselves... For me whenever someone in a QB starved league doesn't want their future starting QB it's a huge question mark, especially coming from a team that is right at the end of their franchise QB's run. There are no reasons the Patriots cannot give Garoppolo a contract extension into the 2018/19 seasons. If Garoppolo loved the organization so much and felt that his best shot at future success was there then absolutely stay and continue to learn from Brady until it was his turn. They have $68mil in cap space, 3rd most in the NFL! They have some key players to sign but this is far from a team in dire straits. Trading Garoppolo means Belichick is saying is that he can find Brady's replacement in either late 1st Rd/early 2nd Rd, one that is better than what he has on his roster today in Garoppolo and Brissett. Or his answer is Brissett, a QB who didn't even know any of the offense when he had to take the field early this year. At which point we have to say, if Belihick sees a future starting QB out there then why don't we? And if Brissett is really better than JG why then do we want JG? Despite their question marks, the top 3 QBs in this draft are all better prospects than Garoppolo. Keep in mind that in the last draft Belichick was so confident in JG that he felt he had to use the 91st pick in the draft on Brissett. That means he used a pick to put someone on the bench (3rd QB), a pick that could have easily brought them any number of players that contributed to their teams this year at positions the Patriots needed help in: TE Higbee, RB in Howard, QB Prescott. Why not grab one of those players to help win a Superbowl, and then, in the 2017 draft grab the QB? Or he could wait until the 2018 draft when JG leaves in FA, which by the way he could tag him and trade him at that time. Salary cap limits don't apply in the first part of the offseason. The 49ers traded Montana. Packers cut Favre knowing they had Rodgers. Colts cut Manning knowing they could draft Luck. Teams absolutely look to the future when the future is already on the roster or knocking on the door. I see zero reasons the Patriots would not be thinking the same way. If JG is top 15 QB material there's no way they let him leave. If he's not top 15 QB material there's no reason we should want him.

I'm not that high on Jefferson. He'd be a solid upgrade over HJQ but he's not a good coverage guy and he has some inconsistencies in his play. He's probably going to get far more money than he's worth in FA. I think can Amos fill the SS role equally as well as Jefferson.

Kazee looks like a very good late Rd prospect. Need to see how well he runs but there's no denying his football instincts.

This early in the process rankings are all over the place. They have Malik Hooker 37th at GBN and there are people talking about taking him in the top 10. It seems clear Hooker will end up as a 1st Rd pick. OTOH they still have Peppers listed 5th overall which I totally disagree with. In most place Peppers has already dropped back to a mid-1st Rd pick, maybe even later. I think that fits better with a guy who is not that good in coverage, even if he has the athletic ability to do so. There's too much projection on Peppers for him to be a top 10 pick IMO. We'll see what positions these two hold on GBN in March. http://draftboardguru.com/top100/ There is a lot of evaluation still needing to be done and over the next month things will balance out. I like these exercises on our board because we live in different regions and see players around the nation. That gives me a good indication of who to start looking at in the mid to late rounds. We're not going to get much media coverage on players in the backend of the draft.

Being bold, getting outside the box and making people say WTF. Let me lay the groundwork for this. I see Garrett gone #1 overall and the 49ers taking a QB, likely Trubisky. With that the Bears shock Mel Kiper and take Rd 1 #3 overall Jamal Adams S athleticism to play all DB positions and leadership to get everyone lined up before the snap This puts Jonathan Allen on the board at #4 for the Jaguars and with Solomon Thomas now sitting as the 3rd best player overall ( http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/prospectrankings) both these DEs (Allen, Thomas) go next. The Jets bypass a QB here which ultimately nets Cleveland exactly what they want when they draft DeShaun Watson with the 12th pick. Cardinals feel too much value on the board and too many pressing needs to take a QB 13th overall. With Kizer still on the board Pace knows he must get ahead of the Texans. He finds a trading partner at 18 in Tenn and gives them Alshon Jeffrey, a big proven WR they need for Mariotta, and our 2nd Rd pick. Tennessee also gives us their second 3rd Rd pick (#83 overall). Rd 1 #18 QB D. Kizer In Rd 3 of a deep draft Pace drafts: #67: CB Rasul Douglass #83: WR Isaiah Ford Rd 4 OT Conor McDermott

I don't disagree on your points but the thread is about making a bold prediction. For me that means something unexpected and a bit shocking. Taking Watson with the 3rd overall pick would fit that description for me. I don't actually see Watson as a high end QB either. I think his ceiling is mid-level starter, which is someone you can win with. I see more upside with either Kizer or Trubisky but if Watson can perform consistently in the NFL that would be an improvement for our roster. Maybe we should put this being bold question another way and ask: What would Emery do?

I wouldn't. If they do that in the midst of a "bad QB" draft they are telling the world they made a big mistake last year. I would however give them a 5th Rd pick for their troubles and take Lynch in exchange. I liked Lynch last year too but wondered how he'd fare coming out of a 1-and-run system (1 read that is), especially since he played at a program that seeing competition well below the NFL level. He hasn't done well at all. Mariotta came out of a 1-and-run system too but he transitioned far better. With so many college's using this style of offense it makes me wonder how you figure out who can quickly discern the reads across the field?

Agreed, a classless approach to covering a no-risk contract from the Bears. Especially in a league where almost every season teams go from worst to first.

That context is different from my understanding of the 5T which I thought was inside the OT. Outside the OT is where GArrett belongs, so we're in agreement and he absolutely has the ability to go out as far as the wide 9 although with that strength I'd keep him in closer. I assume the 6T and 7T are spots over and outside the TE. I can't imagine any TE who wants to, or can, match up against Garrett especially in today's NFL where TE's are more of the move types. They are going to lose big on either power or speed which means their OT has to be occupied with Garrett as well. That leaves a nice consistent gap (meaning play after play) for the LB to cover the run or blitz into. This is the NFL so most teams can cover him with double teams but we have Floyd on the other side and some beef up the middle in Goldman and Hicks that can't often be handled one on one. It's been a long time since we had a defensive front like the '85 Bears but Garrett, along with an improved Floyd and Goldman, could see a return to that kind of dominance.

I don't view Garrapolo as less risk than the top 3 options in this draft. Each has their own issues and concerns IMO. Is JimmyG's lack of arm strength a concern as the season goes deep into Dec/Jan (should we make the playoffs)?

Great news and well deserved.

No way does Garrett belong as a 5T DE, with that rare combination of explosiveness, strength and the ability to bend the edge he absolutely belongs on the outside. He does have the strength to move inside occasionally, and will be a beast on stunts with his ability to convert speed-to-power, but I don't see him making a living as a 5T. He's young and he's already tossing around OTs with his lower body strength. He will dominate his edge as well in the running game handling both gaps. McPhee also does this very well but he doesn't have the burst to convert back to a pass rush like Garrett. A player like Garrett on the edge makes an OC start taking plays off the table. That right there makes the rest of the defense better. If he's there at #3 take him.

I'd have to say taking Watson with the 3rd overall pick would top my list.

At the time I did this I used the top 100 board here: http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/prospectrankings All players were within about 5 spots of where I selected them. Things are changing quickly and a day after doing this Bolles suddenly showed up on a CBS Mock at pick #20. When I did this I think he was ranked about 30th overall. Jackson was shown as 54th overall and as I said I think he might slip back to early 3rd. That will likely change once the combine is over.

Then I must be on to something. I am surprised you don't like on OT in the 2nd Rd. I've seen Bolles mocked as high as 20th in the 1st Rd, ahead of Robinson.

Maybe I should have posted it like this because I haven't seen a single complaint and this is a thread Jason started. FA #1 - Eric Berry FS (like duct tape across the entire secondary Berry fixes all sorts of gaps) FA #2 - Terrelle Pryor WR (Cam Meredith gives the Bears a bit of confidence in the WR corps and the Bears decide to move on from Alshon Jeffrey and field the most athletic tandem of big WRs in the NFL) FA #3 - Kyle Juszczyk FB (with no good options at QB the 2017 Bears will rely on their running game. Go out and get one of the best FBs in the NFL to help clear space for Jordan Howard. Juszczyk is versatile, good in pass pro, can catch/run as well as make excellent lead blocks and is good on special teams where we could use leadership. Forget what FBs "make", use some of that Cutler/QB position savings and just pay the man) http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/ravens/...1227-story.html 1. QB Trubisky/Kizer I'm waiting on more draft info, right now I lean toward Trubisky over Kizer. 2. OT Garrett Bolles Good feet, good power, bad attitude. 3. CB Adoree Jackson Not quite the size Fangio wants but has all the athleticism needed to match up well on the outside and he has balls skills. I think he falls a bit just because so many CBs go ahead of him teams start drafting other positions and he has some work to do as a CB. His ability as a KR/PR is also welcome. 4. TE Adam Shaheen He has the size to be a good inline blocker yet can run/catch. DII so he's got a lot to learn but I'll let the man-among-boys tape do the talking 4. WR Artavis Scott fits the need at slot WR has some deep speed and can return kicks 5. RB Brian Hill competes to backup Howard 7. ILB Jaylen Reeves-Maybin more of good coverage LB, which was Timu's biggest liability.

No because a) not a big fan of Peppers as there is far too much projection into what he can become as a safety in coverage and coverage is the main deficiency in our secondary. DeShaun Watson just showed why he will be a high 1st RD draft pick. King and Ramczyk would be good pickups in the 2nd Rd although I'd take the OT first in a deep CB draft.