AZ54

Stopping the run is top priority this offseason. There are other needs but RB falls way down the list as we have players who are productive in that spot. There are plenty of other spots where we can't say that.

1c. Too early to know. It was just 6 or 7 weeks after his surgery. What they find in the April checkup will determine the risk factor but nerves heal slowly so no matter what that won't entirely go away at that time. Teams will just be projecting that the nerve damage will all heal ok. I find too much value in the 1st and 2nd Rd along with our numerous needs to take the risk.

I like him. He's aggressive, has a little violence to him when he hits people and he usually wraps up on tackles and not afraid to square up on a guy when he can. His hustle on plays away from him, even breakaways all the way down field, is nice to see. Having been moved around quite a bit on his college team he's probably not solid at either CB or FS but he should offer some good versatility in coverage with TEs or RBs with that 4.46 speed. While CB might not be his best fit, fact is he can be an emergency backup at CB and that kind of vesatility is nice to have on the roster. He plays gunner on special teams too so the Bears can feel like he'll contribute early while he learns how to play in the NFL. Give him a couple years under Fangio and Co. and I think he can become a pretty good FS. Taking him with our 3rd wouldn't bother me at all. I like him a lot more than Killebrew. Here he is against better competition: http://draftbreakdown.com/video/sean-davis-vs-michigan-2015/

Agreed, the Bears are quiet negotiators. I don't think they'll put off the Jeffrey negotiations. I think Pace would rather close on that deal so his cap hit is fixed, and lower than the franchise tag, so he can go forward into FA with the rest of his plan.

Looks like we get a $35-37mil budget. Here's my guess at what the team will do: ILB Trevathan $8mil too many questions around ILB and the club says they like SMC but, as far as I know, they haven't offered a contract. Money talks and the Bears aren't talking to Shea. I don't think they want to enter the draft with two question marks at ILB. I think they want SMC back but at a price below starter money, well below starter money because they want him to be the 3rd option to compete as a starter with a rookie. CB: I was going to say we'll sign Trumaine Johnson or Sean Smith but the money thrown at FA CBs is ridiculous. http://overthecap.com/2016-nfl-free-agency...backs-overview/ CB: Patrick Robinson $3mil/yr Depth signing, good all-around veteran CB, re-sign Porter to a similar deal that allows us to get out after 1 or 2 years. RG Osemele $6mil Fix RG, team keeps Long at RT DT Ian Williams $4mil S George Iloka $3mil S/ST David Bruton $2mil (replaces Prosinski) TE: Dwayne Allen $3mil Not sure he's done enough to warrant a $5mil deal. He hasn't done enough to earn $3mil either. If we trade Martellus I think we can get more than a 5th Rd pick given the weak TE draft class. Teams have cap space, his deal is affordable, and he's still young enough to play well for a few years. Maybe a 4th or 5th plus later pick. If anyone throws a 3rd Rd pick at us. Total $29mil. I'm cheap so I'm probably off on the contracts by about 10%. Let's call it $32mil. Plus I'd cut Antrele Rolle if we sign both those safeties because we still have HJQ and I like his potential. That adds $2.7mil to the $23mil remaining so we'd have $26mil left. Team can re-sign Jeffrey, Zach Miller, Porter, and maybe do an extension on Kyle Long's contract (with some bonus pushed into 2017). If we trade Bennett it frees up around $5mil. Use the change leftover to sign better depth players along the Oline, Dline, or CBs as some veterans usually end up lowering their price quite a bit by the 3rd week of FA. Last year we were bargain basement shoppers (see Ducasse), this year we can work the 2nd/3rd waves of FA a bit more aggressively. Plus we need to reserve $7.3mil for the rookie pool.

Chris Jones ran a 5.03 forty, with a more-relevant-to-the-DT-job 10yd split of 1.70. Joey Bosa's 10yd split was 1.69. Last screen shot I can recall on NFL Network, Jones' 10yd split was ranked top 10 among all Dline although there 5 or so players tied for 10th. He has some burst off the line, enough that a good coach should be able to get a decent pass rush out of him especially with his strength. He does not offer a ton of lateral movement so he's not like Sheldon Rankins but if he's got a single blocker in front of him he'll be able to push the pocket. A quick search of a few top 50 lists post combine have him anywhere from 25th to high 30's. I still like him for our 2nd Rd pick if we only sign one FA DT.

Best edge rusher in the draft is probably still correct. I still don't think that puts him in the top 10 overall, or in our case the best fit for our needs at #11.

The problem or concern I had with Lee is that he is almost always lined up outside. OSU used him to counter the spread offenses and he's good in coverage. I'm just not sure how his game will translate to playing inside. Yes, Fangio needs ILB who can cover but they still have to be physical and able to move through the trash around the LOS. Considering the 11th overall pick I'd like to feel more confident in who we choose. I think the pundits on TV have it right when they say his best fit is at WLB and Lee might be great in Brigg's old-role. Who impressed me in the LB drills was the slimmed down Ragland. We all focus on the forty time, I think he ran a 4.7, but when watching him in drills his lateral movement was very quick. He'll have some limitations in coverage because he can't turn and run like Lee, but he's going to give you the negative plays that a defense needs in order to get off the field and our run defense immediately goes up a couple notches. Among the 1st Rd LB I still prefer Myles Jack overall but if it were a choice between Lee's speed or Ragland I think I'd take Ragland. IIRC, Chris Borland played well in his single season under Fangio and he was slower than Ragland, definitely more quick than fast. Pair Ragland up with Trevathan and we'd be much better in the middle.

Had to get out the search party to find much about him. He looked good against Ohio State on some plays but I'm at a loss as to why his coaches had him playing DE in 3-4 alignment. Must have been a case of getting their best players on the field. He's not built to battle inside against OG/OTs but all things considered (like his 235lbs) he held up well. When he gets lined up outside and can use his speed he's tougher to block. Seems like a good prospect for day 3 in the draft.

Spence didn't impress me today. What he did at the combine matched what I saw on his tape, he's just not that explosive off the line.

There are your targets in FA. I don't mind signing two of those preferably Howard and Williams. Then add an early draft pick to the mix. The rest of the group Ferguson, Sutton, Unrein/Jenkins (if we bring either back), and Cornelius Washington compete for a job.

I was just thinking Fairley would compete to be part of the rotation. I couldn't guarantee him a starting job, nor starting money.

I don't know what his market will be in FA but Bruce Irvin might be an interesting player to add at OLB. I think he's too one dimensional and I'm not interested in over-paying him.

Some good words on Doughty... http://www.si.com/nfl/2016/02/27/NFL-combi...ghty-Jared-Goff

Vitale impressed me with his performance at the combine. He has a lot more short area quickness than I expected and that vertical leap for a big FB is impressive. The 4.6 forty doesn't hurt either. Adding him into the mix with Langford and Carey would make a nice versatile group of RBs. The opposite end of the spectrum is a guy like Tyler Ervin who can also return kicks. Do we want to add speed or power?

I was able to watch some of the early group of QBs. I agree with your observations on Hackenberg and Adams. Combine stuff for QBs is a small piece of the puzzle so I don't put much stock into. As a late round QB Adams intrigues me. He'd be ranked much higher if he were taller but other than that he can do it all. The only caveat for me about his size is that he's not particularly fast or evasive. You'd like to have that in a QB who might have to get out of the pocket to find a passing lane. I'm just not a fan of Connor Cook. Briskett is just slow at everything he did, running, throwing, walking. Cardale Jones arm strength and accuracy are good but more and more it seems he can't handle the mental aspects of the QB position. When we narrow it down to day 3 prospects there was one other QB who caught my eye and that was Jeff Driskel. He's fast, very good athlete overall. I thought he threw the ball well. Reading up on him shows he's had some struggles but it would be interesting to know if those were maturity based (i.e. not putting in the time/effort) or just limits on what he can read on the field. http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/players...45/jeff-driskel

Buckner, Washington, Butler, and of course Jones I think would be immediate help on the Dline. Kaufusi doesn't appear to be strong enough to hold up inside and isn't quick enough on the outside. At least on the outside he's not offering anything we don't already have in our current crop of OLB. He's a good versatile player and has the size to add more bulk for 3-4 DE I just think that'll take a year or two see on field. But why is he so slow off the snap? He wants to stand up right away instead of moving forward with good body lean. A coach should be able to help with that but if not, in the NFL OG's will just move him backwards off the line. I'm not big on A'Shawn Robinson in the first round but if he were there with our 2nd pick that'd be a good pick. I like his teammate better, Jaran Reed who hustles all over the field. If we get Robinson in the 2nd Rd, even if he's not providing much pass rush he's got the talent to eat up blocks and get some push up the middle. The tools are there for him to be more productive so maybe Fangio and Co. can help him reach his potential. Oakman is a paper tiger. I want nothing to do with him. Carl Nassib gets pushed around too much for my liking. Dodd is a good football player, I like him, but, much like Kaufusi, with the Dline talent in this draft why grab someone that isn't a perfect fit for what we need (3-4 DE) when there are better options available in the first couple rounds?

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/nfl-dra...-multiple-teams

He's not fast, but he has a bit of a burst or quickness to his first step. I still think Chris Jones fits the scheme: http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/footb...0227-story.html "Finding linemen who fit the scheme is challenging, Pace said, because many college defenses prioritize shooting gaps and penetrating, an approach generally more suited to a 4-3 front." "When we're looking at these 3-4 defensive linemen, we're looking at guys who can take on blocks with their hands," Pace said. "And they have length to separate and shed, and they're stout."

Been thinking about Fairley as a decent 2nd option (i.e. sign 2 FAs) for the Dline. I'd like to see Pace explore this option in the 2nd wave of FA. Fairley's upside is better than Jenkins, or Unrein (I still like Unrein). His floor might be tougher to predict but I think he'd be more productive than Will Sutton.

Nerve damage....that's horrible news for Smith. Early reports were that there was no nerve damage. I'm guessing his camp released that information indicating that there should be no lasting nerve damage. For me it takes him off the board completely right now simply due to the questions about how severe the nerve injury was. Not to mention the lack of depth on this team. I'm not sure how well an exam can decipher the extent of the nerve damage so there are big questions here. However, I'd visit him again closer to the draft to see how he's progressing. From what little I've read today, nerves heel slowly, about 1-2mm per day but I'd have to see some good signs of progress to put him back on the board. It seems most likely that he should regain full use of that leg but there's a good chance it will never function the same again. No doubt he has the best medical care he can get and treatments improve quickly these days. http://ravallirepublic.com/lifestyles/heal...1a4bcf887a.html However many weeks/months it will take the nerves to heal will just delay the rehab he has to do for the ligament injuries, either in part or entirely. So you're not just writing off this season, you don't know what you'll have next season either. If he's getting better in 6 weeks perhaps 5th or 6th Rd? We just have too many needs to invest anything higher than that IMO. Even a player like Tyler Ervin in 4th/5th Rd could likely contribute.

I still like Tyler Ervin as PR/KR and 3rd down RB, slot WR.

I thought I should pull Ian Williams situational stats since I did this for Malik Jackson. Where Jackson faded significantly in the 4th quarter Williams improves. Tot Tackles 1st Q: 14 2nd Q: 10 3rd Q: 20 4th Q: 21 He only has 1 sack so he isn't going to contribute there but he will be solid throughout the game right up to the end where he's needed most.

3rd ranked but that was achieved with elite talent around him. I can't recall seeing him make any type of plays where he looked like a dominant player among the several Broncos games I watched. Against Chicago his stat line was an impressive 0-0-0. His situational stats indicate a player who tires out easily, or gets taken out of the game. There's a big drop from 1st quarter performance to 2nd quarter. Then again 3rd quarter to an almost non-existant stat line in the 4th quarter. That's not what I'm looking for when you pay what I consider game-changer type of money. http://www.nfl.com/player/malikjackson/253...ituationalstats

http://www.denverpost.com/broncos/ci_29553...t-malik-jackson There is no way I want to pay this guy $10mil/yr for 5 years. 45 tackles combined and just 5 sacks considering the outstanding outside pressure he had forcing QBs to step up in the pocket. Especially not when the DT talent in this draft is so good throughout the first two rounds. If that's the Bronco's offer then we'd have to go well above that to get him to sign since his preference is to stay in Denver. Elway knows keeping that defense together is the only way they'll get back. But still that's getting crazy IMO and he's probably got to pay Von Miller $17-20mil/yr.