AZ54

Given our likely QB situation we would be better off signing a WR who can best work the short/intermediate areas as opposed to deep threats. Jackson will run out of Hoyer's range in 1.5 seconds, and he'll grow tired of all the WR screens (and big hits) he'll have get.

Glennon biggest claim to fame is that he drove his team to use a #1 overall pick on another QB. I like the fact Pace won't hand over high picks to NE for JimmyG in desperation, at least not yet. While we have no idea what's been offered this is a good sign he's got his head on right when it comes to the valuation of players. If Belichick wants to play hard ball we just move on to other options. I tend to agree with Jason, other than Garoppolo none of the other options are really better than Hoyer. They might offer different physical talent (i.e. stronger arm) but at least we know Hoyer has the mental side of it down on passes within 15 yards of the LOS. I'd say anyone such as Glennon would likely end up backing up Hoyer. I know none of the rookies are ready to play in year 1. I still like Trubisky but don't necessarily like the idea of using #3 overall on him. In this marketplace (and draft) we have to consider the total value of any deal we make. Give up a 2nd and next year's 3rd for JimmyG? Trade a 3rd for Glennon who is somewhat of a known commodity? The flip side is you can package that 3rd Rd pick with our 2nd Rd pick to move up to #20 in the 1st Rd and take Mahommes. I'd rather have Mahommes' upside even knowing he's at least a 2 year project. Everything I've read says Mahommes has the right approach to being a franchise QB. We might get Kizer or Watson at #20 too, maybe even Trubisky. I think all four of them are better options than Glennon. I'd put Garoppolo in the same category as the top 4 QBs in this draft. Pace should stay within his valuation window on these QBs. If another team overpays for Garoppolo that just takes them off the QB list for the draft. When going for JimmyG or Glennon we must also figure in the high cost of their new contracts because that's an offset against signing another FA starter, or solid FA backup. FWIW I still think Trubisky at #3 plus keeping our 2nd and 3rd Rd picks in this draft is at least an equal value to the above options. There are starting caliber players to be had in those rounds. We'll see how Trubisky looks at the combine and again at his pro day.

a few lucky breaks...and one QB.

As much as I like him I think we should bypass the very high-priced Campbell and pursue Johnathan Hankins. He's versatile enough to give us some pass rush at DE, or he can anchor the NT spot. http://www.espn.com/blog/new-york-giants/p...e-as-free-agent "Hankins had 43 tackles, 3.0 sacks and was third on the Giants with eight tackles for a loss and 10 quarterback hits." If the article's estimate of contract value is correct (5 yr, $43mil, $16mil guaranteed) then it fits in well with our cap space. He's young at 25yr old and we can use the difference in contracts (Campbell - Hankins) to extend Hicks deal. Hankins probably fits in the same mold as Hicks as a player with perhaps better first step quickness. ---- Draft Solomon Thomas and put him at OLB/LDE and we have a top 5 defensive front with versatility for any down/distance. On the outside figure McPhee rotates with Thomas and then we have Young, and RRH/Ocho. Interior backups we'd have Bullard, perhaps one of Washington/Unrein/Sutton/Ferguson whoever wins the job.

This is a good summary of some flags on players that teams will be watching closely at the combine. http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/news/nf...s-measurements/

I like the fact Pace is floating around that we're not "all-in" on Garoppolo. McCarron in my view is no better or worse than Hoyer. Giving up a draft pick for him makes him a little worse as we might as well grab our own QB like Webb or Peterman with that pick.

I think there will be discussions at the combine, mainly Cutler's agent shopping him around and talking with teams about contract terms. I don't think we'll see any movement on the trade front, if it happens at all, until closer to the draft. Cutler is still rehabbing from his surgery and I'm not sure how soon he can throw. Then I think there are other pieces in the QB market that have to fall in place first: Romo, Garoppolo, and most importantly Cousins. Pace could release Cutler outright but I would expect that only if there were something cap wise that made it a compelling decision. I think he just has a roster bonus now that pays only during the season but maybe there is something in the contract relative to the start of the league year. For now I think Pace hangs on hoping to get a late round draft pick out of it.

Excellent assessment and the more I've thought about this offseason, between the talent in FA and the draft, the more I see Pace/Fox focused on building the defense. Given the makeup of the roster this is likely the shortest path to winning.

I can see that perspective but I don't agree with it. Jeffrey's record defines him as a player and that is one who misses numerous games and practices every season. Compare him against Antonio Brown and it's night and day. There should be no reason for his health to get better as he gets older. As far as nothing in return, when you spend $15mil and your player is sidelined for injury or suspended you are getting zero Return on Investment (ROI) those weeks. I've seen a lot of weeks in the last 3 seasons with little to no ROI on Jeffrey. If Jeffrey leaves we'll get $15mil in cap space and Pace can go out and sign the top 2 FA CBs if he so chooses. There's a higher probability of that making this team better because with question marks at QB we need a strong defense and a strong running game. There are already some good pieces in place on both sides to make that happen. Add to them.

I'm not sure how much a WR who often misses practice and games would help a rookie QB. There are options in FA to add some depth to the WR corps. Cleveland won't be tagging Pryor but you have to figure they will match any offer he gets. http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap300000078...-alshon-jeffery

Given the lengthy rehab work he has to do this offseason just to get his physical skills back this is not the ideal time to move him to LT.

I agree.

Lasike isn't even close to being in the same class. When you think if Juszczyk think more h-back than FB and we used Miller in the h-back role a lot. In fact if he were officially in an h-back role he'd be talked about as one of the best FA TEs available.

I spell his last name with no issues but ya' know, it's all in the (Polish) family. I don't think he's coming here for $2mil/yr. Likely $3mi/yr, probably higher. I know he's a FB and the highest paid in the league is ~2mil/yr but he's got more versatility than that. He also helps take backup RB and backup TE off the needs list a bit even though I still expect us to address both positions this offseason. This guy is equally as good a football player as Zach Miller if not better. Pay him.

I saw a report that Cutler might just retire. If true, what that means is he really just wants to play for a contender. That could also mean he's no longer in it for money (he's made quite a bit thank you Phil Emery) and he will renegotiate his contract if he can find the right team. With this being released to everyone then it is quite possible Cutler already has his agent shopping some contract terms with possible suitors. If he's willing to come in and play somewhere for less than $10mil, or really work a team friendly deal, then there is going to be some interest. He'd be a good short-term fit in Houston who has the defense to cover his mistakes but also has the weapons to take advantage of his arm strength. Will Fuller V would be running a lot of deep routes. Hopkins? Say what you want but he's far better than Osweiller and less of health risk than Romo's back issues.

Right now there's not much of a market so if we get anything at all in exchange it'll be a welcome deal. I always felt teams would be more likely to trade for him after the draft once they see how things ended up. Everyone more or less knew Cutler was gone this year but for Pace to jump on this so early is significant. It may mean he likes at least two of the young QBs in this draft and will take either one who is on the board. There's a lot going on in the off-season QB market right now between Romo, Garoppolo, and Taylor. There is some speculation that SF might give up two 1st Rd picks for Cousins. We know Washington hasn't been sold on Cousins as a franchise QB, but if that happens what does Washington do? If Gruden feels the offense's success is more his system, and that he can get Cutler to do what Gase was able to do with him, then having four 1st Rd picks in the next two drafts plus another 8-10mil in cap space could be tempting. That would also position Washington in a good spot with the QBs in next years draft.

http://www.csnchicago.com/chicago-bears/re...ners-jay-cutler

I forgot to add that I would like to sign FB Kyle Juszczyk. He'd be a great combination in the backfield with Howard. We have no QB (of note) to throw the ball so we need all the help we can get in the running game. He's very good in pass protection and can catch well out of the backfield so that takes some pressure off the TE situation. Lastly, he's a core special teams player for Baltimore and some more help there would be welcome as well. He'll be the highest paid FB in the league but we'll be among the lowest in QB salary in the league.

Not saying we wouldn't like to have better players at OT. I'm saying they are far from the highest priority. I don't know what PFF says about our DB performance but I doubt it's anywhere close to average.

I don't disagree with the premise it is extremely hard to find a franchise QB.

I'm not saying we should cut McPhee but if that is what we needed to do in order to sign Ingram I'd do it.

Good analysis and backs up what we already know.

His knee surgery kept him out of most of the season and when he returned he was a part time player who was not nearly as effective as he was early in 2015. If he can return to form then absolutely I want him on the team. Reality is that he might never get back to that level of play and he may never be able to handle the number of plays expected of a starter.

Maybe you are right. Given what I read about him here he seems like a perfect fit for us. Pay the man and make it so! http://dawindycity.com/2017/02/08/chicago-...re-free-agency/ Some highlights What did they say when he was drafted years ago (i.e. would we want to draft him now): http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/players...torical/1664166

Most in the NFL consider Luck a franchise QB. Tannehill has been alright but is not franchise level. Let's see what another season with Gase does for him. He also had the most uphill battle coming from very little experience in college. Stafford I think is a good QB. Seems like Cam Newton managed to win an NFL MVP award and take his team to the Super Bowl. Jameis Winston, Wentz, and Mariota have all shown enough promise to warrant their draft selection. It takes years to mature into the QB position in the NFL. Bortles hasn't been a failure yet. When drafting a QB you will most likely not get the "Pro Bowl" value of a player from another position but QB is different. If you don't have at least an average one you don't win at all. That's why an average QB like Andy Dalton makes $15mil/yr and All Pro "franchise" safety like Eric Berry will make $10mil. Even the top "franchise" Pro Bowl Left Tackles are making $12-13mil/yr. All I'm saying is value of the QB position cannot be correlated to value of other positions. IMO that means finding a good starting QB with a 1st Rd pick is comparable to finding a Pro Bowl player at another position with your 1st Rd pick. A couple other positions have a higher success rate than 1st RD QBs, but some don't. There are two other positions I'd take ahead of an average starting QB: An elite LT, or an elite pass rusher. We all know Von Miller won that Super Bowl not an average performing QB named Peyton Manning. Any other position, even Pro Bowl caliber talent, I know I can find in first round picks in years to come. Here's the biggest problem with QBs. The number of people who can successfully do this job in the NFL is very small. Compare that to the number of people who can play DT, LB, WR, etc. well and it becomes clear where you odds of success lie. In any draft history you look at it will always be easy to find a Pro Bowl players at other position who were drafted behind a 1st Rd QB. ---- This study is fairly well done. I just skimmed through some of it but most of the metrics used to evaluate success were good. QBs have a higher success rate in Rd 1-2 versus Rd 3-7. RB and WRs have a higher success rate in Rd 3-7 versus Rd 1-2. Fall 2013 Success or Bust? An Analysis of Dra Position and NFL Success Connor King St. John Fisher College http://fisherpub.sjfc.edu/cgi/viewcontent....sport_undergrad "...the results show that when drafting quarterbacks in the first and second round, NFL franchises get the majority of the selections right and do not take major risks when selecting quarterbacks." "This means that in the data’s sample size, running backs and wide receivers that were drafted in the late rounds of the NFL draft ended up being more successful than the first and second round players from each respective draft year." ------ If there is a good starting QB to be found in this draft we need to draft him even at #3. I think Trubisky can be that QB.