AZ54

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/nfl-dra...-multiple-teams

He's not fast, but he has a bit of a burst or quickness to his first step. I still think Chris Jones fits the scheme: http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/footb...0227-story.html "Finding linemen who fit the scheme is challenging, Pace said, because many college defenses prioritize shooting gaps and penetrating, an approach generally more suited to a 4-3 front." "When we're looking at these 3-4 defensive linemen, we're looking at guys who can take on blocks with their hands," Pace said. "And they have length to separate and shed, and they're stout."

Been thinking about Fairley as a decent 2nd option (i.e. sign 2 FAs) for the Dline. I'd like to see Pace explore this option in the 2nd wave of FA. Fairley's upside is better than Jenkins, or Unrein (I still like Unrein). His floor might be tougher to predict but I think he'd be more productive than Will Sutton.

Nerve damage....that's horrible news for Smith. Early reports were that there was no nerve damage. I'm guessing his camp released that information indicating that there should be no lasting nerve damage. For me it takes him off the board completely right now simply due to the questions about how severe the nerve injury was. Not to mention the lack of depth on this team. I'm not sure how well an exam can decipher the extent of the nerve damage so there are big questions here. However, I'd visit him again closer to the draft to see how he's progressing. From what little I've read today, nerves heel slowly, about 1-2mm per day but I'd have to see some good signs of progress to put him back on the board. It seems most likely that he should regain full use of that leg but there's a good chance it will never function the same again. No doubt he has the best medical care he can get and treatments improve quickly these days. http://ravallirepublic.com/lifestyles/heal...1a4bcf887a.html However many weeks/months it will take the nerves to heal will just delay the rehab he has to do for the ligament injuries, either in part or entirely. So you're not just writing off this season, you don't know what you'll have next season either. If he's getting better in 6 weeks perhaps 5th or 6th Rd? We just have too many needs to invest anything higher than that IMO. Even a player like Tyler Ervin in 4th/5th Rd could likely contribute.

I still like Tyler Ervin as PR/KR and 3rd down RB, slot WR.

I thought I should pull Ian Williams situational stats since I did this for Malik Jackson. Where Jackson faded significantly in the 4th quarter Williams improves. Tot Tackles 1st Q: 14 2nd Q: 10 3rd Q: 20 4th Q: 21 He only has 1 sack so he isn't going to contribute there but he will be solid throughout the game right up to the end where he's needed most.

3rd ranked but that was achieved with elite talent around him. I can't recall seeing him make any type of plays where he looked like a dominant player among the several Broncos games I watched. Against Chicago his stat line was an impressive 0-0-0. His situational stats indicate a player who tires out easily, or gets taken out of the game. There's a big drop from 1st quarter performance to 2nd quarter. Then again 3rd quarter to an almost non-existant stat line in the 4th quarter. That's not what I'm looking for when you pay what I consider game-changer type of money. http://www.nfl.com/player/malikjackson/253...ituationalstats

http://www.denverpost.com/broncos/ci_29553...t-malik-jackson There is no way I want to pay this guy $10mil/yr for 5 years. 45 tackles combined and just 5 sacks considering the outstanding outside pressure he had forcing QBs to step up in the pocket. Especially not when the DT talent in this draft is so good throughout the first two rounds. If that's the Bronco's offer then we'd have to go well above that to get him to sign since his preference is to stay in Denver. Elway knows keeping that defense together is the only way they'll get back. But still that's getting crazy IMO and he's probably got to pay Von Miller $17-20mil/yr.

Ranked 37 overall... http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap300000063...-2016-nfl-draft I think the upside with him is pretty good but we'd likely need to let the veterans handle more reps early in the season much like we tried to do with Goldman. Even when his technique is poor he's still so strong he can hold his ground.

I wouldn't be happy at all if they took a projected 2nd Rd pick at #11 overall. Better to grab a guy like Ragland who is at least mid-late first. There are a bunch of players rated higher that would make better choices. Just give me Jaran Reed at #11 and I'd feel much better.

I agree with that assessment and when watching film of those games he doesn't jump out at all, not even physically as in elite speed/quickness among the players. Caveat emptor!

Myles Jack is likely to have a 100% healthy knee, or nearly so. He might not be in full conditioning shape but that's a different subject not much different from White's injury late in the season where it was healed but he still didn't have full strength in his leg. If the MRI shows the meniscus tear has fully healed then there should be little worry. Jaylon Smith is a completely different story and who knows, maybe he drops to the 2nd Rd.

I'm ok with that as I proposed just that a week ago. I like Snacks better but Williams might come a bit cheaper and there is that Fangio connection. While we're at it, I just watched some film of Chris Jones and I'd like to add his name to the mix for 2nd RD DTs. This kid is young but he's strong at the point of attack, often holding up against double teams. At times he'll just rag-doll the blocker and make the tackle, which you can see against LSU where he makes a couple plays like that stopping Fournette at the LOS. He's got some pass rush to him as well. I see him looking fatigued on some plays but then again, holding up against a lot of double teams can do that. Put him out there with a nose like Ian Williams and Goldman on the other side and we'll be tough to run on. I think with a bit of seasoning he'll help make that Dline very good. http://draftbreakdown.com/video/chris-jones-vs-lsu-2015/

If the QB remaining is Wentz take him. I'll stick with BPA and on my board he's the next up but that's only because you said we had to pick here. However, with two QBs remaining they will be trade bait for New Orleans, Philly, Rams, Buffalo, and especially Houston. Someone will bite. With our top 4 targets off the board by #11, I don't see much drop off in talent between 11 and 22. With so many needs I'd go all the way back to Houston's 22nd pick if they gave us good value in return.

I think either of those players fits what Pace will target in FA.

First, great job putting that list together Adam. I think this fits exactly what Pace wants to do with FA money on a rebuilding team. No need to throw big $ at a high priced vet hoping for one more elite season like we did with Jared Allen years ago. On the Dline...I'm in the minority but the 4.5 sacks and excellent mobility we saw at times from young Mr. Goldman makes me think he'll be just fine, if not dominant, at DE in a 3-man front. I would love to have Wilkerson but he's going to break the bank and he's not going to be available. Nor do I think Pace wants that high dollar commitment in a FA. So looking at the realistic options in preferential order I like: Damon "Snacks" Harrison to anchor the nose, Jaye Howard to play DE (think he'll be a cheaper and just as productive as Jackson), Ian Williams NT, Malik Jackson. Jackson was the early favorite but when a player enters FA after winning the Superbowl that's a dream scenario like hitting the jackpot twice in one year, and I don't want to overpay for his services. I might be wrong on potential contracts but the $2mil/yr difference for Jackson over someone lesser known like Snacks, Jaye Howard, or Ian Williams gives us another good player. We need good players all over the field on defense. $6mil/yr If we go biggie size on Dline in FA then we're going after a pass rusher at DE in the draft. LB: One option here and one massive need so we overpay the man: Trevathan Find someone in the first two rounds to pair up with him. $8mil? CB: This is where it gets tough. CBs command big money in FA but after some quick research I think we'll grab the lesser known but dependable mid-level player in Trumaine Johnson. I think Fangio values consistency over the splashy INT fails that lead to big plays (think Janoris Jenkins gamble on INT and miss). It's not that Fangio doesn't want INT's but he hates giving up TDs as seen by his 8 man drop back to the goal line calls in the red zone. Also evidence for this is that he doesn't like to, or prefer to blitz. Let's bring back Porter to compete as well. With Fuller in the mix we also add a solid mid-Rd player in the draft to develop. Then we'd have some competition to start on the outside. I liked Callahan at NB last year and I think he'll be our starter this year. $6-7mil? S: I've been conservative with the money but I might risk it all on Eric Berry to lead the DBs on this defense. He isn't on the list so sticking to the theme here Iloka makes sense. $5mil/yr? OG: Osemele. I've said enough on this subject. $6mil/yr? WR: Draft a returner/slot guy TE: Draft mid-Rd player. I have no clue on contract values and I used Overthecap existing deal annual salaries by position for estimates, but feel free to educate me. I'm guessing these signings (excluding Berry of course) would take about $32mil/yr. That leaves money for Alshon and Long to get contract extensions. Push some of the guaranteed money on some deals into 2017 to spread it out. Pace may need around $8-10mil to fill out the bottom end of the roster with 1yr-deal players and cutting players like Rolle and Bennett (release him after or trade during the draft once we have his replacement) frees up a big chunk of that. Add in budget for the rookie pool and we're ready to draft.

Per NFL.com Long is 6' 3" and 268lbs. McPhee is 280lbs at OLB but also floats inside at times. Long likely has the frame to add some bulk but going from 4-3 DE to a fulltime 3-4 DE at the age of 30 is not necessarily successful. If we didn't already have a Dline jack-of-all-trades type in McPhee I'd be more open to signing him. OTOH it would also depend on what type of money he's asking for. I think he'll be getting well north of $5mil/yr and that's too rich for me on a guy who will change positions to something he's never done. Or has he already played a lot at DT?

If we're in a 4-3 alignment 60% of the time why wouldn't we want at least one player in the Dline rotation who has 3-tech pass rushing skills? I would like to think Sutton could provide that but I don't think that will materialize. Unless I missed him getting cut the Bears kept Cornelius Washington around on IR likely to see if he can fill that role next season.

I don't see the point in replacing one sometimes malcontent player in Bennett with another in Cook. I doubt Pace/Fox go that direction.

Mar 9th is the start of the signing period but teams can talk with players starting Mar 7th. http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap300000063...-dates-for-2016 I'm not that interested in Chris Long. I don't know his injury history the last two seasons nor do I see a clear fit in what we need at OLB or DE. Laurinitis might be worth a look.

That's interesting. Ware played well enough last year that he might force their hand and make them cut him because he will find a nice new contract with significant bonus money on another team.

First, I think it's impossible for Denver to keep that defense entirely together but they'll keep the core players. Malik Jackson is not a core player and they can find a replacement early in the draft. Bruton is a backup player but he's really good on special teams, something we need. If he's willing to come in and anchor our special teams and compete for a starting job I think that's a good fit. Your point is valid about the dominant pass rush being the biggest factor on that D. I'm not that enamored with Malik Jackson for the same reason: The edge rushers put so much pressure on the Oline, even with stunts, that it's going to make him free from time to time. Even with that he didn't dominate. Then you add in that Wolfe on the other side was the better player and that means Jackson was almost always 1on1. I think he's a good player but not one worth over-paying for, especially with the talent available in this draft.

Broncos should have their hands tied a bit in the FA process because they'll be sorting out how much to pay, Von Miller, then Osweiller, and then Brandon Marshall. They have $8mil in cap space right now. I assume rookie pool will be at least $5mil if not higher this year so that leaves $3mil. If, more likely when, Manning retires that frees up $19mil. So there's $22mil available and next season they have $86mil in space so they can move some bonuses into 2017. Without Manning in order to repeat in the Superbowl priority #1 has to be to keep the defense intact as much as possible. Good luck attempting to keep Von Miller from getting close to $20mil/yr after he fueled their run through the playoffs. Osweiller is going to get at least $10mil/yr and if he's any good at negotiating should have closer to $15mil. What else are the Broncos going to do coming off a Superbowl season? Looking at LB contracts I'd think Brandon Marshall will command $8-9mil/yr. They can play with the numbers and move bonuses into 2017 as much as possible but I can't see how they don't consume all of their cap space with those three contracts.

I keep coming back to Smith as our pick at #11. Right now he's going to stay a late 1st Rd pick but as the draft gets closer and he gets healthier he'll move back up.

Perry is still fast, he just doesn't offer enough shiftiness to find his way through traffic. Your point is valid in that Ervin might appear to be fast due to level of competition. Watch him rush for 160yds against an SEC opponent Auburn in 2015. He still is fast. He might not have the absolute best long speed but his acceleration and shiftiness on cuts is outstanding.