AZ54

I think we need to see two QBs taken before our 1st pick. That should setup enough talent in other spots like OT to keep other teams from going after the players we need. Manziel is the most polarizing of the QBs and could go anywhere from top 5 to late 1st. Bortles has drawn enough attention that I think he'll be gone before we pick. After those two it's hard to see anyone grabbing a QB unless a team like Minn falls in love with Carr and take him.

I'll only be mad if we go offense in Rd 1. My preference for drafting is Donald, Pryor, HHCD in that order. Beyond that, I prefer to trade back a bit and grab value. The Dline talent fits better late 1st. I'm afraid Emery will provide my WTF moment by drafting Mosley in Rd 1. I'm not a big fan of having a 235lb MLB but the kid is a good player and he's done it behind both a 4-man front and a 3-man front. I think that versatility is what draws Emery in.

I'm bracing myself for impact. If the 1st Rd breaks that way I really hope we trade back. We can drop back and find better value overall and the extra pick will be valuable this offseason.

My version of what I think we'll do in the draft and why. Next week I'll have a post about why I was wrong. Rd 1: C.J. Mosley, MLB The Bears would like to see Donald here but he's gone. Instead they grab the best MLB in the draft and setup Chicago with it's next great LB group. I know I'll hear it but with SMC running in the 4.5s, Mosley 4.6, Bostic 4.6 our LBs are everywhere and anywhere. Here's reality: Nobody on the planet believes we can count on D.J. Williams to make it through an entire season. Lance Briggs' shoulder remains an issue and he'll be playing with a harness to keep it all together. SMC is learning a new position. Bostic looked very lost inside last season. In terms of the draft there is little depth at MLB with a big drop off to the middle/late rounds. Other positions have quality deep into the draft. Rd 2: Terrence Brooks, FS We have competition at SS, we don't at FS. Brooks has speed and athleticism and is physical on contact. I like his interview and seems like a smart guy who is willing to put in the time needed to learn how to lineup the backend of the defense. Again, the Bears draft this position early based on need and lack of depth in the draft although Brooks is not a reach here. http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/players...terrence-brooks Rd 3: Will Sutton, DT Having heard he was too small for the NFL Sutton beefed up for his 2013 season with less than ideal results. I've seen him play at a lighter weight and he can get the upfield push and has the hustle needed from the 3-tech spot. The Bears roster is lacking a DT who can get pressure up the middle and Sutton fills that void nicely. Having watched a fair amount of ASU games I can state that at times he looks like he's taking plays off. He's a smaller player and needs to be part of a dline rotation but when fresh the effort is there. Rd 4: Ka'deem Carey, RB Forte gets a true backup. Carey ran slow at the combine and again at his pro day so he drops, a lot. He won't get any break away runs in the NFL but regardless, he's quick, has great vision, and can run with power. He is one of those RBs who constantly makes guys miss tackles, or finds the soft spot when nothing is there and still gains 3 yards. He can also catch out of the backfield and block in pass protection. Productive, versatile, and durable. http://draftbreakdown.com/video/kadeem-carey-vs-oregon-2013/ Rd 5: Chris Davis, CB Good athlete and can play some special teams. Not the Tillman replacement we're looking for but will provide solid depth on the roster and has enough ability to become a starter down the road. http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/players...401/chris-davis http://draftbreakdown.com/video/chris-davi...-missouri-2013/ Rd 6: Jake Murphy, TE The Bears need depth at TE, and a player who can do both block and run routes. He is more of a pass catcher, good enough to threaten the deep middle of the field but is serviceable as a blocker. http://draftbreakdown.com/video/jake-murph...tah-state-2013/ Rd 6: Logan Thomas, QB All the physical tools needed to succeed at the next level but inconsistent at times. He makes some incredibly accurate throws into traffic, accuracy on deep outs, but also displays soft touch on short routes out of the backfield. Ran a lot of read-option in college, although he's not that fast, and needs couple seasons to work on fundamentals and learning to go through progressions on his reads. http://draftbreakdown.com/video/logan-thom...-carolina-2013/

Emery's logic makes sense. Jordan Palmer, 2007's 6th Rd pick, versus 2014's 5th - 6th Rd pick; which one is more prepared to play? The one variable in this is when a guy falls due to injury and is there in the 4th/5th Rd. If he had a 2nd Rd grade before the injury red flags then he might be worth the pick. I still think we're drafting someone late with intentions of putting them on the practice squad.

I watched a couple of his games last night. I do like how he plays and you always know when he arrives. He doesn't seem to have the sudden quickness, or perhaps he's not as quick diagnosing plays. that HHCD or Pryor have but he's still fast. Plus he's 6' 1" versus Pryor being 5' 11" which should help in coverage.

That's a million dollar joint, or more assuming that's what he failed for.

I don't like Manziel as an NFL QB. Loved watching him in college but I have doubts about that style of play keeping him off the injured list at the next level. Tacklers won't bounce off him like they do with Cam Newton.

Not that I consider myself one of the gurus but I'll jump in anyway. I like him but agree with others: he appears to be more quick than fast. It is nice to see a college player with solid tackling skills for once. I watched his game against ASU, a team I know fairly well. You can see he's a good player between the hash marks. Once he gets into space for coverage players start moving past him so for our scheme that could be a big liability. If he can use his quickness to get around a block, which he's very good at doing, he's good but if a blocker gets on him he's another SMC. I don't think we'd take him in the 3rd, at least I don't like that idea as I like to see 3rd Rd picks with a little more athleticism to be starters once they develop. In the 3rd Rd, given our needs I'd be ok, but if he drops into the 4th Rd very good value. He is likely a very good specials teams player. In a 3-4 with less coverage responsibility he may have more success. OTOH, depending on how SMC and Bostic develop we could use him as a 2 down MLB... but at the moment that's a whole lot of If's. http://draftbreakdown.com/video/chris-borl...rizona-st-2013/

Usually the top end of a draft is fairly well sorted out in terms of who the first 5-7 players drafted will be. Outside of Jadeveon Clowney I don't see that this year. Evaluations of some players are all over the place as evidenced by this Top 100 list with Bridgewater as #1 overall. http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/nfl-dra...100-draft-board Aside from the Bridgewater ranking there are several others of interest to our needs. Nix is at #14 quite a bit higher than most other rankings I've seen. Safeties are ranked: Pryor #16, Ward #20, HHCD #21. It's not too hard to find HHCD ranked late 1st Rd, here at #29: http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap200000034...pects-big-board and he's got Jernigan ranked all the way back at #39 overall, again behind Nix. Nawrocki also has Mosley at #8 overall and cites his ability to be scheme versatile….a buzz word for our defensive coaching staff this offseason. ….."Smart, instinctive, fast-flowing, every-down linebacker capable of manning any position in a "40" front or steering a defense from the weak side in a "30" front" -------------- If we grab Nix it will be surprising but perhaps not quite a WTF moment as we all know who he is. Back in January we'd have all be happy if we got Nix at #14. If we grab a DT with our 1st pick, I agree that our WTF moment is going to be in Rd 2. At that point Emery might just go with the value of a TE or RB. What if Bridgewater is there for our 2nd pick? Are we really sold on Palmer as our backup QB?

We are inside 1 week left before the draft. I'm going to spend the next few days trying to figure out who Emery's WTF pick will be. So far in his drafts it's been SMC followed by Kyle Long. I just posted in the other thread about "Emery's 6". Well that's what logic tells us. History tells us we're wrong. So who are we missing? Nix? Jernigan is more of a run stuffer than pass rusher. If you're going to go that route why not get the best run stuffer in the draft, one who also has some inside push as well? It's not hard to see Nix having the better career over Jernigan. At one point it was Nix who was rated the #1 DT in this draft. Fuller? I just posted that I don't think we'd take him at #14 but I'm always wrong with Phil in Rd 1 and this kid does make plays all over the field. Ebron? As Phil said, get the players that can get on the field now. This guy paired up with our WR and Bennett would make us very hard to stop. Matt Forte will be very happy. When Bennett was injured last year our offense struggled so depth here (and at RB) is important IMO. Barr? Yes we just spent a fortune (at least in my terms) on FA DEs. Yet Jared Allen is near the end of the road in 3 years. Houston is a nice mix of run defender/pass rusher but is more of a LDE. Young is good as your backup/swing DE. Barr needs a couple seasons of coaching and could be an elite pass rusher in this league. Having that type of player on the roster is incredibly valuable, hard to find, and the timing is perfect as he gets groomed to replace Allen in 3 seasons. Dennard? Trying to model what Seattle's defense does then get an in-your-face CB who has much better speed than Richard Sherman. I can easily see him filling Tillman's role in 2015.

I agree. I can't see Fuller as being on our list for the 14th pick. While I love how he plays the game and think he would help our defense, he does not have Pro Bowl CB talent IMO. Maybe just a notch below that level, and that is certainly a player we want on our team. However, IMO with the 14th pick you grab a guy that has the ability to get to multiple Pro Bowls regardless of your current roster. In our case the roster has so many holes it's easy to fill both requirements with the right pick. I can see every player on your list having the potential getting to 2-3 Pro Bowls over an 8-10 year career.

Anderson was only good when he wasn't blocked. That happened a lot his rookie year but as soon as someone got their hands on him he did nothing. He should have never been promoted to a starting role ahead of Brown. Anyone who watched any replays (aka film) could see that. It was just one of many Lovie mysteries.

If the defensive players that best fit our needs are gone then there is someone very good on offense sitting there. However, I can't see a scenario where all 3 of Pryor, HHCD, and Donald are gone. If they are then there is likely a good trade down scenario forming for either a QB, LT, or WR.

Buried at the end of this article is a line about how Emery wanted SMC moved to LB back when Smith was still in town. ---------------------------------------------- http://espn.go.com/blog/chicago/bears/post...s-trade-for-suh But I think what a lot of folks don’t know is that, according to sources, Emery actually wanted that transition to take place a lot sooner, but Smith was reluctant to move McClellin to linebacker. ---------------------------------------------- If true it seems to indicate that SMC was somewhat of a Lovie choice although that does not absolve Emery at all for the pick. He had other options on the board at the time in Chandler Jones and Whitney Mercilus. This does bring up a ton of questions. At the top of the list for me is why didn't we switch him last year when Trestman and Tucker came to town? I don't expect Emery to ever address this as that is not his style, nor would I want to hear it. I just don't want people in the organization running around bad-mouthing past decisions when they felt something else should have been done. That is not good for team chemistry. Emery has owned up to the fact that drafting SMC to be a DE was a mistake.

Will Sutton didn't just "gain weight" he got fat. I watch quite a few ASU games and he was quicker and more of a force in 2012. Even then he was not anywhere close to the athleticism Donald displays on the field. I'd say he's closer to Melton in terms of upfield quickness but not as agile as Melton. Sutton is not a guy who is going to cut left or right and chase after a player like Russell Wilson. Maybe if he improved his conditioning he'd be better but that's what I saw this past season.

Since Dallas is now Bears-west we can use our past history under Lovie to get an idea what Dallas will do. When Lovie arrived he wanted two things: 3-technique DT and a DE. During the course of his tenure the need for a DE was high enough that we traded twice to get one: Ogunleye and Gaines Adams. In Dallas they just gave big $$$ to Henry Melton. Drafting another DT in Donald who is also a bit deficient on stopping the run makes little sense. Are you really going to line up Melton and Donald all game long on 1st down? Drafting someone like Jernigan who can handle the NT position does. But since Jerry Jones said goodbye to their best Dline player in Ware they have zero at DE. Unless you think Jeremy Mincey is that DE stud they need to make the scheme work. I don't see it. DT has better depth than DE in the draft, especially when you consider the type of player the Cowboys need to put next to Melton. I see the Cowboys taking the 2nd best DE in the draft in Kony Ealy and then DT in the 2nd Rd.

Where's the Fridge when you need him?

I'm with you on this one. Many professional athletes don't look ripped and we won't even go into baseball players physiques. Besides that, it was the Bears who pushed him to gain weight. Weight that his body wasn't really meant to have. What I like about this isn't that he is now leaner, it is the core strength he has added. http://espn.go.com/blog/chicago/bears/post...y-in-move-to-lb ------------------------------------ So I evaluated him and took a look at a lot of his stuff in college at Boise State. I realized he was missing a couple of strengths or strength qualities you need for football. He's a springy guy, so in space he can get around you. But when he would lock in with a player, he didn't have the isometric strength or back strength to drive past the guy and disengage." ------------------------------------ That's exactly the trait that many here on the board complained about, myself included. To his credit he went and worked hard to improve it.

I think Pryor grew up a bit last year in terms of his work toward being a better passer. He's dreaming if he thinks he'll get to be a starter somewhere. If he comes to accept that he'll be a backup I'd like to see the Bears bring him in for a workout and see what he has to offer. He may offer just as much as a late Rd QB does.

Jason, earlier I said I had doubts about HHCD in the 1st Rd. I've since gone back and watched more highlights courtesy of Draft Breakdown where they put up a full game's worth of plays instead of just highlights. I've changed my opinion of Dix and feel he'd be a solid choice for us in Rd 1. I believe Dix was injured last season and the highlights or games I watched a month ago were after he returned to the field late in the season. I'm not sure on that but either way I watched him in a lot more games and he can play the entire field well from run coverage to pass coverage. Given the choice I still prefer drafting Aaron Donald because I value pass rushers more than safeties. If Donald is off the board Dix is now my second choice for our 1st pick.

That "near disastrous" draft was done with the previous scouting department setup. Emery was hired relatively late prior to the draft and so he went in with the existing system and scouts. On top of that Phil effectively said at the time he was giving Lovie everything he "needed" to be successful. It is impossible to know how that impacted decisions like SMC but I don't think we can eliminate Lovie's influence in that decision, or really that whole draft. That doesn't excuse Emery from mistakes either, he had the final word. I still believe he did enough to support Lovie so that when he talked with the owners and Ted Philips he could justify why he wanted to move on and hire a new head coach. The 2013 draft is when Phil had his system and scouts in place. I don't think that was bad at all as he came away with two starters for an Oline that really needed help. We still have to see what we get with Wilson at WR but there are reasons to be optimistic. Bostic didn't play well last year but I think he'll develop into a good player for us. Greene may end up as a good backup LB for us but that's not all bad for 4th RD pick. Washington may or may not make the team this year. At a minimum Emery has drafted two Pro Bowl players in back to back drafts. That's not all bad.

I believe the Bears are done with his injury prone ways. I like him. He is not fast, not big, but has good hands and gets to the right spot on the field. Depending on how things shake out I could see him returning on a vet min deal or close to that but I think we want to see what other options we have first, as does Earl.

Ford in college for comparison to highlights of this year's RBs. http://draftbreakdown.com/video/michael-fo...-carolina-2012/ I see a guy with speed but not a lot of lateral quickness and agility to make that quick cut to get to open space. Not much different than what he showed us as a Bear IMO. That lack of lateral quickness could also hinder him in pass protection when he has to make last second adjustments. I certainly hope to be wrong. I think he'll compete for 2nd RB but he needs some good competition and I hope we find someone that beats him out for the job because that means we're that much better. Plus we've heard nothing from the team regarding confidence in Ford. That doesn't mean anything at all because it is draft time and smokescreens are everywhere. As bad as Michael Bush was last year there was plenty of opportunity for Ford to make a statement.

I do want to add a speed element to our offense but in terms of a backup RB we need someone more versatile, a true 3-down player, to take reps off Forte and help extend his career.