AZ54

Thank you Lovie Smith.

This trade is pretty surprising and offers more draft intrigue as I'm reading comments across the web. One guy brought up a great point that this trade and Mike Williams being cut almost certainly means the Chargers are drafting a WR at #5. What is likely to go down in the draft is QB, QB, QB, WR (AZ), WR (LAC), and then WR (NYG). Of course all the Caleb fans are ecstatic because Poles brought in elite WR talent for your rookie QB to succeed, along with Swift as a receiving threat, and another good TE. Add another piece to the Oline and we're ready. That cuts both ways if we keep Fields. Regardless, what Poles had to consider when Allen hit the market is 1) someone will make that trade and 2) how the draft will then play out. If Poles wants QB at #1 or maybe #2 then the trade fits need, no biggie. Alternatively if you have a very strong offer on the table to trade back outside the top 10, and you're ok with keeping Fields, then now you know for sure you won't get one of the top 3 WRs even at #9. Any WR we get outside the top 10 will be more of a role player in his rookie year. The trade for Allen mitigates that risk. A big trade back could net you additional 1st Rd picks in 2025 and 2026 (plus more) which then mitigates your QB risk with Fields. Considering their division neither team is likely to be drafting outside the top 20 in the next 2 years so the value forecast on their 1st Rd picks is pretty good. Having Allen should 100% tell you if Fields is your guy before the 2025 draft. I can't see him trading with Minn. Ideally if you make this kind of a trade you go outside your conference. This leaves us with the Broncos #12 and Raiders #13 who are staring at solving the Patrick Mahomes problem for another decade, and now Jim Harbaugh and Justin Herbert to the south in LA. How do you give yourself a fighting chance? You go get the next "Patrick Mahomes". Our draft could then look like: #9 DE (best value/talent), #12. Jackson Power Johnson. He's trending toward mid-1st now., this is a bit of a reach but if he's your guy you take him. Denver has no 2nd Rd pick and I can't even find a player we'd want off their roster that would fit within our cap. Then consider Las Vegas? That's a big stretch but they got a very expensive stadium with seats to fill and bills to pay. A losing team for the next 5 years with empty seats is not a good option although maybe the owner doesn't care. Plus Vegas itself is a destination city so it's easy to fill seats with visitor's fans. Sometimes its Occams Razor and all this just means we're taking a QB at #1 or #2 if we trade back with Wash.

This is not a guy running a 4.7 forty. He's not a 4.4 forty either but there are plenty of flashes where DBs aren't catching him. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AUFUNDOaGhk

I agree, and even with Keenan Allen in house I still prefer to draft 2 WRs in the top 100. I still want one of the top 3.

What is there about Jerzan Newton at 6'2" and 32" arms that stands out as a top 20 pick? When I watch his highlights he seems a lot closer to Will Sutton than Aaron Donald. it's not that I think Newton isn't a good prospect but I don't see him winning with elite quickness off the snap ala Tommie Harris or Aaron Donald. When he doesn't win off the snap he's athletic enough to get to edge of blockers and then get upfield but will that work as well in the NFL with short arms? As Aaron Donald has lost some of his initial quickness he's had more trouble defending the run. If Newton is already in that slower category then he becomes more of a situational pass rusher and I'm not comfortable with that floor as a 1st Rd pick. Seems Newton didn't want to or couldn't work out at the combine so we'll see what his numbers are at his pro day. I still like Ruke Orhorhoro who lacks technique but has really good tools to be a 3-tech as a day 2 prospect, at 6'4". 34" arms, and his 1.67s 10yd split shows he has some burst. I think I'm just going to call him Scooby. Say his last name fast and you tell me? https://thedraftnetwork.com/2024/01/17/ruke-orhorhoro-scouting-report-nfl-draft-2024 "Orhorhoro projects as a disruptive 3-technique, single-gap defensive tackle. He is an impact player on the defensive line. There’s more room for Orhorhoro to grow and develop his game. He possesses the overall skill set to be a potential three-down defender. I view Baltimore Ravens IDL Justin Madubuike as his ceiling."

Day 3 picks can come and go all day long. Getting a quality backup in Bates is good value and not something we're going to find in the 5th Rd of the draft. N'Keal Harry was for a future 2024 7th Rd pick. Those are likely practice squad players and unfortunately that's all Harry turned out to be. You can easily find similar talent in UDFAs so no real loss of value iMO. Claypool sucked and that trade was stinking pile of guano.

I'm not a big fan of trading back from 9 because it takes you out of the range of the blue chip players and you don't get but one decent pick in exchange. Trade 9/13 and get a mid 3rd Rd pick. Trade 9/20 and you can get a 2nd Rd pick plus maybe a 4th but that's a huge drop in talent. The money ball is all about moving out of #1 and I think I'm one of just 3 fans here that would gladly do that.

As soon as I posted this I got my answer reading the Keenan Allen thread. Shelton is the gap insurance for a rookie.

Allen would be a perfect mentor for Rome Odunze. Contested catch experts on the boundary.

I don’t like it. Way too much money and a pick. This screams big trade down headed our way that will take us out of the MHJr range and will recoup the draft picks we’ve given up. Now if he got LA to pay some of that salary that’d be sweet. At 32 there isn’t really room to do anything but a one year contract extension. Even that seems risky.

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/39731763/bears-reach-one-year-deal-ex-rams-center-coleman-shelton Hard to get a read on this. The big prize Connor Williams is still available and would be a great fit but his injury recovery really clouds the contract talks. Is Shelton gap insurance if we sign Williams? Is he gap insurance to help a rookie come up to speed?

While the toss of a coin has a random outcome correctly calling the outcome does not necessarily have the same result from different individuals.

To be clear I’m in the keep Justin, keep MHJr or Rome Odunze, keep Zach Frazier or whichever OG we take in round 2. And keep the top 10 DE we draft among next years elite edge class. I have yet to see a QB worth trading all those players for.

TE is one of the most injured positions.

No way the value of aTE over the best LT prospect. If you really want a TE with that pick you try to trade down a bit and let someone else grab the OT.

DJ Moore

With Jonathan Owen’s signing Poles has remade the safety group. I’ve been drafting a safety in mocks Rd2 or 3. That’s out the window now. I haven’t felt this good about the DB group since the Mike Brown heyday. This D needs one more pass rusher. Find 2 somehow and watch out.

Go get the Center.

They have a lot more history together than that: https://www.profootballrumors.com/2024/03/bears-to-sign-te-gerald-everett#ref=home

Very good move and just above a league average salary. I agree Bowers is definitely off the prospect list.

Ain't nobody gonna out work Byard. This guy is a great locker room fit and a great player to lead the defensive backfield. He may have lost half a step but you can bet he's working this offseason to get it back. I expected we'd pay closer to $10mil for a FS so finding one now who was former All-Pro for what I think is going to be $7.5m/y is pretty good. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lCcifj6nmsI It might not be obvious but the times are changing. 2 years ago FAs spurned us even when we offered more money. 2 years ago the best coaches (coordinators) spurned us looking for a "better landing spot". This year we were the first to sign one of the best OC candidates in the offseason. Now you see a former All-Pro signing who, at this point in his career, almost certainly wants a chance to win a Superbowl but at least to be on the playoff team. Now we have Pro Bowl talent at each level of the defense and two in the backfield. Can we find a way to add one more on the front line like Danielle Hunter (est $17m/y)? Or Christian Wilkins est $15m/y? I don't think there's budget for that but it's tantalizing to think about it. If we got Wilkins then grab Turner or Latu at 9.

Yep, IMO that's Tier 2 pay. $255mil/53 players so average salary is $4.8mil/yr. Next year it goes up another $30mil which equates to $5.4mil/yr across the roster.

After JJ expect no big money deals. I think we stick with tier 2 FAs at Safety and Center. I'd love to sign Christian Wilkins but there's no money or logic for doing that when you can fix 3 positions, C, S, and #3 WR for similar money.

Bills are negative $40mil in cap space, the worst in the NFL. That's after trading Bates. They ate $4mil in dead money, Bears pay Bates $4m/yr ea 2024/25. This is exactly what we've been paying Lucas Patrick the last 2 seasons. Patrick PFF grade = 50 Bates PFF grade = 78 That's one heck of an upgrade. Of course that's assuming he's our starting Center. Even as OG depth he's more than good enough to challenge Davis and at $4mil/yr this is a really good deal for us. Giving up a 5th Rd pick in a draft where we need a lot of picks to build depth screams trade down. That is of course just my dumb opinion. A team doesn't know for sure they can trade back from 9 until draft day, and really only when they are on the clock, so that means the most likely trade back is from #1. Poles has a better feel for the level of interest and a sense of the value he might get now that the combine week is over. I don't think that's imminent either but my spidey sense still says watch for Washington. As Phx said, Bates allows us room to draft a rookie and give him a year to learn, especially key if you want to move someone like Barton from OG to C. This is supposed to be a really good IOL draft. Don't get too fixated on the big names at Center. We have a lot of needs and Poles is big on value. Trading back and drafting Powers-Johnson in Rd 1 as many mocks have done doesn't scream value and now I'd guess that's completely off the table. Van Pran's stock is falling after a poor combine, he's likely day 3 now. There are better IOL options and from what I've read that goes well into Rd 3.

I'm good, just been relaxing staying out of the noise and confusion while watching more videos of prospects. Wanted to get my preferences in before things get cooking so I can see if I'm reading the tea leaves correctly, or wrong as usual.