AZ54

Had to force that Steelers trade 9 for 17/49 just to do a what-if scenario. I think McDonald goes higher than 49 but there other Edge players available that I like. I like Spears but should have drafted a CB there... Riley Moss who I think can fit our scheme well. I realized my mistake and then of course the Patriots took him before I got to 136. The only position groups untouched were LB and CB.

How ironic would it be for this deal to happen on draft day and we end up with 17 and get 32 back from the Steelers. Straight up that deal is a little heavy in our favor so we'd have to give back about 200pts in value on the traditional trade chart. We'd likely do something with 64, maybe swap it with their 3rd Rd pick at 80. Value-wise that'd still be in our favor but they are trading into the top 10 with a shot at "the best OT" in the draft so maybe they bite. Or we have to toss in one of our 5th Rd picks and Trubisky. The easy trade value would be 9 for 17 and 49. Then we'd have 17, followed by a run of 49, 53, 61, and 64. Cap that run off with the pick of the litter at 103, the first pick on day 3. That's 6 picks in top 103 which is generally regarded as the area of the draft where you find starters. https://www.windycitygridiron.com/2023/4/11/23679565/chicago-bears-nfl-draft-pittsburgh-steelers-rumors-trade-back-from-nine-been-discussed-ryan-poles

Yannick Ngakoue career earnings $42.6M and Haason Reddick career earnings $34.5M are all you need to know about pass rusher value in the NFL. Want to win big games you need two things: A good QB and a good QB on the ground.

I don't think Mauch is an OT in the NFL. He might be able to play some snaps there to get you out of a game in the same way Borom can. While he's nasty he doesn't have anywhere close to the movement skills Skoronski has. Very few are talking about Skor as an OT although some team may try him out there just to see if he can break the mold

Getting ready for post-draft OTAs and we need another camp leg so we can see who can catch punts.

CB is the likely wild card in the top 10. It's hard to gauge for me because I'm focused on other positions. While I know there is very good talent at the top of the draft the big question I have is how quickly does that talent drop off? Teams might be thinking to get the CB early because they can get an edge rusher in Rd 2. There's always a surprise in the top 10, or two.

The problem with Kancey and the arm length issue is run defense. He may well end up a good pass rusher but remember a few years ago when we played the Rams and ran at Donald all game, with good success. Kancey could have similar issues. Pass rushing where he can use his quickness to get to edge of a blocker, or avoid their hands, is one thing but when the blockers are coming at him things are different. I've drafted him in mocks but always in Rd 2, often with us trading up for him. He's definitely someone to watch on draft day and sacking the QB is always in demand so perhaps he goes in Rd 1.

Gervon Dexter fits the 3-tech mold if someone can get him to move at the snap. Van Ness has a lot to learn to move inside fulltime. He's used to playing in space plus and he's got to bulk up. That means it's likely a full season as a backup needed before we can expect significant snaps from him inside. I think he's got the ability to play 3-tech but projecting that fulltime, and knowing the year to ramp him up, is not something I want to do with a top 10 pick. If we're drafting him it should be because he's the elite DE we need. I've got questions there too as a top 10 pick.

Saw a quote from Dan Campbell last night where he was asked about the QB position. He gave the usual stuff about Goff being the guy but then awkwardly left the door open on needing a QB soon in the future because of Goff's age. Don't be surprised if they grab Levis and let him sit behind Goff for a year.

Ok by me. I thought they’d keep Tev on the right side. Maybe they prefer Davis’ experience on the right next to a rookie?

Knowing that in just ~6mo we went from Darnell Mooney being our #1 WR to our #3 WR this doesn't bother me at all. Certainly I'd love to have that pick back but there is no WR at that pick who will help us with Job 1 (below) as much as Claypool will this year. JSN is the only WR I'm high on in Rd 1 but he's a slot WR. With Moore and Mooney we would really need a good big-body WR who can work the sidelines. We got one. We're obviously rebuilding the entire roster but IMO Job 1 in 2023 is validating Fields is our future QB. We've hedged that bet by having two 1st Rd picks next year, one a likely top 10 pick. Now with Claypool, Moore, and Mooney the WRs are good. Maybe we'll add 1 more to the mix for depth. TE is good at top 2, again can add 1 more for depth. RB has a good rotation too IMO. Center is a bit of a question mark but Whitehair represents the floor there and that's an upgrade over last year. Last year's starting C Patrick is this year's backup. We have just 1 piece remaining at RT and then it's all on Fields to show us. When you consider how far the offense talent has come in 6mo, especially given the weak WR FA market, the fact we need just one more key piece is a great position to be in heading into Poles' 2nd draft. If we get the correct RT, and if Fields is who we think he is, our offense should be good this year. If this talent isn't enough for Fields to play well then we know what must be done.

I'm still running mocks but now it's mostly to learn about some day 3 selections. I'd be pretty happy if the draft fell this way for us. I traded back with the Jets who wanted Broderick Jones, and gave me 13/43. Then at 13 I took PJJr. I'm not a big Mazi Smith fan but he was too good of a value at 61 and can fill the 5-tech role in a good rotation with Billings. Our run defense will be significantly improved. Mingo instantly upgrades and replaces ESB. In day 3 Wilson was good value and worth the injury risk at this point in the draft. With Mingo and Wilson we'll have good depth this year at WR and enough pressure to push Claypool to earn a new contract. TE Ben Sims is ranked as a UDFA but he's got good speed and hands, not the most agile runner, but is good enough to challenge for the 3rd TE role. Ω

For me there are only 2 defensive players worth taking at 9: Jalen Carter or Tyree Wilson. Both have negatives: Carter mental and Wilson health with that foot injury. Those type of injuries are always a huge concern especially for an athlete who has to push 300lb men around. I'd say we have an outside chance one of them is available at our pick but not very likely both will be. I'll guess those concerns worry Poles enough that he prefers using either one to help our effort to trade down.

That discussion wasn't about sustained success, rather would you draft a top QB knowing your Oline was bad. I would because I think I could then focus on building the line and that talent is easier to find than a starting QB. He would prefer to build the Oline first then add the QB.

1) Lots of Dline players had their best game against the Best Oline. 2) Demeco Ryans didn’t want him. But he’s a better athlete than AQM or Gipson. He’s also more versatile along the front. He’s better depth than last year and I like the move. We’re in the window where teams don’t sign FA until they see what they got in the draft. Green didn’t find the longer term deal he wanted and wasn’t comfy waiting until after the draft. I don’t think one year deals are hard to come by. So he’s looking for team that he feels gets him his best chance at a better contract in 2024 and he chose our coaches to help him do that. There is also playing time opportunity and we got loads of that too. I don’t know what we’re paying him but this feels different from last year where we had to be the “too high” bidder or last chance option even for depth players.

Even if I were to grant that JSN would get 1000 yds receiving next year I’d still make the case that getting a proper RT in Rd 1 will yield more net offense and points. In other words JSN might have his yards because he’s working the shorter routes and Fields has less time to throw. That comes at the expense of yards to DJ Moore and Mooney on deep and intermediate routes.

I can’t make any good argument for drafting a slot WR in the top 10. Especially not when we have far greater needs at more critical positions. If the goal is to add a skill position player to make the offense better Bijan is a far better prospect who can impact both the running and passing attack and I wouldn’t take him in the top ten.

There's a lot of smoke these days around the draft including some potential trades. At the top of my list is the spectacle in NE where Belichick is reportedly shopping Mac Jones. I'm so old I can remember when the media loved Jones and how he was the better pick over the other QBs. What this could mean for the draft I'm not sure and I have no clue what kind of value Jones would garner. At this point it seems clear we'll see 3 QBs go in the top 5: Stroud, Young, and Richardson. Levis is the wildcard but will he drop out of the top 10 or does Tenn come up and grab him at 9? What exactly is Belichick plan at QB? Hendon Hooker? Trade up to get Levis if he drops? https://www.profootballrumors.com/2023/04/latest-on-patriots-mac-jones Lamar Jackson has turned down something like $260mil. I have no clue where this one goes but there doesn't seem to be much interest from other teams to trade for Jackson mostly due to injury concerns with his style of play. What is the Ravens fall back plan? They don't draft until the 22nd pick. https://www.profootballrumors.com/2023/04/ravens-offered-lamar-jackson-175mm-in-total-guarantees-deal-no-longer-on-table https://www.nfl.com/news/ravens-gm-eric-decosta-sees-more-than-four-guys-in-draft-that-can-be-significant There are a few others that might not be big Rd 1 trades but could be part of package deals: Austin Ekeler and Deandre Hopkins. Somewhere I saw an article with a few more names but can't find it now.

Fact is most teams field a decent Oline. What we've had to endure the last 2 years is frightening. I still would have taken Fields when we did over any Oline player. I agree that we can disagree.

There are two ways to interpret this: 1) A Jason Kelce as in 6th Rd draft pick who in two years will work his way into being a Pro Bowl player? This version is likely Rd 2 pick because there is some concern with the "floor". 2) A Jason Kelce perennial Pro Bowl Center from year 1? This version is 15-32 1st Rd pick because the floor is pretty good on draft day.

Justin Fields, Trevor Lawrence albeit both are still a work in progress but IMO are on the right path. Joe Burrow Tua was playing very well this year before his head injuries although I'm not sold on him. Justin Herbert Josh Allen Andrew Luck Naturally the draft history is riddled with 1st Rd failures too, even at 1st overall: Murray (serious fence sitter as a talented head case), Mayfield. Now OTOH the 49ers had everything built except QB, went all-in on Trey Lance, and now a 7th Rd pick is their starter. Chiefs had everything built including a good QB playing at a Pro Bowl level and still felt it was worthwhile to trade up to take Mahomes. In the end you still have to make the right decision as to which of these college QBs is the unicorn. Looking back over the last decade, on average you only get a little over 1.1 - 1.3 starting QBs per draft depending how you count players like Carr. I may have missed a name in there somewhere but then again, some years the draft yields zero long term starting QBs. https://www.drafthistory.com/index.php/positions/qb

The QBs are the unicorns and are a whole lot more difficult to find than any Oline position. Not only are the QBs rare if the rest of your roster is ready to compete then you almost certainly won’t be in the draft position needed to draft the QB. Zero chance I’d pass on a starting QB just because I had a gap to fill on the line.

Smokescreen they could have made their decision to remove him from their board or move him way down if you have a team behind you that you think might really want Carter then to get them to trade up they have to think he is a target for you or the teams who pick in between carter and one of the QBs are the most likely bait for a team to trade up to 9

Knowing you are a build the trenches believer I’m shocked you’d be happy with that draft. I would be incredibly disappointed to see our first round pick used on a safety. A RB with our next pick would be rubbing salt in the wound. I’d be on my way to Best Buy to get a new TV to replace the one I just broke and wouldn’t see the OT you finally drafted with our third pick.

Yeah you might think he’d want someone to trade up for him.