AZ54

Go read Trench Warfare on Larry Borom and you'll feel better.

$6.5mil/yr is a heck of a value upgrade over Roquan at $20mil/yr. It appears we'll be seeing some similar value signings at DT.

Wash is going to try to win games 17 to 14.

After watching some games of Taylor earlier today I don't like him in either pass pro or run blocking. He stays too high. Reportedly the Jags ran a quick pass offense so time to protect was usually on the order of 2s. I don't know if that's true but anytime someone got low on Taylor they got around him quickly. Available space: $75mil per OTC w/ DJ Moore OC: Keep Patrick and draft rookie to compete Tier 1: RT... McGlinchey. He has health issues and sometimes pass pro issues which will keep his cost lower but he's much more of a known commodity in this offense than Taylor. That reduces the risk. If they can get his health and strength back to good we win. Plus having a vet next to Jenkins also helps him IMO. There are good OT options for us in the draft at 9 but I think Poles wants the sure thing with the Oline going into the draft. $15mil/yr DT... Dre'Mont Jones. Top target. Crushing need means we have to overpay the man. $17mil/yr. I think DE gets left to a deep draft. Total spend $32mil. Available Cap: $43mil Tier 2: LB...Okereke. Spotrac Market Value shows $2.3mil, OTC at $7mil. I'll guess he signs for $6mil/yr CB/NB... who? $5mil.... then cut Vasher to save half that so net cap hit is just $2.5mil. ( I forgot we have Michael Ojemudia, he might be good enough for them to skip signing a FA and see how the training camp battle goes with the young guys from last year). Total spend $44mil... Available Cap: $31mil Remaining money goes toward extensions for Kmet, Johnson, and Mooney (figure 2 of 3 get done) plus the draft pool which will be $10mil. Of course how they structure things could gives us more space this year. In the future we will lose Whitehair's and Eddie Jackson's contracts.

Zach Allen of AZ Cards?

After watching highlights of Moore there are a couple things about him that standout to me and I think Fields will really like. First, he's a WR you can throw open, especially on deep routes, and he adjusts to the ball really well even if he gets completely turned around. That's really hard to do. He's not the best high point pass catcher but he's got late hands that help him a lot in tight coverage. On top of that he seems to have a burst with an extra gear to separate and close on the ball if needed. I've seen him on routes with DBs that can match his speed, he'll throttle it back just a bit to keep them in his hip pocket until late in the route and then burst to the ball. That also means if the pass is slightly under-thrown DJ still has a good chance to catch it because of his strength. All told he creates a wider catch radius down field making him very QB friendly on deep routes. Not too many WRs in the NFL can do this as well as he does. At 50s in highlight video from Mayfield. 4:00min from PJ Walker. Again at 5:40 and you can see Patrick Surtain's frustration after the play. 8:25 you see him adjust to an under-thrown ball and use late hands to secure the TD and another adjustment to a poor pass on the next play. He has incredible agility to make boundary catches and keep his feet in. 3:15s. 6:20s and applies to below as well. 8:00 He keeps working late in the play. Either getting to the second window against a zone defense, or just working to get open. When combined with the traits above this is going to mesh really well with Fields' ability to extend plays. The highlight at 4min you can the original play was designed for the underneath route and Moore knew he had double coverage. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qdBrmqOSOyI&t=314s

At the Superbowl Fields said those dates were already scheduled. I'm sure they'll bring in Moore.

I'm good with keeping Seimian this year as the primary backup. He meshed well with Fields and you could see that on the sidelines when they were reviewing plays. There are so many other holes to fill this year. The better the rest of the roster is the more likely a backup is to win games which is what you saw in SF last year. Dorian Thompson-Robinson is a very good athlete but he is frustrating to watch because there are so many WTF throws. You saw that at the combine too and that's a very easy environment to throw passes because there is nobody in your face. As a UDFA he'd be worth a shot if your QB coach thinks that is fixable.

And Wash and maybe even the Jets

Suppose we make that trade back with Washington and land at 16 with Daron Payne in hand. We sign Taylor to anchor the RT spot. I'm going to assume those are out two big FA deal along with DJ Moore as the 3rd big contract. A LB is brought in on a 2nd tier deal. We'd still need one more DT and possibly LG and 2 DE. I just a did a mock and forced that trade 9 for 16 (no need to force it). Would you like this draft...

I’m thinking we stay cheaper at RT and sign Taylor plus an OC for the same money. In the wild rumor world of the Internet is the chatter we have now offered to Washington to swap first round picks in exchange for the rights to Payne. I don’t know if there is any truth to that whatsoever but it’s an interesting proposition. Further that would have to be done this weekend.

Right now my top target is Skoronski. Seems like he is the most likely perrenial Pro Bowl player and I like his position versatility. Ideal replacement at LG.

Imagine, if you will, a place and time in the future where the Carolina Panthers have the worst record in the NFL and the Bears have one of the best QBs. Ryan Poles tells the rest of the NFL if you want Caleb Williams you know the price.

Can we start a new thread for all the memes about Frank Reich and Chris Ballard?

No harm no foul. It isn't often I get something right.

Me too. A bird in the hand approach here fits as does the contract.

Who told me they wouldn't give up DJ Moore if they were trading up for a QB? Always aim high! Now we actually have a good WR group at the top 3 and will likely add a day 3 WR to help round it out with Velus.

That's why I played around with a drop back outside the top 10 in a mock draft. In that scenario my preference it to a RT with our first pick. I'd rather have the highly ranked OT than a highly ranked slot WR. JSN won't matter much if Fields is already scrambling out of the pocket and if all we can do is throw quick short routes JSN won't survive the season.

But wait there's more... https://www.si.com/nfl/bears/news/free-agent-players-who-fit-bears-needs Pro Football Focus might have faults but does a better job than any other independent source of grading off film, particularly on the offensive line. And last year they graded 81 tackles in the NFL. Taylor finished dead last as a run blocker, 81st. Even though he was highly ranked as a pass blocker, signing the worst run blocker in the league at right tackle for a run-oriented offense seems to defeat the purpose of free agency.

Did a double trade down outside the top 10 just to see how it feels. I actually like the result and this is only a 5 Rd draft. I kinda like having 4 first round picks in 2024 too. That might be wishful thinking but ending up with 3 first rd picks is definitely a possibility. With that we can control back to back NFL drafts. I tried to stick with what I think are realistic landing spots for players. For example Tyjae Spears was still around in the 4th when I took Chase but I think he'll be gone for sure. Chase might be gone too as I think he's a 3rd Rd talent, Sydney maybe higher. I like both of these players and wouldn't mind having twins on our roster. Overall I think the first 4 picks are very realistic landing spots for those players. With that I might not mind trading back outside the top 10. The last 3 might be realistic landing spots too as they all seem like depth players in the NFL. You might notice I don't know much about LB prospects because there isn't one in the list.

We have the inside scoop on Seumalo with Ian Cunningham.

Me too.

Good move, he's really good at what he does. Seems like a glue-guy in the locker room too.

That seems like the sweet spot on the value/performance curve. Brown is likely going to ask for at least $2-4mil/yr more. OTC has Taylor valued at $13mil/yr, Spotrac has him at $14mil/yr. OTC has Brown valued at $12.5mil/yr, Spotrac has him at $22mil/yr (link in case I forgot how to read big numbers: https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/kansas-city-chiefs/orlando-brown-jr-25182/market-value/ ) That's a wild disparity for Brown but you can bet he'll be asking for the $22mil version. The difference is more than enough to sign Pocic who has value around $5mil/yr at OTC plus have change leftover. Scanning all the FA Centers at OTC just a simple valuation ranking it is Pocic at $5mil/yr and then a couple guys around $3mil/yr with the rest under $2mil/yr. Trying to figure out where to put resources Center seems like a single FA option which makes me think Poles will lean toward them trying to fix that via the draft and secure the known commodity vet RT. Doing the same valuation review for LG shows Ben Powers at nearly $10mil/yr, followed by Dalton Risner at $5mil/yr. Isaac Seumalo has no valuation on OTC. I don't know if Ben Powers fits our scheme. His draft profile from 2019 says he's lacks good lateral movement skills. I can't imagine that's better in 2023. OTOH Dalton Risner can move better as per his draft profile (as OT) although there are still some limitations. Oddly his draft comparison was Cody Whitehair. Supply and demand will likely put Risner over $5mil/yr but cutting Whitehair would net us $4mil in cap space. Risner would also not be so cost prohibitive long term if we were to draft an OG early like Mauch/Avila to play Center. Just in case those guys ended up not being a good fit at C. Cutting Patrick as well would completely negate the cap hit from signing Risner. I have no clue how Risner's performance compares to Whitehair. I'm not saying this is something we should do, just that it could be a path forward to get a bit younger and cheaper on the Oline until we get our draft picks ready to take over. Call him a "bridge" LG if you want.

https://trenchwarfare.substack.com/p/2023-ol-free-agency-rankings