AZ54

Teams at 7/8/9 continue to intrigue me. Raiders: With Brady removed from the equation, Raiders fans, at least those I know, are focused on trading for Rodgers. That's a long shot IMO unless and until Rodgers forces them into a trade. His contract is very complex and it's hard to know if there's a trade clause option he can use. Just on the surface the Raiders have $18mil in cap space and Rodgers is due $60mil in salary this year. Unloading Carr frees up $29mil so they aren't far off. It makes for chatter in the offseason but I can't see how this is remotely feasible. Is Green Bay really willing to walk away from him after that big contract last year? With Brady and Rodgers out of the equation where do the Raiders turn? JimmyG is not much different from Carr although he likely knows the offensive system. He'd be an expensive stop gap but what did the team really win? They could do a rebuild and sell off some players but that seems like a tough sell after going all-in on Adams last year. ( Hey Tom, it's Josh McDaniels on the phone again...do you want to talk to him or should I tell him you're out walking on the beach like last time?). Atlanta and Carolina: Both teams are all-in on a rebuild and stuck on the outside looking in. Can they get high enough to get one of the top 3 QBs? Neither will get to #1, it's likely they don't even want to. But they will likely want to get to 3, 4, 5, or 6 which is ahead of the Raiders.

Whitehair never looked natural at Center and I don't think that's gotten better with age. There's a reason they mixed in Eiselen late in the season and it's because they are searching for someone better than Mustipher. I don't really know what Lucas Patrick is but for sure he was never better than a backup in GB. He didn't even look good enough to be a backup in his time on the field with us but maybe the injuries played into that. We are only paying him backup money, albeit good backup money at $4mil/yr. I just don't see a reason to bank on him at all and I'd rather sign someone better and then cut him saving $4mil in cap space. Then let Mustipher, Eiselen, or a rookie battle it out to be a backup. Was it Mauch who played C, OG, OT in the Senior Bowl and played well at all 3? That versatility is really valuable. He could end up starting at LG and be backup C. He could end up the starting C too.

It would be great to go into the draft not needing Oline and ideally only needing one DT to fill out a good 3-man rotation. There is CB talent early in Rd 1, as well as Edge talent throughout top 100. Fit in a LB/WR somewhere on day 2/3. I'm hoping for 5 picks in top 102 (first pick 4th Rd) if not more. In the end I don't think it's likely we fix WR via FA as the money is too high and talent pool is mediocre. Plus the balance on contracts, assuming they extend Mooney and then Claypool a year later, would be poor. We really need young talent there to pair with Velus. By the way having the first pick in Rd 4 is big plus for us because some 3rd Rd talent usually drops and if there is depth it gives us a night to plan and possibly trade back a bit and grab a 6th Rd pick in exchange. Or we just outright grab the guy who dropped.

We can get by without a blue chip stud at WR simply because Fields commands so much attention as a runner. That tends to occupy at least one 2nd level defender even on obvious 3rd and long passing downs.

We need a consensus top QB so somebody really wants to get to #1. Then two who are really close behind in grades for that to work. It's about that cluster of teams 7/8/9/11/13 (might as well toss in the Jets) who will need that 2nd or 3rd QB.

It's likely going to be a wild offseason with draft rumors. Here we are fresh off the Senior Bowl with apparently two teams kicking the tires on a trade for #1. It appears Tenn was one of the teams. I say kicking the tires because at this point that's about all that is being done. If this is true, most likely the Titans GM just wants to know if Poles would be willing to drop back to #11. I'd say yes we are open to deals involving picks and players. I assume we'd want to include Jeffrey Simmons. Using Draftek.com trade chart: 1ST PICK = 3000pts 11 = 1250, 41 = 490, 72 = 230. for a tot = 1970. I don't know what Simmons would be considered in value but for sure we'd be looking at next year's 1st (one rd lower value so figure 490pts) and likely their 2nd Rd too (250pts). Would Simmons cover the 300pt gap? Or is he worth even more than that, maybe give back their 3rd Rd pick. The caveat here is if we sign say Payne and someone else at DT in FA. Then we don't need another high priced DT. For now this is just teams getting an idea if it's even worth talking about a deal down the road. https://www.nbcsports.com/chicago/bears/todd-mcshay-says-texans-will-do-everything-bears-no1-pick

With John Michael-Schmitz showing well that should give us a few good targets at OC if we choose to use the draft to upgrade there.

I caught Bowen's comments as well. I'm not opposed to drafting a good FS, if nothing else we need better depth there but that should be a day 3 value pick if someone drops to us out of the 3rd Rd.

Agree on Darnell Wright another good RT target for us. Tank Dell is just so slim using him on inside routes I'm not sure how long he'll survive. Short also makes for a more difficult target running behind tall linemen. Maybe a day 3 target?

That will change soon but still intriguing that a former scout would rank him that high.

I want to create a new thread to capture thoughts on players in the Senior Bowl. We have quite a few comments scattered around different threads which keep morphing into new topics. This will make it easier to reference comments on players as we move through the combine and into the draft, or even post draft. I'll start with a Cyclone as a player to watch: Will McDonald. He is going to be tough for us to scout because Iowa St. used him in a 3-5 front and he was typically lined up more like a DT/DE. I've watched him in a lot of games and he's a good football player, great hustle. He just always looked over matched or out of position going head on with OG/OT and often seeing double teams. The Cyclones usually rushed only 3. I think he dropped weight since the season ended anticipating a move to being an Edge player. He's listed at 241lbs at the Senior Bowl and I'm guessing he was playing around 260lbs. With that he's moving much quicker and has been giving OTs fits in a lot of the drills. I definitely will be watching him in the game. For WR I'm leaning more towards finding a really good slot WR in the draft. Claypool is going to stay on the outside where he has the size/speed/and high-point skills to be a legit deep threat. Mooney can work either but I'm comfortable with him on the outside. Plus it's easier to find a slot WR later in the draft. In practice this week Jayden Reed was leaving DBs in the dust coming out of his breaks. He can work all 3 levels too and tracks the deep ball well. If we want Justin to work better on the quick throws he needs a reliable slot receiver who can consistently get open. https://youtu.be/3Nv5CDwk4Hk He's rising so it's hard to say where he'll end up but he's definitely a day 2 WR. JSN is another good option but his name will carry him into the first round for sure. I'd rather use that 1st Rd pick (or picks) on Dline or Oline. RT Dawand Jones. Absolute beast. I was worried about his weight as he was reported to be 380lbs and would he be too stiff to handle speed. Not a problem. He came in around 350lbs and just dominated everyone. In fact Will McDonald was the only edge player to beat him on day 1. He's definitely a 1st Rd pick now.

Poles has said elite money has to be matched against elite performance and elite football character. I can't see him spending top dollar on Davenport. A 2nd tier FA feels like a better fit here especially with a deep draft of edge rushers.

I did something similar with a few trade backs but their player rankings are so far off from reality that's about all you can use it for.

Been watching the Senior Bowl updates as well. After this I'm about to go do a double trade back scenario draft. First trade with Houston, then trade with Carolina and see how many top 100 picks I can get.

How many 6th Rd picks does it take to find one Pro Bowl player? It's here and it's clear that the best chances of finding starter caliber players lies in the first 100 draftees. Beyond that you are getting more fringe players but of course there are always exceptions. Oddly UDFA have higher % of starters in the league than any of Rds 3-7. That may be in part due to some UDFA recovering from injuries affecting draft status, or character red flags. When you look at their % games started it's clearly Rd 1-3 where the bulk of NFL starters get chosen. Look at the % Reaching All-Pro status. 48% of All Pros come from Rd 1. 2nd Rd picks land at 14%. Here again UDFA out perform even 3rd Rd picks with 10.5% over 8.8%. (article is from 2015 but I don't think the NFL draft landscape has changed much since then) https://www.forbes.com/sites/prishe/2015/05/22/tracking-nfl-draft-efficiency-how-contingent-is-success-to-draft-position/?sh=6d01e3197495

It’s only day 2 but Senior bowl practices seem to be helping a few DTs move up. We’ll see how the top 100 looks next week. If we want, we can get two good edge rushers out of this draft between day 1 and day 2. WR depth for middle rounds is showing up as well.

I stand corrected, I forgot Harbaugh had visited them. Harbaugh turning down $100mil seems odd unless he wanted more control over the roster including what to do at QB.

...and a big fat F for hiring the wrong guy last year. This is a face-saving move but giving up more draft picks again is really limiting the future of this roster. Interesting that they went after Demeco Ryans first and Payton was the 2nd choice.

Gervon is perplexing because he has talent but is so slow off the snap he's usually the last man to move. Sometimes everyone else is already upright as he's just coming out of his stance. I don't know if that can be coached out of him but in the NFL giving up a first step like that is not going to end well especially on run downs.

https://saintswire.usatoday.com/2023/01/31/sean-payton-saints-broncos-trade-compensation/ According to Schefter, the Saints will receive the Broncos’ 2023 first-round pick (No. 30) and a 2024 second-round pick for Payton and New Orleans’ 2024 third-round selection

An athletic freak who could only muster 2.5 tackles for a loss, and 0.5 sacks in 14 games? In 3 seasons at Mich he's had a whopping 3 tackles for a loss, and that half sack is the grand total for his career. That's despite playing next to Hutchinson who was a top 10 pick. If that was the best he could do against college Olinemen how does that translate to more production against NFL Olinemen? I don't see much here against TCU. In fact his strength is his best asset and they easily moved him whenever he was doubled, even at the goal line. If you can't get pass rush at least hold your ground. My guess is he ends up as just a 2-down depth player in the NFL. There are also a ton of plays where he just stands around if the ball doesn't come right at him. I can't see how that style fits in with Eberflus' HITS ethos. I've said before there just doesn't seem to be much talent at DT in this draft. Hopefully we get some surprises out of the Senior Bowl, or maybe there are some lesser rated prospects who move up as learn more info. Even Jalen Carter and Bresee have significant questions surrounding their game. I'm all-in on using FA to fix DT this year. There are a lot more options in the top 100 at Edge. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5YwcDhTgQ-c

Possibly they could line them up in the same manner but he'll know Wash will use him the same way they have in the past. I don't know how he was utilized but if he wants to be a pure 3-tech on each down and get upfield he'll likely want to go elsewhere.

I can see Poles in a conference room with his staff.... We need a patsy or two to spread rumors about us trading Justin. Who in the media should we "leak" info to?

Maybe he should be? https://www.sbnation.com/2018/3/28/17132626/nfl-draft-2018-daron-payne-breakdown https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2769384-daron-payne-nfl-draft-2018-scouting-report-for-washington-redskins-pick "Da'Ron Payne is still developing as a pass-rusher but showed in the national title game that he can dominate interior linemen when allowed to penetrate. Payne has the strength, quickness and motor to attack when freed up but will also play smart team football."

Maybe these dates have been posted elsewhere but we are a little over a month out from knowing who is available in FA. Wash has less than $7mil in cap space available right now. Wentz will be gone and free up $26mil but do they try to pick up a vet like JimmyG or Carr, or even make a play for Lamar Jackson? I could see Baltimore letting Jackson go in a tag and trade scenario and then drafting Richardson. The DT franchise tag is forecasted to be $19mil. New coaches and GMs are in place. After the games tomorrow the rumor mill starts to slowly ramp up. I can't see Rivera being comfortable putting his future solely in the hands of Heinicke, who is a FA and would likely want something around $10mil if he's brought back to be a starter even on a 1yr deal. Keeping Payne, at least on a franchise tag, really limits their options. If they can't get a deal done then I expect they'll try to tag and trade him. This is where having a ton of cap space really benefits us as opposed to other teams. We will likely still have room to swing a deal late in FA whereas other teams with more limited budgets might have to spend for the better FAs early on rather than risk getting nothing. https://commanderswire.usatoday.com/2023/01/28/washington-commanders-head-coach-ron-rivera-new-oc-need-to-win-next-year/ https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10038729-nfl-offseason-schedule-2023-draft-free-agency-franchise-tag-dates-announced "Tuesday, February 21, marks the beginning of the franchise and transition tag window, which will end on Tuesday, March 7. The league year will begin on Wednesday, March 15, and that also marks the start of the free-agency signing period."