AZ54

Alternate plan: Draft Skoronski with intent to put him at RT but give him a look at OC. Late on Day 2 or early Day 3 draft our backup OT. Basically we let 'em all compete and start the best 5. (assumption here is they want to keep Braxton Jones at LT). Skoronski could play either RT or C. Figure your floor is Whitehair at C, Skor at RT, rookie backup OT. Your ceiling is Skor at Center and your other rookie at RT plus an extra $10mil in cap space. Some of that money will be used to land a FA backup OT.

Our rushing game was better than either team that had McCaffrey last year. To that we’ve already added a better RG and a better 3rd down RB. And we’ve downgraded at RT for the moment.

For him I agree and if this were us drafting last year I'd have easily advocated for drafting him and trying him out at OT first. If it didn't work we'd have plenty of spots inside for him too. This year with such a singular need at RT that seems too risky.

I'm thinking there is too much smoke around this trade back plan with the Steelers. It appears to have first been released to reporters in Pittsburgh.... but why was it released and by who? Would Pitt really release that info? In the end there is really nothing unusual about teams reaching out before the draft to discuss potential trades. After all you are on the clock and knowing which teams to call first makes the most sense. I'd hazard a guess that Poles has talked with every team from 10-20 asking if they might consider a trade on draft day if their player is available. We don't have to know who their player is. For all we know the Eagles might be very willing to move up one slot for Jalen Carter and pay a steep price for it. Making some noise about trading with the Steelers is just like the noise around us willing to trade back to 9 with the Panthers. It drives up the price for any team in between. For the Panthers deal that extra hype got us DJ Moore who was not in the offer until last minute. Now it feels like a very similar situation with all the noise around us having two visits with Carter and it gets release that "he's our guy". Then today we're getting visits or are "high on" RTs who are back half of the 1st Rd talents (Darnell Wright and now a visit with Dawand Jones) when we could easily be drafting PJJr, or Broderick Jones. That 2nd cluster of RTs won't be around when we pick at 53. That could just be simple due diligence for a trade back, or a trade up in Rd 2, but it's also making it clear our intent is to trade back, and possibly even beyond 20. Is Poles working the rumor mill?

He's better on reach blocks than I was expecting. In part that because he's got arms forever and his feet are more nimble than expected. I'd say he moves better than Orlando Brown but he has technique issues, likely because he's been able to rely on his length and strength so far.

Sure but do you think Mauch is a rare talent at OT? I'm not seeing that anywhere. I can see us drafting him but IMO it would be to play OC, where I would welcome his attitude not to mention his ability to actually block people.

I'm doing my usual scan of Youtube videos and apparently there are rumors, totally unsubstantiated of course, that Darnell Wright is our top target for RT. Whatever little that is worth, taking him at 9 is too rich for sure so this could be noise surrounding the hope we can trade down. Plus, for any trade down scenario you must have at least two, if not more, targets. If we trade down, Darnell Wright or Anton Harrison? I'd have high confidence at least one if not both will be available at 17. Dawand Jones doesn't feel like a scheme fit for the running game but would we work around that?

Had to force that Steelers trade 9 for 17/49 just to do a what-if scenario. I think McDonald goes higher than 49 but there other Edge players available that I like. I like Spears but should have drafted a CB there... Riley Moss who I think can fit our scheme well. I realized my mistake and then of course the Patriots took him before I got to 136. The only position groups untouched were LB and CB.

How ironic would it be for this deal to happen on draft day and we end up with 17 and get 32 back from the Steelers. Straight up that deal is a little heavy in our favor so we'd have to give back about 200pts in value on the traditional trade chart. We'd likely do something with 64, maybe swap it with their 3rd Rd pick at 80. Value-wise that'd still be in our favor but they are trading into the top 10 with a shot at "the best OT" in the draft so maybe they bite. Or we have to toss in one of our 5th Rd picks and Trubisky. The easy trade value would be 9 for 17 and 49. Then we'd have 17, followed by a run of 49, 53, 61, and 64. Cap that run off with the pick of the litter at 103, the first pick on day 3. That's 6 picks in top 103 which is generally regarded as the area of the draft where you find starters. https://www.windycitygridiron.com/2023/4/11/23679565/chicago-bears-nfl-draft-pittsburgh-steelers-rumors-trade-back-from-nine-been-discussed-ryan-poles

Yannick Ngakoue career earnings $42.6M and Haason Reddick career earnings $34.5M are all you need to know about pass rusher value in the NFL. Want to win big games you need two things: A good QB and a good QB on the ground.

I don't think Mauch is an OT in the NFL. He might be able to play some snaps there to get you out of a game in the same way Borom can. While he's nasty he doesn't have anywhere close to the movement skills Skoronski has. Very few are talking about Skor as an OT although some team may try him out there just to see if he can break the mold

Getting ready for post-draft OTAs and we need another camp leg so we can see who can catch punts.

CB is the likely wild card in the top 10. It's hard to gauge for me because I'm focused on other positions. While I know there is very good talent at the top of the draft the big question I have is how quickly does that talent drop off? Teams might be thinking to get the CB early because they can get an edge rusher in Rd 2. There's always a surprise in the top 10, or two.

The problem with Kancey and the arm length issue is run defense. He may well end up a good pass rusher but remember a few years ago when we played the Rams and ran at Donald all game, with good success. Kancey could have similar issues. Pass rushing where he can use his quickness to get to edge of a blocker, or avoid their hands, is one thing but when the blockers are coming at him things are different. I've drafted him in mocks but always in Rd 2, often with us trading up for him. He's definitely someone to watch on draft day and sacking the QB is always in demand so perhaps he goes in Rd 1.

Gervon Dexter fits the 3-tech mold if someone can get him to move at the snap. Van Ness has a lot to learn to move inside fulltime. He's used to playing in space plus and he's got to bulk up. That means it's likely a full season as a backup needed before we can expect significant snaps from him inside. I think he's got the ability to play 3-tech but projecting that fulltime, and knowing the year to ramp him up, is not something I want to do with a top 10 pick. If we're drafting him it should be because he's the elite DE we need. I've got questions there too as a top 10 pick.

Saw a quote from Dan Campbell last night where he was asked about the QB position. He gave the usual stuff about Goff being the guy but then awkwardly left the door open on needing a QB soon in the future because of Goff's age. Don't be surprised if they grab Levis and let him sit behind Goff for a year.

Ok by me. I thought they’d keep Tev on the right side. Maybe they prefer Davis’ experience on the right next to a rookie?

Knowing that in just ~6mo we went from Darnell Mooney being our #1 WR to our #3 WR this doesn't bother me at all. Certainly I'd love to have that pick back but there is no WR at that pick who will help us with Job 1 (below) as much as Claypool will this year. JSN is the only WR I'm high on in Rd 1 but he's a slot WR. With Moore and Mooney we would really need a good big-body WR who can work the sidelines. We got one. We're obviously rebuilding the entire roster but IMO Job 1 in 2023 is validating Fields is our future QB. We've hedged that bet by having two 1st Rd picks next year, one a likely top 10 pick. Now with Claypool, Moore, and Mooney the WRs are good. Maybe we'll add 1 more to the mix for depth. TE is good at top 2, again can add 1 more for depth. RB has a good rotation too IMO. Center is a bit of a question mark but Whitehair represents the floor there and that's an upgrade over last year. Last year's starting C Patrick is this year's backup. We have just 1 piece remaining at RT and then it's all on Fields to show us. When you consider how far the offense talent has come in 6mo, especially given the weak WR FA market, the fact we need just one more key piece is a great position to be in heading into Poles' 2nd draft. If we get the correct RT, and if Fields is who we think he is, our offense should be good this year. If this talent isn't enough for Fields to play well then we know what must be done.

I'm still running mocks but now it's mostly to learn about some day 3 selections. I'd be pretty happy if the draft fell this way for us. I traded back with the Jets who wanted Broderick Jones, and gave me 13/43. Then at 13 I took PJJr. I'm not a big Mazi Smith fan but he was too good of a value at 61 and can fill the 5-tech role in a good rotation with Billings. Our run defense will be significantly improved. Mingo instantly upgrades and replaces ESB. In day 3 Wilson was good value and worth the injury risk at this point in the draft. With Mingo and Wilson we'll have good depth this year at WR and enough pressure to push Claypool to earn a new contract. TE Ben Sims is ranked as a UDFA but he's got good speed and hands, not the most agile runner, but is good enough to challenge for the 3rd TE role. Ω

For me there are only 2 defensive players worth taking at 9: Jalen Carter or Tyree Wilson. Both have negatives: Carter mental and Wilson health with that foot injury. Those type of injuries are always a huge concern especially for an athlete who has to push 300lb men around. I'd say we have an outside chance one of them is available at our pick but not very likely both will be. I'll guess those concerns worry Poles enough that he prefers using either one to help our effort to trade down.

That discussion wasn't about sustained success, rather would you draft a top QB knowing your Oline was bad. I would because I think I could then focus on building the line and that talent is easier to find than a starting QB. He would prefer to build the Oline first then add the QB.

1) Lots of Dline players had their best game against the Best Oline. 2) Demeco Ryans didn’t want him. But he’s a better athlete than AQM or Gipson. He’s also more versatile along the front. He’s better depth than last year and I like the move. We’re in the window where teams don’t sign FA until they see what they got in the draft. Green didn’t find the longer term deal he wanted and wasn’t comfy waiting until after the draft. I don’t think one year deals are hard to come by. So he’s looking for team that he feels gets him his best chance at a better contract in 2024 and he chose our coaches to help him do that. There is also playing time opportunity and we got loads of that too. I don’t know what we’re paying him but this feels different from last year where we had to be the “too high” bidder or last chance option even for depth players.

Even if I were to grant that JSN would get 1000 yds receiving next year I’d still make the case that getting a proper RT in Rd 1 will yield more net offense and points. In other words JSN might have his yards because he’s working the shorter routes and Fields has less time to throw. That comes at the expense of yards to DJ Moore and Mooney on deep and intermediate routes.

I can’t make any good argument for drafting a slot WR in the top 10. Especially not when we have far greater needs at more critical positions. If the goal is to add a skill position player to make the offense better Bijan is a far better prospect who can impact both the running and passing attack and I wouldn’t take him in the top ten.

There's a lot of smoke these days around the draft including some potential trades. At the top of my list is the spectacle in NE where Belichick is reportedly shopping Mac Jones. I'm so old I can remember when the media loved Jones and how he was the better pick over the other QBs. What this could mean for the draft I'm not sure and I have no clue what kind of value Jones would garner. At this point it seems clear we'll see 3 QBs go in the top 5: Stroud, Young, and Richardson. Levis is the wildcard but will he drop out of the top 10 or does Tenn come up and grab him at 9? What exactly is Belichick plan at QB? Hendon Hooker? Trade up to get Levis if he drops? https://www.profootballrumors.com/2023/04/latest-on-patriots-mac-jones Lamar Jackson has turned down something like $260mil. I have no clue where this one goes but there doesn't seem to be much interest from other teams to trade for Jackson mostly due to injury concerns with his style of play. What is the Ravens fall back plan? They don't draft until the 22nd pick. https://www.profootballrumors.com/2023/04/ravens-offered-lamar-jackson-175mm-in-total-guarantees-deal-no-longer-on-table https://www.nfl.com/news/ravens-gm-eric-decosta-sees-more-than-four-guys-in-draft-that-can-be-significant There are a few others that might not be big Rd 1 trades but could be part of package deals: Austin Ekeler and Deandre Hopkins. Somewhere I saw an article with a few more names but can't find it now.