AZ54

I caught Bowen's comments as well. I'm not opposed to drafting a good FS, if nothing else we need better depth there but that should be a day 3 value pick if someone drops to us out of the 3rd Rd.

Agree on Darnell Wright another good RT target for us. Tank Dell is just so slim using him on inside routes I'm not sure how long he'll survive. Short also makes for a more difficult target running behind tall linemen. Maybe a day 3 target?

That will change soon but still intriguing that a former scout would rank him that high.

I want to create a new thread to capture thoughts on players in the Senior Bowl. We have quite a few comments scattered around different threads which keep morphing into new topics. This will make it easier to reference comments on players as we move through the combine and into the draft, or even post draft. I'll start with a Cyclone as a player to watch: Will McDonald. He is going to be tough for us to scout because Iowa St. used him in a 3-5 front and he was typically lined up more like a DT/DE. I've watched him in a lot of games and he's a good football player, great hustle. He just always looked over matched or out of position going head on with OG/OT and often seeing double teams. The Cyclones usually rushed only 3. I think he dropped weight since the season ended anticipating a move to being an Edge player. He's listed at 241lbs at the Senior Bowl and I'm guessing he was playing around 260lbs. With that he's moving much quicker and has been giving OTs fits in a lot of the drills. I definitely will be watching him in the game. For WR I'm leaning more towards finding a really good slot WR in the draft. Claypool is going to stay on the outside where he has the size/speed/and high-point skills to be a legit deep threat. Mooney can work either but I'm comfortable with him on the outside. Plus it's easier to find a slot WR later in the draft. In practice this week Jayden Reed was leaving DBs in the dust coming out of his breaks. He can work all 3 levels too and tracks the deep ball well. If we want Justin to work better on the quick throws he needs a reliable slot receiver who can consistently get open. https://youtu.be/3Nv5CDwk4Hk He's rising so it's hard to say where he'll end up but he's definitely a day 2 WR. JSN is another good option but his name will carry him into the first round for sure. I'd rather use that 1st Rd pick (or picks) on Dline or Oline. RT Dawand Jones. Absolute beast. I was worried about his weight as he was reported to be 380lbs and would he be too stiff to handle speed. Not a problem. He came in around 350lbs and just dominated everyone. In fact Will McDonald was the only edge player to beat him on day 1. He's definitely a 1st Rd pick now.

Poles has said elite money has to be matched against elite performance and elite football character. I can't see him spending top dollar on Davenport. A 2nd tier FA feels like a better fit here especially with a deep draft of edge rushers.

I did something similar with a few trade backs but their player rankings are so far off from reality that's about all you can use it for.

Been watching the Senior Bowl updates as well. After this I'm about to go do a double trade back scenario draft. First trade with Houston, then trade with Carolina and see how many top 100 picks I can get.

How many 6th Rd picks does it take to find one Pro Bowl player? It's here and it's clear that the best chances of finding starter caliber players lies in the first 100 draftees. Beyond that you are getting more fringe players but of course there are always exceptions. Oddly UDFA have higher % of starters in the league than any of Rds 3-7. That may be in part due to some UDFA recovering from injuries affecting draft status, or character red flags. When you look at their % games started it's clearly Rd 1-3 where the bulk of NFL starters get chosen. Look at the % Reaching All-Pro status. 48% of All Pros come from Rd 1. 2nd Rd picks land at 14%. Here again UDFA out perform even 3rd Rd picks with 10.5% over 8.8%. (article is from 2015 but I don't think the NFL draft landscape has changed much since then) https://www.forbes.com/sites/prishe/2015/05/22/tracking-nfl-draft-efficiency-how-contingent-is-success-to-draft-position/?sh=6d01e3197495

It’s only day 2 but Senior bowl practices seem to be helping a few DTs move up. We’ll see how the top 100 looks next week. If we want, we can get two good edge rushers out of this draft between day 1 and day 2. WR depth for middle rounds is showing up as well.

I stand corrected, I forgot Harbaugh had visited them. Harbaugh turning down $100mil seems odd unless he wanted more control over the roster including what to do at QB.

...and a big fat F for hiring the wrong guy last year. This is a face-saving move but giving up more draft picks again is really limiting the future of this roster. Interesting that they went after Demeco Ryans first and Payton was the 2nd choice.

Gervon is perplexing because he has talent but is so slow off the snap he's usually the last man to move. Sometimes everyone else is already upright as he's just coming out of his stance. I don't know if that can be coached out of him but in the NFL giving up a first step like that is not going to end well especially on run downs.

https://saintswire.usatoday.com/2023/01/31/sean-payton-saints-broncos-trade-compensation/ According to Schefter, the Saints will receive the Broncos’ 2023 first-round pick (No. 30) and a 2024 second-round pick for Payton and New Orleans’ 2024 third-round selection

An athletic freak who could only muster 2.5 tackles for a loss, and 0.5 sacks in 14 games? In 3 seasons at Mich he's had a whopping 3 tackles for a loss, and that half sack is the grand total for his career. That's despite playing next to Hutchinson who was a top 10 pick. If that was the best he could do against college Olinemen how does that translate to more production against NFL Olinemen? I don't see much here against TCU. In fact his strength is his best asset and they easily moved him whenever he was doubled, even at the goal line. If you can't get pass rush at least hold your ground. My guess is he ends up as just a 2-down depth player in the NFL. There are also a ton of plays where he just stands around if the ball doesn't come right at him. I can't see how that style fits in with Eberflus' HITS ethos. I've said before there just doesn't seem to be much talent at DT in this draft. Hopefully we get some surprises out of the Senior Bowl, or maybe there are some lesser rated prospects who move up as learn more info. Even Jalen Carter and Bresee have significant questions surrounding their game. I'm all-in on using FA to fix DT this year. There are a lot more options in the top 100 at Edge. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5YwcDhTgQ-c

Possibly they could line them up in the same manner but he'll know Wash will use him the same way they have in the past. I don't know how he was utilized but if he wants to be a pure 3-tech on each down and get upfield he'll likely want to go elsewhere.

I can see Poles in a conference room with his staff.... We need a patsy or two to spread rumors about us trading Justin. Who in the media should we "leak" info to?

Maybe he should be? https://www.sbnation.com/2018/3/28/17132626/nfl-draft-2018-daron-payne-breakdown https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2769384-daron-payne-nfl-draft-2018-scouting-report-for-washington-redskins-pick "Da'Ron Payne is still developing as a pass-rusher but showed in the national title game that he can dominate interior linemen when allowed to penetrate. Payne has the strength, quickness and motor to attack when freed up but will also play smart team football."

Maybe these dates have been posted elsewhere but we are a little over a month out from knowing who is available in FA. Wash has less than $7mil in cap space available right now. Wentz will be gone and free up $26mil but do they try to pick up a vet like JimmyG or Carr, or even make a play for Lamar Jackson? I could see Baltimore letting Jackson go in a tag and trade scenario and then drafting Richardson. The DT franchise tag is forecasted to be $19mil. New coaches and GMs are in place. After the games tomorrow the rumor mill starts to slowly ramp up. I can't see Rivera being comfortable putting his future solely in the hands of Heinicke, who is a FA and would likely want something around $10mil if he's brought back to be a starter even on a 1yr deal. Keeping Payne, at least on a franchise tag, really limits their options. If they can't get a deal done then I expect they'll try to tag and trade him. This is where having a ton of cap space really benefits us as opposed to other teams. We will likely still have room to swing a deal late in FA whereas other teams with more limited budgets might have to spend for the better FAs early on rather than risk getting nothing. https://commanderswire.usatoday.com/2023/01/28/washington-commanders-head-coach-ron-rivera-new-oc-need-to-win-next-year/ https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10038729-nfl-offseason-schedule-2023-draft-free-agency-franchise-tag-dates-announced "Tuesday, February 21, marks the beginning of the franchise and transition tag window, which will end on Tuesday, March 7. The league year will begin on Wednesday, March 15, and that also marks the start of the free-agency signing period."

It's funny because there are pundits openly saying the Bears should draft a new QB and then trade Fields. Some fans are up in arms about that (think Swift) but for me any noise about us possibly taking a QB is ok as it can make other teams nervous about if there will be a QB left for them. In other words they really need to trade up and ideally remove any doubt about what the Bears might do out of the equation.

I'll take the HoF player. We can find starters in any draft or FA. HoF players should be the types who alter the game plan of the other team. That player could be lurking in 5-10 range like the CB Christian Gonzalez, DT Bresee, or Edge Tyree Wilson.

I want the player whose best years are ahead of him not behind him.

I don't want anyone on the team who would be happy getting benched. It might helpful having someone help him focus simply on himself, how to become as good as he can be and build self-confidence from that process, instead of worrying about or just expecting the end result (i.e. position title, money).

I think Whitehair is a decision made late in the offseason. Most likely we'll wait to see if a young player like Carter can take over, or possibly even a 2023 draft pick That could also involve a FA we bring in late (someone else's camp cut since we are first on the waiver wire).

BTW there is no reason a trade down inside the top 5 can't also include a 1st Rd pick in 2024.

It is early in the process so for now I prefer to trade down but stay in top 5. As more info comes in I'm warming up to trading back further. For example I'm warming up to the idea of drafting Tyree Wilson over Anderson. That idea involves a double trade down scenario. It would be interesting to repeat this poll after the combine.