AZ54

BTW there is no reason a trade down inside the top 5 can't also include a 1st Rd pick in 2024.

It is early in the process so for now I prefer to trade down but stay in top 5. As more info comes in I'm warming up to trading back further. For example I'm warming up to the idea of drafting Tyree Wilson over Anderson. That idea involves a double trade down scenario. It would be interesting to repeat this poll after the combine.

Good article and some good signs of maturity even if he might not be fully there yet. He acknowledges the need to improve his strength and conditioning to avoid injury. Hopefully he's bought into these coaches and puts in the work this offseason. https://sports.yahoo.com/teven-jenkins-found-peace-wake-154000188.html?src=rss

I'm with you here. Purdy's struggles in the redzone last week will only be magnified on the road. Hurts has the Oline to handle SF edge rushers, and the speed to make them pay if they can't. From what I've seen Hurts is also more composed in the pocket than Dak, at least the version of Dak we saw last week. Philly by 7. Cincy beats KC on the road. I don't care about Mahomes having a full practice this week there is no pass rush to avoid. His magic is largely dependent on his ability to buy time outside the pocket. That won't stop the KC offense, and he should be able to move around and even get outside the pocket a bit, but his clock is going to working a tick faster than he wants it to. He needs to avoid forcing things when plays breakdown.

A first pass at positional strength in the draft. I'm sure nuances could be debated but I doubt they are far off the collective on this. The good news for us is that Edge is 1, and DT 2. WR is 3rd but it's more depth in the middle 2nd/3rd Rd versus top talent. In 4th is OT with 13 prospects in the top 150. https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10062861-ranking-each-positional-group-in-the-2023-nfl-draft-from-worst-to-first

He rose above a lot of 1st Rd picks to get this recognition. https://www.chicagobears.com/news/braxton-jones-named-to-pfwa-all-rookie-team

I'm patiently waiting to see his 10yd split when he runs the forty. Von Miller is my comp just due to similarities in stature. However I think Anderson is more stout at the point of attack. In his highlights there are multiple examples of him shedding a block left or right to stop a run. For reference Nick Bosa 1.62, Joey Bosa 1.69. Von Miller 1.62. Nick has bulked up since his draft days so he's not there now but the difference between him and his brother on the field is noticeable.

That makes sense just based on position value.

He's definitely better than Levis right now. Is his ceiling higher? It'll be interesting to see how the various teams evaluate them.

I'm not that interested in a 5'10-5'11" QB. Maybe I'm wrong and Young measures in at 6' even but until then I'm skeptical. I've watched Kyler Murray struggle in the pocket quite often here in AZ and he has elite escapability that Young does not have, even though he is a very good athlete. I think Murray's arm is better than Young's too but Young has a better mind for the game. If I had to choose between these two QBs I'm taking Young. He could turn out to be the next Drew Brees but it also took Brees 4 seasons to become the HoF player we know. Fans don't even have that kind of patience with Fields. Levis interests me because his release and accuracy are pretty good but he can't read an entire field. Fields can already get to 2nd/3rd/4th reads albeit a bit too slow. Fields has elite escapability that Levis doesn't have. I see no reason to start over from scratch. Stroud does interest me. Watching how he handled the playoff game as his best targets went down and he still kept his team in the game. While he's considered a pocket QB he showed some pretty good mobility and throws while on the run. Only the coaches know the work ethic and what Fields did both in the offseason to improve his mechanics as well as in-season to improve play recognition. With that I'm on Poles side in that someone would have to clearly show they are hands down above Fields in talent. It might not work out but we will use all these extra picks if we can trade down to build the rest of the team. If in the end we have to add a QB we figure it out. I think even then Justin can reach middle ground among NFL QBs which would be enough to win much like the 49ers are doing right now with Brock Purdy.

Likely down but I don't know the history of playoff scores. I just think that's simply because a little more talent resides on the defensive side of the ball this year. For SF and Dallas it is their strength. Eagles have a good D but also played a flawed Giants offense. I wouldn't say it's because the D are more amped up than the O. If any NFL player isn't amped up for a playoff game they don't belong on the field. OTOH you have a rookie QB in SF who did nothing in the redzone. That doesn't explain Buffalo's 10pts and I don't think anyone is worried about facing the Bengals defense. It felt like they didn't even go down swinging. That loss will burn all offseason. Do players study and prepare better before a playoff game vs a game against the 3 win Bears? Of course they do.

Jerry has to be wondering if he has the right QB. There are a lot of championship caliber pieces on that roster.

Against an amped up playoff offense? In sports it is always risky to compare game to game because players all have good days and bad days. It is safe to state that Josh Allen and Dak Prescott were horrible in their respective games. You could look at the stat line and say it wasn't so bad for Allen but watching him on the field he looked lost, passes were off target (very unlike him), and had poor judgment at times throughout the game. It is also safe to say that good defenses won the day. I enjoyed watching Dallas and the 49ers defenses get after it.

No but he'll likely end up with a 1yr deal maybe even in Dallas. Elliot looks very pedestrian and at times afraid of contact.

The whole draft for Oline depends on who we sign in FA. If he goes big for a FA Center we're not drafting a center in Rd 2 (as I've been doing in many mocks). He can easily avoid that spot in the draft with a FA signing and keep Lucas Patrick as backup C/G. Same thing with RT, at least on day 1/2. This is an odd year because he has enough money to cover most of the big roster gaps with good FAs. DE talent is somewhat limited but there should be some good DTs, RTs, C, CB, and average DEs. WR is meh. Needs DT 2, DE 2, WR, CB, C, RT, LB. That 9 total needs. He has room to do something a year early with Mooney, Kmet, or Johnson if both sides want to, probably not likely this offseason. In any case those deals would likely not impact 2023 cap space much if at all. I'd guess he tries early extension done mid-season. We also need to leave room for rookies, maybe $10m since we draft high. Where it gets tricky is that right now on OTC we have 49 players rostered but there are several $1m deals there for practice squad players like Fountain, Webster, Harrison Hand, Terrell Lewis. Even further down the list is more or less the entire practice squad. With that, figure on top of the 9 starter "needs" we also have to fill in ~9 depth spots that are currently held by PS guys. So all-in we're looking to upgrade at least 18 roster spots between starters and depth. FWIW should a good opportunity arise to upgrade depth we can easily jettison players like Patrick $4m, AQM $4m, ESB $1m, or Vildor $2.7m. Figure any of those would just a be an even swap. Skipping the positions I'm thinking we add 2 top tier players ($20mil/yr) and 3 mid-tier ($10mil/yr). Center could be top tier but cost lands in the $10m/yr category. That's 5 players and $70mil to improve starters and leaves 3 starting level gaps. It also leaves $20mil to upgrade depth among 13 players ($10m needed for rookies). Some of the depth upgrade might come from existing players: Leatherwood, Ojemudia, Terrell Lewis all have good pedigree at some point in their careers. Others, like Jaylon Jones, showed enough that we should be able to count him among depth for next year. Starters: Can we get 3 starters out of a draft? Maybe but we should be able to count on 2. The problem is going into a draft for a "need" means we are bypassing BPA. I prefer to stay BPA which could mean we draft a CB again in Rd 1 if we trade down. At least 3 to 4 players on the 53, starters and depth, should come from the draft. If we trade down that number should climb toward 5-6 players. Summary: 18 roster spots to fill, 9 starters. 5 starters via FA, $70mil 2 starters via draft, likely 3 with trade down. Leaves 10 spots to fill on the 53: 7 depth players signed with $20mil, rookies took $10mil 3 more depth players need to be added via the draft.

I posted last night some of the QB options for AZ. I'd love to know if that situation played a part of Cunningham's decision. Did the owners want to keep Murray and build around him, and Cunningham said "I don't want that limitation"? Then the Cards go grab a guy from Tenn where they've been "getting by" with retread QBs for years.

After watching this I have lot more to consider with Jalen Carter. I watched both of these games live and couldn't remember him making many plays but after watching the film it is clear he impacted many plays in both games. In fact, on most of these plays he was the only Georgia Dline getting around his blocker. With little support it was often easy for QBs to move away from him. I realize these are also highlights but we need to consider that he played in these bowl games despite being a top draft pick and that shows he has a competitive spirit. He also had a tough knee injury early on and still worked his way back onto the field this season. He wasn't 100% and with the draft around the corner he could have played it safe and didn't. You'll see him tossing aside a 350lb OT, or bull rushing OGs 5 yards deep into the pocket to pressure the QB. That's impressive even if he didn't get on the stat sheet. There are multiple plays where his punch was almost lifted the OG off the ground and getting them back on their heels. This was against guys who will play in the NFL next year. On other plays it was just shear quickness to get around his blocker. Even when sandwiched between a double team he still has the power to break through (and on the triple team). His physical traits are rare and he is just 21 years old.

I might have to take back my thoughts about Arizona drafting a QB. I had never looked at the deal they gave Murray and it's insane but leaves them some ways out. Totally explains why an owner would be pissed off and fired everyone after a 4 win season. $100mil guaranteed but that is spread out with massive guarantees in different years (22, 24, 25). They could try to find a trade partner this offseason but his knee injury will complicate that since he won't be ready to play until after the start of the season. Cut him pre Jun 1st = $96mil dead money, -$80mil cap space. (won't happen) Cut post Jun 1st = $50mil dead money, -$34mil cap space. (could happen) Of course they would try to get some value in return. Trade pre Jun 1st = $59mil dead money, -$43mil cap space. This seems bad but for a team entering a complete rebuild they could easily follow the Poles' plan. Trade post Jun 1st: Dead cap = $13mil, cap savings = $3mil. Trades are very doable but the new team would have to be willing to pay Murray $35mil guaranteed in 2024. Trades in 2024 are even better. The money is not a big deal once spread out across the next few seasons but he'd still be close to a $40mil/yr QB. Would a team like Baltimore who has to re-enter negotiations with Lamar Jackson view Murray as a lower cost option if negotiations get too high? There's a drop off in talent. How about Tennessee with their run-first focus? In that situation I think Murray would be a big upgrade to their passing game. We have the cluster of desperate teams on the outside looking in at 7/8/9 in the draft: Raiders (he won't fit there), Falcons (Pace rehab special if his trade up offer fails), and Panthers. Further down the board we have the Jets, Wash, and Tampa (likely) who will look at QB options. It isn't as likely as I originally though but I still think there is a reasonable chance they draft a QB at #3 and let him compete with Murray for a year. If Murray lights it up in 2023 they could always keep him and trade the new QB. A bird in the hand...

You know I'm a former Cyclone and Purdy is from my town in AZ. I've been watching him for years. I'm not surprised at the way he's playing simply because there is so much talent on that offense and they are protecting him well. He does have limitations and those will show up sooner or later.

Lots of day 2 and day 3 types there. Which is great because those are also the players you need more exposure to, especially talented players who played against lower competition.

Their problem is not just this year it is next year too. They don't have a lot of room to maneuver, just $7mil at the moment. Technically that isn't even enough to tag him but cut Carson Wentz and that number goes up to $33mil. The first question they have to answer is what are they going to do at QB? They aren't in the running in the draft, they don't even have Heinicke signed. If they want to sign him he won't be expensive but he'll want some midling "starter" money which is likely at least $10mil and, in the age of good QBs making $50mil/yr, maybe $15mil/yr. That would also likely be a very short term deal, 1 or possibly 2 years, which makes it hard to shift cap hit to future years. As a FA Heinicke could easily be seen as the bridge QB on any number of teams looking for a short term solution. There goes half their cap space and they have to fit in a draft class ~$7mil? In 2022 they spent a 2nd Rd pick on Phidarian Mathis so they prepared to jettison Payne. Long term they also have to consider the two DEs who need new deals in 2024. How much money/cap space can they commit to the Dline? They have $100mil available in 2024 so plenty of room overall. A bad QB situation helps that but if they want to aim middle of the pack QB in Derek Carr? JimmyG? Add in the two DEs (if they want both long term) and then the other 29 FA players they have to sign and it gets tight quickly. QB - $20mil, Payne $20mil, figure DEs have combined cap hit of $20-30mil. That's $60mil of the 100 available. Leaving $40mil to sign 29 players. If they are thinking tag and trade....I don't think Payne is the type of player a team would give up a high pick for and then the big contract. I can't see Poles doing that. Nor is he enough to sweeten a deal for #1 overall. Him and McLauren could be part of a package along with lots of picks. I might even shuffle off Claypool in exchange just to keep some roster cap balance. Use their 16th pick to draft JSN. I'm not saying I want to do this just exploring the What If scenario.

If I were in position to be a day 1/2 draft pick I'd probably still come out early. Football careers can be short so striking while the iron is hot makes sense. Plus if you are young like Kmet, you could get two good contracts (2nd and 3rd contracts). Velus won't be seeing that.

Perfect!

Maybe because on my phone I only see the link, and it doesn’t open anything but on my computer it was an embedded video.