AZ54

The whole draft for Oline depends on who we sign in FA. If he goes big for a FA Center we're not drafting a center in Rd 2 (as I've been doing in many mocks). He can easily avoid that spot in the draft with a FA signing and keep Lucas Patrick as backup C/G. Same thing with RT, at least on day 1/2. This is an odd year because he has enough money to cover most of the big roster gaps with good FAs. DE talent is somewhat limited but there should be some good DTs, RTs, C, CB, and average DEs. WR is meh. Needs DT 2, DE 2, WR, CB, C, RT, LB. That 9 total needs. He has room to do something a year early with Mooney, Kmet, or Johnson if both sides want to, probably not likely this offseason. In any case those deals would likely not impact 2023 cap space much if at all. I'd guess he tries early extension done mid-season. We also need to leave room for rookies, maybe $10m since we draft high. Where it gets tricky is that right now on OTC we have 49 players rostered but there are several $1m deals there for practice squad players like Fountain, Webster, Harrison Hand, Terrell Lewis. Even further down the list is more or less the entire practice squad. With that, figure on top of the 9 starter "needs" we also have to fill in ~9 depth spots that are currently held by PS guys. So all-in we're looking to upgrade at least 18 roster spots between starters and depth. FWIW should a good opportunity arise to upgrade depth we can easily jettison players like Patrick $4m, AQM $4m, ESB $1m, or Vildor $2.7m. Figure any of those would just a be an even swap. Skipping the positions I'm thinking we add 2 top tier players ($20mil/yr) and 3 mid-tier ($10mil/yr). Center could be top tier but cost lands in the $10m/yr category. That's 5 players and $70mil to improve starters and leaves 3 starting level gaps. It also leaves $20mil to upgrade depth among 13 players ($10m needed for rookies). Some of the depth upgrade might come from existing players: Leatherwood, Ojemudia, Terrell Lewis all have good pedigree at some point in their careers. Others, like Jaylon Jones, showed enough that we should be able to count him among depth for next year. Starters: Can we get 3 starters out of a draft? Maybe but we should be able to count on 2. The problem is going into a draft for a "need" means we are bypassing BPA. I prefer to stay BPA which could mean we draft a CB again in Rd 1 if we trade down. At least 3 to 4 players on the 53, starters and depth, should come from the draft. If we trade down that number should climb toward 5-6 players. Summary: 18 roster spots to fill, 9 starters. 5 starters via FA, $70mil 2 starters via draft, likely 3 with trade down. Leaves 10 spots to fill on the 53: 7 depth players signed with $20mil, rookies took $10mil 3 more depth players need to be added via the draft.

I posted last night some of the QB options for AZ. I'd love to know if that situation played a part of Cunningham's decision. Did the owners want to keep Murray and build around him, and Cunningham said "I don't want that limitation"? Then the Cards go grab a guy from Tenn where they've been "getting by" with retread QBs for years.

After watching this I have lot more to consider with Jalen Carter. I watched both of these games live and couldn't remember him making many plays but after watching the film it is clear he impacted many plays in both games. In fact, on most of these plays he was the only Georgia Dline getting around his blocker. With little support it was often easy for QBs to move away from him. I realize these are also highlights but we need to consider that he played in these bowl games despite being a top draft pick and that shows he has a competitive spirit. He also had a tough knee injury early on and still worked his way back onto the field this season. He wasn't 100% and with the draft around the corner he could have played it safe and didn't. You'll see him tossing aside a 350lb OT, or bull rushing OGs 5 yards deep into the pocket to pressure the QB. That's impressive even if he didn't get on the stat sheet. There are multiple plays where his punch was almost lifted the OG off the ground and getting them back on their heels. This was against guys who will play in the NFL next year. On other plays it was just shear quickness to get around his blocker. Even when sandwiched between a double team he still has the power to break through (and on the triple team). His physical traits are rare and he is just 21 years old.

I might have to take back my thoughts about Arizona drafting a QB. I had never looked at the deal they gave Murray and it's insane but leaves them some ways out. Totally explains why an owner would be pissed off and fired everyone after a 4 win season. $100mil guaranteed but that is spread out with massive guarantees in different years (22, 24, 25). They could try to find a trade partner this offseason but his knee injury will complicate that since he won't be ready to play until after the start of the season. Cut him pre Jun 1st = $96mil dead money, -$80mil cap space. (won't happen) Cut post Jun 1st = $50mil dead money, -$34mil cap space. (could happen) Of course they would try to get some value in return. Trade pre Jun 1st = $59mil dead money, -$43mil cap space. This seems bad but for a team entering a complete rebuild they could easily follow the Poles' plan. Trade post Jun 1st: Dead cap = $13mil, cap savings = $3mil. Trades are very doable but the new team would have to be willing to pay Murray $35mil guaranteed in 2024. Trades in 2024 are even better. The money is not a big deal once spread out across the next few seasons but he'd still be close to a $40mil/yr QB. Would a team like Baltimore who has to re-enter negotiations with Lamar Jackson view Murray as a lower cost option if negotiations get too high? There's a drop off in talent. How about Tennessee with their run-first focus? In that situation I think Murray would be a big upgrade to their passing game. We have the cluster of desperate teams on the outside looking in at 7/8/9 in the draft: Raiders (he won't fit there), Falcons (Pace rehab special if his trade up offer fails), and Panthers. Further down the board we have the Jets, Wash, and Tampa (likely) who will look at QB options. It isn't as likely as I originally though but I still think there is a reasonable chance they draft a QB at #3 and let him compete with Murray for a year. If Murray lights it up in 2023 they could always keep him and trade the new QB. A bird in the hand...

You know I'm a former Cyclone and Purdy is from my town in AZ. I've been watching him for years. I'm not surprised at the way he's playing simply because there is so much talent on that offense and they are protecting him well. He does have limitations and those will show up sooner or later.

Lots of day 2 and day 3 types there. Which is great because those are also the players you need more exposure to, especially talented players who played against lower competition.

Their problem is not just this year it is next year too. They don't have a lot of room to maneuver, just $7mil at the moment. Technically that isn't even enough to tag him but cut Carson Wentz and that number goes up to $33mil. The first question they have to answer is what are they going to do at QB? They aren't in the running in the draft, they don't even have Heinicke signed. If they want to sign him he won't be expensive but he'll want some midling "starter" money which is likely at least $10mil and, in the age of good QBs making $50mil/yr, maybe $15mil/yr. That would also likely be a very short term deal, 1 or possibly 2 years, which makes it hard to shift cap hit to future years. As a FA Heinicke could easily be seen as the bridge QB on any number of teams looking for a short term solution. There goes half their cap space and they have to fit in a draft class ~$7mil? In 2022 they spent a 2nd Rd pick on Phidarian Mathis so they prepared to jettison Payne. Long term they also have to consider the two DEs who need new deals in 2024. How much money/cap space can they commit to the Dline? They have $100mil available in 2024 so plenty of room overall. A bad QB situation helps that but if they want to aim middle of the pack QB in Derek Carr? JimmyG? Add in the two DEs (if they want both long term) and then the other 29 FA players they have to sign and it gets tight quickly. QB - $20mil, Payne $20mil, figure DEs have combined cap hit of $20-30mil. That's $60mil of the 100 available. Leaving $40mil to sign 29 players. If they are thinking tag and trade....I don't think Payne is the type of player a team would give up a high pick for and then the big contract. I can't see Poles doing that. Nor is he enough to sweeten a deal for #1 overall. Him and McLauren could be part of a package along with lots of picks. I might even shuffle off Claypool in exchange just to keep some roster cap balance. Use their 16th pick to draft JSN. I'm not saying I want to do this just exploring the What If scenario.

If I were in position to be a day 1/2 draft pick I'd probably still come out early. Football careers can be short so striking while the iron is hot makes sense. Plus if you are young like Kmet, you could get two good contracts (2nd and 3rd contracts). Velus won't be seeing that.

Perfect!

Maybe because on my phone I only see the link, and it doesn’t open anything but on my computer it was an embedded video.

In that sense I think he's a great fit. I just don't think he should be around the football side much. He actually didn't say anything other than what Poles has said about building the team for long term success. Either those comments were pure coincidence and that is what Warren would have said on his own, or he's just echoing what Poles is doing and saying. Since Warren's background is all on the executive side I hope he doesn't have to hire a new GM/HC soon. There's nothing in his Big Ten bio about success on the football field, just success building the business side. Which is fine, we really need that and I think Poles will know what to do with more revenue. https://bigten.org/staff.aspx?staff=76 "During his 21 seasons in the NFL, and 15 with the Vikings, Mr. Warren directed the team’s focus on creating departmental synergy and collaboration, increasing financial profitability for the franchise, improving communication, developing leadership initiatives, implementing a platform focusing on a positive community impact through the new Minnesota Vikings Foundation, launching a women’s initiative program, creating an elevated fan experience, and building a world-class franchise focused on the tenets of hard work, ethics, financial profitability, community service, and a “best-in-class” mentality. "

Poles turned down the E/W Shrine Bowl coaching offer and wins big time with this.

Nah it worked for me. Fond memories.

3-tech - quick and get in the gap between the LG and LT fast enough to disrupt the play. (technically 3-tech applies to either side of the front). That means if the LG wants to pull, follow him fast enough that the C or LT can't slide over and block you and you are in the backfield staring at the RB. If the LT pulls toward the RT then disrupt his path. Doing that enables a LB or DE on the other (strong) side of the play to make the tackle. Of course if it's a routine pass then get back there and sack the QB. In Eberflus/Lovie/Tampa 2 is primarily a one-gap D so just get in your gap and own it. If you can't control that gap, or can't get inside the LOS enough to disrupt the play, then you end up getting washed down the line, or pushed backwards, which is pretty much what you saw all year long. Further by not disrupting things early in the play you enable blockers to get to the 2nd level and block our LBs. What was Akiem Hicks? Pure power. Instead of knifing in between Oline he just simply stood up and powered the man in front of him backwards. At his best he could get guys off balance enough that enabled him to cut around them, or in some cases he just simply took his blocker right back into the QB. Because he could control his blocker like that he was great at getting off a block to either side to make a tackle. He was also smart and studied his opponents. He knew them well enough to tip him off what was going to happen on many plays. Change of direction wasn't his thing so heading off in the right direction at the snap helped him a lot.

I'll just post the byline of the video but if you can find this highlight on Youtube. I don't know much about Pittman but when this hits a "highlights" search I wonder what Eberflus knows about his football character. Matt Ryan Yells “He’s F****** Trash” After Michael Pittman Didn’t Go To The Ball https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/colts-wr-michael-pittman-jr-211438318.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly9zZWFyY2guYnJhdmUuY29tLw&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAADUvEwDawdPJUpyjHwEGB6wyBAfCwoMlcQRRLs2q_hteD7j2QAla87_efPBr4Vcn6nqjxbOGvF5cR0EbvL1kPlt4x8_loBGhMFGtTQ_LMr8nwxDhdxffPPW6ipx3hn80cIgUuj2ufF9iTPtJMtcEM7H6iCGZk2fDOGMsq9T1gy32 https://heavy.com/sports/indianapolis-colts/michael-pittman-mnf-pittsburgh-steelers/ "I let my emotions get the better of me for most of that game," Pittman Jr. said Wednesday. "That's what happens when you get emotional. You're not really playing like yourself. You don't have the same type of focus.

This is worth considering among the trade down packages we're likely to see. I think in our own way those who have been scouting players already see the issues at the top of the draft. This might make getting a 2024 1st Rd pick, or known good players in exchange even more of a priority for Poles. On the other hand the balance of the article states that most teams like the depth from 10 down into the 3rd Rd. It could also mean that Poles won't be so fixated on staying in the top 4/5 and might be more willing to drop back to 7/8/9 and get more of those value picks. https://www.walterfootball.com/nflhotpress/article/Teams-Feel-2023-NFL-Draft-Lacks-Elite-Talent "This year, teams feel the 2023 NFL Draft lacks elite talent overall. Sources from seven different NFL teams told WalterFootball.com the only player who had received an elite grade was Texas running back Bijan Robinson. "Of these players that you think you could say is among the best at their position in the league in their first couple of seasons, you would only say Bijan," said an AFC scouting director. Robinson is viewed across the scouting community as being a complete package with size, speed, athleticism, rare instincts, rare receiving ability and excellent character. The consensus top-two prospects for the 2023 NFL Draft have been Alabama edge rusher Will Anderson and Georgia defensive tackle Jalen Carter. All seven team sources, however, said their organizations do not have an elite grade on either of them. As previously noted in the Hot Press, Anderson carries skill-set concerns, while teams don't like parts of Carter's make up namely they question his work ethic and if he really loves football. Multiple sources also question why Carter did not produce more when he was so much more talented than the blockers he was facing."

Saint Omni is sitting on a beach in the Bahamas and is definitely not worried about tackle stats.

I wasn't impressed with him based on the press conference. I didn't see much except for a bunch of platitudes when it came to football. IMO he's a schmoozer but we need a good schmoozer to put together the right people for a great stadium. He needs to go out and get that done, give Poles the money he needs to sign FAs, give the fans a great stadium experience, but stay out of the football operations.

We should give them a break, it's not like that was the deepest draft in a decade. They also have some vets ahead of guys like Asamoah. I really liked Lewis Cine and hope he gets back on the field in full health.

That hurts so much I can’t stop laughing.

Thank you as always and yes... family first.

Kirk Cousins throwing for 3 yards on 4th and 8 to a guy who was covered was epic (failure). Add the Vikings to teams looking for a QB. They are stuck for another year with Cousins and they have -$19mil in cap space, so at best this offseason they find a retread vet to compete. Even that seems unlikely as those guys usually can command at least $10mil in one year deal. Watching Ed Donatell's defense with numerous ex-Bears on the field struggle against a mediocre Giants offense was equally entertaining. Their entire roster has peeked with several key players over 30 yr old. The trade for TJ Hockenson and giving up their 2nd Rd pick this year looks horrendous now. Their GM went all-in thinking this was his year instead of knowing his roster shortcomings and age and planning for the future.

I watched the Illinois-Mich game and Chase Brown really impressed me. I kept thinking he doesn't look like someone who should be hard to stop yet he kept proving me, and the Michigan defense wrong. He's a good football player who, at least what I saw on the field, exudes the character Eberflus wants. Chris Rodriguez looks ok but is more N-S style runner. Kenny McIntosh looks very good, versatile and runs with patience and then decisiveness and burst. I could see him being a good fit in our scheme. I'd love watching Deuce Vaughn every weekend. He makes at least one defender look silly every game. He doesn't have long speed but his burst, vision, and ability to cut at speed enable him to eat up angles early in a play. He can catch too so he's going to be a good 3rd down back for some fortunate team, just don't ask him to block. The Darren Sproles comparison is obvious.

Rumors are already picking up the Colts are putting together a can’t-refuse trade package for the 1st pick and that will likely include players. Everyone assumes Pittman will be included. if we’re going to get someone with one year left on their rookie contract I’m thinking I’d prefer Jonathan Taylor. He had a couple ankle injuries this year and it appears he might need surgery. I’m purely guessing but that might be the procedure Harry had at the beginning of the season. A backfield of Taylor, Herbert, and then just keep Darrynton Evans and Ebner. Montgomery walks and we have more FA budget. Of course Taylor would need a new deal in 2024 but right now his valuation at OTC is around $8 mil. Maybe that’s a bit low but would you rather have Monty at $7 mil per year or Taylor at $10mil? Or neither and just keep drafting RBs.

That’s where I’m at and that fits into a trade down scenario.