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AZ54

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Everything posted by AZ54

  1. AZ54

    UDFAs

    I'm not much on them either, I prefer entire game film if I can find it. I just assume this is the best of the best they've ever done and what will that look like on an NFL field. If your college highlight film is but 1min 30s and includes just 10 plays that isn't much of a resume for a supposed NFL prospect who should be dominating at the small college ranks. I didn't even finish watching but 3 or 4 plays on some of these WR UDFAs because it's so obvious they aren't getting separation at their level. I also go by what I don't see with the assumption that if it wasn't there in college it likely won't be there in the NFL. When you get to Sanborn's highlights there are many except just a few are of him in coverage. In some of those he's making an INT but he's out of position trailing the receiver and benefits from a bad throw. In the NFL that's a negative play. You don't see much of him trailing a RB across the middle and defending a pass (at least I don't remember it). As a SLB in this defense where he mostly has to play moving forward with occasional TE or zone coverage responsibilities he should be ok. After all he did make an open field tackle on Justin Fields as he scrambled outside the pocket.
  2. AZ54

    Starting Roster

    I agree with the 3 positions of need. I'd say adding someone to both Oline and Dline are the most likely changes we'll see. It' hard to say for which Oline position at this point. SLB might well be on the roster right now. Among the WR options I'd prefer Ty Hilton but I'm not sure they'll do anything there and might just be content to share snaps out there among St. Brown and occasionally Jones. How good of a run blocker is St. Brown? We have a good sense of what Poles wanted to do on Oline because of the FAs he pursued and then the drafted players. While we know they are not content with the WR group I don't have a good feel for what they'd be willing to do to help it from here, if anything. I've been wondering what is Poles' next decision point on this. We've had the rookie mini-camp and the Oline prospects looked good (meaning they just fit the zone scheme and can run around in shorts). OTA offseason workouts: May 16-17, May 19, May 23-24, May 26, June 6-7, June 9. Mandatory minicamp: June 14-16. Or does he wait until the pads come on in training camp. I would say they'll have some idea if they have to do something at WR from the OTAs. Dline and Oline don't know if he waits until camp. There is also the possibility that someone who really fits what we need gets cut post Jun 1st after other teams see their rookies in OTAs..
  3. That statement was in relation to his usage on special teams. i agree he was effective out of the slot and we should have just kept him there instead of adding all the snaps at RB. I agree, I doubt Jones ever sees 75 receptions in a season but with a 17 game season 4 per game is 68 on a season.
  4. AZ54

    UDFAs

    Jaylon Jones caught my eye as did Landon Lenoir, Kevin Shaa, and of course Chase Allen and Jack Sanborn. Jaylon Jones might be a player worth converting to safety as it sounds like he's not the best transitioning (flipping his hips) but with the action in front of him he's pretty good. We did that with DHC and it worked out over the years. Landon Lenoir looks good in highlights (don't we all?) but has a so-so draft report and athletically is average. As a smaller guy he needs to be quicker in/out of his cuts than it appears he is to play as slot WR and he's not good enough to play outside. Kevin Shaa is somewhat different maybe a bit more speed but has the same route running limitations. Don't see anything out of either. Chase Allen can be that 3rd or 4th TE but he's not special in any way. Horsted is better running in the open field. If you want TDs throw to Horsted, if you want first downs it's Allen. Yet Allen might be the better blocker. That Cal TE fits in the same mold. Sanborn has the most potential to make the 53 IMO.
  5. AZ54

    UDFAs

    Conveniently they are saving me the time by putting some videos of each UDFA here: https://bearswire.usatoday.com/lists/chicago-bears-2022-nfl-draft-undrafted-rookies-highlights/
  6. We have to accept Jones for what he is and not what we were hoping for (#1 or starting X WR). He is a jack of all trades and he's never going to be our starting X WR even if he can line up there on occasion. For perspective on value let's compare against other unique players: Cordarrelle Patterson. drafted 29th overall, Devin Hester 57th overall. Velus Jones 71st overall, and Tarik Cohen 119th overall. Let's compare subjectively: Hester: I'm not saying he'll be what Hester was on returns but he should be good to very good, and like Hester he can do both KR and PR. Hester also offered very little as a WR/RB, nor did he play well as a DB, nor did he have special teams coverage value. So in the end despite teams' best efforts he was just a returner, HoF type, and I'm glad he played for us. Cordarrelle Patterson: Velus compares very favorably to what Patterson brings to special teams both in returns and coverage. That's very good and this is the reason, plus the little he adds on offense, Patterson keeps getting contracts in the $5mil/yr range. NFL teams value having a game day talent who can add to both sides of special teams and on offense. Patterson was ok in spot duty as a RB on sweeps (please Nagy-him up the middle near the goal line) but on multiple teams he was never very good as a WR. In fact his hands are so bad teams didn't really worry about him after he was 10yds downfield. Tarik Cohen: Tarik added value as occasional slot WR/RB but he wasn't particularly good at RB no matter how many times Nagy ran him up the middle. He was ok in the slot and offered the occasional deep route which proved challenging for defenses. He was primarily just a PR on specials but did some KR and he offered nothing on special teams coverage. I personally think he lost the heart for the game and thus was overpaid by Pace but he too earned around $5mil/yr for his talents. At 119 the Bears got good value out of Cohen on his first contract. Velus: He's was #1 KR in the SEC two years in a row. He was #1 PR yards, and yd/return in SEC in 2021 (only year he did PRs). Receptions he was 10th in the SEC. Receiving yards he was 9th in the SEC. https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/velus-jones-jr-1.html. Add in that he is a very good gunner on kick coverage although I don't know where you find those stats, or how you quantify it. What I see is a guy who was drafted to be our 3/4th WR and I don't think the expectation is higher than that because the team is happy to have his special teams ability on game day rosters, and those things take energy too. Effectively that can free up a game day roster spot so Eberflus can add a Dline player to keep his rotation plans. It might even make it possible to keep a guy like Robinson active so he can get a few game day reps to help his development. I'm not sure how you put draft value on that but the coaches seem be happy to have it. On top of that, compared to Hester, Patterson, or even Cohen, Velus offers much more as a receiver. Even if he always has a limited route tree he's a legit threat at all 3 levels of the field, and RAC ability demands attention from a defense. He's better at RAC than Cohen was on bubble screens or jet sweeps (not hard to be better than someone who ran out of bounds most of the time). He might compare to Hester here in RAC although the styles are different. He can handle routes over the middle which Cohen nor Hester could do (size limitations) and he can get deep behind a CB or S and catch the ball (unlike Patterson and Hester never offered much either as a deep threat, Cohen did). Let's do a further comparison against the player I thought we'd be targeting at 39: Christian Watson who went 34th overall. FWIW Watson was a 5th yr Senior and just about to turn 23 so about 20mo younger than Velus. 2021 Velus: 63 rec, 807yds, 13.0 ypc, 7 rec TD, 15 yds rushing, 1 TD special teams, 628 KR yds, 272 PR yds 2021 Watson: 43 rec, 801 yds, 18.6 ypc, 7 rec TD, 114 yds rushing, KR TD = 0, 227 KR yds, 0 PR yds I agree Watson has better potential to develop into a starting X WR, however, given the fact Velus has put up his stats against SEC competition I think it's reasonable to expect what he does will translate well to the NFL, certainly at least as well as Watson who has a huge step up in competition. Yet we got that value at 71 vs. 34. Long term I expect Watson to outperform Jones as a WR but even if he does we'll still have the special teams value and a gunner who can force a fair catch on a punt. That alone can save you 5-10yds of field position several times a game. That might keep a team out of FG range once or twice a game. What's the draft value in that?
  7. When Cliff was running the contract negotiations and salary cap I always liked the fact we had our draft picks signed early. This is just 7 of 11 and i realize rookie salaries are tightly bracketed but this is still a good start. IIRC we also had better FA contracts that were more front-loaded and tended to give us more flexibility later in the deal. That's a better place to be while we're still building the roster to compete for the Superbowl. https://www.chicagobears.com/news/roster-moves-bears-sign-7-of-11-draft-picks-2022
  8. Future coach (somewhere) and probably sooner than later.
  9. Velus is what he is. 3rd/4th WR with a lot of special teams value on returns and coverage. That makes it easier to keep a 3rd Rd WR on the game day roster and in retrospect given the state of our roster we should have seen that need in our evaluations of the day 2 WRs, or even day 3. You either get a WR ready to play in Week 1 like Olave or else you are carrying that rookie on game day behind the veterans but who is playing special teams? Which means other difficult decisions on game day at DB/RB/LB. Eberflus has options now. LM: Special teams sometimes seems like an underappreciated aspect of the game. Why was it important for you to draft so many players who excelled on special teams in college? RP: "You want to win all three phases, so you can't ignore that. I think the other piece a lot of people don't understand is even when you're a backup player, if you don't have special teams [value], it's really hard to make a team. So, for those guys that have special teams ability and love playing on special teams and can affect the game on special teams, you know that they have a place on your roster and they're going to be active on game day.
  10. I think that was just smart business to take advantage of a rare draft where 7th Rd picks had 6th or maybe even 5th Rd grades. Using one of those picks on a punter I'm not so sure about but Ja'Tyre Carter and Elijah Hicks both seem like they'll become good backup players and maybe more in time. If you want to feel good about a day 3 pick go look at Marcus Davenport out of UTSA who was taken 14th overall in 2018: https://www.nfl.com/prospects/marcus-davenport/32004441-5600-4893-5029-0862a4795062 and then Dominique Robinson who we got in the 5th Rd: https://www.nfl.com/prospects/dominique-robinson/3200524f-4240-4567-d940-a5c388777ffe Both small school prospects who were more athletes than edge rushers. Any other year and Robinson is gone in the 3rd Rd if not sooner because with less Edge prospects teams might have spent more time on him pre-draft like happened with Davenport. Now Davenport hasn't lived up to his draft position but that doesn't change the relative value of the picks.
  11. I don’t know how a talented player gets buried on the depth chart of a team with the worst record. There’s a reason 13 Bears remain FAs.
  12. Going into the draft my goal was to end up with 2 starters for Week 1 and a 3rd player who can get in a rotation. I think we did that and perhaps more. I didn't want to go defense early but the way the draft fell we had two options: Reach for a player or take what was on the menu. Poles took what was on the menu and landed two very good DBs, both with high floors that immediately upgrade a critical need position. At least Poles did not trade up into the 1st Rd and take someone like Cole Strange or Tyler Smith. Both were talents I liked at the right spot in the draft, both need time to develop. Velus Jones... seems like a reach here with better WR talent on the board. It's hard to evaluate the plus aspects of having him on the game day roster considering his ability as a gunner, returner, and then whatever he can add as a receiver. Among the Day 3 Oline I'm optimistic we have at least one starter. I think Zach Thomas is early favorite. However, seeing how quickly Braxton Jones adjusted to better talent at the Senior Bowl I wouldn't be surprised to see him getting some 1st team reps in training camp. Line him up against Quinn and see what he's got. Then we see what happens from there. Kramer has much better feet for the reach blocks required in zone blocking schemes than Mustipher does. Both have strength issues but I'm thinking we keep the guy who can at least get to the right spot. I'm not sure Mustipher makes the 53. Love the Robinson pick. We just have to be patient but he's hungry and talented and he's in a good position group with other hard working players. Ebner. I'm tired of watching highlights of him singlehandedly defeating the Cyclones. I'm not sure what he'll be as a RB, but he's good enough to at least contribute some carries to compliment to what he does best. His receiving ability is what I love, even out of the slot. Most teams don't have someone like Roquan to cover a RB out of the backfield. Remembering the stats that were posted on the board the Packers had Adams as top in receptions followed by the RBs. IMO the Ebner pick indicates Getsy is likely to do the same.
  13. I don't know how well Monty fits the wide zone style we're moving to. I think Herbert does and maybe Ebner but when his scouting reports say he has strong tendency to always go outside on plays that's not good. Ebner with his hands and route running ability fits in great as 3rd down RB and that might be where he starts out along with some returns.
  14. What is with all the affection for Master Teague? This guy has no jump cut, he's stiff and struggles to turn upfield when forced to move laterally, and he needs an alley to get up to speed. Once he's going he's good. His best season at OSU where he should be able to run up stats on much lesser opponents in the Big 10 schedule, was 789 yds. His ypc is good but he wasn't getting many snaps, partly due to his injury history. Montgomery has been durable in college and the NFL even when he was the primary focus on defenses. On top of that MasterT has a whopping 11 receptions in his career and his draft profile says he's not a receiving threat. Your calling Montgomery a bum, and IIRC a "plodder" but he's outproduced MasterT college stats in every NFL season behind a much less talented Oline (proportionally to what OSU has in the college ranks) and with much less talented QBs although both played with Fields. The FB role might be ideal for him but even there I prefer having a FB who can at least catch on occasion. If he gets his burst back his one-cut style might fit well into the outside zone as a change of pace back. If he is to be a RB I'd ask him to drop down to 210lbs so he could get some quickness and agility back, or stay bulked up and be our FB. Having a FB with his long speed is a really nice compliment in the backfield. Once he's up to speed DBs want nothing to do with him. https://www.landgrantholyland.com/2022/3/17/22982362/ohio-state-football-draft-profile-master-teague-work-ethic-versatility-find-place-in-nfl NFL Traits Teague is a throwback type of running back, built out of 1990s lab of football players. His size and style are not the traits NFL teams are looking for in their number one running back. Where Teague adds value is his experience as a special team player and his ability to come in as a change of pace back. The NFL has become a league that relies on smaller more athletic personnel, this means having a bigger, more explosive type back should be a major priority. Teague has great vision, he has decent burst at the line of scrimmage, and his physical makeup gives him the ability to play as a modern-day fullback.
  15. AZ54

    Draft Day 2

    They clearly valued his versatility and most importantly he's good enough as as receiver to win on deep routes. That was always the problem with CPat, nobody cared about him running routes especially deep routes because he couldn't catch. Cohen had similar versatility but was smaller, quicker in his cuts, but not as fast deep so defenses just tried to get to him early. Play calling had something to do with that too. Cohen should have been developed as a slot WR instead of the hybrid RB/WR Nagy put him into but that's water under the bridge. Velus will be the most versatile multi-threat player we've had on offense in the recent years. He'll likely have a limited route tree and plays. I'm sure teams will test him early to see what he's got, maybe leave him in single coverage while they focus on Mooney. It'll be interesting to see how quickly he and Fields can get in sync, and if Getsy knows how and when to use him.
  16. AZ54

    UDFAs

    That he does and he approaches it with a team first attitude. I really like that pick for depth. If Eddie falters again between him and DHC there is going to be some good competition to be next in line.
  17. I'm optimistic but for 2023. At this point given the challenges of the roster overhaul both from a talent and new scheme fit perspective he's done well to set us up for 2023. That is largely a factor on how well he traded back and what he did with all those extra picks. Oline is in better shape at least in terms of depth for this new scheme and I feel confident at least one and possibly two of these picks will turn into starters. Hopefully it's Braxton at LT. WR is still missing another go-to piece. I think guys like Pringle and Velus are good complimentary guys you want, maybe Dazz can get into that category. I'm ok if we go with an army of 2's to spread the field. The defense has totally changed in terms of talent in the back 7 which was the gap I was thinking we'd carry in 2022. We have several young guys at the edge with very good long term potential. A stud 3-tech is the glaring piece we're missing. I think we'll be competitive in a lot of games but not against playoff caliber teams. The scheme changes on both sides of the ball will take time for the players to learn, not to mention we're going to rely on several rookies this year. He's avoided over-committing on long contracts to FAs so far. Even the contract to Ogunjobi was just 3yr. The first big contracts he completes will be Mooney and Roquan. Next year they'll be able to evaluate the roster and then use all that cap space and a full draft to help close remaining gaps. The one caveat is that Fields needs to take a big step up this year. Do that and I'll be very optimistic about what we can put on the field in 2023. With the new coaches the odds this happens have gone up.
  18. I'm not as optimistic as you are, my comments are bolded above. Oline are both a work in progress.
  19. AZ54

    UDFAs

    Jean Delance plays so far over his feet he'll be tossed around like a rag doll in the NFL. I like Sanborn he was one of my late options to fill the SLB role. Derick Bush has some promising aspects to his game: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EaYhNIzWtn0 Cyrus Holder struggles to get separation from LBs.. won't go anywhere in the NFL. Same for Luke Little. I'm not sure why we're wasting time on these guys. I'm not sure why I'm wasting my time on them other than to understand what Poles is trying to do. At this point with so many meh players out of small schools I feel like he's just throwing as many darts as possible hoping to hit on one or two. Chase Allen out of Iowa State is more of a move TE since I've watched him quite a bit. Nothing special athletically but like Sanborn he's someone worth bringing in the building as a possible depth player.
  20. AZ54

    Draft Day 3

    Overall I really like what Poles did on Day 3. Braxton Jones floor should be as our backup swing OT but he has starter traits and may develop into our LT of the future. I feel the same about Zach Thomas for the IOL. Ja'Tyre Carter has the raw skills but is on a longer timeline. Just watching his Senior Bowl clips he looks like he needs to add strength and improve his hands but he moves well in space. In his defense he hasn't played inside much so Senior Bowl work was a big transition for him coming from a smaller school. Probably a practice squad candidate this year. Ebner's best value is as a returner where he has really good vision to setup his blocks. His running style is similar to Herbert probably with a bit more burst out of the cuts. He has very good hands and I can see him carving out a role as a 3rd down back/returner early in his career. I love the potential of Robinson on the edge. Listening to his press conference he's already been working on adding pass rush moves so he isn't waiting around for an NFL team to get better. Hearing that he's been modeling his game off what Leonard Floyd does wasn't very inspirational. I'm not sure what to make of the C Kramer. Elijah Hicks should end up as a good backup safety for us/special teams player. He's a little undersized but his approach to the game and turnovers is what we want to see. He's not an elite athlete and although he is new to playing safety he is instinctive and gets after it when he sees it. Not a single high safety for the NFL but he'll be ok in a zone. I wouldn't be surprised to see him make some big plays in preseason against backups on offense who are still trying to figure things out. As far as drafting a punter: This kid is not Mega Punt but he has a good leg and can get enough hang time on his punts so the coverage is in place to force a fair catch. He has some different style kicks too. If he's kicking from around mid-field he'll drop the ball with the point down and it will have a ton of hang time and drop deep into the red zone with his half his coverage team there to down it. Most punters just try to aim so it goes out of bounds inside the 20yd line. Not him. How consistently he can do that remains to be seen but that skill might be why we drafted him. It's interesting to note that the mega punt kid can get your team out of a hole and flip the field but this kid can put the other team in one inside the 10yd line. I think four punters got drafted this year. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EYxVq_xa734
  21. AZ54

    Draft Day 3

    I forgot about Snowden. IIRC he was a little too skinny coming out but hopefully he's added some bulk and is ready to compete. It'll be interesting to watch them develop over the season but we could have a good DE rotation by the end of the season. If Robinson is good enough to make the 53 he'll likely struggle to be on the game day roster.
  22. AZ54

    Draft Day 3

    In his press conference he compared himself to Pollard. Poles likes his ability to run in the wide-zone scheme.
  23. AZ54

    Mock Drafts

    I got nothing right. Hopefully Poles did.
  24. AZ54

    Draft Day 3

    That's still a lot of potential for this late in the draft. Braxton Jones had a 5.97 score and so Poles valued the potential LT over the DE prospect. Here''s the converted WR at the Senior Bowl practices: There's a lot to work with here.
  25. AZ54

    Draft Day 3

    Seems like a guy who will end up on the practice squad. He's got the ability to play in the NFL and his versatility as a returned is a benefit.
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