jason

Regarding the OL, the sack statistic is completely unreliable as a single measure of success. So much more goes into it, and you know it. For instance, suppose an LG doesn't give up a sack but every pass play is a three-step drop and a quick pass to the right? Does that say whether or not the OG got blown up but the DT just didn't have time to get to the QB? Of course it doesn't. There are countless scenarios that make OL success a difficult measurement. Four sacks in 60+ offensive possessions versus the Seahawks. That's not terrible. But the OL definitely sucked last game, and that underscores the problem with using simply sacks as a measurement of the OL. That's why I attempted play-by-play analysis last game. It's also why I challenge anyone else to do so on a play-by-play basis. There appears to be a lot of revisionist history in regards to their performance at the end of the game. Also, you're ignoring where I said I could completely understand, while disagreeing, that the WR position is as big a need as OL. Both are big needs, but I just happen to believe a superior OL would maximize WR potential because it would give the QB tons of time to throw (see: Hanie to Bell last week). The initial response was entirely because DBDB pretended the OL was "not that bad," which is utterly ridiculous. Just straight up wrong. I don't mind the OL/WR disagreement. Actually, I kind of enjoy it. But anyone acting like the Bears OL isn't bad is either lying to themself or not watching the games.

Merry Christmas and Happy New Year to the Bears nation!

That's absurd. I don't see how you guys can continue to peddle this nonsense with a straight face. Webb is bad. Edwin Williams is bad. Garza is average. Spencer is bad. Louis is below average. When and if Carimi and Chris Williams come back, the OL goes from bad to below average. 8th most negative rushing plays to the left side. 1st most negative rushing plays to the right side. 3rd most negative rushing plays overall. 5th most sacks. 8th most QB hits. Countless hurries Pressure in the backfield every other play. Tons of ridiculous, undisciplined penalties. Virtually zero depth. If that's "not bad" then I don't know what the hell bad is. I can buy someone thinking the WR position is a bigger priority than the OL, even though I disagree, but quit with this nonsense about the OL being anything other than bad. Because that's what they are. They are bad.

It's only because I'm sick of watching the Bears fail because of the same reason year after year after year, only to see little done to address it. Meanwhile, the D gets focus every single year. As for what everyone wants, you're probably right. But I think there are many who think WR is a need far above OL, rather than the other way around. Further, I still contend upgrading the OL could do more for the overall offense, particularly the WRs, than the other way around. FWIW - I recall the Carimi as a RT talk, but don't remember a thing about knee problems.

You're right about him being projected by most to be a RT (I was trying to make the best scenario possible), but what's confusing to me is: 1. Carimi is the best OL talent the Bears have 2. The Bears OL is not good 3. Webb is probably the worst starter on the OL 4. Webb is playing at LT 5. A weak LT is one of the most terrifying ideas for an already shaken, and apparently injury-prone QB 6. Virtually nobody wants to move Carimi to LT 7. The top level LTs in the NFL right now are almost exclusively drafted in the first round, and the ones who aren't are almost all from the second round (Jason Peters excluded) 8. The WR talent pool this year is deep (5-6 1st round talents), and the LT talent pool (3 LTs by my count are 1st rounders) this year is shallow Yet so many want to draft a WR in the first round. It just doesn't add up.

I also wish they'd just throw Enderle to the wolves and see what he has. Putting in a stop-gap only makes sense if the gap gets stopped and there isn't enough water pouring through to make it worthwhile. Unfortunately for the Bears, the water is gushing through, there is no chance to stop the leak, and McCown won't lead the team to a miraculous wildcard.

I got to thinking about the draft today, and what the team needs. I figured, the starters have to be determined, don't they? Obvious starters at their current positions are Cutler and Forte. After that, is there one?! The mere fact the question is feasible is serious cause for concern. FWIW, this is how I hope it plays out: LT - Gabe Carimi (comes back from injury and proves he is a stud) LG - Carl Nicks (a massive FA addition for the Bears) C - Roberto Garza (has to do it for one more year) RG - Lance Louis (gets rewarded for effort, moved back to where he is better suited and showed more promise) RT - Chris Williams (finally stays healthy - remember that he was doing well before having to cover for Pace's ass on the left side) WR1 - Vincent Jackson (JA is allegedly going to spend, right?) WR2 - 2nd round draft choice (plenty available - whoever is most ready) WR3 - Bennett (surest hands on the team) WR4 - Knox (assuming he recovers) TE - Davis (could have a breakout year with this supporting cast) FB - Clutts (I like the kid) Backup QB - Kyle Orton (seriously) Backup RB - Barber (just for the short distances and GL carries) That offense leads the Bears to the Super Bowl. Period. The OL would give Jay a ton of time to throw, open holes for Forte (particularly on the left), and the WR combo would be very good.

If that's the case, then I hope it's Tyson Clabo at RT and/or Nicks at LG.

But we had one serious injury when it most mattered. Either way it ends the season.

RD1 - That would pose a great dilemma, but the Bears staff would probably get Coples. Which would piss off 99% of the fans. RD2 - Yuck. Let's hope it plays out better than that. RD3a - Zeitler RD3b - McNutt

Yes, I think that's an even bigger reason to go OL earlier. Hell, guys like McNutt and Toon will be there in the 2nd round. That WR talent is better than the 2nd round OL talent that will be available. But I could understand if Floyd or Jeffery is there (Blackmon will not be) and the Bears wanted to jump on it.

100% Disagree. Just look at the one play Hanie had loads of time this past week: Intermediate TD to Bell. Even a subpar, potentially shouldn't be in the NFL QB like Hanie can throw a TD in the NFL if you give him enough time. And that was to a backup RB improvising. Give someone like Cutler that time and he's be surgical. My preference, in order, for the first three rounds: OT, WR, OG, FS.

Yet somehow many other teams are turning nobodies and lesser knowns into viable offensive weapons. Why is that? Some of the time it's because the QB is just ridiculous. Some of the times it's because the surrounding talent is too deep to fail. And some of the times, it's just a matter of giving a decent QB all day to throw behind a stud OL. Regardless of FA, I think the Bears absolutely have to go LT/WR or WR/LT in the first two rounds. Depending on how the draft goes, I could see Floyd available when the Bears pick...and maybe Jeffery. No way Blackmon is there. On the other hand, I could also see Riley Reiff (OT, Iowa) slipping to the Bears. If it's between Reiff or Floyd/Jeffery, I wouldn't be really upset either way, but it would make more sense to go LT/WR than WR/LT because there just isn't a lot of 2nd round LT talent available. My ideal draft goes: 1 - Riley Reiff, LT, Iowa 2 - Nick Toon, WR, Wisconsin - or - Marvin McNutt, WR, Iowa 3a - BPA FS 3b - Kevin Zeitler, G, Wisconsin - or - Senio Kelemete, G, Washington

WTF - Why do the football gods hate the Bears so much? Other teams have injuries as well, but I'm sick of seeing the people who do well have injuries. Notice that none of the really bad players seem to be injured. I would gladly put Omiyale on IR in place of anyone else.

That sounds a lot like a JA problem and not a "drafting OL"-problem. Nonetheless, I hope even a blind squirrel finds a nut this year, and the when the others come back healthy it's a potential juggernaut OL.

Agreed. I've already started looking at mock drafts. There appears to be a ton of options for the Bears at OG, OT, and WR. It's just too bad there aren't a ton of FS standouts.

If Hanie takes a three step drop and there is pressure in his face, it's not difficult to objectively evaluate the OL. No matter who is back there it's not difficult to objectively evaluate the OL. It's two very simple questions to start things off: Did the OL open holes for the running game? Did the OL protect the QB to the extent of his drop for that play? The former is much easier to judge, but the latter is not impossible. Arguing whether the play should have been called is something entirely different. Did the OL, or did they not, give the QB enough time to drop back, set his back foot, make a quick read, and throw the ball? And, BTW, the OL definitely had many other moments in which they sucked...it wasn't just the end. To truly recognize and evaluate this you'd have to actually chart plays.

The play-by-play breakdown says otherwise. The reason I did this was so I could avoid the post-game analysis and overall perception problem we all suffer from as fans. We think, "Hell, Hanie didn't get hit in the first half!" and chalk that up as a good half. The problem is, that's horribly incomplete and doesn't tell the entire story. It's entirely possible that on each and every play - not saying that's true this game - one of the members of the OL got blown up. For instance, imagine Webb gets destroyed on a play (not difficult to imagine) but there is a RB screen his way. The play could be a huge success, but that doesn't mean Webb did well, and by extension that makes the overall OL performance grade out poorly. What's more, it could be simply the reality of what happened in this game: The OL did much better pass blocking in the first half, but sucked at run blocking; yet, in the second half they sort of reversed roles. What stands out, however, is the pass blocking...which is where a lot of the false impressions originate. Like I said in the original thread, I would love for someone else to do this and see what they come up with. I'd be willing to compare notes on a play by play basis. I think the end result will be surprising. I couldn't believe how many times I wrote, "Defensive player in the backfield;" it happened so often I started abbreviating it as DPIB. And this happened on more than one positive play (i.e. quick pass or RB juke in the backfield). Until real analysis is attempted, all we have is hindsight and very poor, in terms of play-by-play analysis, memory.

So, if the Bears are well under the salary cap this year, why wouldn't/couldn't they just do the following: -Sign Forte, and make a large chunk of the contract go towards this year's cap -Have multiple years of a cheaper Forte Seems like this, if permissable, would kill two birds with one stone.

I say you cut him before he's officially a FA, just to send a message to the rest of the league about how bad he sucks.

Heh, heh, heh...welcome aboard!

Revisiting this idea, I would love a draft that was entirely OL, WR, and FS. I think the other positions are much more solid. Well, it would be nice to attempt to get a competent backup QB as well. I know it will never happen, but I think it would actually be a good idea. Get 2 or 3 OLinemen who have talent and potential, get one explosive WR, and get one FS who understands how to read, react, and take appropriate angles towards the ball.

Agreed. FU Green Bay.

I immediately scrolled to your OL ranking because of my play-by-play analysis in another thread (check it out!). Pleasantly surprised to see a D. Although, I could see someone argue for a C-. Good job Noots.

Because of a previous discussion on this board, I thought about analyzing only the OL during an entire game. It took a second to train my eyes to only watch the OL, and even then it was difficult a few times, but the focus was there 99.9% of the time. I realize everything is subjective in this regard (i.e. scheme, blitzes, pickup responsibilities, etc.) but I tried to focus on what the jobs of the OLinemen were. For instance, in the 17th offensive play in the first half Bell had a great rush pickup; the fact that the defensive player got in without being sniffed is a negative on the OL. I realize this is not always accurate because in some alignments the OL is not responsible for the blitz pickup, but whenever possible I tried to determine that based upon OLinemen who double-teamed a DT instead of getting the free rusher or OLinemen who simply had nobody to block. Furthermore, for passing downs I determined that the number of steps the QB dropped determined the OL grade, and if the QB planted his foot for that specific down and there was pressure, it was judged negatively. I realize this could be in the "Bears shouldn't be calling 7-step drop plays"-territory, but we can only assume the OL knows the drop and should act/protect accordingly. The measurements: Run/Direction, Pass/#-step Drop. Overall OL performance was judged, not individual players. So if 4 guys kick ass on one play, and Webb gets bulldozed, then that's a negative OL grade. From there it was either a Good play, OK play, Bad play, or NA. Since only three measurements were available, 3 was given to each Good, 2 for OK, 1 for Bad. That means 2 would roughly be an average performance. 1st HALF: OVERALL: Bad 18, OK 4, Good 13, NA 2 for a total score of 1.86. RUNS: Bad 12, OK 2, Good 4 for a total score of 1.47. PASSES: Bad 6, OK 2, Good 9, NA 2 for a total score of 2.31. 2nd HALF: OVERALL: Bad 11, OK 10, Good 5 for a total score of 1.77. RUNS: Bad 2, OK 5, Good 2 for a total score of 2.00. PASSES: Bad 9, OK 5, Good 3 for a total score of 1.75. TOTAL GAME: OVERALL: Bad 29, OK 14, Good 18, NA 2 for a total score of 1.76. RUNS: Bad 14, OK 7, Good 6 for a total score of 1.64. PASSES: Bad 15, OK 7, Good 12, NA 2 for a total score of 1.94. ANALYSIS & INTERPRETATION 1 - The OL performed better on passing downs than running downs. This was a slight surprise. 2 - Hanie had several inconsistent drops that indicate a lack of cohesion with the WRs as well as a possible misunderstanding of the offense. This could be causing some of the problems. 3 - The OL performed significantly worse on five-step drops (10 Bad/3 OK/7 Good; 1.85), than they did on seven-step drops (1/0/5; 2.67). This was a major surprise. 4 - Apparently the Bears just suck at running right, or at the very least someone almost always screws up when the run to the right is called. Run Middle (2/1/2; 2.00), Run Right (8/1/1; 1.30), Run Left (4/5/3; 1.92) I welcome anyone else to try this and objectively judge the plays/players. I was surprised they did as well as they did, even though it was pretty clear they were below average overall, run blocking, and pass blocking. It would be just a little more tolerable, however, if there were a lot more OK plays, instead of the Hot/Cold nature of their performance.