defiantgiant

More on Smiley: apparently the Dolphins aren't happy with his run-blocking. Miami has some seriously nasty run-blocking o-linemen (Jake Long, Vernon Carey, and now John Jerry,) so it may be that Smiley's just not up to their standards. Not having watched a lot of Dolphins games, I can't say for sure if he'd be an upgrade for the Bears' run blocking, but it's worth noting that the two teams who were reportedly interested in him (the Colts and Seahawks) haven't exactly been lighting the world on fire in the run game.

Yeah, I saw that Tice said he'd try him there. It's an interesting idea, but I hope they're not relying on it. It seems like moving career tackles to the interior line is kind of a crapshoot. Sometimes it works out well, like with Robert Gallery, but a lot of them really seem to struggle with the change in technique. I'd love it if Shaffer can give the Bears an upgrade at LG, but I hope they're getting Beekman or Louis some reps with the second team so they have a fallback plan.

Hate's a strong word, but I think I got angrier at Rex Grossman than any other Bear I can remember. I can deal with players like Mark Bradley who get tons of hype and turn out to be not so good...that just happens sometimes. I could even deal with Cedric Benson being a big disappointment and then resurrecting his career somewhere else. Again, that just happens sometimes - look at what Thomas Jones did in Arizona, and then he came to Chicago and lit it up. But Grossman would play like a stud one game and then lose the next game for us singlehandedly. I've never seen a talented player just crap the bed as bad as Grossman did, when you knew what he was capable of sometimes. That drove me nuts. And as far as players that I loved: I'm going to go with Devin Hester. When the Bears' offense was a bad joke and the defense was starting to fall off the cliff, we still had something to hang our hat on thanks to Hester. I remember announcers back in 2007 making fun of the latest three-and-out or bemoaning how the defense wasn't the same after the Super Bowl, but when the return team came on the field, Hester would shut them up. He seriously gave me something to feel proud about as a Bears fan at a time when the rest of the team was struggling badly. It made sense to move him to offense once teams wouldn't kick to him any more, and I like what he's done as a receiver, but it was pretty special having the best return man in history.

Yeah, he kind of did the same thing with the o-line: he had some good stuff to say about Beekman possibly taking over at LG, but without explicitly getting a dig in at Omiyale. Very diplomatic.

...he'll be in charge of both pro personnel and college scouting. The college scouts will report directly to him, as will the AD of pro personnel. Basically, he's going to do both Bobby DePaul's job and Greg Gabriel's. He'll report directly to Angelo. I can't say I like this move. Ruskell hasn't whiffed in the draft nearly as often as Angelo, but he's also utterly failed to bring in impact players since he left Tampa Bay. He drafted exactly ONE Pro Bowler in Seattle - Lofa Tatupu. Even Angelo's done better than that. Maybe the whole will be better than the sum of the parts, but I can't see this move helping the Bears' front office learn how to draft.

When he was with the Lions? If you had him in fantasy back in 2006, you must have cleaned up.

That's definitely the thing that jumps out at me about the article. All the teams doing really well in Fox-Tox have a reliable big-play WR: Andre Johnson, Reggie Wayne, Vincent Jackson, Marques Colston, Sidney Rice, DeSean Jackson, Greg Jennings, Miles Austin...every team that put up a lot of explosive plays on offense had a bona fide #1 receiver and a good QB. The Bears have the QB, but one of our receivers has to step up.

So apparently Brian Billick has invented a new stat, and it actually looks pretty smart. He calls it the "Fox-Tox Rating" (which is sort of a dumb name, I admit) and it's basically a composite of turnovers and what he calls "explosive" plays (runs over 12 yards or passes over 20.) It's basically the differential in turnovers (turnovers created on defense minus turnovers committed on offense) taken together with the differential in big plays (big plays on offense minus big plays allowed on defense.) It's apparently a good predictor of success: a good Fox-Tox rating correlates very well with winning and making the playoffs, and a bad one correlates well with losing. If you buy Fox-Tox, teams that fail in one area (stopping big plays/turnovers or creating big plays/turnovers) can still have success if they're good at the other three. Teams like the Saints, who struggle to stop big plays on defense, can still do well if they create turnovers on defense, and their offense both makes big plays and limits turnovers. I'm kind of interested to see how the Bears' moves this offseason will pan out in terms of their differentials. Here's what I see: 1) Turnovers on Defense: Adding Peppers should help pass pressure, adding Chris Harris and (hopefully) Major Wright should help the defense force more fumbles and maybe get more picks. 2) Turnovers on Offense: The big one. Cutler's got to get it together and stop throwing so many interceptions. 3) Big Plays on Defense: Having Urlacher healthy and a decent free safety in Wright (again, hopefully) should help us stop getting gashed on third-and-long. 4) Big Plays on Offense: If you believe the article, teams with good QBs and good receiving options can create big pass plays, even with a subpar pass-blocking o-line (see Colts, Saints, Cowboys last season.) It made me think about our offense last year: when the line was struggling, Turner went even more ball-control in the passing game (all those short slants and bubble screens that got like 5 yards.) That might have actually made things worse - he turned an offense that couldn't protect the ball into one that couldn't protect the ball OR get any yards. Martz, on the other hand, clearly wants to throw the ball deep, which could definitely help the offense (provided that Aromashodu, Knox, and Hester can step up.) What do you guys think?

Well, and the coaches always say that the last receiver on the depth chart has to be able to play special teams...that's why Rashied Davis has stuck around for so long. Since Furrey can play safety, I have to imagine he could play on coverage teams, which would probably make him a candidate for Davis' roster spot. I'm totally fine with replacing Davis with an equivalent player who happens to know Martz's offense.

He's a center, though. He's never played guard that I'm aware of, and he'd be pretty undersized to move there. Are you thinking we'd move on from Kreutz this offseason?

He seemed like he was in pretty steep decline the past couple of years. I don't see the point in bringing him in, unless it's to replace Davis on special teams and help teach Martz's system to the young guys. I definitely don't want him seeing the field as a receiver: the guy basically had one good year, and that was in 2006. And they threw to him almost 150 times that season. I'm fine with the move if he's just going to cover kicks and help Hester/Aromashodu/Knox learn to run routes consistently.

Yeah, Danieal Manning was different, but he also fits in a category of Bears picks that we see over and over again: trait players. It seems like almost every draft the Bears pick a guy for being an outstanding athlete, even if he comes from a lower level of competition, doesn't have a true position, or both. It's fine to gamble on those kinds of players late in the draft (like Johnny Knox or Mark Anderson) but spending high picks on hit-or-miss guys is way too risky. Sometimes you'll hit and get Devin Hester, but a lot of the time you'll miss and get Danieal Manning or Jarron Gilbert. And you can't really make up for those early misses by taking football-smart guys with sub-par athleticism later in the draft, like Angelo did with Steltz and Payne. That's why I really like the Wright pick. I'm hoping that he can kind of be the best of both worlds: maybe he doesn't have stellar athletic ability like Manning, but the guy's not limited like Steltz/Payne either, and he's supposed to be very football smart, which is more than you can say for Manning. I'm really hoping that Angelo's learned from his mistakes, but I don't think we'll know unless he's around for the draft next year, so we can see what he does on Day 1.

That article just says they're considering releasing him. They haven't done it yet. I don't really know anything about Nesbit, but as far as Andrews goes, for right now I think we have to put him and Arron Sears in the same category. They both have a ton of ability, but honestly, who knows if either one will ever play again? Andrews' back has kept him out of 30 games in the past two seasons, and he's rumored to be dealing with pretty severe depression (as is Sears) on top of that. Maybe he'd benefit mentally from a change of scenery, but he didn't seem to benefit from playing with his brother and his old college linemate in Philly. The Eagles had some pretty serious o-line needs, and Andrews couldn't help them out...I don't see him helping the Bears unless he makes a pretty dramatic turnaround.

I hear what you're saying, but the Dolphins' o-line is much, MUCH better than the Bears' - it's easy to see how the weak link on one of the league's best lines could still be an upgrade for one of the shakiest. I mean, the Dolphins are clearly shooting for the playoffs this season, what with the Marshall trade, and getting past the Pats and Jets is going to be tough. All the things I've read on Smiley have said that he's a quality starter with some injury problems, but that the Dolphins think John Jerry could be the truth. For me, the injury thing is a bigger concern than Smiley's ability: I think if he can stay healthy, he could help Chicago out.

On a serious note, I wonder if Lovie's finally realized that he needs personnel who aren't strictly limited to a Tampa-2 scheme. Peppers and Wootton are bigger DEs who can play the run, Chris Harris is more of an in-the-box safety, Major Wright is a Cover-1 centerfielder, Josh Moore (if he turns out to be anything) is a corner who's best in man coverage...maybe we're seeing the Bears finally start tailoring their roster to the blitzing 4-3 that they run about 60% of the time, rather than to the Tampa-2 scheme that they use less and less each season.

I like PFF as a resource. I totally agree that their rankings are a little wonky for o-linemen, but they're also the only place where I've found individual o-line stats like sacks/hits/pressures allowed. While the "what a player was supposed to be doing" metrics are pretty subjective, I trust them to look at a play and objectively determine who let the rusher through. I tend to take their subjective grades with a (pretty big) grain of salt, but they're a good resource for other stuff.

He didn't suck in college, though. The only knock on him that I've seen is that he'll probably have to switch positions. But that's cool, because Chicago doesn't need another LT.

Yeah, here's one thing: our old running game involved a fair amount of pulling and second-level blocking from the guards and center. Kreutz and Garza, in particular, were used on pulls and traps a lot. If Tice continues to ask the o-linemen to do a lot of that, Louis' mobility could help him win the job.

Smiley would be a nice, low-cost pickup if he gets cut. He might not play a full season (he's been dinged up over the past two seasons) but he'd be an upgrade when he was in there, and I'd be fine with Beekman as a spot fill-in if Smiley misses a couple of weeks. He's pretty good in pass protection (allowed 4 sacks, 7 hits, 15 pressures in 2008-2009 combined,) and it's not like Pennington and Henne help their o-line out the way Cutler does, mobility-wise. Plus, there's no arguing that Miami has a nasty run-blocking line, and Smiley was a part of that, too. For whatever reason, tons of teams seem to be jettisoning decent vets this offseason...I hope Miami does the same with Smiley.

I hope so. He's good at both, and he's valuable in that role. I'm a little worried because he hasn't signed his tender yet, and the team might be thinking they can afford to let him walk. I mean, they could have Graham/Jennings compete for the nickel job and use Knox to return kicks. They could get by without Manning, but it'd hurt the depth at corner and take time away from Knox developing as a receiver.

God, I hope not. I'm hoping that, between a high draft pick who's proved he can't play the position and a less-high draft pick who's a promising rookie, they'll choose the rookie. Also, they moved Manning to SS (which was already a crowded house) earlier this offseason, despite having a total vacuum at FS. That tells me that they feel pretty certain he can't be a free safety. I'm less worried that they'll move Manning back to free and more worried that they'll leave Manning on the strong side and try to get Harris to play free. That wouldn't be good either. But really, if Major Wright shows any kind of promise whatsoever, I have to think it'll be Wright at FS, Harris at SS, and Manning either playing the nickel/returning kicks or dealt to somebody else.

Yeah, plus Williams was stuck behind the one guy in our linebacker corps who never misses time. And even if Briggs did go down, Tinoisamoa can play the Will and Sam spots about equally. We've still got pretty solid depth at linebacker, and Harris is immediately the best safety on the roster.

One other thing: Angelo's 2005 draft class isn't a total loss any more. When Orton went to Denver, he was the last guy from the 05 draft on the roster. Now we've got one of those picks back...I like that.

Well, I'd agree with you there, but trading for a guy based on potential entails risk. Williams looked good coming out of college and has played well in very, very limited playing time, but he's not the sure thing that Chris Harris is. The Bears know what they're getting in this trade, but the Panthers don't, at least not entirely. They could come out with a better, younger player, or they might find out that Williams doesn't live up to his potential once he gets a starting job. If the former happens, people will say that Carolina won the trade; if the latter happens they'll say Chicago won, but nobody has the benefit of hindsight at the time. I think their value evens out when you look at it from that perspective: the Panthers are going the risk/reward route, while the Bears are getting the safer asset, a guy with a lower ceiling and a higher floor.

Right, it was his 5.5 second 40. But who cares about an o-lineman's 40 time? Especially a guard. I don't know...a lot of analysts were really surprised that he fell out of the draft. And it's not like it would cost anything to sign him on the cheap and bring him into camp to compete.