defiantgiant

I think the easiest way to measure the upgrade for the Lions is to project the new guys' numbers over the same number of targets as the guys they're replacing. Since it sounds like the Lions will be going with a lot of 2-TE sets and using Scheffler mainly to replace a slot receiver, I put Burleson against Bryant and Scheffler against Northcutt. I'm thinking 100 targets is a reasonable figure for a #2 WR, and 70 targets for a #3 receiving option. So it's Burleson/Bryant over 100 targets and Scheffler/Northcutt over 70. Check it out: Nate Burleson - 100 targets, 61 catches for 786 yards Bryant Johnson - 100 targets, 41 catches for 485 yards Tony Scheffler - 70 targets, 43 catches for 577 yards Dennis Northcutt - 70 targets, 38 catches for 387 yards ...so if you're the Lions and you're wondering if these two upgrade your passing game, it's a no-brainer. Stafford can throw the same number of passes to the non-Calvin-Johnson receivers, and you get 25 extra completions for almost 500 extra yards if he's throwing to Burleson/Scheffler instead of Johnson/Northcutt. Stafford's completion percentage on those throws jumps from 46.5% to 61.1%, and his YPA goes from 5.13 to 8.01. Is it as big a difference as if they'd gotten Boldin or Santonio Holmes or somebody? Of course not, but if the same 170 plays can get you 104 completions for 1363 yards instead of 79 for 872, there's no way to say that's not a big upgrade.

Dude, nfo, Burleson might not be a big impact player, but it's ridiculous to say that he's "barely above" Bryant Johnson and Dennis Northcutt. I might be overvaluing him and Scheffler a little, but I think you're underestimating just how awful the Lions' other receivers are. Bryant Johnson got 88 targets compared to Burleson's 103, but Burleson nearly doubled Bryant Johnson's catches/yards last season (63-812 compared to 36-426.) Their targets don't account for the difference, it's their talent. If you adjust for targets, and use catch percentage, yards per catch, and yards per target instead, you'll see what I mean. Burleson had a 61.1% catch rate, 12.9 yards per catch, and the average throw to him (yards-per-target) gained 7.88 yards. Bryant Johnson? He's WAY less reliable than Burleson and does less after the catch, too: he had a 40.9% catch rate and 11.8 yards per catch, meaning that a throw to him averaged all of 4.84 yards. *I should point out that a three-yard difference in YPT is MASSIVE. YPT is pretty tightly grouped if the players are even roughly comparable (compare Burleson's 7.88 to Anquan Boldin's 8.03, when Boldin is clearly a significantly better player.) It takes a major disparity between the players to add up to a multiple-yard difference in YPT. It's even worse with Scheffler and Northcutt: Scheffler actually outproduced Northcutt while getting significantly fewer targets. Scheffler: 50 targets, 31 receptions (62%) for 416 yards (13.4 YPC). Northcutt: 62 targets, 34 catches (54.8%) for 346 yards (10.2 YPC). The average throw to Scheffler gained 8.32 yards, compared to 5.58 for Northcutt. Just like Johnson/Burleson, Northcutt's worse than Scheffler, by a significant margin, in every category you can use to measure a receiver.

Oh yeah, I'm not saying they'll win a lot of games or that Burleson or Scheffler will put up big numbers. But we'll have to cover Burleson and Scheffler normally, unlike Bryant Johnson/Dennis Northcutt/whatever scrubs they were fielding last season. That makes me really worried about what Johnson could do. He's a legit #1 receiver even when he's triple-covered...what's he going to do against a more balanced defense? Also, it's a little misleading to say that they've had "receiving weapons for some time." I mean, Detroit has, but Matt Stafford and Scott Linehan haven't. Last season, when Linehan and Stafford came in, is the only real point of reference for the offense this season. And last season they were working with exactly one receiving weapon, plus a bunch of guys who would have been #4 or #5 options for any other team in the league. This year they've got three legit passing targets, even if two of them are only league-average players. Again, I'm not saying it'll get them to 8-8 or anything, but I think Calvin Johnson's going to shred some defenses this year.

That's a really nasty four-game stretch to close out the season. The Bears could potentially have nine wins (maybe 10 if they beat the Packers at Soldier Field) coming into that Week 14 game against the Pats, but I don't see a win in any of those last four. Pats, Jets, and away games against the Vikings and Packers...you couldn't ask for a tougher stretch of games to close out the season. Here's how I see the season breaking down: Week 1: Lions - WIN Schwartz's team isn't the old Lions, but they still only have one good starter in the secondary, and their o-line is suspect. Week 2: @Cowboys - LOSS High-pressure defense will test the Bears' o-line, and the running game and Miles Austin will make the offense hard to slow down. Week 3: Packers - WIN This is maybe the most contentious pick in my list. The Packers' offense is dynamite, and if they take a tackle high in the draft, it could get even better. Their defense was solid last season and there's no reason to think it'll take a step backward. If the Bears win here, it'll be because they stole one at home. I just have a gut feeling they're going to split with the Packers. Week 4: @Giants - WIN The Giants' defense fell apart last season, and while their young receivers look okay, Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw are starting to show some seams. I think the Bears take this one with a big day from Cutler. Week 5: @Panthers - WIN The Panthers are rebuilding. They've got an elite running back tandem and a great run-blocking o-line, but basically nothing else. It won't be enough to win them the game. Week 6: Seahawks - WIN The Seahawks were a wreck last season, and I don't think Carroll can turn them around fast enough. They've got big problems at tackle, scrubs at running back, no #1 wideout, and holes all over the defense (except at linebacker.) Without the advantage of playing in the loudest stadium in the NFL, I don't see them even keeping it close. Week 7: Redskins - WIN This will be interesting. McNabb-to-Moss looks good on paper, and Washington's defense should be solid (they were a ridiculously underrated unit last season) but it'll all hinge on what they can do with the o-line and the run game. That line will take a lot of work to fix, and I don't see it being even an average unit. Peppers could have a field day, and I think the Bears win a pretty low-scoring contest here. Week 8: BYE Week 9: @Bills (Toronto) - WIN Big, big win. Even more than the Seahawks, Skins, or Panthers, the Bills have huge roster holes. No quarterback, no receiving threat other than Lee Evans, holes all over both lines. This one isn't close. Week 10: Vikings - WIN If the line is improved enough to keep Cutler upright, I like Martz's passing game against the Vikings' secondary. Last time around, Cutler honest-to-god torched the Vikings through the air and the defense did just enough to bring it out. With improvements on both sides of the ball, I think they can do it again. Week 11: @Dolphins - LOSS Unless Brandon Marshall's hurt or suspended, this game is a big problem. The Dolphins' run game is great and now they can throw the ball, too. Mike Nolan is working with arguably better talent in Miami than he had in Denver, and he turned that defense into a VERY stout unit. They were a tough team last year without Brandon Marshall or Karlos Dansby. This year they could be nasty. Week 12: Eagles - WIN I'm just not buying Kevin Kolb. More than that, the guys who were supposed to solidify the o-line (Jason Peters and Shawn Andrews) have both been busts, and they've have taken a few steps backward on defense with the losses of Dawkins and Sheldon Brown. I see Philly dropping this game. Week 13: @Lions - WIN Honestly, the Lions could surprise me here. Schwartz may have gotten the defense more-or-less solidified at this point, and their passing game could be in high gear if Johnson/Burleson/Scheffler are all healthy. Those are a couple of big ifs, though. I'm still betting Bears. Week 14: Patriots - LOSS I don't want to see Tillman/Bowman trying to stop Moss/Welker. And you know Belichick will outcoach Lovie by a mile. Week 15: @Vikings - LOSS As strongly as I feel that the Bears will win the first one with the Vikes, I think this is a loss. Maybe AP has a big game, maybe Favre and Sidney Rice do, but the Vikings just have too much talent for the Bears to sweep. Week 16: Jets - LOSS Their defense was elite last season, and it could be even better this year if Cromartie returns to form. Honestly, I think their run game probably gets worse without Jones, but adding Santonio Holmes to Braylon and Cotchery makes their passing attack legit. Week 17: @Packers - LOSS A lot of people would probably disagree with me about the Bears beating the Packers at Soldier Field, to say nothing of beating them at Lambeau. This one's a loss, barring an injury to Rodgers or something huge like that. OVERALL: 10-6

The black and orange one was way cooler. Why didn't they stick with that?

The one thing I'm worried about is our secondary. Covering Calvin Johnson was nearly impossible even when our guys didn't have anybody else to worry about. I mean, he was averaging 7 catches for 109 yards against our guys last year, and now we're going to have to pull some coverage off of him to handle Burleson and Scheffler. I doubt their pass defense will be adequate (barring a fantastic draft) and I don't see anybody in their run game who scares me, but that passing game could be legit.

Martz says that Omiyale's moving to right tackle, that Olsen can contribute in his system (and says there's a problem with the system if Olsen doesn't fit,) and that Cutler's exceeded his expectations so far. My two cents: 1. Excellent move as far as Omiyale goes. The guy started to look not-totally-awful at guard toward the end of the season, but he's clearly a tackle and he's much more of a pass-protector than a run-blocker. Beekman's an upgrade from him at LG. If Tice can coach Omiyale up on the switch to the right side (I'm pretty sure he played on the left in Carolina) then he could be a decent option at RT. Especially with Manumaleuna lining up next to him. 2. It sure sounds like Martz was hinting that he'll change the system to fit Olsen. He still said (as basically everybody has said) that he's going to ask Olsen to get better at blocking in the run game, but he definitely made it sound like he's not going to keep a talented player on the bench for scheme reasons. 3. I remember Kurt Warner saying something about how much of a stickler Martz was for fundamentals, but I didn't realize how serious it was. I figured he'd clean up Cutler's footwork (which got pretty sloppy last season) and that would help his accuracy, but I didn't think he was going to take it all the way back to square one and start reworking how the guy takes a snap. Cutler made some downright beautiful throws (and, admittedly, some pretty bad ones) last season while basically winging it off his back foot...I'm excited to see what he can do with consistent footwork and mechanics.

There are basically two schools of thought on how you use your predraft visits. Some teams use them to bring in early-round guys who they've already seen at a Pro Day and the Combine, and other teams use them to get a look at guys who didn't have a Pro Day or a Combine invite. The Bears do the latter, so they can try to turn up surprise contributors in the late rounds.

Sims worked out as a safety during the draft, but I don't know if he could actually move there. In any case, weak-side linebacker is a way, WAY more valuable position than strong safety for most teams. Unless you're looking at a really unique talent at SS like the Steelers and Cardinals have, you'd probably rather have a guy play WLB if he can do both.

Sims can't stay healthy and doesn't fit Schwartz's scheme. I would have thought they could get more for him than Scheffler and a 7th-rounder, but I can see why they dealt him while he still had value.

Couple of new prospects on the radar: the Bears had Montana OT Levi Horn, West Texas A&M OT J'Marcus Webb, and USC OL Nick Howell in for pre-draft visits. Mike Tice put Horn and Webb through private workouts, as well.

Makes sense, especially for a team that's just trying to increase their talent across the board right now. Suh is the kind of player that doesn't come around that often, and I imagine it'd be hard to pass up on him for Okung at #2. Okung's a good left tackle, but Suh could turn their d-line into a major strong point. I don't know if this has been posted here yet, but check this out: 1: 98 tackles, 23.5 TFL, 9.5 sacks, 20 QB hits, 5 passes broken up, 0 Int, 1 FF, 3 Blk 2: 112 tackles, 33 TFL, 14 sacks, 48 QB hits, 5 passes broken up, 0 Int, 1 FF, 0 Blk 3: 116 tackles, 25.5 TFL, 15.5 sacks, 10 QB hits, 7 passes broken up, 0 Int, 2 FF, 0 Blk 4: 82 tackles, 23 TFL, 12 sacks, 24 QB hits, 10 passes broken up, 1 Int, 1 FF, 3 Blk #1 = Alabama DL #2 = Florida DL #3 = Texas DL #4 = Ndamukong Suh. By himself. ...I really don't want to see that guy matched up on Frank Omiyale twice a season.

I'm trying to think of the last time a head coach actually had success choosing his offensive system over his roster, and I can't come up with anything. I agree with you: good coaches have to adapt the system they run to the players they have. To continue with the Patriots example, look at what they did when Brady went down and Cassel stepped in. He was getting creamed for the first few games until they figured out that he was way more effective at reading defenses in the shotgun. Then they switch their passing game around, run almost everything out of the shotgun, and Cassel plays like a legit starter. Everybody talks about the Patriots' offensive system, but to me, that offense is more defined by adaptability to its personnel than by anything else. They were a totally run-heavy offense with Corey Dillon in 2004, then they switched to a pass-heavy spread when they got Moss and Welker, but you'll see them go right back to hammering the run when they're playing a poor run defense. That's what worries me about Martz: he reminds me a lot more of McDaniels than Belichick. He doesn't seem like he's willing to adapt, he seems like he runs his system and that's it. It was a hit when he happened to have the personnel to run it perfectly, but it's flopped every time he didn't. Maybe he'll surprise everybody and change his system to fit Chicago's personnel, I don't know. He's certainly smart enough to do it, but he seems too stubborn.

Yeah, I agree that Scheffler's not as good as Olsen: he's even more of a one-dimensional player, basically just a big wide receiver. I do think that Olsen and Scheffler have the same basic skillset, though, which is very different from Pettigrew's. Pettigrew's a big bulldozing TE who happens to be able to catch, but he's never going to have a good speed matchup on linebackers and safeties. Getting a speedy move TE as a complement to Pettigrew makes sense - with Scheffler on board, they can install a legit 2-TE package. Also, the Lions have two good wideouts in Johnson-Burleson, but everybody behind those two is awful: if it were me, I'd much rather use Scheffler as a pseudo-slot-receiver than put Dennis Northcutt or Bryant Johnson on the field. If they're planning to use Scheffler as basically a big slot receiver, the move makes a lot more sense. Also, as for Scheffler's stats, it's important to remember that he hardly ever saw the rock last season. 31 catches for 416 yards isn't that impressive until you realize that they only threw it to him 50 times. For comparison, Olsen got 108 passes thrown his way last season. Even in Scheffler's best season (2008) he only got 61 passes, but he turned those into 40 receptions for 645 yards and 3 TDs. I think he could go right back to 650-750 yards a season in an offense that looked his way more often. I agree with you on Sims - I always thought he was a good player. He's very undersized, though, and I think the new regime in Detroit wants their linebackers to be bigger. They never seemed that thrilled with Sims, even when he was healthy. It does leave them with another hole in the defense, though: they must be pretty confident that they can have another good defensive draft this year.

I can see that point. I'd be surprised if either Orton or Brady Quinn turned into a franchise QB, so McDaniels better get one in the draft. I posted this in another thread, but McDaniels just traded Tony Scheffler to the Lions. He really is blowing up Shanahan's old offense over there, and it sure seems like it's just a system thing, like he brought his offensive system over from the Patriots and just started jettisoning all the guys who didn't fit, regardless of talent and production.

More moves from Detroit. Apparently they weren't done after getting Nate Burleson and Rob Sims from the Seahawks...they just announced a three-way trade with the Eagles and Broncos: Detroit sends Ernie Sims to Philadelphia Philadelphia sends its 5th-round pick to Denver Denver sends Tony Scheffler and its 7th-round pick to Detroit ...looks like their coaching staff was really serious about drawing attention away from Calvin Johnson. Between Burleson and Scheffler, Stafford will definitely have some other options in the passing game. I know it's the Lions, but this can't bode well for our secondary: they have a hard enough time covering Johnson as is. Stafford proved he could light our guys up (to the tune of 296 yards and a 67% completion rate) even when he had nobody but Johnson to throw to and his line was getting him sacked constantly. If they couldn't handle CJ by himself, how're they going to deal with him plus two other decent receiving threats? If anything, Angelo better be looking even harder for a new free safety this offseason. I don't want to see Scheffler matched up on Kevin Payne.

OK, here's my two cents. I'm assuming the Bears stand pat, which made it a little tough: 3. Darrell Stuckey, FS, Kansas - Played strong safety at Kansas, but a lot of scouts seem to think he projects better to free safety as a pro. If Chicago doesn't trade up to get Allen or Burnett, Stuckey could be an option at #75. Has good range and ball skills, plays well in zone coverage (although he struggles in man on quick receivers,) and can play centerfield in single-high situations. Always looking for turnovers, and is pretty effective going for the strip, which would fit well in Lovie's defense. Not an ideal pick, but if the Bears stand pat at #75, Stuckey might be the best of the rest. 4. Mike Johnson, LG, Alabama - Johnson could start at left guard immediately, allowing Omiyale to compete with Shaffer at RT and Beekman to stay on at center. He's been a durable starter, is a good short-yardage blocker, and should do well in pass protection. Limited as an athlete, but is intelligent, tenacious, and gets the job done even when it isn't pretty. 5. Alterraun Verner, CB, UCLA - Verner fits well as a zone corner, and could develop into a starting-caliber player behind Tillman. His durability and ridiculous level of production (279 career tackles, 13 interceptions, 56 passes deflected, 5 defensive TDs) would push him much higher in the draft, but his lack of pure speed will probably limit him to defenses like Chicago's that use corners in short-area coverage more often. Verner may never be great when isolated in man coverage on faster receivers, but he could turn into a productive-if-scheme-dependent starter, a la Nate Vasher circa 2005. At a minimum, he should be a quality nickel DB with the potential for more if used correctly. 6. Nate Collins, DT, Virginia - With Idonije moving to end full-time, Chicago needs depth on the interior d-line. Tommie Harris might be more effective if his snaps were limited in more of a rotation with another penetrating DT, but Marcus Harrison hasn't shown that he's that player. Collins might be: he's at his best when shooting gaps, and is a pretty good handfighter who can definitely shed blocks. Broke out as a senior with 84 tackles, 3 sacks, and 13 TFLs. Undersized and wouldn't hold up against the run an every-down player, but looks like a valuable piece in a rotation. 7. Chris Scott, RG, Tennessee - Not an immediate starter, but the Bears get a developmental RG behind Garza here. Scott played right guard for Tennessee before moving to left tackle, and should move back to guard in the NFL. He's got great strength as a drive-blocker and is pretty solid in pass-protection (his line set the NCAA record for fewest sacks allowed - 3 in 519 pass attempts - and Scott did not allow a sack as a senior.) Needs to improve quickness off the snap, but could end up being a good drive-blocking RG.

Just chiming in: the Rams' 2nd-rounder is #33 overall. It's a first-round pick, for all intents and purposes. Olsen was only drafted two spots higher than that in the first place. I'm against trading Olsen, but if he could net us the very first pick in the 2nd round, I guess it could be OK. We'd have a shot at some real difference-makers at #33 - players Olsen's caliber or better. Also, I've heard that St. Louis has been talking to Denver about Tony Scheffler...he could be had for a much lower draft pick than Olsen, and given the number of holes the Rams have to address, I imagine they might go that route. Even if they take Bradford and solve their QB problem, they've got a TON of needs (O-line, DT, WR, CB) to fix with that 2nd-rounder. Sending it for Olsen might be kind of a luxury, even if he comes packaged with a 3rd.

Yeah, he looks a little trimmer. Hard to tell from that one photo and the ~3 seconds that he's in the video of offseason workouts (right around the 1:01 mark,) but he does look a little lighter than last season. Here's hoping he can actually contribute this year.

Yeah, and that jives with some of the talk I've been hearing, that the Bears might not have enough ammo to move up to the 2nd. If they think Burnett, Allen, and Wright could all be gone by #75, then they better start scouting some of the third-round corners to see who might be able to move to safety. I'll be interested to see if they start looking at the third-round strong safeties, too - maybe one of them could make the switch to free. Darrell Stuckey from Kansas might be a candidate, so might Reshad Jones from Georgia. Either of them could have enough range/coverage ability to move to free safety.

Robert Johnson's rated as a sixth-round pick right now. He's the 10th-ranked free safety (11th if you count Earl Thomas as a FS not a CB.) He'd be a giant reach in the third, especially if we already had Atogwe on board. If we signed Atogwe, I'd like to see a left guard or right tackle in the 3rd round, depending on where they think Omiyale can play. I wouldn't be mad if they got a corner there, either, so we could have an eventual successor to Peanut. Dominique Franks, Walter Thurmond and Amari Spievey should all be around in the 3rd, and it'd be nice to have a decent corner developing behind Tillman and Bowman.

I just meant that Marshall and Cutler are both Pro Bowl players, so to break even on trading them away for draft picks, he needs to get at least two equally good players with the picks he got for Marshall/Cutler. But if you mean (like Mongo said) that a Pro Bowl QB or WR is worth more than a Pro Bowler at most other positions, I could see that. I guess I should say that he needs to get two equally good players at equally important positions: I think you could make an argument that corners, left tackles, and pass rushers are at least close to as important as QBs and receivers. Looking at the Broncos, I think Elvis Dumervil, Champ Bailey, and Ryan Clady are all probably close to as valuable as Cutler or Marshall. But yeah, if McDaniels drafts Pro Bowlers at center and strong safety or something, that's clearly not going to make up for trading away your whole passing game.

Makes sense, really. It sounds like they're keeping Crabtree and Josh Morgan as the starters and using Ginn as a kick returner and #3 WR, which is about right. EDIT: Also, if we're thinking about Ginn as a KR and #3 WR, check this out...Johnny Knox is better: Knox 2009: 80 targets, 45 catches, 527 yards, 5 TD. Ginn 2009: 78 targets, 38 catches, 454 yards, 1 TD. Knox 2009: 32 kick returns, 927 yards (29.0 avg.), 1 TD Ginn 2009: 52 kick returns, 1296 yards (24.9 avg.), 2 TD

Seriously. I know there's a learning curve for young players, but McDaniels' picks from the Cutler trade (Robert Ayers, Richard Quinn, Seth Olsen) haven't had any impact so far. If none of those guys steps up in the next couple of seasons, then McDaniels basically needs to get two Pro Bowlers out of the three picks he has left, just to break even on Cutler and Marshall.

I think it's getting to be borderline inevitable that Angelo's going to have to trade up if he wants to draft a starting free safety. It looks like we might even have to move up to draft Major Wright, to say nothing of Allen or Burnett: word is that the Dolphins love Wright and they'll draft him if he falls to them at #73.