defiantgiant

I think this is spot-on. What you see is what you get with Brown: he's a solid all-around base end. He plays the run pretty well, he applies steady pressure in the pass game, but he doesn't actually get to the QB that often. He always has a fairly high number of pressures and QB hits, but he's only a 6-7 sack per year guy. For a fourth-round pick, he's been excellent value, but I don't expect him to do anything but what we've seen thus far. He may benefit a little from moving to the left side if Peppers plays RE, but I don't think it'll be a big change. I think Anthony Adams is like Brown on the interior line: does his job, steady player, doesn't really have room to break out. I expect him and Brown to keep on doing what they do, even with the addition of Peppers. I'm not expecting anything from Marcus Harrison until he shows up in shape, and Gilbert/Melton are total unknowns. So I think you're right: it's all on Tommie. Assuming that Peppers will draw a lot of double-teams, Tommie's going to have to prove that he can beat single-blocks on a consistent basis. I think he can do it, but we'll have to wait and see.

So the Bears are the biggest players in free agency, for sure, but they aren't the only ones. The Lions are making some aggressive moves of their own: so far, they've inked Nate Burleson from the Seahawks and Kyle Vanden Bosch from the Titans, plus they traded to get Corey Williams from the Browns. None of those are blockbuster moves like the Peppers signing, but they're all pretty smart, I think. Burleson isn't a great #1 receiver, but as a #2 paired with Calvin Johnson, he's miles better than Bryant Johnson or anybody else on Detroit's roster. I think he could be a credible complementary receiver, which they haven't had in a while. As for KVB and Williams, I think those could end up being very, very shrewd moves. KVB's not a sack machine any more, but he'll be a solid base end and he's a great leader. Williams couldn't make the switch to a 3-4 DE, but the last time he was allowed to play his natural 3-technique spot, he racked up 14 sacks in 2 seasons. He should still be at least a league-average starter at the 3, which is huge for a team that didn't even have a real 3-tech on the roster last season. If the Lions draft Suh like everybody's predicting, Cliff Avril's going to be the only returning starter on the line, and he's the only one from last year who really deserves to come back. In one offseason, they'll have taken one of the worst d-lines in the league and made it into at least an average group, maybe a pretty good one if Suh makes an impact right away. Combined with the linebacker corps they put together last offseason, that's a credible front seven. Assuming they draft Suh, they're like a corner and a strong safety away from a real defense. I know they're division rivals, but I'm excited to see the Lions start to become competitive again. It's way more satisfying to beat a real rival, instead of a punching bag like Detroit has been the past few years. If the new regime over there keeps going the way it has been, it's going to be fun to watch the NFC North turn into a four-team division again.

Stafford got $41.75 mil guaranteed, Haynesworth got $41 million. Peppers' guaranteed money is larger than either. Also, the total value of the contract is $91.5 million, not $72 million, according to Rotoworld. That said, who knows how much of that he'll ever see. A lot of it is in incentives for sacks, Pro Bowls, and Defensive Player of the Year awards. Also, if I'm reading this stuff right, of the $42 million in guaranteed money, $40.5 million is in the first 3 years of the deal. So if Peppers turns 34 and runs out of gas, the Bears aren't going to be on the hook for very much money. EDIT: Stafford's contract could be thought of as being larger than Peppers', because Stafford will make an additional $6 million for playing 35% of the offensive snaps as a rookie (which he easily did) and 45% of snaps over the life of his deal. That's practically guaranteed money, since he'll get it just for being the starter in 2010 and 2011. They could cut him after that, with three years left on his deal, and they'd still be on the hook for $47.75 million total.

Yeah, I mean, even if he's still able to produce at a high level right now, his age and injuries hurt his value. How many seasons can he have left in him? You just don't give up a 2nd or a 1st for only two or three years of production. I think the deal makes a fair amount of sense for both sides: Arizona gets fair compensation, and Baltimore gets an immediate (if short-term) fix at receiver, which frees them up to draft and develop some guys.

I'd love Burnett/Allen and Jerry in the 2nd and 3rd. If we can get Allen or Burnett, I think I'd be OK with dealing Olsen: either of them could step in immediately and contribute at least as much at FS as Olsen does at TE. And Jerry could be a Leonard Davis-type bulldozer at guard, or even kick out to right tackle. He could give the staff some flexibility to find out what Omiyale's position really is and stick him there. Here's what I'd do if I were the Bears: 2. Morgan Burnett, FS, Georgia Tech or Nate Allen, FS, South Florida - starter at free safety, nuff said 3. John Jerry, OG/RT, Ole Miss - should help out the run game immensely 4. TJ Ward, SS, Oregon - I'm not sold on any of our current safeties, and Manning needs to move back to nickel corner where he belongs. Plus, Ward loves to hit, and Oregon's DBs have been tearing it up in the NFL lately. 5. Alric Arnett, WR, WVU - looks like he could develop into an ideal Mike Martz receiver. Tall wideout with good hands, can pull in one-handed catches easily. Looks like a legitimate deep threat, tracks the ball exceedingly well down the field, and is a slick route-runner. Needs to bulk up and will be a little bit of a developmental project, but has Chris Henry-type upside. 6. Walter Thurmond, CB, Oregon - has top-75 ability and was more productive in college than either Jairus Byrd or Patrick Chung. His knee will have to check out medically, but he's a starting-caliber corner if he's healthy. Equally good in man and zone coverage, great ballhawk, reliable tackler. 7. Will Barker, RT, Virginia - latest in a string of UVa offensive linemen. Bookended D'Brickashaw Ferguson, Branden Albert, and Eugene Monroe. Durable long-term starter on the right side, has pretty good technique, but will need some work on his balance/lateral agility to make the jump to the NFL. Great frame (6'7" 317 pounds) but limited athleticism.

I think it doesn't necessarily have to be one or the other. He went to finish his degree at Tulane in the offseason, which is a perfectly valid thing for a young player to do. But from what I've heard, he showed up looking a little soft after that, and his conditioning wasn't great. I wouldn't be surprised at all if that had something to do with his MCL and hamstring injuries. With some bona fide competition from Taylor to motivate him and a full offseason devoted to training rather than classes, I don't doubt that Forte will bounce back.

I think the Sun-Times just changed the URL to reflect the fact that Taylor's expected to sign today, too: http://blogs.suntimes.com/bears/2010/03/so...or_signing.html

No thanks. We ask our corners to, you know, tackle guys once in a while. Watch the Chargers-Jets game again...Cromartie was literally running himself out of plays rather than make a tackle. He'd come downhill like he was going to hit the ballcarrier and then just pull up and look around instead of doing it. I'd way rather have Richard Marshall from the Panthers: he's a corner who will actually hit a guy. Of course, he got a second-round tender, so he's out of the question.

I mean, I'm not an expert, but Brown was more assignment-sound and was used in more 2-deep coverage from what I saw. The Saints' defense uses a lot of Cover-1 blitz packages and lets Sharper gamble a lot more in terms of jumping routes, sitting on routes, etc. When I watched Brown play, he got his hands on a lot of passes, but he did it mostly by staying disciplined in his zone coverage and making a play once the ball was in the air. I think Sharper is better when he's allowed to read the quarterback and anticipate the throw before it happens, like he was in New Orleans and Green Bay. It's just an issue of scheme and responsibilities, I think.

I worry that Peppers wants to come to Chicago for the wrong reasons. Every time they do those surveys of which coaches players would like to play for, Lovie's at or near the top of the list, and I really think it's because he has a reputation for being soft on his players. I think the perception around the league is that guys don't have to work very hard in Chicago, and I've been reading that Peppers' interest in the Bears started after talking to Dante Wesley and Chris Harris about what it was like to play there. The guy's effort is a major concern, even with his ridiculous talent. He didn't even play hard consistently when he was trying to get a new deal out of Carolina. I hope he's not choosing Chicago because he's planning to mail it in after one last payday. That said, even if he only turns it on about as often as he did for the Panthers the last two seasons, he'll still be a good-not-great addition. And he'll have some cupcake matchups in the NFC North: TJ Lang's only serviceable, Bryant McKinnie has major trouble with speed rushers, and Jeff Backus is just terrible. The three of them could make Peppers look pretty good, if only for six games a year.

My worry is that he really didn't do well the last time he was in a zone-heavy scheme. He was a man-coverage corner in Cleveland and in New England, but his play fell off the face of the earth in Detroit. I don't think you can blame the decline on the Lions' lack of talent, either: Bodden played with some pretty poor supporting casts in Cleveland and still did well. I think the guy's just a little scheme-limited, and unfortunately the Bears' scheme is a bad fit for him.

Yeah, the last time Sharper was in a Cover-2 (in Minnesota) he wasn't nearly as effective. When he went to Gregg Williams' defense in New Orleans, he got to freelance more and play more of a robber type of role. He's much better suited to that than to being a Cover-2 safety. Plus, he can't have more than a year or two left in the tank...how many 37-year-old safeties do you see running around? As for Clark, he's a devastating hitter, but that's about it. I really think he's only an effective free safety on the Steelers because they've got Troy Polamalu roving all over the field from the strong side. Clark just doesn't cause many turnovers, and most of what he seems to do in Pittsburgh is clean up on the back end. The guy's got 8 interceptions and 3 forced fumbles in an 8-year career. I think he's a strong safety anywhere but Pittsburgh. I'd love to get Atogwe, especially if we can't afford Rolle. If we can't get either of them, I'd prefer to draft a guy with our 3rd than to bring in Clark or Sharper.

Yeah, I was actually trying to refer to the Hutchinson deal there. We offer Atogwe a contract, then insert a clause that says "the full amount of the deal becomes guaranteed if he ever plays 8 games in Edward Jones Dome in a single season" or something like that. The principal terms of the deal aren't altered, and the guaranteed money would make it prohibitively expensive for the Rams to keep him, especially since they're trying to save money as it is. That's all dependent on Atogwe actually signing an offer sheet, but I have to imagine that he could be pried away from St. Louis. As far as the Bears are from making a Super Bowl run, the Rams are infinitely further.

I know...I'd like to see the Rams-to-Bears pipeline pan out for once. Maybe Atogwe can make that happen. He certainly looks like he'd be a good player in our scheme, and all we have to do is draw up an offer sheet with something ridiculous like "$50 million in guaranteed money if he plays on the same team as Steven Jackson" and we're set. I know the league frowns on poison pill offers, but as far as I know, there's no actual sanction for it.

Umm, I guess I was a little hasty saying that it would be stupid for the Rams to use the lowest tender on Atogwe. According to Rotoworld, they just did: The Rams have assigned the lowest possible restricted free agent tender, known as "right of first refusal," to FS O.J. Atogwe. The team announced the move was made "with intent to sign...a long term contract." Atogwe has until June 1 to find an offer sheet elsewhere. If he doesn't, the Rams have to cut him or pay him nearly $7 million at that point. While Atogwe's play was down some, he remained St. Louis' top defensive back. The 29-year-old is sure to generate interest and a trade can't be ruled out. I guess the first-and-third tender would mean that they'd have to pay him 10% more than he earned last year. Since he was on the franchise tag last year and made $6.3 million, they'd have to pay him $6.9 million to give him the highest tender. If I were Chicago, I'd be drawing up a poison pill offer sheet right this instant.

My point, though is that it was only for one year: Boldin was drafted in 2003, and Fitz in 2004. I'm not comfortable valuing a player based on what he did in 2003, and everything he's done since has been with Fitz to draw defenders away. He's probably the league's best #2 receiver, but I think there's no telling whether he could handle the increased attention from defenses if somebody were to make him their #1.

I'd definitely be happy with drafting him in the 3rd. If it weren't a banner year for safeties he'd probably be gone by the mid-2nd.

If there were going to be a second team, it had better be the Cardinals, and I don't see that happening now. I wouldn't want a team that doesn't have any history with the city coming in, just because it's a big market. "The Chicago Jaguars" just sounds wrong...

The Broncos wouldn't do it. Look at how they valued their receiving TE: they gave Tony Scheffler an original-pick tender, which almost ensures that he'll be gone. They're probably going to let Scheffler walk this offseason, because McDaniels doesn't like to use receiving TEs. That said, if they were interested, I'm kind of torn. Marshall's a pretty unique talent at WR, but he comes with so much baggage. It's not just off the field stuff: Shanahan apparently got close to cutting Marshall over his poor route-running and concentration problems. On the other hand, if he's got his head on straight, he'd give us a top-tier receiver for a long time. The guy's only 25, and he's at least as talented as Olsen. That's a big part of it for me: we wouldn't necessarily be mortgaging the future, since Marshall and Olsen are both young and extremely talented. As much as I would hate to deal Olsen, and for all our young receivers' potential, bringing in Marshall would be tempting. Marshall and Hester would be a great size/speed combination. Marshall's ability over the middle could free up Hester to run more of the deep/outside routes that he's better at. Plus, he'd keep Hester from being double-covered or bracketed all the time. Also, Marshall's kind of an ideal receiver for Cutler. He likes to have a go-to guy, and he likes to make risky throws into coverage. Marshall's frame and his strength make him one of those "even when he's covered, he's not covered" receivers, which Cutler clearly took advantage of in Denver. I wouldn't mind seeing a 3-way trade go down: Olsen to a team like the Patriots, one of the Pats' 2nd-round picks to Denver, and Marshall to Chicago. If Lovie and company are satisfied that Marshall can stay out of trouble, that could pay off in a big way.

Yeah, I was thinking the same thing. If he could add a little weight, he could be a good 3-4 OLB or a blitzing 4-3 OLB like the Seahawks use. I'm not sure he'd do well in a 4-3 that drops their linebackers into coverage, but I'm sure there'd be a place for him. But you're right, somebody's going to think he's a FS and draft him way too high.

I'm pretty sure they still hold his rights until free agency starts on Friday.

Why would you trade Olsen for Boldin? Olsen's 5 years younger, faster, and doesn't have Boldin's injury problems. Boldin will be 30 in October...how many good seasons can he possibly have left? Even if he can keep up his current level of play, he's benefited tremendously in the past couple of season from the amount of attention that opposing defenses have to focus on Larry Fitzgerald. There's no telling whether Boldin could put up a 1,000-yard season with teams doubling, bracketing, or shadowing him every game. He was the focus of the Cards' offense in 2003, but he hasn't been ever since. Also, if you don't want a me-first player, why are you suggesting we bring in a guy who's spent the past two seasons clamoring for a trade, complaining that he doesn't get paid enough, and literally shouting at his coaches for playing time? Boldin's made his dissatisfaction with the team extremely public, whereas the thing with Olsen looks like it was primarily orchestrated by Drew Rosenhaus.

I would love it if Burnett made it to the 3rd, and I think it's not out of the question, given how many good safeties are ahead of him. NFLDraftScout has a 2nd-3rd grade on him, and I could see him slipping a little since he didn't run the 40 at the Combine. His estimated 40 is in the mid-to-low 4.5 range, which is fine for a safety, especially one his size (he's 6'1" 210 pounds.) Here's the NDS report on him: Overview Burnett had a breakout season as a sophomore. He tied for the national lead with seven interceptions, led the Yellow Jackets in total tackles (93) and solo tackles (62) and earned All-American honors. Burnett wasn't inexperienced, even though he started just one game as a freshman. He played in every game and led the Yellow Jackets with three interceptions in 2007. His 2009 production (85 tackles, 48 solos and four interceptions) was solid, and the playmaking Burnett proved that his sophomore season was no fluke. His 14 career interceptions rank second in Georgia Tech history. Blessed with protoytpical size, Burnett's final grade might be determined by his time in the 40-yard dash. NFL teams have plenty of options on draft day at safety, considering the influx of underclassmen, but don't expect them to wait long to nab a natural playmaker like Burnett. A top-75 grade and quick ascension into an NFL lineup appears likely. Analysis Read & React: Reliable instincts for the position. Diagnoses the play and accelerates quickly to the ball, showing little wasted motion. Understands his role as the last line of defense and takes good angles to limit the damage. Man Coverage: A bit high in his backpedal, but can flip his hips to turn and run with receivers. Changes direction quickly enough that he was often asked to drop down as a nickel cornerback and appears to have the fluidity and break on the ball to do so at the next level. Good hand strength to press at the line of scrimmage. Keeps his hands on the receiver at the start of his route to disrupt timing with the quarterback. Quick, active hands to fight with the receiver as the ball arrives. Good ball skills (14 career INTs). Zone Coverage: An alert zone defender, Burnett understands his role and the role of his teammates. Recognizes holes in the zone and is quick to react. Sneaks a peek back at the quarterback and breaks on the ball quickly. Has the straight-line speed and agility to change direction necessary in being a true centerfielder in three-deep coverage and the range for two-deep. Closing/Recovery: Sneaks a peek into the backfield to read the quarterback's eyes. Generates speed quickly out of his breaks and shows a late burst to close. Locates the ball quickly and competes for the jump ball. Highpoints the ball and has the body control and strength in his hands to come down with the contested interception. Run Support: Willing and active in run support. Attacks the line of scrimmage, but will take questionable angles to the ball and is too often forced to re-direct at the last moment and latch on for a drag-down tackle, rather than applying a forceful pop. Willing to take on blockers, but prefers to elude and make the tackle himself. Tackling: Flashes some pop as a hitter. Can be an intimidating presence over the middle. Often leads with his shoulder rather than wrapping up. Generally a reliable wrap-up open-field tackler. Takes questionable angles when coming down in run support, forcing himself to lunge and latch on to the ballcarrier attempting to cut back against him. Has the strong, accurate hands to grab hold for the pull-down tackle, but this is an area in which he could improve. Stronger NFL runners will be able to break away from his arm tackles. Intangibles: Elected to leave early despite what some characterized as a "disappointing" 2009 season. Signed with Georgie Tech as a highly touted prep prospect. Received offers from Alabama, Florida and Georgia. First career touchdown came on an INT return against 2009 No. 1 draft pick Matthew Stafford in 2008.

Atogwe would almost certainly be a better fit in Lovie's defense than Rolle, and I think they're probably on the same level as players. Atogwe's been a real bright spot on an awful Rams defense. That's not to say he's perfect: from what I've seen, Atogwe isn't a stellar tackler, and he's certainly not a thumper against the run, but he's very good in pass coverage. Yes, he's 28 and he's been a little dinged up, but if it's not going to cost a draft pick, he'd be worth an investment. I have no idea why the Rams would do something stupid like use the lowest tender on him, but if they do, the Bears need to open the checkbook immediately.

There's something going on with the official 40 times this year. Apparently when you watch the video overlay, Mays finishes before Trindon Holliday. If that's true, one of their official times must be wrong. Anyway, regardless of how fast he can run in a straight line, Mays is terrible at changing direction. A lot of teams have been projecting him to outside linebacker, rather than safety.