defiantgiant

More on problematizing DVOA: Just like a running back's DVOA is inseparable from his offensive line's performance, a wide receiver's DVOA is inseparable from his QB's performance. According to Football Outsiders, "we cannot yet fully separate the performance of a receiver from the performance of his quarterback. Be aware that one will affect the other." If you believe DVOA alone, Dwayne Bowe is the 66th best wide receiver in the league, worse than the Jaguars' Reggie Williams. But Bowe is an excellent wide receiver with a bad quarterback, whereas Williams is a bad receiver with a pretty good quarterback. It makes sense that all the Bears' receivers had negative DVOA: even with a good quarterback, they may have been in the red. But Greg Olsen has a DVOA of 0.0, and he's far from a league-average receiving TE (note: DVOA only measures tight ends as receivers.) Again, if you take his DVOA out of context, you'd think that Kevin Boss and Brent Celek are better receiving TEs than Olsen, when they're actually less talented receivers with more talented quarterbacks. Likewise, you'd think that the Broncos and the Dolphins each have TWO tight ends better than Olsen, and that both the Panthers' TEs (Dante Rosario and Jeff King, whose name I had to look up) are better than Kellen freaking Winslow, who's arguably one of the top 5 receiving TEs in the NFL. Are Dante Rosario and Jeff King really better receiving TEs than Kellen Winslow? No way, but they do have a significantly better QB. The same is true of the Broncos and Dolphins last season: both Jay Cutler and Chad Pennington were more effective than Kyle Orton, and it's reflected in the DVOA of those teams' tight ends. EDIT: I should say this: as much as I have a problem with DVOA as an indicator of individual performance, I do have to admit that Football Outsiders' individual projections for the Bears' players are pretty close to what I'm expecting: Hester: 62 receptions, 858 yards (13.8 avg.) and 5 touchdowns. It adds up to a 2.7 percent DVOA. Olsen: 61 receptions, 738 yards, 7 touchdowns, 17.0 percent DVOA Matt Forte: 322 rushes, 1,272 yards, 4.0 average, 68 receptions, 417 yards, 14 touchdowns, 2 touchdowns, 8.4 percent DVOA (as a rusher) Cutler: 301 completions, 493 attempts, 61.2 percent, 3,409 yards, 20 touchdowns, 12 interceptions, 3.0 percent DVOA. I think Cutler and Hester could both do a little better than they're projecting, but I wouldn't be mad at all if their projections were accurate.

DVOA has some value as a statistic, but should be taken with a large grain of salt. As an example, if you only look at DVOA ratings, you would have to think that Matt Forte is actually a significantly worse-than-average running back. His negative 7.1% DVOA is 38th in the league. Why is this? Because, by FO's own admission, DVOA and their other statistics, "do not separate the performance of a running back from the performance of his offensive line." If you go to their page on Adjusted Line Yards (a stat that I much prefer to DVOA) you can see that the Bears' line ranked 25th in the league in ALY. No team ranked 25th or worse in ALY had a back in the top 20 for DVOA, so I think it's safe to say that a back's DVOA can be skewed by a poor offensive line. Furthermore, according to FO, "a team with a low ranking in Adjusted Line Yards but a high ranking in [carries of] 10+ Yards is heavily dependent on its running back breaking long runs to make the running game work." The Bears ranked 25th in ALY but 16th in carries of at least 10 yards, so I think it's fair to say that it was the offensive line holding Forte back, not the other way around. Still, if you only look at his DVOA, you'd think he was a pretty lousy running back. I'm not saying DVOA is a bad stat, but it needs to be taken in context, just like YPC or any other stat.

I think there's good reason to think that Cutler will throw a LOT fewer interceptions in the Bears' offense. It's fairly impressive that he reduced his interception rate from 2007 to 2008, considering that he also went from 467 attempts to 616; most quarterbacks would regress under similar circumstances. Look at the first season Drew Brees topped 600. In 2006, Brees threw 554 times and had 11 interceptions, or one every 50.4 attempts. Then in 2007, he threw 652 times and had 18 picks, one every 36.2 passes. Like the 2008 Broncos, the 2007 Saints had a poor defense and a lot of their games turned into shootouts. Like Cutler, Brees had a single dominant wide receiver: Marques Colston's 2007 was pretty comparable to Brandon Marshall's 2008. Also, both teams had pass-first offensive systems and each lost multiple running backs to injury (the 2007 Saints lost Deuce McAllister after game 3 and Reggie Bush later in the season.) Brees did what you'd expect a QB to do in that kind of situation: he threw picks more often. Cutler, on the other hand, took care of the ball better than the season before. I think that means he probably improved a lot more than we saw: I'm guessing that Cutler would have thrown WAY fewer picks he not been put in a situation where every opposing defense knew he had to throw it. With Forte to keep defenses honest, Cutler should throw a lot fewer picks in 2009.

Also, the one-interception difference between Cutler and Brees puts those two in entirely different parts of the list. If Cutler had thrown 17 picks instead of 18, he'd be at one pick per 36.24 attempts, right behind Brees (who, incidentally, is the only other QB on the list to attempt at least 600 passes.) I'm not sure one interception, more or less, is all that significant.

Yeah, plus with the addition of Percy Harvin, a healthy Sidney Rice, and Shiancoe emerging as a decent receiver, I'm not sure AP will even hit his usual 20-receptions mark this season. There are just too many other guys for those dumpoffs to the flat or drag/shallow crossing routes where halfbacks usually get their receiving targets. In a PPR league, I'd take Forte in a heartbeat. I'm ambivalent on Joyner. On the one hand, he did watch all of Cutler's games himself and record it every time he saw a "bad decision" on a play. That's better than just drawing conclusions based on statistics, like I usually have to. On the other hand, he hasn't (as far as I know) disclosed what his metrics were: Joyner says Cutler makes too many bad decisions, but we don't know what he considered to constitute a bad decision. Was it just the times when Cutler threw into double coverage? Hard to blame him for that when he's throwing to Brandon Marshall, who's always double-covered and makes plays regardless. If Joyner was counting times when Cutler locked in on a receiver, missed a hot read, didn't check down when he should have, etc. then I guess that's a different story. We just don't know. But a quick look at Cutler's career numbers suggests that he's a far cry from Rex Grossman. The thing that excites me about Cutler, and the thing that dramatically separates him from Grossman, is his consistency. If memory serves, a passer rating of 80 is supposed to represent the average performance for an NFL starter. In Cutler's 37 starts, he's had 15 games with a passer rating under 80, that is, games where he was below average. However, in only 6 of those 15 did he have a passer rating under 70. He's gotten at least an 80 passer rating in his other 22 starts, and here's the kicker: in a whopping 18 of those 22, his passer rating was at least a 90. What does that tell me about Cutler? First off, on a game-by-game basis, he's good more often than he's bad. That's a start. Secondly, when he does have a bad game, it's usually mediocre (70-79.9 passer rating) rather than catastrophic. Thirdly, when he has a good game, it's almost always exceptionally good (over 90 rating.) Let's look at Grossman's record and see if it stacks up the same way: Rex has had 35 total NFL starts, including the postseason. He had worse than an 80 passer rating in 21 of those 35 games. So unlike Cutler, Rex was bad more often than he was good. And when Rex is bad, he's usually REALLY bad: of those 21 games under an 80, 18 of them were under a 70. In fact, in 11 of those 21 games, Rex was under a 60, which is really incredibly bad (Cutler has only had 3 games below a 60 in his whole career.) Joyner's right about one aspect of the Cutler-Grossman comparison, however: looking at the 14 games where Rex was at least average (an 80 passer rating or more,) he had over a 90 passer rating in 10 of them. So like Cutler, when Grossman was good, he was great. But unlike Cutler, Grossman was bad much more often than he was good. Most importantly, when he was bad, he was usually flat-out awful. That was the killer about Grossman: when he was bad, he was bad enough to lose the game all by himself. That fact far outweighed the benefits of his occasional stratospherically-good game. Cutler's good games are incredibly good, just like Grossman's. But more importantly, his bad games are manageable. They're disappointing, not appalling. On a team with a good defense and a strong running game, a bad day from Cutler won't take us out of the game. That's the biggest area in which he's an upgrade from Rex: every QB has bad days, but Cutler's bad days are ones that a good team can live with.

I agree on just about every point. I'm not talking about taking Forte down to 250 touches or something like that; he's the feature guy, and I don't want to see the Bears going with a committee approach. That said, Forte touched the ball 379 times last season (316 rushes and 63 receptions) and was on the field for 850 plays total. Between the rushes, the pass plays, and the blocking assignments when he wasn't getting the ball, that's a very big workload. I agree that a lot of rookies have to adjust to the 16-game season, and you usually see their conditioning improve by the second year, but I'd still hate to see Forte get overworked in 2009. Basically, all I'm saying is this: Ron Turner admitted that it was very hard to take Forte off the field last season because he was so productive. Turner basically stopped just short of saying that he gave Forte too much of a workload. With a better surrounding cast (better QB, improved Hester, healthy Kevin Jones, improved o-line like you mentioned) in 2009, I really hope that Chicago can find some opportunities to rest him a little.

Yeah, I feel the same way. I don't want to see Forte turn into Anthony Thomas and have one great season before injuries gradually ruin him. How many carries a back can take (before he starts to break down) varies significantly from individual to individual. Guys like Clinton Portis and LaDanian Tomlinson can take season after season in the mid-300s, but a lot of other great backs can't handle that many carries without getting nicked up. I think the end of last season showed us what Forte's limits are like: he started to break down by the last couple of games, even after they had been scaling back his touches somewhat. That's not a bad thing, we just need to know what Forte's ceiling is in terms of carries, then make sure we have other backs capable of shouldering the rest of the load. Look at Thomas Jones: he's a great back, but he's usually been kept around 290-310 carries as a feature back, with a quality #2 (Leon Washington or the 2005-2006 edition Cedric Benson) picking up the rest. I'd much rather that Chicago limit Forte to 290 or 300 touches, if doing so means that he can stay productive for the next 6 or 7 seasons.

Couldn't agree with you more. Turner, Orton, and Forte all made an offensive unit that should have been in the NFL basement into one that performed respectably. I was VERY down on Turner before last season, but he really impressed me. He adjusted his playbook to camouflage the glaring holes in the roster, he got the best possible performance out of the pieces he had, and the offense did surprisingly well as a result. Lovie might be on the hot seat this season, but I think Turner proved that he deserves to stay back in 2008.

Yeah, I think football tickets, of all things, should be allowed. If anything, I think the NCAA would benefit from letting its players go to some NFL games.

Per Rotoworld: "The Georgia football program is reportedly in "hot water" after Jay Cutler gave four Broncos-Falcons tickets to then-Bulldogs quarterback Matthew Stafford in November of last year. Stafford then distributed three to teammates. If the report is true, Stafford violated NCAA regulations and the Bulldogs risk losing scholarships, or may face other penalties. Dogs FB Shaun Chapas confirmed that he got a ticket, but says he donated $40 to a Boys and Girls Club in exchange. Georgia conveniently didn't report the violation(s) until after Stafford declared for the draft." Nice thing for Cutler to do for a college QB, even if the school shouldn't have let Stafford accept the tickets. I think it's kind of cool when NFC North rivals are actually friendly off the field: Aaron Rodgers and Peanut Tillman apparently work out together in the offseason. I'm sure Cutler would rather face Stafford twice a year than a guy like Philip Rivers.

Yeah, I don't know how much credence to give these quotes. I mean, it's nice to have them, but it all kind of sounds like the party line, and having Bears coaches interviewed by a Chicago Bears employee adds to that impression. I mean, there's not one negative comment about any player in there, or even any constructive criticism. If there were one "so-and-so needs to work on his blocking assignments" or something, it would lend the whole thing a lot more credibility. That said, I do agree with some of it. I think Forte will be improved this season. He'll be running behind a better line, and he's no longer the only threat on our offense, so he should see a lot fewer 8-man fronts. I think he'll crack 4 yards a carry, and he should approach his total yardage from last season on significantly fewer carries.

Yeah, in every picture I've ever seen of Rideau, he looked REALLY skinny. Like skinnier than Randy Moss. Check out this picture from last preseason: the guy's a stick figure. I think he has a chance to make the roster this season and maybe even contribute, but I wouldn't be surprised to see a draft pick or FA acquisition replace him in 2010. Really, I'd like to see us draft out of Elon in the middle rounds next year. He's from a small school, but he makes TONS of plays. He's not the fastest receiver in the world (4.54 40) but he goes 6'3" 237 lbs. and he's been dominant at his level: he had 62 catches for 1027 yards and 8 TDs in 2006, 117-1474-18 in 2007, and 86-1116-10 in 2008. The video in that link is a total puff piece, but you can see some clips of game footage.

McNair always seemed like a genuinely good guy, from stuff like this to the work he did after Katrina. It's a shame when anybody dies that young, but particularly awful that he died under the circumstances he did.

I agree that Davis struggled on the outside last year, but he's going back to the slot, where's he's always been serviceable if unspectacular. Also, when you're considering whether he's a lock to make the roster, remember that he's a staple on special teams units, particularly on the coverage team. Before Garrett Wolfe stepped up his ST play at the end of last season, Davis was looking like the best player on our coverage team. I think Davis could certainly get bumped down the depth chart or lose some snaps to Knox/Iglesias if he performs poorly, but I think he'll ultimately be kept on the roster, if only because he's a valuable ST player. I definitely don't think he's guaranteed to be our #3 receiver this season, but I've got no problem with him playing on special teams and competing for the slot receiver job. If he ends up #4 or #5 on the depth chart, at least that roster spot went to a productive special teamer.

Not to split hairs, but Rideau and Aromashodu are listed at 6'3" and 6'2", respectively. Still, they're both a couple of inches taller than any of our current receivers. I doubt that both guys get roster spots, but I wouldn't be surprised to see one of them make the roster. In my mind, there are five guys who are basically guaranteed a roster spot: Hester, Bennett, Davis, Iglesias, and Knox. I think, given the uncertainty at the position, we'll probably keep 6 WRs this season. That means that Rideau, Aromashodu, and Derek Kinder are all probably fighting to be the sixth receiver. Personally, I'd go with Rideau. All three guys are very unproven, but Rideau at least looked good in preseason games. He should be a good guy to sub in for red-zone packages, and I think he could develop pretty well in that role.

Honestly, I just hope he can fill the 3rd TE role. We haven't had a good pure blocking TE since John Gilmore left. Clark is a pretty good blocker, but he's not a bulldozer, and Olsen is just adequate. If Gaines can perform like Gilmore did in that role, I'll be happy with the acquisition.

That's an interesting point. I hadn't considered that having the rusher in the QB's field of vision would make for fewer sacks and more hits/pressures. It makes sense intuitively, and I bet it's true. It's a shame that the list doesn't include pressures and hits off failed blocks. Still, I'm glad that replacing our tackles was a high priority this offseason. If memory serves, last season the Bears actually averaged significantly higher YPC when running off the three middle linemen than when running off either tackle or running to left or right end. They also ran up the middle over 50% of the time. I'm not saying the middle did a GOOD job run-blocking (they were 15th in the league, according to Football Outsiders,) just that the tackles were even less effective. I'd be happy to see an upgrade in the interior line's run-blocking, but the tackles were our Achilles' heel in the run game last season, just like they were in the passing game.

The argument that Calvin Johnson doesn't get the ball enough is ridiculous. He got thrown at 151 times last season, fifth-most in the NFL (behind Brandon Marshall, Andre Johnson, Dwayne Bowe, and Larry Fitzgerald.) He wasn't a distant fifth, either: just 7 more passes would have made Johnson third in the league in targets. Even if you allow that premise for the sake of argument, the conclusion doesn't follow: if Johnson moved to a better offense, he'd probably get the ball LESS. The two examples in the article (the Saints and the Patriots) are both highly productive offenses, but that doesn't mean Johnson would be more productive in them. Both teams have good quarterbacks, sure, but they also have other good receivers. You can't make the argument that Johnson would get targeted on a larger percentage of passing plays if he were lining up opposite Randy Moss or Marques Colston than he will opposite Bryant Johnson/Ronald Curry. Honestly, the best thing for Johnson's statistics is to stay in an offense where he's the only option. Culpepper and Stafford will force the ball to him, and he'll get all the targets he could ever want. The point about Asomugha isn't much better: he, of all people, doesn't need help over the top. Oakland has done just fine leaving him to cover one-on-one without safety help. In fact, if you have the best corner in the NFL, a guy who shuts down his side of the field all by himself, and you're rolling safeties to his side, then you're wasting your safeties. The point that the author should have made about Nnamdi is that the Raiders need to use him as a matchup corner: they keep him on the left side no matter what, which means opposing offenses can just line up their best WR on the right. But that's not a way to make Nnamdi better, it's a way to make the Raiders' defense better. The part about Tyler Thigpen is a LITTLE more interesting. Thigpen did put up some decent numbers running a spread offense out of the Pistol set in Kansas City last season, but the Chiefs basically installed that offense out of necessity, in order to compensate for Thigpen's poor accuracy and inability to play from under center. Thigpen is not a starting-caliber QB for any existing NFL offense, simply because no NFL team runs a spread like the Chiefs did last season. The Chiefs don't even run that offense any more; their brass had a meeting to discuss whether they wanted to keep Thigpen and stick with the spread or return to a more traditional offense, which would entail getting a new QB. They chose the latter and acquired Matt Cassel. If some hypothetical team is going to adopt a Pistol or Shotgun spread as their base offense, however, then maybe you can talk about Thigpen as a starter. Even then, he wouldn't be great...if you extrapolate his numbers as a starter in that offense over a full 16 games, you get this stat line: 300 completions on 547 attempts (54.8%) for 3409 yards (6.3 YPA), 25 touchdowns, 16 interceptions, 76.8 passer rating Thigpen still has problems, even in a spread offense. He forces the ball into coverage constantly, he fumbles far too often, and last season he struggled to make his reads if Tony Gonzalez wasn't open. At the end of the day, it's hard to say he should move to another team: he's not going to find another NFL franchise willing to run the gimmick offense that best compensates for his considerable shortcomings, much less one with a Hall of Fame TE and a top-5 wide receiver.

I think it's pretty awesome that he's ahead of McBride, to be honest. McBride has been a very competent backup/dime back in his time here, and I get the sense that the coaching staff likes him a lot. I know our depth chart doesn't include the nickel, since Manning is still listed as a safety, but here's one other thing: if Tillman or Vasher goes down, there's no way they're moving Manning out to corner. That means Bowman would be first in line for playing time if one of the starters gets hurt.

Yeah, the whole interior of the Bears' line did very well. I don't know how much of that was due to the obvious liabilities at tackle, though. I mean, why try to test Olin Kreutz when you can just run around Tait or shove St. Clair out of the way? Looking at Beekman's numbers, though, I don't know why they're trying to replace him. It seems like our best line, with the pieces we have now, would be Pace-Beekman-Kreutz-Omiyale/Garza-Williams/Shaffer. I guess Omiyale might offer better run-blocking than Beekman, who never really bulldozed anybody last season. Still, it seems like the answer would be to get the two of them on the field at the same time.

I thought I'd throw my two cents in, point-by-point: I — Who’s going to catch Cutler’s passes? Bears head coach Lovie Smith continues to say with a straight face that Hester is a “legitimate No. 1 receiver,” but the consensus among daily team observers is that Hester remains a major work in progress. Although he did make some legitimate strides down the stretch last season, Hester’s continuing development could be hindered by a mostly unproven supporting cast, led by second-year pro Earl Bennett. Bennett looks a lot better, but his inability as a third-round rookie to make any kind of an impact at the team’s weakest position last season remains cause for concern. Rookies Juaquin Iglesias and Johnny Knox and veteran Rashied Davis complete a unit that could be keeping Angelo awake well into the night, as he seriously ponders the possibility of adding ex-Giant Plaxico Burress and his impressive 15.5 yards-per-catch career to the mix, the obvious risks nothwithstanding. Valid point as far as Hester goes. Most teams wouldn't be comfortable going into the season with a #1 guy who only caught 51 passes for 665 yards the year prior. However, there's reason to believe Hester will be much better this year, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him hit 900 yards. Bennett can't be judged by his zero receptions, since he only got targeted on one pass. The main thing, though, is the way the offense is going to be structured. Trent Green was on ESPN talking about the Bears, and he basically said he thought Greg Olsen was going to be their real #1 receiver. He compared the situation in Chicago to his old teams in Kansas City, and said Tony Gonzalez was the centerpiece of their passing game, and their receivers were all just complementary pieces. I think he's right that the Bears will follow a similar formula, at least for this year. At the end of the day, I think Turner will be able to cover for Hester and Bennett just fine until they come into their own. II — Safety issues hard to ignore. Start with the fact that the Bears’ most experienced safety by a wide margin is newcomer Josh Bullocks, who lost his starting role in New Orleans last season and was so shaky that he showed up on a YouTube clip demonstrating how not to play the position. The Bears are hoping Corey Graham can make a successful conversion from cornerback to free safety, where his physical style could be well-suited for the position, but such experimentation hardly creates a comfort zone. It’s also worth noting that ’08 starting SS Kevin Payne is coming off shoulder surgery. But perhaps the biggest concern is the leadership at the position, which will be seriously diminished by the departure of Mike Brown, who has moved on to Kansas City. Yes, Brown had big problems staying healthy, but he was almost always effective when he was able to play. Another valid point. Corey Graham's transition to safety hasn't gone that smoothly so far, and he hasn't gotten as many reps at the position as you'd like, since he was filling in for Manning at nickel and Tillman at corner. Bullocks is a rebuilding project, and Payne has his weaknesses (poor angles, wrapping up) even when he's not hurt. Steltz looked good last season, but he seems like he'd be stretched at FS, due to his lack of range. From an ability standpoint, the best bet for the Bears might be Graham/Steltz at FS/SS, but that's counting on a big step up from both guys. III — D-line brittle in the middle. Even Rod Marinelli, the undisputed dean of D-line coaches, could be challenged to the max by a pair of injury-plagued starting tackles — Tommie Harris and Dusty Dvoracek — who are being counted on to exert a great deal more interior pressure up front than they did last season, when the Bears ranked 29th in QB sack percentage. A free-flowing rotation inside, including underrated Anthony Adams, promising second-year pro Marcus Harrison and rookie Jarron Gilbert, could help preserve Harris, whose left knee hasn’t been right since he suffered a grade-2 MCL sprain in his left knee in Week Three two seasons ago, and Dvoracek, who has been sidelined with injuries more often than not in his three years at the pro level. Calling Dusty a starting tackle is ridiculous. He lost his job to Anthony Adams last season, and judging from Adams' play as a starter, there's no reason to think Dusty can win it back. With the way Marinelli's been talking up Marcus Harrison, Dusty's looking like a third-string tackle at best. I'm thinking that our rotation is likely to be Adams/Harrison and Harris/Gilbert with Idonije rotating inside sometimes; I don't think you can characterize that group as "brittle." IV — Potential chaos on the corners. The Bears are guaranteed to be nothing more than a passing fancy in ’09 if their pass defense performs as sloppily as it did last season, when it routinely gave up inside position on slant patterns and kept leaving a ridiculous amount of cushion for opposing receivers at the worst possible times. Former Pro Bowler Nate Vasher has greatly underachieved since signing a five-year, $28 million deal before the ’07 season, playing in only 12 of 32 games and intercepting only two passes. He says he’s feeling much healthier, but that remains to be seen. Same goes for fellow starting CB Charles Tillman, who was plagued by injuries to both shoulders last season and was responsible for perhaps the ’08 defense’s low point, when he allowed Bernard Berrian’s 99-yard TD reception in a 34-14 prime-time loss to the Vikings. This is a legitimate problem. Both our starting corners have had major injury problems, and Tampa 2 corners get exposed to a lot more contact than most. Our #3 corner, according to the reports from OTAs, is Zack Bowman, who's had a string of season-ending injuries going back to junior college. Our nickel back, Danieal Manning, was dinged up and had to sit out OTAs. Corey Graham was both physical and pretty durable, but he's been moved to safety, leaving DJ Moore and Trumaine McBride as the only corners without some kind of injury problems. We've got a ton of talent at corner, but we'll be relying on at least some of them staying healthy. V — Perilous protection. Cutler’s excellent escapability — he was sacked only 11 times last season — will make him much less of a sack target than Kyle Orton, but the starting tackles in front of him come equipped with noteworthy issues. Granted, OLT Orlando Pace is a distinguished seven-time Pro Bowler who sticks out like the Sears Tower. But he’s also 33 years old and has missed 25 games over the past three seasons due to assorted injuries. At right tackle, former first-round draft pick Chris Williams remains an unproven commodity, having seen limited action in his rookie campaign after suffering a back injury on the second day of training camp that eventually required surgery. Our protection will be an upgrade over last year's. Period. It will probably not be as good as Cutler's was in Denver, but it won't be the train wreck we saw last year, when we had an soon-to-be-retired John Tait playing right tackle and a career backup protecting Orton's blind side. Even if Williams struggles badly, Shaffer would be an upgrade over Tait's performance from last year, and Pace is a HUGE upgrade from St. Clair. Our o-line may not be elite, but it will be more than serviceable. VI — Show me the backups. Smith is going to have to pray for the same kind of good luck enjoyed by his good buddy Dungy, who never was forced to get by without Peyton Manning for an extended period of time. Is Smith really serious when he says he would be comfortable with either Brett Basanez or Caleb Hanie taking over under center if, God forbid, Cutler got cut down even for a few games? Those guys make the Cubs’ bullpen look worthy of Cooperstown. This has been said in a million places, but almost every team in the NFL is screwed if their starting QB goes down. Would I be more comfortable if we had a veteran backup? Sure. But suppose we ditch Basanez and bring back Brian Griese or somebody...if Cutler goes down, we're still up a creek. The teams that can handle losing a starting QB are the very few that have two guys capable of starting, like the Patriots from last season. And like we saw with Cassel this offseason, starting-quality backups don't stay backups for very long.

Found this on another forum - a list of starting offensive linemen around the league and the number of sacks they allowed. Linemen get assessed 0.5 either for allowing an assisted sack on a solo block or allowing a solo sack as half of a double-team block. They get assessed 0.25 for allowing an assisted sack as half of a double-team. 2008 Bears players are in bold. New players for 2009 are in italics, although Chris Williams and Frank Omiyale are omitted, since neither had enough starts in 2008 to make the list. LT 1. Ryan Clady (Broncos) 0.5 sacks allowed (16 starts) 2. Michael Roos (Titans) 1.0 sacks allowed (16 starts) *PRO-BOWL* 3. Tra Thomas (Eagles) 2.0 sacks allowed (16 starts) 3. Orlando Pace (Rams) 2.0 sacks allowed (14 starts) 5. Jake Long (Dolphins) 2.5 sacks allowed (16 starts) 6. Jordan Gross (Panthers) 3.0 sacks allowed (15 starts) *PRO-BOWL* 6. Jammal Brown (Saints) 3.0 sacks allowed (15 starts) 6. Jared Gaither (Ravens) 3.0 sacks allowed (15 starts) 6. Marcus McNeill (Chargers) 3.0 sacks allowed (14 starts) 6. Tony Ugoh (Colts) 3.0 sacks allowed (12 starts) 6. Chris Samuels (Redskins) 3.0 sacks allowed (12 starts) *PRO-BOWL* 6. Todd Weiner (Falcons) 3.0 sacks allowed (11 starts) 13. Walter Jones (Seahawks) 3.5 sacks allowed (12 starts) *PRO-BOWL* 14. D’Brickashaw Ferguson (Jets) 4.0 sacks allowed (16 starts) 14. Bryant McKinnie (Vikings) 4.0 sacks allowed (12 starts) 14. Max Starks (Steelers) 4.0 sacks allowed (11 starts) 17. Joe Thomas (Browns) 4.5 sacks allowed (16 starts) *PRO-BOWL* 17. Branden Albert (Cheifs) 4.5 sacks allowed (15 starts) 19. Levi Brown (Bengals) 5.5 sacks allowed (11 starts) 20. Mike Gandy (Cardinals) 6.25 sacks allowed (16 starts) 21. David Diehl (Giants) 6.5 sacks allowed (16 starts) 22. Flozell Adams (Cowboys) 7.25 sacks allowed (16 starts) 23. Khalif Barnes (Jags) 7.5 sacks allowed (16 starts) 23. Matt Light (Pats) 7.5 sacks allowed (16 starts) 23. Chad Clifton (Packers) 7.5 sacks allowed (15 starts) 23. Kwame Harris (Raiders) 7.5 sacks allowed (11 starts) 27. Joe Staley (49ers) 8.5 sacks allowed (16 starts) 28. Donald Penn (Bucs) 8.5 sacks allowed (16 starts) 29. Jeff Backus (Lions) 9.25 sacks allowed (16 starts) 30. John St. Clair (Bears) 9.75 sacks allowed (16 starts) 31. Duane Brown (Texans) 11.5 sacks allowed (16 starts) 31. Jason Peters (Bills) 11.5 sacks allowed (13 starts) *PRO-BOWL* LG 1. Kris Dielman (Chargers) 0 sacks allowed (16 starts) *PRO-BOWL* 1. Charlie Johnson (Colts) 0 sacks allowed (16 starts) 1. David Baas (49ers) 0 sacks allowed (9 starts) 4. Carl Nicks (Saints) 0.5 sacks allowed (13 starts) 5. Todd Herremans (Eagles) 0.75 sacks allowed (15 starts) 6. Brian Waters (Chiefs) 1.0 sacks allowed (16 starts) *PRO-BOWL* 7. Josh Beekman (Bears) 1.25 sacks allowed (16 starts) 8. Robert Gallery (Raiders) 1.75 sacks allowed (16 starts) 8. Reggie Wells (Cardinals) 1.75 sacks allowed (16 starts) 10. Eugene Amano (Titans) 2.0 sacks allowed (16 starts) 10. Chris Chester (Ravens) 2.0 sacks allowed (11 starts) 12. Chester Pitts (Texans) 2.5 sacks allowed (16 starts) 12. Ben Hamilton (Broncos) 2.5 sacks allowed (16 starts) 12. Travelle Wharton (Panthers) 2.5 sacks allowed (14 starts) 12. Jacob Bell (Rams) 2.5 sacks allowed (13 starts) 12. Jeff Smiley (Dolphins) 2.5 sacks allowed (12 starts) 17. Rich Seubert (Giants) 3.0 sacks allowed (16 starts) 17. Pete Kendall (Redskins) 3.0 sacks allowed (16 starts) 17. Justin Blalock (Falcons) 3.0 sacks allowed (16 starts) 27. Eric Steinbach (Browns) 3.0 sacks allowed (14 starts) 21. Floyd Womack (Seahawks) 3.5 sacks allowed (14 starts) 22. Edwin Mulitalo (Lions) 4.25 sacks allowed (11 starts) 23. Arron Sears (Bucs) 4.5 sacks allowed (15 starts) 23. Uche Nwaneri (Jags) 4.5 sacks allowed (15 starts) 23. Cory Procter (Cowboys) 4.5 sacks allowed (11 starts) 26. Logan Mankins (Pats) 5.0 sacks allowed (16 starts) 26. Andrew Whitworth (Bengals) 5.0 sacks allowed (10 starts) 28. Daryn Colledge (Packers) 6.0 sacks allowed (16 starts) 29. Steve Hutchinson (Vikings) 7.0 sacks allowed (16 starts) *PRO-BOWL* 29. Alan Faneca (Jets) 7.0 sacks allowed (16 starts) *PRO-BOWL* 31. Chris Kemoeatu (Steelers) 7.5 sacks allowed (16 starts) 32. Derrick Dockery (Bills) 8.25 sacks allowed (16 starts) C 1. Olin Kreutz (Bears) 0 sacks allowed (16 starts) 1. Todd McClure (Falcons) 0 sacks allowed (16 starts) 1. Chris Myers (Texans) 0 sacks allowed (16 starts) 1. Kevin Mawae (Titans) 0 sacks allowed (15 starts) *PRO-BOWL* 1. Ryan Kalil (Panthers) 0 sacks allowed (12 starts) 6. Brad Meester (Jags) 0.25 sacks allowed (10 starts) 7. Lyle Sendlein (Cardinals) 0.5 sacks allowed (16 starts) 8. Duke Preston (Bills) 0.75 sacks allowed (11 starts) 9. Casey Wiegmann (Broncos) 1.0 sacks allowed (16 starts) 9. Jeff Faine (Bucs) 1.0 sacks allowed (16 starts) 9. Jonathan Goodwin (Saints) 1.0 sacks allowed (13 starts) 12. Nick Mangold (Jets) 2.0 sacks allowed (16 starts) *PRO-BOWL* 12. Andre Gurode (Cowboys) 2.0 sacks allowed (16 starts) *PRO-BOWL* 12. Shaun O’Hara (Giants) 2.0 sacks allowed (16 starts) *PRO-BOWL* 12. Matt Birk (Vikings) 2.0 sacks allowed (16 starts) 12. Jeff Saturday (Colts) 2.0 sacks allowed (12 starts) 12. Dominic Raiola (Lions) 2.0 sacks allowed (12 starts) 12. Nick Leckey (Rams) 2.0 sacks allowed (10 starts) 19. Jason Brown (Ravens) 2.25 sacks allowed (16 starts) 19. Jamaal Jackson (Eagles) 2.25 sacks allowed (16 starts) 21. Hank Fraley (Browns) 2.5 sacks allowed (16 starts) 21. Nick Hardwick (Chargers) 2.5 sacks allowed (13 starts) 21. Jake Grove (Raiders) 2.5 sacks allowed (12 starts) 21. Chris Spencer (Seahawks) 2.5 sacks allowed (11 starts) 25. Rudy Niswanger (Chiefs) 3.5 sacks allowed (15 starts) 25. Scott Wells (Packers) 3.5 sacks allowed (13 starts) 27. Eric Heitmann (49ers) 4.0 sacks allowed (16 starts) 27. Eric Ghaiciuc (Bengals) 4.0 sacks allowed (16 starts) 29. Samson Satele (Dolphins) 4.5 sacks allowed (16 starts) 29. Dan Koppen (Pats) 4.5 sacks allowed (16 starts) 31. Casey Rabach (Redskins) 5.5 sacks allowed (16 starts) 32. Justin Harwig (Steelers) 6.5 sacks allowed (16 starts) RG 1. Chris Kuper (Broncos) 0 sacks allowed (16 starts) 2. Jake Scott (Titans) 0.5 sacks allowed (16 starts) 2. Max Jean-Gilles (Eagles) 0.5 sacks allowed (10 starts) 4. Chris Snee (Giants) 1.0 sacks allowed (16 starts)*PRO-BOWL* 4. Harvey Dahl (Falcons) 1.0 sacks allowed (16 starts) 4. Jason Spitz (Packers) 1.0 sacks allowed (16 starts) 4. Ikechuku Ndukwe (Dolphins) 1.0 sacks allowed (15 starts) 4. Brad Butler (Bills) 1.0 sacks allowed (13 starts) 4. Davin Joseph (Bucs) 1.0 sacks allowed (12 starts) 4. Adrian Jones (Chiefs) 1.0 sacks allowed (10 starts) 11. Rex Hadnot (Browns) 1.5 sacks allowed (15 starts) 12. Deuce Lutui (Cardinals) 2.0 sacks allowed (16 starts) 12. Brandon Moore (Jets) 2.0 sacks allowed (16 starts) 12. Mike Brisiel (Texans) 2.0 sacks allowed (16 starts) …ERFA 12. Jahri Evans (Saints) 2.0 sacks allowed (16 starts) …RFA 12. Mike Pollak (Colts) 2.0 sacks allowed (13 starts) 12. Stephen Neal (Pats) 2.0 sacks allowed (9 starts) 18. Roberto Garza (Bears) 2.5 sacks allowed (16 starts) 19. Randy Thomas (Redskins) 4.0 sacks allowed (16 starts) 19. Robbie Williams (Bengals) 4.0 sacks allowed (16 starts) 19. Cooper Carlisle (Raiders) 4.0 sacks allowed (15 starts) 19. Stephen Peterman (Lions) 4.0 sacks allowed (14 starts) 19. Tony Wragge (49ers) 4.0 sacks allowed (10 starts) …RFA 24. Leonard Davis (Cowboys) 4.5 sacks allowed (16 starts) *PRO-BOWL* 24. Mike Goff (Chargers) 4.5 sacks allowed (16 starts) 26. Darnell Stapleton (Steelers) 5.0 sacks allowed (12 starts) 27. Ben Grubbs (Ravens) 6.5 sacks allowed (16 starts) 27. Richie Incognito (Rams) 6.5 sacks allowed (15 starts) 29. Dennis Norman (Jags) 7.25 sacks allowed (14 starts) 30. Anthony Herrera (Vikings) 7.5 sacks allowed (16 starts) RT 1. Ryan Diem (Colts) 1.5 sacks allowed (16 starts) 1. Jon Stinchcomb (Saints) 1.5 sacks allowed (16 starts) 1. Ray Willis (Seahawks) 1.5 sacks allowed (10 starts) 4. David Stewart (Titans) 2.0 sacks allowed (16 starts) 4. Mark Tauscher (Packers) 2.0 sacks allowed (13 starts) 6. Ryan Harris (Broncos) 2.5 sacks allowed (16 starts) 6. Tyson Clabo (Falcons) 2.5 sacks allowed (16 starts) 8. Langston Walker (Bills) 3.0 sacks allowed (16 starts) 8. Nick Kaczur (Pats) 3.0 sacks allowed (14 starts) 10. Willie Anderson (Ravens) 3.5 sacks allowed (11 starts) 11. Kareem McKenzie (Giants) 4.5 sacks allowed (16 starts) 11. Vernon Carey (Dolphins) 4.5 sacks allowed (16 starts) 11. Kevin Shaffer (Browns) 4.5 sacks allowed (15 starts) 14. Jeff Otah (Panthers) 5.0 sacks allowed (12 starts) 15. Tony Pashos (Jags) 5.5 sacks allowed (16 starts) 15. Marc Colombo (Cowboys) 5.5 sacks allowed (16 starts) 17. Willie Colon (Steelers) 5.75 sacks allowed (16 starts) …RFA 18. John Tait (Bears) 6.0 sacks allowed (16 starts) 18. Jeremy Trueblood (Bucs) 6.0 sacks allowed (16 starts) 18. Ryan Cook (Vikings) 6.0 sacks allowed (14 starts) 18. Gosder Cherilus (Lions) 6.0 sacks allowed (13 starts) 22. Damien Woody (Jets) 6.5 sacks allowed (16 starts) 22. Jeromey Clary (Chargers) 6.5 sacks allowed (16 starts) 22. Jon Jansen (Redskins) 6.5 sacks allowed (11 starts) 25. Jon Runyan (Eagles) 7.0 sacks allowed (16 starts) 25. Damion McIntosh (Chiefs) 7.0 sacks allowed (16 starts) 27. Cornell Green (Raiders) 7.5 sacks allowed (16 starts) 27. Alex Barron (Rams) 7.5 sacks allowed (15 starts) 29. Eric Winston (Texans) 8.0 sacks allowed (16 starts) 30. Stacy Andrews (Bengals) 9.5 sacks allowed (15 starts) 31. Adam Snyder (49ers) 9.5 sacks allowed (13 starts) 32. Levi Brown (Cardinals) 11.0 sacks allowed (16 starts) What do you guys think? I think it's fair to say we significantly upgraded the two worst spots on the line, even if you don't factor in Chris Williams.

I'll agree with you here. Mike Brown has been on the way out for a while. We drafted Danieal Manning to be his eventual replacement back in 2006; that didn't work out, but it's clear that Angelo and Lovie started looking for a successor to Brown several years ago. It's awesome that we got one last good season out of him, and it's hard for me to believe that he wouldn't offer some value as a backup, but I understand why they couldn't start him any more. I think that the writing was probably on the wall for Mike, even had the Bears made it to the playoffs last season. I definitely agree with the OP that most of the other changes wouldn't have happened had the Bears made it to the postseason. I think Orton would have kept his job as the starter, even with Cutler available for trade. Babich, much to the team's detriment, probably would have kept defensive playcalling responsibilities. I'm not sure we would have pursued a veteran wideout, however. Jerry's on record saying that we were going to go after a receiver in the first round had we not sent that pick to get Cutler. I think that if the Bears had made the playoffs last season, we'd probably be looking at Hakeem Nicks or Kenny Britt lining up opposite Devin Hester this year.

I had no idea Bowman was all the way up to the 3rd corner position, that's awesome. I know the Bears' 3rd CB is more like the 4th CB on other teams, since Manning is entrenched at nickel back, but that's still great news for Bowman. I feel really good about him and DJ Moore from a talent perspective: if those two pan out and Bowman can stop getting injured, we'll be set at corner for a long, long time.

Well, just to play devil's advocate, I think Goodell's probably acting preemptively because of Burress' legal team. Burress' lawyers are trying to exploit the fact that Goodell usually waits for a conviction. They've been pretty open about trying to get Burress' trial delayed long enough for him to play this season - that kind of implies that they're banking on Goodell having to wait until after the trial to issue a suspension. From Goodell's perspective, that probably looks like an end-run around league discipline in 2009. I'm not trying to take Goodell's side, necessarily, I just think this move was pretty inevitable. Plax should have snapped up the plea deal over the summer, expressed regret to the commissioner, and taken his 4-game or 6-game suspension. This postponement strategy is a bad one.