Evaluation is even hard for experts whose jobs are on the line for their choices.
Only 59% of the first round become starters. that's a high miss rate. 29% are busts.
At the SB this year there were 38 UDFAs on the the two teams rosters.
the point is it's hard to know where the players are coming from but the bottom line is evaluating talent.
lets look at Paces drafts
2015
White-- has been injured but still has #1 WR traits. If he stays healthy we will know this answer.
Goldman-- big time player with some injury issues
Grasu-- may still be OC of this football team
Langford-- an NFL player but is not a star
Amos-- an average SS but not a bust by anyones opinion
Fabujuis-- a miss
2016
Floyd-- looks like a potential star
Whitehair-- stud OL guy
Bullard-- jury is still out, that is why you cant judge a player in his first year, they develop at different paces.
Kwaitkoski-- I would have to stay future start in the middle
Bush-- jury is still out but has some traits
D. Hall- now becoming a FS has great upside
Howard- the second best RB in the 5th round (he shoots and he scores)
Houston-Carlson-- probably just a STs guy but we actually dont have this answer yet.
2017
Tribusky-- compared to Matthew Stafford- if it turns out that way, a huge pick
Shaleen-- compared to Jason Witten-- I would be satisfied with that
Jackson-- a potenial steal in this years draft if he gets back to his 2015 level of play
Cohen-- a Sporles clone
Morgan-- a player they spent a week with, I would say he is a potential starter at OG.
Here is some UDFAs he has brought in
Roberson-Harris-- the jury is still out but has traits
Braunecker-- may not be a starter but a competitive backup- jury still out
Callahan-- a NB that can play
Glenn-- back and forth off the roster but still may be able to stike
Medidith-- a #2 WR a major hit
Timu-- a competent backup
By looking at this list, I would say he can evaluate talent, but we wont know for at least one more year.
We dont know where the talent will come from but I would say he will hit on two out of three on the players he choose.
Here is some FAs he hit on
McPhee- aside from injuries he can play
2016
Danny Trevathan ILB
Josh Sitton G 30
Bobby Massie RT
Jerrell Freeman ILB 30
Tracy Porter CB
Akiem Hicks DE
Zach Miller TE 32
Sherrick McManis CB
Mitch Unrein DT
Brian Hoyer QB
Ted Larsen G 29 -
Manuel Ramirez G
Omar Bolden FS
Sam Acho OLB
Chris Prosinski
By that list I would say he had a lot more hits than misses at good value
2017
Mike Glennon QB
Dion Sims TE 26
Marcus Cooper CB
Quintin Demps SS
Markus Wheaton WR
Prince Amukamara CB
Mark Sanchez QB
Kendall Wright WR
Tom Compton T
Christian Jones ILB
C.J. Wilson DE 30
Connor Barth K
John Jenkins DT
Johnthan Banks CB
Sam Acho OLB
Deonte Thompson
Benny Cunningham RB
Chris Prosinski
We wont know until the end of this year but i would say we upgraded our talent with these picks at a good value.
I think the team he is building is going to be very good but is still a year or maybe two away from being a very good team
QBs Glennon-Tribuski-Sanchez I would have to say this is a huge upgrade with the possibility of being great.
RBs Howard- Langford-Cohen-Cunningham I think this is a very exicting group
WRs White-Wright-Wheaton-Merideth-Randle-Braverman I would say this group could turn out to be very good
TEs Shaleen-Sims-Brown-Miller-Baunecker this group could turn out to be very good
OL Sitton-Long-Whitehair-Grasu-Morgan-Compton-Massie-Kush-Leno I think this is one of the team strengths
DL- Hicks-Goldman-Bullard-Unrien-Jenkins- I see a lot of potenial here with a couple of stars ( R-Harris has been beefing up and I see him becoming a 5T)
LBers Floyd-Acho-Young-Anderson-Timu-Freeman-Trevathan-Kithwatoski-McPhee-Jones this a very good looking group
CBs Fuller-Callahan-Porter-Akumurimra-Banks-Baushy-Cooper-LeBlanc-McMannis-Webb We are throwing a lot of darts at this position and I will bet it turns out to be very good.
Ss Amos-Bush-Jackson-Demps-D. Hall-Jones-Quarty-Proniski I see a proming ugrade in this area.
Our team has been totally rebuilt and still may need a year or two to show its potential.
I think Pace has put this roster in a position to start winning this year. Until it gets all thrown together, we have a hard time seeing it from this side of the fence.
There will be a lot of good hits and some that dont work out but I am very optimistic.
We are building a power running team with a west coast flavor
Glennon and Tribuski we have two darts at board and could hit on both of them
White-Merideth-Wright-Wheation, I think this group surprises us.
TEs- totally upgrades our running game and red zone scoring, this could be one of our stengths
RB- We have Howard with Langford backing him up, also Cunningham and Cohen as 3rd down backs , this could be a very exciting offense if Cohen turns into Sporles
OL this is going to be one of our strengths and if Morgan is sneaky good with Grasu being solid, I can see us moving Whitehair out to Lenos spot.
Front 7-- Hicks-Goldman-McPhee-Freeman-Trevathan-Floyd all star types Young-Bullard-Robnson-Harris---Jenkins- Barring injuries I think our D arrives, top 8
Backside- I think Cooper-Demps-Jackson-D. Hall-Prince A-Callahan-LeBlanc-Banks-Amos completes our D. turns out well.
Pace has a plan and I think this year this plan comes together.
Surprises this year:
Bullard takes a huge step forward
Cooper and Jackson become playmakers
Robinson-Harris shows some pass rushing skills
Floyd gets 12 to 14 sacks this year
McPhee plays less and still gets 10 sacks
Hicks and Goldman have 14 sacks between them.
Offense becomes a power team with 2 TEs sets . White and Merideth shine, TE becomes a strength. Howard star and Cohen turns into Sproles.
8 to 10 wins, but remember I am an optimist.