DABEARSDABOMB

I think the reality is - make reads and executing the offense in rhythm, that isn't what makes a QB great. But you have to have a basic level of doing it. Drew Brees and Tom Brady were the guys who were so masterful that they made it that. However, you have to be proficient at it - but what makes you great in today's NFL seems to be - being proficient at it while being able to make plays where plays aren't there. Josh Allen - He is solid on script and in pocket - but he is lethal at making something out of nothing and going big game hunting. You give him extended time on the occasional play - he'll make you pay - including when you think you got him. Multiplier. Mahomes - Again - he's become pretty good in the pocket - and he was always solid - but again, when he gets extended time - he makes teams pay. Multiplier.

I think I said last year QB's would go early and often too. I guarantee the same will happen this year. You might get some misinformation, but closer and closer to the draft - QB will be at the top and barring some significant injury - it is pretty clear there are 3 that stand above all and a possibility a 4th jumps into that mix. I do agree there could be some people who put up ridiculous combines or something else and jump there way into the back end of the top 10 - but this is a really strong draft and a number of these guys have been hyped for a long time (in particular Maye & Williams). They have the fortune or unfortune of being assessed for forever. Like Peyton Manning did (NOT SAYING THEY ARE THEM), but people forget all the chatter, do you take Ryan Leaf over Peyton, etc. It's happened with everyone. Andrew Luck's final year wasn't as good....Deshaun Watson people I think discounted him for how good he was (and again - he went off the rails - but his first few years were really really good).

Let me put stats out there: Bagent's sack percentage on drop-backs: 3.4% Fields sack percentage on drop-backs: 10.6%

I think Wright & Jenkins are above average. I think Davis is average and Jones is average / okay. Center is awful. Caveat being Wright is a rookie so he'll have his misse(s). So I don't think the Bears oline is a dumpster fire. Moore & Kmet are both good players at their position. Mooney was a 1K receiver with 3 straight good years in Chicago (not saying he played great this year by the way). How do I think about the fact that the Bears back-up QB's have produced a lot less sacks. Or look at his time at OSU - the QB's book-ended around him all got sacked a heck of a lot less.

Caleb has never said that he won't play with the Bears. In fact, he has liked numerous quotes about how dangerous he would be with DJ Moore. I think any QB has bad games, look at Drake Maye's bad games or go back and look at some games Jayden had over the years. I have watched a ton of Caleb on the west coast - he has had to know he needs to score 45 points to win for the past two years. His oline hasn't been good, this past year his receiver(s) weren't great, and he still was pretty spectacular. Did his numbers take a small step back, sure. But he played hard. Now if the deep intel says he is a primadonna and a poor leader - I don't care what his football skills say, I'm not taking them. Also remember - information gets put out for a reason. I guarantee Washington or another team is going to be planting all kinds of negative noise to see if any of it can create a miniscule chance that it impacts the Bears decision.

I agree. I go back to - Caleb's film makes him a clear cut #1 in my opinion. He has his warts - he is a big game hunter, but he can throw guys open, etc, and he can make quick reads and target middle of the field, etc. He can also use his feet to create big game passing plays or be efficient in a scramble...but at all times his focus is on using his arm as a weapon and those eyes are everywhere. Sometimes that means he gets a little reckless and gives up on an easy play to go big game hunting - but he is manipulating people with his eyes and making reads (that is where Fields goes bust). He also will fumble too much - but I fully believe with NFL coaching and more focus, you can help coach the ball security and being more in rhythm, but you also can't ignore the fact that you will get plenty of good that will go with some of the bad (ala Mahomes or Favre or Josh Allen). His ability to make wtf plays with his arm (and in this case - incredible wtf plays) is also stellar. The only reason I'm not drafting Caleb - is if through deep interviews - there are concerns of who is his, whether work ethic, leadership, etc. If that is a problem - than that is a major red flag for QB. But on the field - yeah - he's as no brainer as it gets in my mind.

Draft Strategy: Bears know they need to develop a real offense to be sustainable. Poles know(s) it takes special talent to get there. He can see that as strong of a leader as Field(s) is - that his issues are deeper than just having a lousy QB and knows this is a once in a generation chance in front of him. 1st Round: Draft Caleb @ 1 Draft Odunze @ 9 Commentary: I should give back drop that I expect the top 3 picks to be QB's (Caleb/Maye/Daniels - in whatever order they appear). When I look at the picks from 4-8, I think Poles will want to add another multiplier to the offense with the next pick. When I look at best available talent - I think you have 3 legitimate top 10 wideouts (MHJ, Rome Odunze, Naybors) and I think you have 2 top 10 LT's (ND & PSU guy). On the Defensive front - as of now - there are 2 borderline top 10 guys, but no slam dunk guy (Verse / Turner). My hope is with Poles addressing QB -> he uses other pick on offense, whether LT or WR. My impression is he's happy with where Jones is, so I think he would prefer to address wideout in the draft vs. taking an LT. This is not to say he won't address interior line in the draft (or free agency), I suspect he will. So when I break this down - my view is for the Bears to have a chance at one of the 3 wideouts - you need 3 QB's to go off the board before pick 9 (a 4th going would be even better - but I don't see 4 going in Top 10 - unless Atlanta falls in love with JJ McCarthy or Penix). They will need the 2 LT's to be drafted, 2 WR's I see for sure being gone, and you need at least one defensive player selected (Verse or Dallas Turner or a surprise). I think worse case scenario for the Bears is - you take your QB at the top, all 3 WR's are of the board, & both LT's are off the board - leaving you looking at taking the best edge player at 9. I say that in the sense that this doesn't seem like a year where you have a no brainer edge player, not that the Bears don't have a need at this spot. But if this works out - this could be where the Bears actually slide back down a few slides - move into the mid teens.

PFF Data (I get it - PFF) - Sorted for Fields: Starting on Right Side: Basically - both our QB and Oline are pretty-bad. So Non-QB pressure we rate poorly, but he is also really poor and creates his own "pressure". Basically 7th worse in the league (is where Fields is) where as the oline is 9th worse. yet the % that is OL responsibility is very favorable (how does that add up with being really bad at Non QB pressures). The bright side is our LG (Jenkins) and RT (Wright) are good...the LT and RG are mediocre and center is bad (passes my eye test). The % other responsibility is pretty massive - does that mean our RB's are terrible blockers or is that like not being set-up appropriately? Looking at the Left: Fields is good at maximizing time on the scramble - the next question is how effective is he actually making plays on the scramble (relative to expectation). Clearly in side the pocket he is bad and this also highlights he does not throw into tight coverage. On one hand - that should be good - fewer picks, downfall is, to win in this league you got to throw guys open and have conviction making tight window throws. Fields clearly doesn't have it. And from an expected completion percentage - he flat out executes poorly. Ranking 45th of QB's which is clearly AWFUL. Overall: I won't pretend to understand these metrics and have plenty of questions as outlined above. But most of this data backs my eye test and tells me Fields just isn't a good QB (when I say QB - I'm not saying scrambler and athlete), I am saying good QB. Those things are nice - but 3 years in the league and the things that differentiate you most as a QB he is poor at. It is pretty evident in my mind Bears are headed down a path where they are taking a QB with one of their 1st picks.

Peters, Niners Asst GM, is getting the Washington job.

In my mind both have better track records than Getsy. I always thought Getsy was a WEAK hire.

I like both candidates they started with. Kubiak is really intriguing…if nothing else on name alone…plus I love the shanny system/tree.

Seems like he'll get a new gig. Will be curious to see who Bears replace him with. He was a tremendous hire and will be a big loss (albeit the draft pick compensation for losing him will be nice too). Latest is he is down to the final 2 with Washington. I haven't heard whether he is in the running with Carolina, New England, San Diego, or Oakland. Or am I mistaken and Oakland has a GM? Are there any other teams I'm leaving out? Certainly seems unlikely with that many GM jobs, that the Bears won't lose him.

Agree with everything you said. Its why I say if the reality was he had 3 QB's that graded similarly (and if your organizational philosophy was - hey we realize there is some element of uncertainty no matter what) - than I would be pretty supportive of moving down from 1-3 and take whichever guy is there. Now if when you look at it - you have 3 guys, 1 grades out extremely high, the other two are just high, than given it is QB, I say take the extremely high one since you have a lot of conviction there (but it better be real conviction). No matter what they do - even if the entire process is right - the reality is there is inherent uncertainty/luck that is a part of this whole equation.

It could also be as simple as saying - I like who I'm going to take at #1 this year just as much as CJ Stroud (if not more), so I'm going to draft as good of a QB as Stroud (or better) plus have Moore, Wright, Stevenson and a 25 2nd rounder.

Biggs is the best and I think you were spot on on Mooney and Johnson. Also on the OC - it was really clear they didn't like the game-planning and the play calling from Getsy. There were also some comments about how you need to design your scheme to the players, which to me harken to, it wasn't optimized for Field(s) skill set, etc. With that said - Flus is the HC so I would have thought in the off-season he could have done some of that, but maybe he did and than by the time you get that far along it is too little too late, cause you can't retrain a play book, etc? I don't know.

Warren is a confident and well spoken dude.

Listening to Warren, Poles and Flus talk. I feel like they want honest and high character coaches and players. They also need to be good at their job - but as team players. Everything you describe about Reich's personality - feel like the right fit.

Listening to Warren is a lot better than listening to Teddy. Not saying he said anything impressive - but he was grounded and thoughtful and you can tell he has experience.

Poles: "You want to make a call about the #1, I'm open, make a call." "In my mind, I'm going to take this all the way into April"

A couple takeaways: From a leverage perspective - I walk away from this thinking it is 60/40 they stick with Fields, which might have been strategic. Is going to force a team wanting #1 to blow them away and also force a team interested in Fields to call them with a pretty strong offer. But I get a sense from Poles of - I want to build a really good football team and he didn't seem as concerned with QB as maybe Ryan Pace was. He seems like - I'll build a really good team and keep doing it and will figure out QB, whether Fields or someone else. Don't get the sense that it has to be with #1 pick. Re: LT/RT - Seems happy with Braxton Jones & Wright as the book end tackles.

It seemed pretty clear with Flus comments that they were pretty aligned and once the trend was upward with the Bears in 2H that Flus was sticking around and they would continue with the plan. You could tell they are connected and have a strong relationship (Poles / Flus). A few things that came out to me: Braxton Jones is your starting LT - Poles is clearly proud of that find, saw growth in him, and while he referenced maybe you add some depth - he isn't taking an LT in top 10 Justin Fields - Poles clearly is a huge fan of Justin Fields. This could have been a strategic response - but it seemed pretty clear he genuinely likes Fields a ton.

I agree - I don't think the new OC is going to have much of a say in do you keep Fields or Not. But the Bears will have to be careful in this - because when you are interviewing candidates you don't want to interveiw 7 people and based upon what you share in those interviews the 6 candidates who don't get the job KNOW what the Bears plan at QB is (that will impact our leverage).

I think the HC has a job - managing the culture, setting the principles, setting the tone, and driving development and making sure right people are pushing for those things. They also oversee game plans but with help. I'm not going to sell Flus short for a defense that performed at a high level for the final 8 weeks of the season. And I'm not going to discount the significant development out of young players on the defensive side of the ball. I wouldn't do what the Bears are doing either - but I will admit those things were real and happened.

Bienemy is hard for me, because unlike Frazier and Reich, Bienemy has an end game to become a HC. So I think there is risk bringing in a guy who really is a hired gun looking to be a head coach. Whether that brings "in-fighting" etc, I just don't like what it means. That isn't to say there is a problem with someone trying to be a HC, there isn't, but I think if you hired a younger OC who was really looking to create a name - they wouldn't have that same ability to undermine the HC as say a Bienemy. Note: I don't think Frazier or Reich would. In both cases - they seem to be at the point that they aren't getting considered for another HC opportunity. In Reich's case, Flus and him also have/had a pretty strong working relationship where you just wouldn't expect to get undermined like that.

I'm going to go: OC: Frank Reich - flat out, he's respectable and good at his job. Former QB too, so he knows what it takes and he should still have a ton of connections to pull in a good QB coach. He also is probably not getting a 3rd HC gig, so you probably have him until he retires. And I'd also think given his age, your ability to attract a good QB coach who can eventually become the OC is solid too. DC: Leslie Frazier - Making up a name, but I feel like Flus will call the plays anyway, but Frazier is super experienced and has a track record as a good leader. His defenses have been all over the map, but Flus is going to call the plays, but Frazier commands respect and is a solid fit. Brings some nuances having been a 4-3 and 3-4 guy as well, so some of those unique wrinkles will be interesting.