DABEARSDABOMB

Haha - I almost said the other scenario - trade / acquire big name guy only to have him get hurt in camp - but I figured I didn't want to put that sort of negativity out there lol. I also think the above scenario is still probably the most likely (i.e., Bears drafting a young QB) - really if you are Pace/Nagy - you really just need them to show some glimmer of hope and you probably can justify a rational for why the org should be patient with you at that point vs. changing directions. I have to think Mac Jones stock sky-rocketing had to catch the Bears off-guard though, cause reality is it almost means no matter what the Bears do at QB - they are going to have to give up assets (where as right at the start of the off-season, they probably would have guessed they had a shot at one of the top 5 QB's when they pick at 20.

How are the Bears getting up to 13? I see we still have the 2nd and 3rd round picks - so are Bears trading next years 1st rounder to move up 7 spots? I do think you probably landed on the spot at play for where the last of the 1st round QB's goes (as I think you have a few other QB needy teams right behind the Chargers & obviously Chargers should capitalize on this move since they have the QB position addressed).

Just like with Watson - I don't think any price is too high for the Bears to land a franchise type QB. It is going to be expensive - but at that point - you focus the rest of your energy on making the rest of the roster better knowing you have found an individual talent who will also make others better. But my expectation is - any trade for Wilson or Watson probably ends up costing 3 1st round picks (or 2 1st rounders + 2nd rounder + someone at Roquan Smith type of level).

Alex Smith was pretty lousy last year. I am probably the biggest Foles disliker on this entire forum and I would take him over Smith as a starting QB and I've been on the record numerous times that the only scenario where I accept Foles as the starter to open camp is because the team has invested in a high upside young QB that it likes (i.e., 1st round pick) who they aren't quite yet ready to throw the feet to the fire on. I don't have an issue with Smith persay - cause maybe another off-season physically helps him, but in my opinion he is purely a back-up level player at this point. If the Bears didn't have Foles - I would be all over signing Smith to be on the roster - because I think he's a very capable back-up and just a good lockeroom guy to have around.

Yeah - the other two are just as bad as Mitch. Darnold I'm 100% on board with - if he is on the market.

I'm so annoyed - this was such a great deal for the Colts. They bought low on a QB who has been an above average QB all but his last season in the league and did all of that with sub-par lines and horrific wide receiving.

I just have a hard time over focusing on 2020. I can pretty easily make a long list of excuses to account for Wentz having the year he did (it was a historic regression - so it isn't like we have a sample size to evaluate bounce backs). But between 14 different starters on oline, no receivers, disgruntled & ugly offensive coaches, and throw in COVID protocol and oddities and that is a good starting point. He threw picks like he has never done in his entire career. Past 3 seasons - he was top 5 in terms of interception percentage. So nothing about his past would say he is a turnover machine (at least not from an INT perspective - he fumbles the ball a TON - which is a concern).

Lets not forget - we have DeFillipo as QB coach - and he was Wentz QB coach when Wentz was at his best. I'd say Nagy has some pretty good inside info from that perspective on Wentz as well. Additionally - the other team rumored to be on Wentz is the Colts....yes the same Colts team with Reich as HC, who worked extremely closely with Wentz back when Wentz was at his peak. It is kind of odd - but to me fact that Bears/Colts are in - with 2 people who worked pretty closely with said player - would tell me they don't think that highly of Pederson's opinion or have enough inside info to tell you the dumpster fire that the Eagles were.

For anyone who can ignore 2020 (which is just 1 year). This is Wentz from 2017-2020: 4th in TD% 3rd in INT% 5th in QBR 9th in YPG 8th in Wins Yes Please is all I can say.

One Rumor is - Bears trade Foles, Miller, and 1st round pick for Wentz and 2nd round pick; but also some reports that no 2nd round pick coming back. To be honest - the deal (with a 2nd rounder) - seems like a total no brained. It basically costs the Bears $16M to get him (because they don't have to pay Foles). This puts Robinson in full pay plus still gives you a chance to enhance oline and draft another wideout. A ton of smoke here. We'll have to see - but Wentz is a really good guy to take a shot on. When he's been on - he's played at MVP type of level and in both 2017 and 2019 was absolutely fantastic. For anyone that just jumps to his 2020. First - just look at the Eagles WR corps - it was AWFUL. His 2 best wideouts were an undrafted FA from a couple years ago (Ward) and a 6th round pick who was cut by Lions/Packers before making it to Philly. The oline was bad - very bad at pass blocking and the ground game had some talent - but no 1000 yard rusher. The only plus on the Eagles offense is their TE corps - which is legit. Add in what by all accounts was a disaster out culture and just a messy offensive room (with too many voices) and obviously a bad HC/QB relationship and I can pretty quickly make excuses for that 2020. If you go to 2019 - Wentz was 5th in TD's, was stellar in red zone and on 3rd down (top 5 in both) and was top 3 in INT %. Oh and he did that with a oline that ranked around 20th in passing and a WR corp that had ZERO talent due to injuries. His top 3 guys were all injured. Oh and he was stellar in close games too (1 score situations) and was stellar against top 10 defenses. Just read this link - sums up 2019 pretty nicely. I'm not saying Wentz is a top 5 QB - but 2020 was the only time since his rookie season where he wasn't a top 10 NFL QB. Oh and the cap hit will be far less than top 10 pay and will only look better in 2 years if he performs like 2017-2019 Wentz. https://www.discussthegame.com/posts/5f2587350b0cf30004326d7a

It is why my preference is sign Winston as a flyer and draft a QB. If Winston is great - fine, you found a QB. If he isn't - by mid year you turn the keys to the new QB. If he isn't good - new regime takes another shot next year.

Its hard to say - the year before Wentz was absolutely fantastic and with total garbage around him. Wentz has his warts - but Philly has put pure junk around him. If he didn't have the rumors of being not that great in the clubhouse - I would be more fired up about Wentz., Even with that in mind - I am 100% okay acquiring him as long as the price isn't crazy. If the Bears got him - they could cut him whenever they want - as I believe Philly is on the hook for all the guarantees. In fact - for whomever acquires Wentz - the contract isn;'t bad - basically Bears get Wentz around 25M per year for years (and can cut whenever they please with no implications). I believe that $ amount would be about the 16th highest paid QB in the league. So I'll probably bet Wentz is at least average to slightly above average; he's at worse been that every season of his career except this past one. And he has had a few seasons that were stellar - the one where Foles replaced him from injury - he was on pace for the MVP when he went out. Bears have never had a QB who we could ever say that about.

The "can't read a defense" comment on Trubisky. I don't really think there are very many examples in college football where you can really make an evaluation on a QB's ability to read a defense. In fact - I would say Watson had way more footage in college of poor decision making - which lets be clear - is exactly why, despite his record and overall resume, he wasn't the #1 overall selection in the draft. If he had shown better and quicker decision making in college - he would have been the runaway #1 overall pick (when you combine that with his pure athleticism, leadership intangibles, etc). Bottom line - very very few college QB's, especially the elite ones have to make a ton of tight window throws nor do they have to throw that many guys open. The reailty is - in college - you are flat out throwing to open wide receivers and with that it means the windows are wider. It is this exact reason why IT IS SO DIFFICULT to evaluate whether a college guy is going to translate into the NFL. You can evaluate accuracy - but even than - it is easier for a QB to be accurate when he has a big windows to hit his wide-out. When you need to throw a ball regularly to just this spot (away from a db and where only the WR can get it)...all of a sudden the margin shrinks, etc. Let alone fact that the QB has to make the quick read and decision to go there. I think the thing scouts are missing is - the QB's who have really stepped up next level - have been the guys who can make something out of nothing. When you think of Mahomes - his ability to make plays when things break down - that is what makes him special Deshaun Waston in some ways is the exact same - his ability to ad-lib - and turn nothing into a big play is huge. I actually don't know that either of them are any better at just running a run of the mill offense than Trubisky - but both of them are exceptional at making big plays and or buying a bit extra time so they or their weapons can make big plays. Herbert from Oregon looks to be the same way - that dude is firing bullets down field with a ton of precision - but he's doing it with accuracy and because his pure athleticism is enabling it. Quite frankly - I think the Bears thought Mitch would be that way - but after he had that big shoulder injury - he never showcased that playmaking skill again. If you go back a couple years ago - Mitch was lethal on the run, literally lethal. Even this year, when he ran effectively - the explosiveness and elusiveness was not there. He has always played tighter and with what looks like more fear/lack of aggression than he did before. Bottom line - the college game makes it really hard to evaluate a QB - which is why I think if you believe in a QB's tools - you should focus on his ability to make big plays with people around him and ultimately make the throws. That big play aspect seems to translate more closely to the NFL and than if the player can also read a d (decently) - you probably end up with at worse an above average starting QB.

For me - if I were Pace/Nagy - I think the simplest, lowest risk move would be making a play at any of the young change of scenery candidates. Because - for any of those players who were a late bloomer (i.e., a Brees or Tannehill type), the development was parlayed by that change of scenery. The benefit of the change of scenery play - is simple - you aren't leveraging future assets, you likely are maintaining cap flexibility, and quite frankly - you can invest in a bit of the foundation if the team needs to take another swing at a QB again in a year (i.e., this move enables you to draft 1 or 2 olinemen and a wideout with your 1st 3 picks). If I were to look at the names on the list - the simple and easy one is Winston - since I believe he's a UFA and quite frankly the perfect change of scenery guy. Former #1 overall who actually has put up some pretty prolific passing stats during his career, but his teams haven't win - partly at his expense - given his propensity for the turnover. He spent a year working with an offensive guru in Payton and just being able to watch a lot from the sidelines. At 27 years old - if you hit with him - you pay him the money and know you have a guy who you can build around for a number of years. And when I say prolific passing stats - his last full season he threw for 5000+ yards - 33 TDs (and an exceptionally alarming 30 INTs). Bottom line - if he was able to learn and watch Brees/Payton and benefit from that (which is definitely possible) - the Bears could be finding a guy ready to harness his potential (as he has all the arm talent in the world). You might also say - if he was that good - why would Payton not play him and/or not retain him (given Brees pending future) and those would be fair points/questions. I would hope Pace, with his ties to Ne Orleans - could get some pretty good intel on Winston.

Between the Watson thread and other places - it looks like many (if not the majority) lean towards not going after Watson (given the direct cost). So maybe I'll flip this thread around see what all of our resident GM's would do if you were Pace. The key piece here is if you were Pace - so keep in mind your current contract situation. Not all encompassing - and I have to think some more - but I presume the Bears list are (and this is in no particular order): Draft Pick Wentz Winston Watson Carr Garapalo Prescott (if there are any snags in Dallas) Watson 3 Way (Tua/D'Arnold - maybe) Matt Ryan Trubisky - at this point would seem off the table. Seems very clear they want to go another direction and take a shot on someone else. Someone else might be better (or worse) than Mitch - but the point is - it is someone else. There is no one on the above list whom I would totally throw up at the concept of getting - but I would be irate if the team made a play for Teddy Bridgewater. I also am pretty low on a move for Matt Ryan - just reeks of a desperation play and too short sited of a move given Ryan's age.

Hell of a trade by the Lions. Sucks cause I really liked the idea of Stanford on Bears.

So I tend to think scenario 1 and 2 are what Bears should do regardless. I’d than draft some onlineman, take a shot at a young QB (knowing I might also do the same next year depending on how this swing goes), and than I’d get a wideout or two given the depth of the draft and try and find another db. Call it a mini refresh - and if Pace and Nagy had real swag - they could save their job too - cause of that qb looks decent - I’m not calling for their heads - I’m saying let’s see if we can do this. I also should note I am totally open to trading for Tua as part of the Watson trade. I saw nothing I liked from Tua - but not denying the raw talent he had coming out of college and if there was ever a year to excuse his performance I would say a year with a COVID offseason where you are coming off a major injury would be a valid excuse. Unless they get Watson, Wentz or Stafford - I’m drafting a qb early or I’m trading for Tua/D’Arnold and seeing if Bears can buy low and find gold. In the scenario it is a young QB - No matter what I do I do it knowing if it doesn’t work - I’m going right back to the well the next year. I will point out - in bears case - if that happened - clearly a new GM/Head Coach would be making that decision.

Personally - I trade him and live with the cap hit knowing I accumulated assets and next year have a ton of cap flexibility.

Watkins is a no - Golliday is good and if the Bears made a run at Stafford I wouldn't mind that move. But you are right in sense Golliday has gotten hurt. Maybe getting with Bears training staff would help. Feels like Lions have seen there fair share of injuries and I wonder if they aren't using as modern medical science, etc. Not saying the Bears are a best in class organization at all levels - but part of what Pace has done well is really made significant investments in the analytics and sports science departments and obviously helped drive a massive effort to give the Bears a world class training facility. But Watkins - even when he hasn't been hurt - he has never been the player everyone expected him to be coming out of college. He's always been paid on that hype and potential and at this point in your career - when you don't have the production, no thanks. Golliday is still pretty young too - and has Chicago roots - so could be a nice play. Not sure how different $ will be between him and Robinson - but either way - if Robinson doesn't want to be here, you transition tag or franchise Robinson to move him and make your play at Golliday (problem is Golliday probably doesn't stay on the market fast enough to let you make a move on Robinson). And if you look at Golliday - last year he was hurt - the 2 years prior he played and started 31 out of 32 games. I also think Golliday is a way better fit for the offense Nagy wants to run - in the sense that he has always appeared to be far more explosive of a wideout than Robinson (who is skill wise - is fantastic - but fear factor - he isn't going to take it over the top and isn't as much of a homerun threat). His rookie season he played 11 and started 5 - maybe some of that was due to injury? But I presume more was due to being a 3rd round rookie who slowly got playing time.

So I'll throw out my acquire Watson scenario - with the caveat that - my trading only works if the Bears can accumulate some extra assets this year so that really you are making a huge investment in Watson today - recognizing the step to greatness isn't going to happen overnight (because from a cap/asset perspective - they will have issues) - but having that true franchise QB is where you have to start. If Bears unequivocally believe Watson is that guy - than I think almost any price is worth it - because it isn't just about the next 1-2 years - it is about the 5-8 year window you have with an elite QB. I will also note - I don't see the Bears getting Watson by having the absolute strongest package - so at some point - Watson is going to have to tip the scales a bit in the Bears favor for this to work. The Bears will clearly not be the best team looking to acquire Watson - so for this to work - Bears are going to have to convince Watson (from ownership to GM to coach) that he is their guy and that they are going to build this entire franchise around him and make him a legend in Chicago and around the NFL. Endorsement deals - Love of the City - etc. But realistically - they are going to have to sell them on their commitment to do that over time - cause there is almost no scenario where I see Watson arriving and the Bears just being immediate superbowl contenders - unless instead of what I do below - the Bears sell like the next 4 years worth of draft picks - which I do not condone. Step 1: Move Mack - Get maximum value and my hope is you are talking at least 2 2nd round picks (ideally you get a 1st and a 2nd - even if one of those is a future pick - I don't care). And for those that say you can't get that - I don't believe it. All advance metrics still say Mack is a well above average pass-rusher and while his production dipped with the Bears - he's still widely viewed as an elite player and pass rushers (next to QB's) still have high value. This is a move that is necessary - as Bears need to find other assets - plus I think they need to move Mack for increased flexibility in terms of future cap usage (think 2022 & beyond). Note: I do this in almost any scenario if I were the Bears front office - because I think they need to find a way to develop their offense and I think Mack gets in the way. Although I would caveat this is something they could always do in another year (presuming Mack doesn't suffer a serious injury) and potentially under a new front office (depending on how 2021 goes). Step 2: Franchise and trade Allen Robinson - Get whatever you can for him - maybe it is a 2nd round pick - maybe it is a future 2nd round pick or 3rd round pick - but you can not fit Robinson's contract on the Bears. As much as I like Robinson - with the holes this club has - you can't afford paying Allen Robinson $20M per year; Note: I do not know whether the Bears can do what I outline above and still be in a cap position to fit Watson's contract under the books - but I'll leave that to another post who can verify or not. Step 3: Trade your 1st round pick, your 2nd round pick, the picks you acquired for Mack (1st round & future 2nd round) and next years 1st round and 2nd round pick - for Deshaun Watson. That would be 3 1st round picks (2 in this years draft; 1 next year) & 3 2nd round picks (1 this year & 2 next year (1 being the Bears & 1 being a pick you got from Robinson or the other Mack pick). I personally don't think that deal alone is going to be as good as what a team like Miami could offer - and maybe it isn't enough or I'm unrealistic in what I can get for Mack/Robinson (its possible). If that is the case - an alternative would be packaging Roquan Smith in the deal - although my preference would be to keep him as a young defender. In this scenario - Bears still potentially have a 2nd round pick and than the rest of their draft after 1st round and only essentially mortgaged next years 1st / 2nd rounders as well. None of the above is probably realistic - but hey - its a starting point. The thing I don't know is how much cap space / would they have cap space to do this?

So the worst part was - all the slime graphics were for Saints TD's and not Bears. I actually watched most of the game on Nick - figured my 5 & 7 year old would enjoy it and to be honest - most of the time I don't care about the commentary anyway and I enjoyed it. They watch games with me anyway - but I think they enjoyed it a bit more watching it on Nick and some of the penalty explanations and stuff like that - which were more simple - were perfect. Not sure I'd want to watch every game on Nick - but I'm in for a few games a year.

If anything the Licht thing tells you maybe you should be patient with your GM - or it downplays the importance of a GM and more the element of luck or whatever you want to call it tied to finding a QB. But IIRC - Licht was on the hot seat at least a few times during his tenure - which by and large would be considered a complete miss (if you look purely at W/L record). And it included taking a kicker who literally sucked in like the 2nd round.

The real miss was when the Bears hired Marc Trestman over Andy Reid. That was when it all went wrong.

Franchise Arob - trade him for a 2nd rounder (I don't know if that is doable). Trade Mack for a 1st or 2 2nd rounders. At that point - I think you might have enough capital to make some moves - but only way I can see Bears pulling off is if Watson has a really short list of teams and is pretty much demanding a trade to the Bears. I don't really know why he would do that - knowing you might have another new coaching staff in a year. If Nagy and Watson went back and had worked well together at some point - I could see it happen. I just don't see Watson to Chicago - although I do see Nagy wanting him and I see Pace and his aggressive ways also being enamored with this chance.

Absolutely not. Singeltary was a lousy coach and a lousy DC. I don't mind him as someone on the staff but no no no no no. Didn't he most recently go like 1-27 as a high school football head coach.