DABEARSDABOMB

By the way - I said almost the same thing 12 years ago from Phil Emery's eyes on why Andy Reid was a no brainer to go get when the Eagles surprisingly moved on from him.

By the way - put yourself in Ryan Poles or even Kevin Warren's shoes. I really think at this point its down to Johnson or McCarthy. Johnson is the top young, potential high upside unknown on the market. McCarthy is the stable, high floor, good coach, with a proven track record of getting the most out of his QB's (and by the way his players genuinely seem to love him). You are sitting there in those seats and thinking of longevity - do you go for the homerun that could look like a disaster in 2 years or do you hire McCarthy and basically in reality that should (anything can happen) buy you a few years, if the ship is turning and you are heading in right direction...in 4-5 years you could always now pivot to say, its time to find the high upside coach who can jump in....but you are now 5 years down the road if you are Poles, if you've made the playoffs say 3 or 4 out of those 5 years...you are NOT on the hotseat, and instead are looking at another hire and probably a pretty safe path to say 10 years in the seat. In fairness - anything could happen, McCarthy could come in, you know he's got a high floor and it starts to show that Poles draft's and FA moves have been wrong and now he is out and McCarthy is staying (even in that scenario - if I'm Warren, I at least know I've put Caleb with a proven, bright offensive mind who is GOOD with QB's - so I've protected the franchise from that standpoint). I just think of the above and while there is the allure of Ben Johnson - do you really wait 3 weeks for the chance of Johnson and if you meet with Mike and really say hey this guy is different than what we've had in Chicago for a long time, this guy is Chicago, this guy is really good...do you really let him leave the building and interview for New Orleans while you chase the allure or Ben Johnson (who is going to get a huge offer from the Raiders - no doubt about it in my mind)?

I really am in camp of McCarthy is a gift that fell in their laps. He knows offenses, he knows how to work with QBs, and he is going to get a ton out of Caleb and get this franchise headed in right direction.

I saw this somewhere else - but this goes back to 2000-2024 and how McCarthys offenses have performed and who the qb was. I will notate 2017 with Packers was when Rodger’s was hurt (i think by Wooten or someone on Bears iirc): Mike McCarthy as OC in New Orleans and San Francisco ('00-'05) 00 - 10th in yards, 10th in points (Jeff Blake & Aaron Brooks) 01 - 10th in yards, 13th in points (Aaron Brooks) 02 - 19th in yards, 3rd in points (Aaron Brooks) 03 - 11th in yards, 14th in points (Aaron Brooks) 04 - 15th in yards, 14th in points (Aaron Brooks) 05 - 32nd in yards, 30th in points (had 4 different QBs start games - Alex Smith, Tim Rattay, Ken Dorsey, Cody Pickett) Mike McCarthy as Green Bay head coach ('06-'18) (Brett Favre through '07; Aaron Rodgers '08-onward) 06 - 9th in yards, 22nd in points 07 - 2nd in yards, 4th in points 08 - 8th in yards, 5th in points 09 - 6th in yards, 3rd in points 10 - 9th in yards, 10th in points 11 - 3rd in yards, 1st in points 12 - 13th in yards, 5th in points 13 - 3rd in yards, 8th in points 14 - 6th in yards, 1st in points 15 - 23rd in yards, 15th in points 16 - 8th in yards, 4th in points 17 - 26th in yards, 21st in points 18 - 12th in yards, 14th in points Mike McCarthy as Dallas head coach (''20-'24) 20 - 14th in yards, 17th in points (Andy Dalton & Dak Prescott) 21 - 1st in yards, 1st in points (Dak Prescott) 22 - 11th in yards, 4th in points (Dak Prescott & Cooper Rush) 23 - 5th in yards, 1st in points (the year McCarthy took over playcalling from Kellen Moore) (Dak Prescott) 24 - 17th in yards, 21st in points (Dak Prescott, Cooper Rush & Trey Lance)

Kevin O'Connell to me is a sleeper name to watch. Knocked out of the playoffs, one year left on his deal. Clearly has gotten the most out of that team, despite some playoff losses. But that team as good as they outperformed has a lot of change coming...does KOC have some leverage to potentially be a FA coach and with that could a team hiring now potentially push Vikings to move now (vs. lose him a year from now as a free agent). Warren probably has some connections still to Minny so has to have good intelligence there. But Vikings essentially have no draft picks this year and I believe its like 38 free agents. I'd be willing to give up a pick to get KOC...just not a FRP...that would have to be reserved for a McVay / Shanny.

Could also just be - sometimes you just don't match-up well against a certain team. That could be what this is.

Oh wow. Didn’t realize it would hit this early. My view is those are huge for OC or RB or Safety…so nice to have.

Good for Ian. On to round 2. I believe if he is hired Bears qualify for 2 3rd round picks (presume in next years draft vs this years).

1000% not happening.

This is where my head is at - the floor is high with McCarthy and right now I think what he brings is exactly what this org needs to take a considerable step forward. I'll also note Matt Flynn...beyond his work with Rodgers and now Dak...this guy got Matt Flynn a huge deal too.

I don't think that is his ceiling. I think the question is as he gets more and more experience he will get better at the other stuff and have time to do so because his other skill set is so strong. I think Daniels can be a top 7 QB...by the way I still think Caleb can be as well and I wouldn't put one over the other yet on who will be better. I do think Daniels has shown his floor is real high though...with only major downside being he gets himself destroyed running.

Before they changed the rules - this would have been true. Under the new rules I don't think this is true anymore. No one under contract can be interviewed in person (whether you are on a playoff team or out of the playoffs) until JANUARY 20th. So the only real head coaching candidates that you could have had an actual IN PERSON head coaching interview with up until today would be Pete Caroll and Mike Vrabel (since NEITHER were under contract). The Pats interviewed a few guys who were not in the league (Byron Leftwich and someone else - don't recall) to go along with Vrabel and Bears for example met with Ron Rivera in person...but otherwise for anyone employed by an NFL team as a coach, its purely zoom. Now Mike McCarthy hits the street today (officially)...well technically I guess until tomorrow unless Cowboys let him start process today. Now where it gets interesting is those limited guys that can be interviewed in person...do you hire them without getting an in-person with your preferred candidate or a highly thought of candidate)...that is the question. For example - say you are Poles/Warren and you are debating between McCarthy and Ben Johnson....do you wait until the later of January 20th (or when the Lions are knocked out of the playoffs) so you can finally meet with your other candidate or do you decide you just are going to go with McCarthy? Saints for example - could decide hey, we know we don't have the perfect job so we run a risk that we can't get our main person so maybe they accelerate now and get McCarthy while Bears wait and than Cowboys still pounce on Johnson. That is where it gets interesting...but these new rules are theortically designed to try and SLOW down the hiring process as to not penalize those assistants on playoff teams.

That same list also highlights how good Mike Tomlin is. And think about how many of those wins came after Big Ben was banged up / retired. Now his ability to develop QB's isn't his strength, but what he's done with everything else kind of says, if you gave him a QB, he's going to do incredibly well. I really think both are there for the taking (one would require a trade but could be the perfect change of scenery for Tomlin). Quite frankly I see a scenario that Cowboys get Johnson, Bears get McCarthy and ultimately it is a win for everyone involved (except Lions who lose a really bright mind). Johnson is probably a real good fit in Dallas - where he'd be walking into a really good built system / approach, real talent, etc and be able to use his differentiated scheme to bring them up a level...meanwhile those same things without the right infrastructure have him out of a job in Chicago in 3 years.

By the way - I think one of the things that is very undersold on splitting the field, doing play action, more pre-read throws...is it simplifies things for the QB and helps get their feet and mechanics right. It isn't just the speed of the read, it helps them get into the groove. Bears really never did it and it was just so criminal. And they consistently operated this way - from Waldron to Brown.

Daniels is really good. He throws a great deep ball, is accurate, and his legs are a weapon. I think teams started to figure him and Kingsbury out in 2nd half of the season (which is the reputation in the league - teams adjust to Kingsbury offenses as season goes on), but there is no knocking what Kliff has done with Jayden. He put him in places where he could leverage his strengths and succeed. That is what a good OC / coach does and he did it. Daniels had a better season than Caleb - no denying it. I sometimes wonder what would have been if Caleb was in Washington and given the same coaching and played with a bit more training wheels. I don't know in the long-run what approach is better and I truly hope Caleb will have learned from the no training wheel treatment. I think there are a lot of QB's who would get broken by what the Bears did - but I happen to think Caleb has a swagger that will overcome it (similar to how Peyton overcame it). The inverse is I don't think Andrew Luck every overcame it (he did in terms of how well he played - but I think the shell shock and damage of the hits and lessons he took never went away, hence his early retirement). But Kingsbury had his issues in Arizona. He did somethings well but had his issues and I don't know if he commands the lockeroom and the detail aspects. He's basically always been a fast starter and than a slow downhill from there (from his head coaching days in college to head coach in the pro's). That said - he very well could have learned.

This is where I am. I'm looking for someone who can come in and bring a system. I'm looking for the guy who nails Monday through Saturday. Off-season, training camp, film study, the habits to be successful and putting the structure in place. If they nail that - Sunday's will go well. We may wake up in 3-4 years complaining about losing in the NFC championship game - but at least we'd have taken the real and necessary steps forward to build a repeatable infrastructure. It is why I'm leaning more and more to Mike McCarthy (who Cowboys just announced isn't being retained). He's 13th all time in wins, is an offensive mind, has gotten rave reviews from his time with Rodgers (remember he worked with Rodgers to rebuild his throwing mechanics) and has gotten best out of Dak. He will absolutely frustrate us with in-game decisioning, but he knows offenses and runs very good units. He also has a history of hiring very good coordinators (not that he doesn't have his misses - any coach will). But I think he's the type of guy that can get Caleb to next level. Lets also remember Caleb's ideal was Rodgers - so getting to be coached by the guy who was with him from day 1 in the NFL would be a pretty cool thing. I also think Cowboys dropping him now after declining the interview is really Jerry saving face cause he knows Mike is going to make a run at this Bears job cause he probably wants to get away from Jerry. I also think Mike has had to deal with pressure - Packers job is hard, Cowboys job is hard (big media, Jerry, etc)...so he is as fit for Chicago as there can be.

Im just not a fan of the rookie candidates with exception of Johnson (and even him I have reservations). It’s not that they aren’t qualified - those 3 guys are. Monkin id pass on, I’m hesitant of someone his age finally getting a shot (Arians is like the only time I can ever think of it working). The reason I don’t like the inexperienced coaches is I think the Bears don’t have the right culture and transition approach in place, so they need a good proven coach who can get that stuff right. It’s the stuff that rookie coaches will struggle with, with very few exceptions and I just think the Bears are so freaking broke. Fox was trying to do it but he was just too far out of the game. McCarthy, Tomlin, Pete - they all have the juice still and while they have flaws they know how to establish good, winning programs and build buy in and an actual system - you get that right for a number of years and than I think it becomes easier the next time you replace your coach…further you get away from it the harder it is to create. Shoot…even look across the board…with exception of Lions, rarely do you see the looser teams turn it around and it’s cause I think they are just so messed up by time some of that stuff gets fixed or attempted to those guys are gone and it’s just a whole new attempt at same stuff. When you get a legit experienced guy (not just some crappy retread…this is a rare year where they can get a good experienced guy)…they just enter the lockeroom with juice that someone else has to earn and build and that is its own unique skill that isn’t easy and doesn’t necessarily translate to being great at X’s and O’s or even being a good ceo / manager.

I think now is the time where you might be able to do some back room deal for him. Warren should at least assess the option.

Going to be interesting - McCarthy, Tomlin, and Pete Carrol could all options. All with a Super Bowl championship. Tomlin with a good young QB could be dynamite. Feels like it could be real. Plus Johnson if you go coordinator. God I would love Tomlin. He has gotten so much from crap since Big Ben retired.

He’s the best qb of all time - that isn’t something to discount. His voice matters and makes the Raiders different than before. If Bears had him as partial owner (or Manning) we would all be nuts about it too (imo). But their roster is still awful so I think Bears get who they want as long as they don’t totally mess it up.

You are spot on - has to be favor/rooney rule. I believe Brown doesn’t count toward the rule but I thought he was one of the first to interview. Any coach currently under contract (in playoffs or not) can only be virtually interviewed. This gets them one step closer. I suspect we will see everything speed up when McCarthy officially comes out of contract - because it’s at that point where I think the Bears next push happens (including waiting for Johnson). I think 20th is when any current coach or coordinator under contract can interview in person.

I don’t know what to think of Flores Miami stint. He did a ton with very little there and is an elite d coordinator and holds people to a standard. He also seems to show remorse - but he also expects a lot. I think or would hope Caleb would respond to someone who held him to such a high standard. Tua was too soft to handle it - but the intent wasn’t to knock him down, it was to push him to be great (him begin Tua). But Flores would be last on my list of former head coaches that I outlined above. But I could get on board. It would be a far better hire than Flus or Trestman were out of the gate.

I do lean towards an experienced HC - Vrabel, Pete, Flores, McCarthy. My guess is it is one of those 4. Part of my lean is I don’t think ownership knows what a highly competent head coach actually does and all of the above guys are that.

No interest in Ron. I think this is purely a favor to Ron.

Dexter got a lot better this year - he faded as season went on, but he has a chance to continue to ascend given his physical talents. If they get some support on dline we can see some big multipliers fast next year as it should free up more for Dexter and Montez.