DABEARSDABOMB

I'm 100% on board with the Winston angle - has the upside I like.

I just heard Schefter on ESPN - as of now - he is saying all indications are the league the deadline is going to stay tomorrow (Tuesday). Doesn't seem like the league wants to push things back - despite the cap uncertainty.

I think the issue is Diggs was more of a full market move - where as anyone signing Arob kind of has to play out the whole franchise thing and so that naturally lowers his value. Said another way - Bears don't have the same leverage Vikings did. If you look at Jarvis Landry - he is probably most recent/relevant comp - franchised & traded - and Dolphins got a 4th & 7th round pick for him. But Pix - I hope you are right - cause that would be way better. Leverage matters though - and the good news is - the FA WR crop is pretty thin - but the flipside is - this is a deep wideout draft.

I like Corey Davis a lot and if it were up to me I would franchise and trade Arob. It will be a near-term step down, but its a deep WR draft so take a couple shots there. I would love a 2nd rounder for Arob in that scenario and that is possible - but my guess is maybe you get a 3rd this year and a 3rd next year or something.

A lot more smoke popping up on Wilson - seems like Seattle is ready to move on as well - and they previously were close to trading him (evidently) in 2018. Writing seems to be on the wall there - Bears and Raiders would in my opinion be the 2 most likely possibilities. I think Saint would be all-in as well - not sure if they have the cap space to pull it off - but I would not bet against them (either). Raiders made public stance on Carr - not sure if that is to increase his trade value or to truly reiterate they are happy with him. If Raiders are out - as long as Wilson sticks to his list - one would think it would put the Bears in a really really good position.

So I just want to point out one stat of Wilson and where he has ranked amongst all QB's each of the past 4 years. The stat I'm cherry picking is TD's. He's been top 3 each of the past 4 years on TD's. This is purely passing TD's - Wilson is also pretty nimble so doesn't even value his rushing yards. 2020 = 2nd 2019 = 3rd 2018 = 3rd 2017 = 1st

I’d say the opposite - the misses of first round picks are higher than anyone wants to admit (whether you are Ryan pace or someone else) vs the importance that the qb position is. If I converted it to Leonard Floyd, Kevin White and Roquan Smith for Wilson or Watson - what would you rather have. That is basically one hit (Smith), one ok (Floyd) and one bust (White). I’d take one Watson or Smith over that. I’ll actually go one step further - let’s take the last 3 first round hits - Smith, Fuller and Kyle Long - again - I’ll take one an over those three. You can still put a good online and other things around said player. The Bears issue with Cutler was never that the trade or Jays cap space prevented / hindered their ability to deal with the line or provide Cutler with the right protection and weapons, rather it was the front office and coaching staffs inability to prioritize that. Plus obviously fact that they thought Jay was going to be a top 5 special QB but he wasn’t. And while football is a team sport - having a top 5 qb increases your chance to be a perennial contender - big time.

You are probably 100% right on the above. But if you are Pace - is that seriously how you are going down? With Gardner Minshew and Nick Foles again as QB? Maybe that is okay if Pace thinks highly of Minshew (in fact if he does - great - I don't fault this at all). But otherwise - what are you going to do - tell McCaskey's at end of the season but but but? No - you can't do that. If you are Nagy - you might have an out - if you somehow were .500 with those turds as your QB all year - whether Bears keep you or not - you probably have a resume that gets you another coaching job. You could pretty clearly state you have always been .500 or better despite below average QB play and maybe you directly lay some of that blame on front office that never got you what you needed / pivoted despite whatever feedback you gave (it was pretty clear Nagy was done with Trubisky a whole year ago and Fole was the best the 2 could come up with). But bottom line - Pace and Nagy know they need to find a QB. Pace literally has no excuse - if he doesn't deliver an answer at QB or a different path to a winning team - he's toast. Unless of course he's cleared it with McCaskey - such as - look - I could do X or Y and we can go there, but here is the downside so my preference is this plan - but it will take a bit longer - are you committed to doing such. For now - I'm going to assume - Bears are going to go down one of these paths: - Acquire potential reclamation QB who they pair with a mid round pick (i.e., sign Winston, trade for Minshwe/Mariotta + draft in 2nd / 3rd round whomever they like best) - Make a big strike (i.e., Carr, Wilson, Watson, type of QB (Jimmy G or Cousins I suppose would fit into this list - but much less preferable) - Acquire QB with 1st round pick (trade up or one falls - doesn't matter - but if either shows promise - than Pace/Nagy hitch there hat on that progress) The "big strike" is most expensive, probably highest floor - because this team in the short team is pretty good with a major upgrade at QB and while not having draft picks hurts - it probably hurts more in 2 or 3 years than it does in 1 year (and maybe you can supplement those lost picks in years 2/3 with an expanding cap - cause revenues will normalize and cap probably has a big jump in years 2/3 - especially with new tv dollars coming in). Safest bet is to trade up and get one of the young QB's and just hope they don't look like instant dumpster fires. That should be enough to buy at least a year and if you are ownership - probably easiest to sign up for because yes you've given picks away, but you certainly aren't giving up the same # of assets that it would take for the "big strike". Anything other than the above - I just don't see how Pace could do it, unless he got an extension none of us knew about - in which case I'd be going about this entirely differently.

Haha - I almost said the other scenario - trade / acquire big name guy only to have him get hurt in camp - but I figured I didn't want to put that sort of negativity out there lol. I also think the above scenario is still probably the most likely (i.e., Bears drafting a young QB) - really if you are Pace/Nagy - you really just need them to show some glimmer of hope and you probably can justify a rational for why the org should be patient with you at that point vs. changing directions. I have to think Mac Jones stock sky-rocketing had to catch the Bears off-guard though, cause reality is it almost means no matter what the Bears do at QB - they are going to have to give up assets (where as right at the start of the off-season, they probably would have guessed they had a shot at one of the top 5 QB's when they pick at 20.

How are the Bears getting up to 13? I see we still have the 2nd and 3rd round picks - so are Bears trading next years 1st rounder to move up 7 spots? I do think you probably landed on the spot at play for where the last of the 1st round QB's goes (as I think you have a few other QB needy teams right behind the Chargers & obviously Chargers should capitalize on this move since they have the QB position addressed).

Just like with Watson - I don't think any price is too high for the Bears to land a franchise type QB. It is going to be expensive - but at that point - you focus the rest of your energy on making the rest of the roster better knowing you have found an individual talent who will also make others better. But my expectation is - any trade for Wilson or Watson probably ends up costing 3 1st round picks (or 2 1st rounders + 2nd rounder + someone at Roquan Smith type of level).

Alex Smith was pretty lousy last year. I am probably the biggest Foles disliker on this entire forum and I would take him over Smith as a starting QB and I've been on the record numerous times that the only scenario where I accept Foles as the starter to open camp is because the team has invested in a high upside young QB that it likes (i.e., 1st round pick) who they aren't quite yet ready to throw the feet to the fire on. I don't have an issue with Smith persay - cause maybe another off-season physically helps him, but in my opinion he is purely a back-up level player at this point. If the Bears didn't have Foles - I would be all over signing Smith to be on the roster - because I think he's a very capable back-up and just a good lockeroom guy to have around.

Yeah - the other two are just as bad as Mitch. Darnold I'm 100% on board with - if he is on the market.

I'm so annoyed - this was such a great deal for the Colts. They bought low on a QB who has been an above average QB all but his last season in the league and did all of that with sub-par lines and horrific wide receiving.

I just have a hard time over focusing on 2020. I can pretty easily make a long list of excuses to account for Wentz having the year he did (it was a historic regression - so it isn't like we have a sample size to evaluate bounce backs). But between 14 different starters on oline, no receivers, disgruntled & ugly offensive coaches, and throw in COVID protocol and oddities and that is a good starting point. He threw picks like he has never done in his entire career. Past 3 seasons - he was top 5 in terms of interception percentage. So nothing about his past would say he is a turnover machine (at least not from an INT perspective - he fumbles the ball a TON - which is a concern).

Lets not forget - we have DeFillipo as QB coach - and he was Wentz QB coach when Wentz was at his best. I'd say Nagy has some pretty good inside info from that perspective on Wentz as well. Additionally - the other team rumored to be on Wentz is the Colts....yes the same Colts team with Reich as HC, who worked extremely closely with Wentz back when Wentz was at his peak. It is kind of odd - but to me fact that Bears/Colts are in - with 2 people who worked pretty closely with said player - would tell me they don't think that highly of Pederson's opinion or have enough inside info to tell you the dumpster fire that the Eagles were.

For anyone who can ignore 2020 (which is just 1 year). This is Wentz from 2017-2020: 4th in TD% 3rd in INT% 5th in QBR 9th in YPG 8th in Wins Yes Please is all I can say.

One Rumor is - Bears trade Foles, Miller, and 1st round pick for Wentz and 2nd round pick; but also some reports that no 2nd round pick coming back. To be honest - the deal (with a 2nd rounder) - seems like a total no brained. It basically costs the Bears $16M to get him (because they don't have to pay Foles). This puts Robinson in full pay plus still gives you a chance to enhance oline and draft another wideout. A ton of smoke here. We'll have to see - but Wentz is a really good guy to take a shot on. When he's been on - he's played at MVP type of level and in both 2017 and 2019 was absolutely fantastic. For anyone that just jumps to his 2020. First - just look at the Eagles WR corps - it was AWFUL. His 2 best wideouts were an undrafted FA from a couple years ago (Ward) and a 6th round pick who was cut by Lions/Packers before making it to Philly. The oline was bad - very bad at pass blocking and the ground game had some talent - but no 1000 yard rusher. The only plus on the Eagles offense is their TE corps - which is legit. Add in what by all accounts was a disaster out culture and just a messy offensive room (with too many voices) and obviously a bad HC/QB relationship and I can pretty quickly make excuses for that 2020. If you go to 2019 - Wentz was 5th in TD's, was stellar in red zone and on 3rd down (top 5 in both) and was top 3 in INT %. Oh and he did that with a oline that ranked around 20th in passing and a WR corp that had ZERO talent due to injuries. His top 3 guys were all injured. Oh and he was stellar in close games too (1 score situations) and was stellar against top 10 defenses. Just read this link - sums up 2019 pretty nicely. I'm not saying Wentz is a top 5 QB - but 2020 was the only time since his rookie season where he wasn't a top 10 NFL QB. Oh and the cap hit will be far less than top 10 pay and will only look better in 2 years if he performs like 2017-2019 Wentz. https://www.discussthegame.com/posts/5f2587350b0cf30004326d7a

It is why my preference is sign Winston as a flyer and draft a QB. If Winston is great - fine, you found a QB. If he isn't - by mid year you turn the keys to the new QB. If he isn't good - new regime takes another shot next year.

Its hard to say - the year before Wentz was absolutely fantastic and with total garbage around him. Wentz has his warts - but Philly has put pure junk around him. If he didn't have the rumors of being not that great in the clubhouse - I would be more fired up about Wentz., Even with that in mind - I am 100% okay acquiring him as long as the price isn't crazy. If the Bears got him - they could cut him whenever they want - as I believe Philly is on the hook for all the guarantees. In fact - for whomever acquires Wentz - the contract isn;'t bad - basically Bears get Wentz around 25M per year for years (and can cut whenever they please with no implications). I believe that $ amount would be about the 16th highest paid QB in the league. So I'll probably bet Wentz is at least average to slightly above average; he's at worse been that every season of his career except this past one. And he has had a few seasons that were stellar - the one where Foles replaced him from injury - he was on pace for the MVP when he went out. Bears have never had a QB who we could ever say that about.

The "can't read a defense" comment on Trubisky. I don't really think there are very many examples in college football where you can really make an evaluation on a QB's ability to read a defense. In fact - I would say Watson had way more footage in college of poor decision making - which lets be clear - is exactly why, despite his record and overall resume, he wasn't the #1 overall selection in the draft. If he had shown better and quicker decision making in college - he would have been the runaway #1 overall pick (when you combine that with his pure athleticism, leadership intangibles, etc). Bottom line - very very few college QB's, especially the elite ones have to make a ton of tight window throws nor do they have to throw that many guys open. The reailty is - in college - you are flat out throwing to open wide receivers and with that it means the windows are wider. It is this exact reason why IT IS SO DIFFICULT to evaluate whether a college guy is going to translate into the NFL. You can evaluate accuracy - but even than - it is easier for a QB to be accurate when he has a big windows to hit his wide-out. When you need to throw a ball regularly to just this spot (away from a db and where only the WR can get it)...all of a sudden the margin shrinks, etc. Let alone fact that the QB has to make the quick read and decision to go there. I think the thing scouts are missing is - the QB's who have really stepped up next level - have been the guys who can make something out of nothing. When you think of Mahomes - his ability to make plays when things break down - that is what makes him special Deshaun Waston in some ways is the exact same - his ability to ad-lib - and turn nothing into a big play is huge. I actually don't know that either of them are any better at just running a run of the mill offense than Trubisky - but both of them are exceptional at making big plays and or buying a bit extra time so they or their weapons can make big plays. Herbert from Oregon looks to be the same way - that dude is firing bullets down field with a ton of precision - but he's doing it with accuracy and because his pure athleticism is enabling it. Quite frankly - I think the Bears thought Mitch would be that way - but after he had that big shoulder injury - he never showcased that playmaking skill again. If you go back a couple years ago - Mitch was lethal on the run, literally lethal. Even this year, when he ran effectively - the explosiveness and elusiveness was not there. He has always played tighter and with what looks like more fear/lack of aggression than he did before. Bottom line - the college game makes it really hard to evaluate a QB - which is why I think if you believe in a QB's tools - you should focus on his ability to make big plays with people around him and ultimately make the throws. That big play aspect seems to translate more closely to the NFL and than if the player can also read a d (decently) - you probably end up with at worse an above average starting QB.

For me - if I were Pace/Nagy - I think the simplest, lowest risk move would be making a play at any of the young change of scenery candidates. Because - for any of those players who were a late bloomer (i.e., a Brees or Tannehill type), the development was parlayed by that change of scenery. The benefit of the change of scenery play - is simple - you aren't leveraging future assets, you likely are maintaining cap flexibility, and quite frankly - you can invest in a bit of the foundation if the team needs to take another swing at a QB again in a year (i.e., this move enables you to draft 1 or 2 olinemen and a wideout with your 1st 3 picks). If I were to look at the names on the list - the simple and easy one is Winston - since I believe he's a UFA and quite frankly the perfect change of scenery guy. Former #1 overall who actually has put up some pretty prolific passing stats during his career, but his teams haven't win - partly at his expense - given his propensity for the turnover. He spent a year working with an offensive guru in Payton and just being able to watch a lot from the sidelines. At 27 years old - if you hit with him - you pay him the money and know you have a guy who you can build around for a number of years. And when I say prolific passing stats - his last full season he threw for 5000+ yards - 33 TDs (and an exceptionally alarming 30 INTs). Bottom line - if he was able to learn and watch Brees/Payton and benefit from that (which is definitely possible) - the Bears could be finding a guy ready to harness his potential (as he has all the arm talent in the world). You might also say - if he was that good - why would Payton not play him and/or not retain him (given Brees pending future) and those would be fair points/questions. I would hope Pace, with his ties to Ne Orleans - could get some pretty good intel on Winston.

Between the Watson thread and other places - it looks like many (if not the majority) lean towards not going after Watson (given the direct cost). So maybe I'll flip this thread around see what all of our resident GM's would do if you were Pace. The key piece here is if you were Pace - so keep in mind your current contract situation. Not all encompassing - and I have to think some more - but I presume the Bears list are (and this is in no particular order): Draft Pick Wentz Winston Watson Carr Garapalo Prescott (if there are any snags in Dallas) Watson 3 Way (Tua/D'Arnold - maybe) Matt Ryan Trubisky - at this point would seem off the table. Seems very clear they want to go another direction and take a shot on someone else. Someone else might be better (or worse) than Mitch - but the point is - it is someone else. There is no one on the above list whom I would totally throw up at the concept of getting - but I would be irate if the team made a play for Teddy Bridgewater. I also am pretty low on a move for Matt Ryan - just reeks of a desperation play and too short sited of a move given Ryan's age.

Hell of a trade by the Lions. Sucks cause I really liked the idea of Stanford on Bears.

So I tend to think scenario 1 and 2 are what Bears should do regardless. I’d than draft some onlineman, take a shot at a young QB (knowing I might also do the same next year depending on how this swing goes), and than I’d get a wideout or two given the depth of the draft and try and find another db. Call it a mini refresh - and if Pace and Nagy had real swag - they could save their job too - cause of that qb looks decent - I’m not calling for their heads - I’m saying let’s see if we can do this. I also should note I am totally open to trading for Tua as part of the Watson trade. I saw nothing I liked from Tua - but not denying the raw talent he had coming out of college and if there was ever a year to excuse his performance I would say a year with a COVID offseason where you are coming off a major injury would be a valid excuse. Unless they get Watson, Wentz or Stafford - I’m drafting a qb early or I’m trading for Tua/D’Arnold and seeing if Bears can buy low and find gold. In the scenario it is a young QB - No matter what I do I do it knowing if it doesn’t work - I’m going right back to the well the next year. I will point out - in bears case - if that happened - clearly a new GM/Head Coach would be making that decision.