Okay, I am looking at Scouts Incs top 32 prospects, and it appears we have numerous options coming our way. While I am not saying for a fact any of the following will be available, I think all are at least realistic.
I am not listing the following positions, due to either a lack of value near our pick, or I simply do not see the argument for need: QB, RB, TE & LB. But in looking at need, as well as value...
OT - Michael Oher - It seems absolutely shocking to list him, but everyone I read, his stock has fallen. I think he was considered for the top pick last year if he would have come out, but has simply watched his stock drop hard. While I have read his talent is w/o question, his motivation is often questions. At the Senior Bowl practices, a perfect example came about. An unknown DE blew his doors off on two consecutive plays, and the coach ripped Oher a new one. After that, Oher dominated. But it was considered further evidence that while Oher has the talent, he lacks the motivation. Most seem to have Andre Smith and Eugene Monroe ranked higher than Oher, while many are also putting Jason Smith ahead. Scouts Inc and McShay has Oher ranked at #20, while Kiper has him around 25. So an OT that seemed WAY out of reach for us at one point, very well could be in reach, but should we be looking at a player that is falling down boards so fast?
Oher will be a top 10-15 pick. I'd love it if he fell to us, but right now that's wishful thinking. Of all the top OT's (Monroe, Andre Smith, Jason Smith, and Oher), Jason Smith has the best chance of falling to us, and he's pretty much Chris Williams all over again.
WR - Darrius Heyward-Bey - Crabtree was always out of the question, but now it appears we will have no shot at Macklin either. DHB has good size (6'1 206) and is expected to run a sub 4.4 40. He has great speed, and is a big play threat, but I believe there are questions of focus and how developed he is. Raw talent w/ big upside, but unknown how quickly he will transition. Harven seems to be another WR discussed, but I am not sure he offers more than DHB, and comes in at only 5'10.
Of all the receivers that might be available or worth the 18 pick, DHB makes the most sense for us. Maybe Britt as well if he REALLY impresses at the combine.
OG - Duke Robinson - In truth, he isn't listed in most of the top "big boards" but OGs rarely are. Regardless, I am putting him on the list for us, as I think he is worthy of a mid-late 1st round pick. He is a freak of a stud OG w/ power and quick feet that is amazing. He would likely be an immediate starter inside for us.
I would have agreed with you before the NC, but after watching that game, Duke has dropped on my big board. The combine will be huge.
DE - Michael Johnson - It looks like this is a class that lacks an elite blue chip, but has numerous red chips. Orakpo is the only DE that seems to be ranked too high for us to reach in most big boards, but after him, there are about 4 DEs who have rankings from just out of the top 10 to high 20s. Aaron Maybin, Everret Brown, Tyson Jackson and Michael Johnson all seem to have value that could place them ahead of our pick, or available. I throw Jackson out because, at nearly 300lbs, he doesn't seem like an ideal fit for our scheme. I think Maybin is very likely to be gone, as he will be considered as a 3-4 LB/DE. That leaves Brown or Johnson. I used Johnson simply because I believe Brown is most likely of the two to be gone, but if it alters opinion, write in Brown instead. I really don't know how the DEs will fall.
Michael Johnson is a terrible football player and right now is a round 2-3 prospect. Maybin will be a 3-4 OLB, most likely, and has too many question marks for us to take a chance on. Brown would be a good fit, but he's looking like he'll be off the board come 18. Tyson Jackson makes absolutely ZERO sense, unless Lovie's new scheme has us going to a 3-4. I really like Paul Kruger, but not real sure if he'd fall all the way to our 2nd round pick, but 18 would be to high for him. But he does make sense considering it sounds like we are looking for a future replacement for Ogunleye, and we seem to think Mark Anderson can re-find some of that prior technique he had with Marinelli. Larry English could also be a possibility in the 2nd, while we're on the subject.
DT - Sen'Derrick Marks - Raji is a DT many might like too, but his stock seems to be rising to the point he could be closer than not to a top 10 pick. From what I have read, Raji has been dominating at the Senior Bowl as if he were a man among boys. Perry is also listed up there, but does not seem to fit our system. Frankly, I am not sure if Marks does either, but listed him for value sake. Really, the top fit for our system may be Raji, but it simply doesn't appear anymore he will be available.
I really wanted B.J. Raji prior to the Senior Bowl, but he is dominating it, and will likely go in the 5-15 range. However, if he's there at 18, we'd be fools not to take him. He doesn't seem to be an ideal fit for the Cover 2 with his size, but his play makes him a perfect fit. He can effectively pass the rusher and stuff the run. Him and Harris would be a fantastic DT duo. Marks makes sense as a cover 2 UT, but UT isn't a need and Marks is a borderline round 1 prospect. Peria Jerry, the DT from Ole Miss, is an ideal fit and UT and is the 2nd best DT in this draft, but like I said, UT isn't a need, at least not right now.
CB - Vontae Davis - He may not even make it too us, but for argument sake, I will list him. Decent (not great) size, but great talent. Huge question on him is motivation, as I read he was benched this year at one point "as a wake up call".
He's been falling some and could be here for us. But I'm not that high on him, and I think he's lot like his brother (Vernon Davis), a work out warrior, but doesn't play up to his measureables. I wouldn't mind him, but I think there's a better route for us.
S - Will Moore - W/ Mays out, it appears Moore has taken over the top S spot. FS w/ size. Neither McShay, nor Kiper, put his value high enough for this spot, but like Duke, I think he is a player who will have middle to late 1st round value.
We need a FS, but Moore makes little sense as a Cover 2 FS, and his draft stock has been sinking like a rock. Not only did he have a terrible season, but he's sucked it up at the Senior Bowl. Right now, it looks like Louis Delmas and Rashad Johnson are about to jump ahead of Moore. I think all three of them are borderline 1st round, but likely early-mid second round pics. If we could, trading down to late first/early second and picking one of Delmas or Johnson would make a lot of sense.
So, those are the options, unless you must have a write in candidate. I know some will be gone, while others on draft day will be viewed as reaches, but that's what you get when you talk draft prior to the freaking SB
For me, I would take Oher. While his stock is down right now, I still view him as a stud OT. While we drafted Williams last year, we could easily play Oher at RT, and have our bookend OTs for the next decade. I think Forte and Orton would both write thank you notes.
Of that list, Oher or Raji are the clear top two choices, with Everette Brown being a possibility, IMO.
If Oher is gone, my next choice is Duke. Basically, see the above. Pair Duke w/ Williams, and you potentially create a dominating left side for years to come. Again, Forte and Orton write thank you notes.
I'm not so sure on Duke anymore. I'll try and holdoff final judgement until after the combine/pro day, but he's a second round prospect in my mind right now. I'd love Mark Sanchez, but he'll be a top 10 pick most likely. I think Josh Freeman is a legit possibility, but I would prefer not to go with him because his bust factor is off the charts. With the way the draft looks now, my preference would be to trade down to the late 1st/early second and go with one of Kruger, Delmas, Johsnon, or Robinson. However, like I said in a different thread, it's easier said then done to trade down.
Some other guys that I wouldn't mind/could see at 18 are:
CB D.J. Moore, Vanderbilt - He's a really good CB prospect and is very good in man coverage. This is something we need in a cornerback if we decide to continue with the Blitz Heavy Lovie 2 scheme we ran this past year (yes, I call it the Lovie 2)
SAM Clint Sintim, Virginia/Clay Matthews, USC/Brian Cushing, USC - I know this sounds crazy drafting what could be a 2 down player with our 1st round pick, and a 3rd linebacker to go along with our other expensive 2, but right now, all three of these guys are raising up draft boards, and SAM is a big enough need to where we might be willing to go with it if the draft falls where one of these guys are the BPA for what our needs are. This also makes sense since all three of these guys can blitz and we have become a team that likes to blitz at least one backer or DB as well as the front 4 (partially because the front 4 can't get pressure anymore). However, Matthews or Cushing would make more sense over Sintim because they could potentially play MIKE as well.
