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adam

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  1. The top 3 have to be in the trenches, any OLman, DT, or Edge.
  2. For this week, we have TB vs NYG, and NE vs MIA that will have draft consequences. Ideally, we would want NE and NYG to win this week, though unlikely. If TB and MIA win like expected, the Bears would drop to #12.
  3. Sanders or Ward will both go in the top 10. Sanders will go 1 or 2. Travis Hunter may go #1 as well. Will Cambell is the beast OL out of LSU who will go in the top 10, so will Kelvin Banks out of Texas. I did a better deep dive, in reality, a lot would have to go right for every other team to get to 5 wins to allow the Bears to pick #1. At best they will probably draft between #5-7.
  4. Looking at future games, the Bears are underdogs in every game. So there is a scenario where the Bears can get the #1 pick 3 years in a row, but super unlikely. Due to the crazy SoS, they will lose the tiebreaker to every team. The Bears currently draft 14th. Assuming they lose out and go 4-13. What would be the most likely pick range. It will obviously come down to the other teams below the Bears at the moment. 14. CHI 4-6, plays 0 of 7 against teams at 4-7 or worse. Projection 4-13. 13. TB 4-6, plays 6 of 7 against teams at 4-7 or worse. Projection 8-9. 12. MIA 4-6, plays 4 of 7 against teams at 4-7 or worse. Projection 7-10. 11. CIN 4-7, plays 3 of 6 against teams at 4-7 or worse. Projection 6-11. 10. NO 4-7, plays 3 of 6 against teams at 4-7 or worse. Projection 6-11. ------------------------------------------------------------------------- 9. DAL 3-7, plays 4 of 7 against teams at 4-7 or worse. Projection 5-12. 8. CAR 3-7, plays 3 of 7 against teams at 4-7 or worse. Projection 5-12. 7. NYJ 3-8, plays 3 of 6 against teams at 4-7 or worse. Projection 5-12. 6. NE 3-8, plays 1 of 6 against teams at 4-7 or worse. Projection 4-13. ------------------------------------------------------------------------- 5. LVR 2-8, plays 3 of 7 against teams at 4-7 or worse. Projection 4-13. 4. NYG 2-8, plays 3 of 7 against teams at 4-7 or worse. Projection 4-13. 3. CLE 2-8, plays 2 of 7 against teams at 4-7 or worse. Projection 3-14. 2. TEN 2-8, plays 3 of 7 against teams at 4-7 or worse. Projection 4-13. 1. JAX 2-9, plays 4 of 6 against teams at 4-7 or worse. Projection 4-13. So if the Bears lose out, they would more than likely pick #7, with a possibility to move to #5. Due to bad teams playing each other, it is virtually impossible for more than 7 teams to finish at 4-13 or worse. 1. CLE 3-14 2. NE 4-13 3. JAX 4-13 4. TEN 4-13 5. NYG 4-13 6. LVR 4-13 7. CHI 4-13 ------------- 8. CAR 5-12 9. NYJ 5-12 10. DAL 5-12 If the Bears win 1 game, and finish 5-12, they would draft 10th. They could draft as high as 9th or as low as 12th. 1. CLE 3-14 2. NE 4-13 3. JAX 4-13 4. TEN 4-13 5. NYG 4-13 6. LVR 4-13 ------------- 7. CAR 5-12 8. NYJ 5-12 9. DAL 5-12 10. CHI 5-12 If the Bears win 2 games, and finish 6-11, they would draft 12th with a chance to draft 11th or 13th.
  5. PFF is wild but in this case, I think they actually use the raw stat for drops. From other sites, it looks like Allen and Odunze each have 3 drops, Moore has zero apparently. I have no clue what a drop is anymore. I swear there have been passes that have hit Moore in the hands and he flat out dropped it.
  6. Hell, they probably could've traded down and drafted Thomas, got a 2nd round pick and another pick in 2025.
  7. Honestly, he is one of the worst HCs in the entire NFL over the last decade. At first they blamed the rebuild, then it was Fields, now what is the excuse?
  8. Looking at unit EPA comparisons: CHI 24th OFF, 27th Pass, 12th Rush, TTT 2.86, QBP 38.1 MIN 1st DEF, 7th Pass, 1st Rush, TTT 2.78, QBP 37.2 On offense, Caleb won't really feel too much difference as his TTT and QBP are almost the same as what MIN has done. The biggest factor looks to be the rush defense. MIN 14th OFF, 13th Pass, 21st Rush, TTT 3.06, QBP 36.3 CHI 8th DEF, 3rd Pass, 20th Rush, TTT 2.93, QBP 34.4 On defense, MIN is actually a middle of the road offense. Outside of JJ, it is even less. The Bears will be forcing Darnold to throw faster than he is used to which may cause his pressure rate to go up.
  9. If you zoom out a little around Caleb's stats, considering the last few games, he really is doing amazing. So he has 2,016 passing yards in 10 games which is good for 21st in the league. Kyler Murray in 10 games? 2,058 (42 more). Justin Herbert, 2,186. Jalen Hurts, 2,197. Then 11 games, Nix with 2,275, and Daniels with 2,338. So his production is right there, one more "good/great" game and he is in the middle of all the listed QBs for passing yardage. All the while he is the only QB in those names in the top 10 in Pressure Rate and sacks. Caleb started the season with a bunch of INTs, but since then has been stellar taking care of the ball. He is tied for 6th for Turnover Worthy Passes now down to 2.1%, even though is ADOT is 10th at 8.3. Somehow PFF only has receivers listed with 8 drops on the season. That is hard to believe as it feels like there have been at least 1-2 a game. Caleb is also 6th in Rushing for a QB with only 10 fewer yards than Josh Allen in one fewer start. He is tied for the 2nd most 10+ yard runs for QBs trailing only Lamar Jackson.
  10. adam

    Keenan Allen

    Bowers has had the luxury of a ton of targets. Same with a few other TEs compared to Kmet. If Kmet had their number of targets, in most cases his stats would look even better than theirs, in some cases by a lot. Kmet leads all TEs in Catch% at 86.5 and is 3rd in EPA/Rec for TEs. Bowers: Targets - 89, Receptions - 70, 702 yds, 3 TD If Kmet had 2x the volume: Kmet: Targets - 74, Receptions - 64, 716 yds, 6 TD and if you compare Kmet's projected volume numbers with the next few TEs, you can see his numbers exceed theirs as well. Kelce: Targets - 80, Receptions - 62, 507 yds, 2 TD Otton: Targets - 70, Receptions - 49, 456 yds, 4 TD McBride: Targets - 65, Receptions - 49, 552 yds, 0 TD Waldron really messed up this offense. Hopefully we can see a solid stretch of 7 games with increased volume for Kmet.
  11. adam

    Team Records

    At Swift's current pace, it would only take him 15 more years to hit that mark, when he is 40 years old.
  12. adam

    Team Records

    With 10 games down, here are the updated franchise rankings: Caleb Williams, who is on pace for 3,427 passing yards would easily be the Bears single-season rookie record, but also the 5th best passing season for a Bears QB ever. That same total would put him 23rd on the Bears all-time list for career passing yards. He would then only need 3,248 to pass Justin Fields for 10th on the all-time list next season. To become the franchise passing leader, he will need a 2nd contract, and would probably hit it in his 6th or 7th season. Cutler did it in 7.25 seasons. Swift is currently 72nd on the Bears all-time rushing yards list. At his current pace, he would break into the top 45 by the end of the year. At his current pace, he can actually crack the top 25 best rushing seasons in franchise history. Swift can crack the top 20 for the Bears career rushing list late next season. DJ Moore is now 44th in receiving yards and receptions on the Bears all-time list. He has a chance to move up past Tom Waddle for 33rd on the list for receptions and 36th for receiving yards by the end of the season. It looks like DJ will need 2 more seasons to get into the Bears top 10 Receiving Yards list. At his current pace, he would need 3.5 yrs after this season to be the Bears all-time leading receiver (DJ would be 31 at that time). Kmet is now 13th for receptions and 27th for receiving yards, but is now 2nd in franchise history in receptions by a TE (Ditka) and 4th in receiving yards (Ditka, Moorehead, Clark). It looks like Kmet will need two more full seasons to pass Dikta in receptions, and probably closer to 3.5 yrs to pass Dikta in yardage. So Kmet could do it when he is 29. Santos is still 4th in FGs, and only needs 2 more to be in 3rd all-time (Gould, Butler). He is now 7th in XPs and has a shot at 6th by the end of the year. Taylor extended his franchise lead for Gross Punt Average, now up to 47.6. His net of 39.7 and is % inside 20 (40.4%) are also franchise bests. Needless to say, even after a few terrible punts, he is still the best punter in franchise history, as a rookie. Carter is now 69th, yeah baybee, for kickoff return yards. His 31.3 yards per return is 2nd only to Sweetness (31.7) for KR Average.
  13. That's the goal right? Make more of these games winnable, but right now, this is a 5-6 win team. The entire O-Line needs to be overhauled and they need at least another DT and Edge before that can happen.
  14. Absolutely. Remember it was Polian helping with hires and or always hiring from within. Guys like Trace Armstrong have way too much pull in the organization for not being part of it. Armstrong was Nagy's agent, Flus' agent, Poles' agent, and Waldron's agent, maybe more. That is a huge problem if you ask me.
  15. Most Bears fans are numb this by now. So I can understand every range of emotion and don't blame people who want to cheer for a win or a loss at this point. It won't change the outcome on the field. In recent years, we have just 1 winning season in last 12, 8 double digit loss seasons, and only 1 double digit win season (2018). So if you are 20 yrs old or younger, that is all you probably know in your fandom, which is quite sad. I at least remember 85 and 2006, but we are about to be 18 yrs since the last time the Bears were in the SB. We deserve better.
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