adam

Also, a weird split. The Bears are 0-4 when Caleb passes for 320 or more yards, are 12-3 when he passes from between 220-320, and 7-12 when he passes for fewer than 220. So 220 is the magic number for him, and it seems that once you get too high (over 320) that they are trailing or in a shootout.

It's pretty insane. Last year thru 7 games, the average TOP was 29:34 with only two games over 30 mins out of 7. This year, the average TOP is 35:30 with 2 games over 40 mins, 6 over 30, and the lowest game of 29:36. So there is essentially a 6-minute gain in TOP from last year. The Bears current TOP is the highest I could find dating back to 2000. No other team was over 35 mins, and only 3 teams were over 34, the 2018 Ravens, 2001 Steelers, and 2000 Titans.

Thru 7 games, the Bears are a game ahead of last year's pace at 5-2. They lost to BAL to fall to 4-3 last year before rattling off 5 straight and 7 of 8. The offense is averaging 1.7 extra pts per game, 3.4 extra first downs, 40 more yards on offense with +0.7 extra turnovers per game. The only flaw being the extra turnovers. Honestly, I am surprised how close the numbers are. They would probably be a little better if Caleb didn't miss time, but it feels like the Bears offense has a floor, and 24 pts a game is the new 17 (in the Fields era). The defense is pretty shocking. They are allowing 6 fewer pts, 4.9 first downs, 37 fewer yards, and are averaging 0.86 fewer takeaways per game. The run defense is the biggest change from last year for either unit, averaging 55.7 fewer yards per game. The reason for the change is that the Bears are playing with the lead this year. They had 180 pass attempts with the lead for the entire year in 2025. They already have 121 thru 7 games.

Season Projections thru 7 games: Passing Williams 308-434, 71.0%, 3,570 YDS, 8.2 Y/A, 18 TD, 4 INT, 42 Sacks Rushing Swift 282-1,156-17 (Career Best 1,087) Monangai 210-1,134-11 (Career Best 783) Williams 84-448-7 (Career Best 489) Receiving Burden 85-1,192-5 (Career Best 652) Odunze 58-925-0 (Career Best 734) Loveland 63-592-5 (Career Best 713) Raymond 63-592-3 (Career Best 616) Swift 53-369-0 (Career Best 452) To get to 4K Passing, Caleb needs to average 298 a game for the last 10 games. Swift is about to have a record year for himself, on pace for ove 1,500 total yards and 17 TDs. I always thought of him a 3rd Down outside the numbers type of runner, at least when he was in Detroit. He has completely changed his game since coming to the Bears. He is 3rd in the NFC in rushing, only behind Bijan and Gibbs. If Monangai misses additional time, obviously his projection will drop, but right now the Bears have 2x 1,100 Rushers. That has only happened one other time, the 2009 Panthers with Stewart and Williams (16g season). Burden is a problem for the opponents. He is 9th in receptions, 8th in yards, but 18th in targets. He has the highest (YACOE) YAC over expected for WRs. He is already a top 10 WR in the NFL with the fewest targets of the bunch. If he gets more targets he will be in the top 5 easily. Odunze is settling in as a solid WR2, like Tee Higgins. Would be nice to see him come down with a few more balls and hit 1K. If Caleb is going to get to 4K, Odunze gets to 1K. There will be around 20 Receivers (WR+TE) with over 1K Receiving Yards this year. Would be crazy to have 2x 1K RBs and 2x 1K WRs in the same season. That has never happened before. Loveland started last season slow, with 11-116 yards thru his first 6 games, then exploded down the stretch, so I expect his number to go way up from the current projection. Especially with Kmet out for the year. Loveland will see more snaps.

So he couldn't declare because he is a Guard, and only the ends can declare, at least thats how I interpreted the rule. If he declared, and was at RT, he could've received the handoff that way. Not declaring, and at OG, he could only receive the ball lateral or behind. Which brings up an interesting wrinkle, they could pull a OG behind the QB and the QB could hand it to him legally.

Yep, his season % went up to 55.3%, absolutely bonkers. Penix is the only one close at 46.7%, Hurts at 40.0%, then Watson at 37.8%. Newton was at 44.8%, so now only Penix is within 10% in the NGS Era.

Yeah sucks for the longest-tenured Bear. At first I thought it was the helmet to the kneecap, but watching the replay, it was the step before that did it, non-contact, ACL and probably more. Season-ending IR and probably not back until August.

If Thuney declares as eligible, then it can be done forward. What this sort of implies is handoffs forward should be considered passes, because that is sort of the rule they are enforcing. An eligible receiver can receive a forward pass, but a lineman can only receive it laterally or behind.

Bears have 11 days between games. SEA, their next opponent, plays on Sunday Night Football, so the Bears will have a full +3 days of rest advantage. Typically, it is closer to 2.5 when teams playing at noon on Sunday. So the Bears get the longest possible rest advantage outside of a real bye week that you can get. Thru the first 7 weeks, the Bears are 5-2, and have weathered the storm of injuries. They are 13th in Passing Offense, 2nd in Rushing Offense, and 5th in Total Offense. On defense, they are 20th against the Pass, surprisingly 6th against the run, and 11th overall. They are also 8th in Scoring Offense and Scoring Defense. Right now there are 4 teams in the top 10 for Scoring Offense and Defense: SF, JAX, KC, and CHI. Pretty good company, a combined record of 19-4. The good news is only one of those teams is on their remaining schedule: JAX in Week 13 (in CHI). After the SEA game, the Bears get TB, their real bye, then NO. At a minimum, that should be 7-3 with a shot at 8-2. In that same window, MIN has @DET, BUF, @GB, and @SF. At best, that is probably 8-2, but could easily be 6-4 with 3 tough road games and BUF at home. So either way the Bears could be headed to DET for Thanksgiving in 1st place in the North. The crazy part is the NFC North champ will almost assuredly play one of the other NFC North teams in the Wild Card round. The sweet spot seems to be the 5th or 6th seed as those teams will play the NFC East Division winner (currently NYG at 3-2-1) or the NFC South winner (currently CAR at 3-2). The #2 Seed is more than likely going to be the NFC North winner who would play the #7 seed which is currently DET, and projected to be GB again.

The only thing I can think of for the slants over the middle is they are concerned about tipped passes because 5-15 yards inside the numbers seemed to have a ton of space and no routes were going there. That also feels like where Raymond had routes and he has rarely been targeted over the last few games. I would say, the fact that the Bears are 5-2 with one loss in a monsoon and one loss with Bagent starting is a great sign. It also feels like the Offensive Line is not as sharp as they were last season, for whatever reason. Bradbury vs Dalman maybe? CHI QBs have the most pressures against thru 7 games. Caleb's sack numbers are double what they were last year. You can attribute some of that to his injury, but not all of it.

Caleb is also now 19-19 as a starter and for the first time has a positive career EPA. He has been digging himself out of the hole from his rookie season. Career EPA now +0.6 lol.

TNF was a great comparison for the 3rd year QBs, both are really good and the top 2 of their class, and it is no longer even a discussion. It feels like it is now Caleb 1a, Drake 1b, then any other order of Nix, Daniels, McCarthy. Here are Caleb's numbers for the 3 games he finished: 73-98, 74.5%, 882 YDS, 9.0 Y/A, 5 TD, 0 INT For an entire season, that is 5K Passing yards and close to 30 Passing TDs. Caleb is the only QB in NFL history to throw for >8,500 yards, >50 TDs, <20 INTS, and rush for >1,000 yards in their first 38 games. Basically we are at a point where every start, he re-writes the record for that amount of games.

Cam Lewis is terrible, on par with Jaylon. Those two are huge liabilities. All the opposing team has to do is see where one of those guys are and target them. Another game like the ATL game where it was way closer than it needed to be. That 7 pts at the end of the half allowed them to kick the FG and go for 2, so that is 10 pts off the board for NE, and the missed FG for Santos. Should've been 33-16. This is the 3rd game this season where the opponent scored 23+ and the Bears won, that is a good sign for the offense, but as well as the defense played in the first 20 mins of the game, we need a complete game from them. Too many TDs being scored.

A win is a win but man. Jaylon Johnson responsible for at least 14 pts. He is cooked, slow, can't cover, can't tackle. Cam Lewis also a liability. Caleb with another 300 yard game with no picks. Burden on fire early. Odunze with some clutch catches late. Kmet is likely done for the year, helmet to the knee, did not look good. 5-2 heading into the mini bye. The next game is MNF in Seattle. With the injuries, especially to Caleb this is about as good as we could have hoped for thru 7 games. The crazy part is this team has not put played their best ball yet. We need Mack or a DT, potentially a CB and to get Bryant back.

Pass rush is not matching the coverage. Gotta have at least one safety over the top, too easy of a throw with no risk over the top.