adam

My perfect world prediction was: Williams 395-580, 68.1%, 4490 yds, 7.7 Y/A, 31 TD, 8 INT He does have Williams missing 2 games, so the TDs look spot on, but I doubt he doubles his INT rate. Also, if he only averages 35 extra passing yards a game with the addition of Ben Johnson, the new O-Line, Loveland, and Burden, then I still see that as a failure. Stroud threw for 4100 in 15 games as a rookie but Caleb with everything around him better will throw for 500 fewer yards?

Everyone can have an opinion, and it is always safer to go lower because that only increases the chances of the player of meeting the expectations, but in this case, this would not be a successful season for Caleb outside of the 28 TDs.

and he may only end up as a one year rental. Is he really going to play on the last year of his rookie deal without any future protection? If he sees himself as a WR1, I doubt he plays on a lame duck deal, especially knowing he won't be #1 in targets.

Williams had a 9-sack game, 2x 7's, and a 6. If there was improvement in just those 4 games to 2 sacks, that is a 21 sack reduction from 68 to 47 in just 4 games. Sacks make a whole bunch of other stats look horrible. EPA drops, QBR, and just about every other advanced passing metric really dock QBs hard for sacks, and in some cases, even more so than interceptions. So if Williams does cut his sack total in half, his advanced metric stats are going to look like they were shot out of a cannon. If you apply the updated projected sack totals to last year's QBR, he becomes a top 12 QBR QB without any other changes. He was 28th in QBR last year. That is how big sacks impact all the other stats.

I just find it funny that magically Dallas is now a Super Bowl contender, because they added a good WR2. Yet, if that is the case, then PIT should drop the same amount with the loss of that player, but they won't. Pickens is good, but not that good. Mooney has outperformed him over the last few years. For some reason the media makes him out to be some elite WR1 and yet he has never produced like one, even in college.

Yeah, it is definitely challenging to assess, but I think you have to break it down step by step at the time of execution. First, he made the trade assuming the 2024 QB Class would be better than the 2023 Class. He nailed that. Then there's getting Moore in the trade. Even with a terrible offense, Moore has been 6th in the NFL in receptions over the last two years and 8th in receiving yards. That's top-ten WR production. Adding Moore also ensured you had a solid eval of Fields. So I would say this was another feather for Poles. Then it's the Darnell Wright pick. Just exclusively evaluating Wright compared to other OL drafted around him (Paris Johnson, Skoronski, and Broderick Jones), Wright was the Wright pick. Then it comes up to the 2024 draft, I think we have to wait longer to assess if he got the picks correct, but at the time of the picks, I would've taken Williams and Odunze (or Bowers), so this is leaning towards being the right moves. Then he closed it out with the Burden pick. So he could've done things differently in hindsight, but at the time of the moves and state of the team, they seem to be as close to on point as you can get.

I just have to revisit this now. Caleb + Bowers + Irving alone would've been crazy.

Out of Thuney, Jones, Billings, Brisker, and Byard, Thuney is probably the one you extend, even if it is just for a 2nd year.

How many fewer sacks can we expect to see in 2025? New coaches, new scheme, revamped O-Line and 2 shiny new weapons. So Williams led the NFL in sacks last year with 68 on 562 passing attempts, which was the highest sack total since David Carr's 68 in 2005. At first I thought, ok, if he can drop by 20%, that would be solid. That would be 14 fewer sacks for a total of 54. That would've still led the league last season without Williams' 68. So it needs to be lower. So the next number is 33%, can he cut his sacks down by a third, so can he cut 23 sacks to go to 45? That would still be top 10 in sacks, but less than Burrow, Darnold, and Daniels. That seems a lot better. Bryce Young went from 62 to 29 from 2023 to 2024. Some of the raw total drop was tied to fewer attempts but he also dropped his Sack% by 3%. If we apply that same concept to Williams and say he cuts down his sack rate from 10.79% to 7%, his total using last year's numbers would be 44. So that 44 to 45 number seems legit and realistic. Now if we use those lost plays and apply them to his percentages, he instantly adds 170 yards of passing and 16 more completions to his numbers from last year without any other change. If Williams can improve on his comp% by 5%, that would add another 28 completions and 300 more yards. Now we are at 4K passing without any other changes than sack reduction and improved comp%. Now add better scheme/coaching + better O-Line + better weapons and I could easily see mid 4K passing for Williams in 2025. Of all the 2024 QB Draft Picks, I think he will lead them in several stats including passing yards.

I honestly think two things hurt Poles in his first few years as a GM, Eberflus and Fields. It seems he was forced to hire Eberflus or pick from a small list with Eberflus being the best option. Then having to figure out if Fields was the real deal or not as quickly as possible, which sort of forced the Claypool trade and overpay for Davis. Since that point, Poles has been about as good as you can be as a GM given the restraints and resources. Williams for Young straight up is a win for the Bears, but then when you think you ended up with 6 starters for that one pick is crazy, all thanks to Lovie and Davis Mills comeback win.

Not necessarily, but they would have to make room under the cap to actually sign them to a contract if that contract total for the year exceeds their available cap space, and once they get to 90 players, they would have to cut someone for the roster spot too. I think they will go into camp first and see what they got before committing any extra money out. Poles like that summer 2nd wave of free agency.

Pickens traded to DAL. Crazy to think of all the drama around him since the draft and he ends up getting traded for a future 3rd round pick. Good value for DAL. PIT basically swapped Pickens for Metcalf and dropped a 2nd to get a 3rd.

Without knowing if the rookies will even amount to anything, that seems like a risky proposition for the Bears at this point, but I could see Kmet moved before Moore, but not any earlier than the trading deadline. Moore is not even in the top 10 for WR AAV, and by next year, his deal will be a bargain AND he is signed for several more years. I would keep him at least thru 2026 or 2027, and that's only if Odunze and Burden rise to their potential.

It starts at the beginning of the new league year in March. However, the number of players doesn't matter; just the top 51 count against the cap for the entire season.

Yes, so there is a total rookie pool and an effective cap hit, which subtracts the bottom players (in the top 51) that count against the cap as they are replaced by the new player. For simple math, just subtract $1M from each's players 2025 cap hit, so only Loveland, Burden, Trapilo, and Turner will be the only ones that count negatively against the cap. All the other players are a wash. Last year if Rome got $4.1 and he bumped a guy making $1M, the cap only dropped by $3.1M to add him, Kiran only 300K.