adam

thanks and yes, probably the most important part of the FFB season is getting your pre-draft rankings in shape.

Week 5 against the Packers is 9 weeks 6 days away, with recovery and ramp up, I assume that is another 2 weeks. So if he is on the low side of 8 weeks, he has a chance to play in Week 5. If it is the high end, more like Week 7 against the Patriots. Either way, if there was ever a stretch to miss, this is probably it: Panthers, Vikings, Eagles (no AJ Brown), Jets, Packers, Falcons, Patriots (now have AJ Brown). It would be sweet to get him back for the Packers game as that is the only one where I would be concerned about the defense up until that game.

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I can understand why DET is being projected to win the division in a lot of places. The easiest schedule alone will give them a few more wins. However, I have no clue why some projections have GB in 2nd. Everyone seems to be inflating players that have never achieved heights they are expecting. First, there is Watson, somehow, he is being anointed as a sure-fire WR1, yet he has never topped 41 receptions and 620 Receiving Yards but is magically going to hit 80-1000 this season in Year 5? He has also never played more than 15 games. To me, Watson is who he is. An explosive WR, when healthy, but more boom or bust than consistent WR1. I don't see him doubling his career high in receptions. Then there is Golden, their 2025 1st Round pick (picked ahead of Burden). He is a 2nd Year WR that only put up 29 receptions and 361 Receiving Yards and no TDs, and is also going to magically put up 80-1000 this season too? Will he have a better season, sure, but he is not tripling his receptions and receiving yards in one offseason. Especially if they expect Watson to as well. Then you have Kraft. People are treating him like an All-Pro. This is a TE who maxed out at 50 receptions, 707 Receiving Yards, is now an All-Pro coming off an ACL injury. These career numbers are on par with Kmet's career numbers. Another super weird projection. I can see him putting up 50-700 again, but that's it. Their O-Line, which was bottom-10 last year, who arguably got worse in the offseason, is magically going to be better this year? Again, does the GB coaching staff have magic fairy dust? I think they will be bottom-10 again. Their defense, which was a top 10 unit in 2025 will also be better with their star Edge coming off an ACL injury and operating in an entirely new defense. Did people forget how good Hafley was as a DC? If anything they will regress. I feel much better when you compare what the Bears have and why their projections are what they are. Odunze is an 1100 Yard WR if he didn't get hurt. Burden's and Loveland's usage completely changed in the 2nd half of the season. Loveland had 5 receptions thru 5 games, then had 53 in the remaining 12. So he almost averaged 5 per game the rest of the way. Projected for a full season, +100 receptions, +1200 Yards. Burden? While Loveland went up 5x, Burden basically went up 4x. Now when you add Moore being gone, all 3 of those guys will see a target increase. All 3 were also more efficient pass catchers than Moore. So Williams numbers should benefit.

There is an expected drop off in takeaways with the top 4 guys (Byard 7, Wright 5, Edmunds 4, and CJGJ 2) all off the roster. With Brisker's 1, that is 19 INTs off the roster. However, in place of that, we get Bryant who had 4, Thieneman good for 2, a healthy Jaylon Johnson good for 3, Bush had 3, and whoever replaces CJGJ's snaps gets 1. That is 13 without being extremely optimistic. Also, the consensus was the 2025 players would not produce those numbers in 2026 anyway. So those 19 could easily be down to 13 or 14. In line with the new player projections.

I didn't clarify enough, I mean the window between Thursday night, September 3rd at 7pm Central <----------->and Sunday Night, September 6th at 9pm Central. Your Tuesday Night is clear.

I am getting 2013 vibes from this offense. Last year's offense was 9th in pts and 6th in yards. In 2013, they were 2nd in pts and 8th in yards. I think this offense will be the first one to be top 5 in both pts and yards. That would be a first for the team in the Super Bowl era. You have to go back to 1965 to find a Bears offense that finished top 5 in both yards and points. That makes it easier on the defense, because if they can play with a lead more often, that puts the other team in more predictable situations. The defense finished 23rd in pts and 29th in yards. I don't expect a huge jump but even if they finish top 20 in both, while the offense ascends, that is the formula for a perennial playoff team.

I am trying to narrow down the live draft window. The best window is Thursday night, September 3rd at 7pm Central through Sunday Night, September 6th at 9pm Central. I know we have GMs all over the world, so please let me know by August 8th, what time/date you prefer and if there is a time/date you cannot make it. Once I get that info, I will lock our draft in on the 9th of August to give GMs a few weeks to set their pre-draft rankings and lock in their keepers. Also, don't forget the league dues through LeagueSafe.

I would not be surprised if Loveland has over 1K Receiving Yards and 10 TDs.

It still feels like they will bring in a vet at Edge if they don't like what they see in the next few weeks.

Once the injury stuff popped up, there is no way you take him that early. The Bears already have enough young guys injured or who missed time last year, they didn't need another high risk injury guy.

Still wild that Caleb is the only QB in NFL history with this stat line in their first two seasons >7K Passing Yards, >40 Passing TDs, <20 INTs, >500 Rushing Yards, and he has crushed all those numbers: 7,483 Passing Yds, 47 TDs, 13 INTs, 877 Rushing Yds The two closest QBs are: Burrow had 7,299/47/19/260 Stroud had 7,835/43/17/400 For their first 3 seasons, Kyler Murray is the gold standard for the combination of Passing Yards, TDs, and Rushing Yards, though he threw 34 INTs. After 3 seasons, he compiled 11,480 Pass Yards, 70 TD, 34 INT, and 1,786 Rush Yards. Caleb can easily surpass Murray in every category except Rushing Yards.

If they trade him, it would have to be in-season. If they don't extend him, which is unlikely, then I assume he becomes a free agent and hopefully a comp pick for the Bears in the future.

With no other change than Comp%, if Caleb gets back to his rookie Comp%, +4.4% from last year, with all else equal, he would throw for 298 more yards (25 more completions), which would put him at 4,239 yards and 29 TDs and basically MVP#s (Maye put up 4,394 and 31). That is with no other change. So with any actual improvement, fewer drops, fewer throwaways, that is probably closer to his floor than his ceiling.

Stevenson is going into Year 4, I don't know how much more he can improve from here on out. Typically, a player is who he is at this point. Only 1 INT last year, when the Bears led the league in takeaways, is not a good look. Outside of the forced fumble, which was a big play, there was very little from him last year. The only thing that may make him improve is that he is in a contract year.