adam

It is all about offensive efficiency. With the raw numbers, DET's offense looks relatively the same, but it is way different than last year. DET was a +0.15 EPA/Play last year,+0.25 per pass and +0.04 per rush. This season? DET is down to +0.05 EPA/P (-0.10), +0.12 per pass (-0.13) and -0.06 per rush (-0.10). So their passing efficiency got cut in half, their rushing went from a net positive to a net negative, resulting in a 66% relative drop in overall offensive efficiency. 3rd Downs? They went from 47.6% to 38.3%, a 9% drop. % of scoring drives 51.6% to 43.8%, an 8% drop. The Bears on the other hand went from -0.13 to +0.03 for EPA/P (+0.16), -0.15 to +0.02 per pass (+0.17), and -0.09 to +0.05 per rush (+0.14). The Bears on 3rd Downs: 32.9% to 43.1%, a 10% gain. % of scoring drives 29.8% to 44.6%, a 15% gain. So the raw stats are still there, but the efficiency of the offense is now with the Bears. It seems like they are running relatively the same offense, but every game, and every season, they will be that much more removed from it. I would expect some of the raw numbers to start falling off next year. With the easier schedule, that roster can still compete, but I don't see them being a juggernaut anymore. Goff has a $69M cap hit next season, St. Brown's is $33M. So between those two players, over $100M. Sewell is $28M and McNeill is $29M, that's another $57M, so $160M in 4 players, that's crazy.

Swift, currently has the 29th best rushing season in franchise history with 1,047 rushing yards, can break into the top 25 with 32 yards (passing Neal Anderson), and an outside shot at the top 20 with 80 rushing yards (passing Casares). Swith has over 2K rushing as a Bear, within 9 more yards he would pass Brad Muster for 20th. Monangai needs 33 rushing yards to pass Montgomery's 2022 for 50th all-time. DJ Moore just passed 3K Receiving Yards as a Bear, good for 17th all-time. Kmet is 19th at 2,923. For receptions, Kmet is 10th at 286, Moore is 14th at 243. Moore needs 4 to pass Bobby Engram for 13th all-time. If the Bears win against DET, Ben Johnson will have the highest winning pct of any HC in Bears history (tied with Ralph Jones) with a full season of coaching. Just a snippet of what is to come: Burden's last 3 games: 18-289-1, would be over 100 receptions and 1,600 receiving yards for a full season. Loveland's last 3 games: 13-187-1, would be over 70 receptions and 1,000 receiving yards for a full season.

The highest odds are that the Bears play GB at home in the WC Round, then PHI (Double Doink Revenge Game) at home in the Divisional Round, followed by SF in SF for the NFCC. Can you imagine that slate of games?

no problem. After the SF game, the Bears are now 3rd in Total Offense, 9th in EPA/P, 9th in TDs, 10th in scoring, 3rd in Rush YPG, 11th in Pass YPG, and 11th in QB Pressure rate. Pretty much a top 10 offense across the board in every metric. They have scored an offensive TD in every game and have only two games where they scored fewer than 21 pts.

He 25th in Rushing Yards himself, and the #1 RB2 almost 100 yards ahead of Montgomery who is the 2nd best RB2.

With one week left, this is quite surprising. I know injuries and playing time impacted the numbers, but it has been since Kendall Wright led the team in receiving that the Bears top Receiver had fewer than 750 yards receiving. Moore 49-671-6 Loveland 48-622-5 Odunze 44-661-6 Burden 44-617-2 There is an outside shot that the Bears end up with 4 Receivers with over 50 Receptions and 700 Receiving Yards. The fact that they are so close is really impressive.

With how the Bears have played at home vs on the road, it just feels like guaranteeing the most home games is the most ideal route. Their last 4 losses have been on the road and their only home loss was what ended up as the Week 1 fluke against MIN.

If the Bears played that game at home, they probably win by a TD.

Yeah, the final drive was kind of hectic. From 2:15 to 0:40 secs, there were no CHI timeouts used. They used 51 seconds to gain 16 yards, then 39 seconds to gain another 18 yards. They also had to waste one on 3rd Down after an incompletion, which may have allowed them to get the 4th Down call right, but then it required another timeout after that play. It sucks because they got one play from 1st and goal at the 2 instead of 2 or 3. The odds of scoring from the 2 (like a 2-pt conversion is like 50%), so even a 2nd play, and they probably score.

and they are technically the easiest matchup as every other one is either SF, SEA, or LAR.

It will be interesting to see what Dan Campbell actually does. Will he rest any key starters in what is a meaningless game for DET, who have lost 3 straight, and 4 out of 5? With a chance at the playoffs still on the line, they lost to MIN 23-10 and looked like they didn't care. My hope is DET doesn't risk Week 18 injuries for their core players and the Bears can handily win and put the game out of reach by halftime, then rest their own starters with the game in hand. Bears 30-10. Bears get locked into the #2 Seed with a home playoff game against GB the following weekend. GB would be in MIN having to travel back home, then to CHI for WC Weekend.

Here are the projected paths: #2 Seed - at least 2 home games, one vs GB, and the DIV round vs PHI or Week 18 loser of SEA/SF. Possibly a 3rd home game for NFCC vs LAR (LAR beats #1 Seed). #3 Seed - at least 1 home game, on road in PHI for DIV round or at home vs LAR in DIV Round (if GB beat PHI). The #1 Seeds make the SB 50% of the time, so there is a high chance that one of the two #1 seeds will make the SB. However, in the last 5 years, only one #1 Seed has won it (KC). If you take KC out of the equation, non-KC teams are 6-7 in the playoffs as #1 Seeds with only 2 SB visits (both losses).

Needs 82 scrimmage yards to hit 1K. He has 769 Rushing Yards, and 149 Receiving Yards. He has hit 82+ yards 4 times this season, all within the last 11 games. Crazy production from RB2 7th Rounder.

Caleb is 8th in Passing Yards, T-7th in Passing TDs, T-4th in INTs with a 90.3 QB Rating. Ultimately no need to keep track of his progress, he has arrived. This will be his worst season under Johnson statistically from here on out.

Now has 48 receptions for 622 yards and 5 TDs on the season. That is the most for a Bears TE since Kmet's 719 in 2023 (on 73 receptions). In the Super Bowl era, Dikta, Dewveal, Bennett, and Kmet are the only TEs in Bears history to have 650+ receiving yards in a season. Desmond Clark had 626. Loveland is having the 2nd best season in Bears history for a rookie TE, only to Dikta's 1,076 yards and 12 TDs in 1961 (in 14 games which is insane). Loveland also has a +43.2 REC EPA, 3rd to only McBride and Kittle. McBride has 161 targets, Loveland has 69.