adam

Welcome Back GMs! I just wanted to send out a early notice before the seasonal break before things ramp back up in a month. We will schedule the draft for the last week before the regular season kickoff (AUG 31st to SEP 7th). I would like to have Keepers identified and dues submitted a week prior to that (by AUG 24) to give everyone some time to set their draft order knowing who is already taken. So once we set an exact draft date, I will also set the keeper and dues date at that time. These were the keepers from last year, you cannot keep the same player in back-to-back seasons: 2025 TB Keepers The Bunny - Nabers & Hubbard Bum Fights - Pollard My Team Sucks - Thomas Jr. Trench Warfare - Hockenson & Burrow Nips&Tips - Henry & Brown Scotty Doesn't Know - Higgins & Williams Hock Tua on my Chubby - Bowers SAVAGEw/LOOSEMORALS! - Swift Nopper - Barkley & Jeudy Win in Rome - Cook For keepers, the first keeper loses one round, so a guy picked in the 3rd last year would cost you your 2nd rounder this year. For the 2nd keeper, you would lose 2 rounds, so a 6th from last year loses you a 4th from this year. Keepers are optional. To qualify, they must have been drafted by you and on your final roster: Final rosters: https://football.fantasysports.yahoo.com/f1/97918/lastseason Draft results: https://football.fantasysports.yahoo.com/f1/97918/draftresults?drafttab=team&draft_results_period=previous If you have any questions, let me know.

The Bears finished the season one playoff OT loss from the NFCC and playing the Super Bowl champs, so that puts them ahead of all but 4-5 teams in the NFL to start this offseason. To me, that makes you a 10-12 win team coming in. If Caleb and the offense take the next step with Loveland, Burden, and Odunze leading the way, I think your assessment of 11 wins to SB is spot on. If they miss the playoffs, everything went wrong, the defense allowed the same number of yards without the takeaways, the offense didn't take the next step, or they were hit with too many injuries. I would not surprised to see a huge drop in takeaways, but also a lot more defensive stops and forced punts ending drives before teams can score. Last season was either the other team scoring or a takeaway. That is not sustainable. With the additions of Bush, Bryant, and Thieneman, I feel like the defense as a whole will be more efficient getting the other team off the field in a more consistent manner. The team speed will limit the extra easy yards teams were getting. The SF game from last year comes to mind. No way is Purdy going to be able to dance around and tip toe into the end zone on a scramble with the amount of space Bush, Bryant, and Thieneman can cover.

Hey AG, you have to get out and enjoy the 24 hours of daylight before you have none lol. I hope all is well in Alaska.

Bears sign LB Tony Fields II from the UFL. I wonder if they will bring Wheeler back, who looked really good in live action.

They can make a parking lot on the Illinois side of Wolf Lake. Would that satisfy people? Fort Campbell's address is in KY, but most of the fort is in Tennessee.

Why does some arbitrary line on a map determine fandom? How long have both the Jets and Giants played in East Rutherford, NJ? The Cowboys play in Arlington, 49ers play in Santa Clara, Rams/Chargers play in Inglewood. Do fans really stop rooting for their team if they move outside of city limits? On the flip side, does that mean if you do not live within city limits, you can't root for your favorite team? At the end of the day, whatever puts the best team on the field while providing the fans with the best live experience should be all the fans are worried about. If they get lower taxes and that gives the team more capital for higher guaranteed contracts, then that is a good thing. Remember that teams are required to pay 100% of guaranteed money into an escrow account upon contract signing. That is why guaranteed money is becoming the most important value of a contract to track.

The Panthers were 8-9 last year but somehow beat the Rams, Packers, and Cowboys. I think with a lot of predictions, people come up with a number, then have to figure out how those play out instead of treating each game individually. The Panthers haven't won in Week 1 since 2021. Bryce Young has played in 3 Week 1 games, in each one, he has thrown 2 INTs, averaged 154 yards passing. The last time the Bears played CAR was in 2024, where the Bears won 36-10. I would be shocked if they lose.

2nd year in DA's system, hopefully fewer injuries, a full year of Johnson+Gordon with the additions of Bryant and Thieneman should make the secondary elite. Couple that with Devin Bush at LB and the back 7 is going to be elite. The front 4 just need to be average. The Bears will surely have fewer takeaways, they had 33, the middle of the league had 20. The defense allowed 347 first downs, 330 was the middle of the league. So if they can get to league average on both, forcing 17 more punt/FGs vs 13 takeaways, it is basically a push on those two factors alone. They allowed the 4th most yards, 600 more than the league average, over 35 yards per game. Coupled with the penalty disparity, they were giving up an extra 50 yards per game. If that trends towards the league average, even by half (25 yards), that would be 425 yards on the year an entire game's worth of offense output reduced. That is basically 2-3 pts a game in their favor. So some close losses become wins, and close wins become 6 to 7 pt wins, etc.

People seem to memory hole the fact that the Bears had a ton of injuries on defense last year. Gordon and Johnson played in 1 game together, against PHI. Gordon only played in 3 games total. Johnson only played starter level snaps in 2 games. To put this into perspective, Nahshon Wright played 1041 snaps, Johnson and Gordon combined had 400. Nick freaking McCloud had 436. There were at least 2 weeks, where the Bears starting LBs started the season as LB4 and lower. Edmunds and Edwards combined to miss 11 games. Sewell missed 5. Turner (high draft pick) and Odeyingbo (FA $ signing) missed a combined 22 games. Booker missed another 7. Jarrett missed 3 and seemed limited for most of the year. Injuries are part of the game, but the Bears were missing at least 2+ starter/key contributor on defense every week last season. Half the starting defense was missing for 3 weeks 12-14 last year. The patchwork was crazy. Week 1 - No Johnson, Gordon, Edwards, or Booker (4) Week 2 - No Gordon, Booker, only 20 snaps for Johnson (2.5) Week 3 - No Johnson, Gordon, Edwards, or Booker (4) Week 4 - No Johnson, Gordon, Edwards, Jarrett, or Booker (5) Week 6 - No Johnson, Jarrett, or Booker (3) Week 7 - No Johnson, Jarrett, or Booker (3) Week 8 - No Johnson, Gordon, Stevenson, or Booker (4) - Literally no CBs Week 9 - No Johnson, Gordon, or Turner (3) Week 10 - No Johnson, Gordon, Edwards, Turner, or Odeyingbo (5) Week 11 - No Johnson, Gordon, Edwards, Turner, or Odeyingbo (5) Week 12 - No Johnson, Gordon, Edwards, Edmunds, Sewell, Turner, or Odeyingbo (7) Week 13 - No Edwards, Edmunds, Stevenson, Sewell, Turner, or Odeyingbo (6) - Literally no LBs Week 14 - No Edmunds, Gordon, Stevenson, Turner, or Odeyingbo, Sewell 1 snap (6) Week 15 - No Edmunds, Gordon, Turner, or Odeyingbo, Sewell 3 snaps (4.9) Week 16 - No Gordon, Sewell, Turner, or Odeyingbo (4) Week 17 - No Gordon, Turner, or Odeyingbo (3) Week 18 - No Gordon, Turner, or Odeyingbo (3)

The way I see it is if they finish with 8 or 9 wins and miss the playoffs, it will be a disappointing season. There is no way around it. I feel like 10-11 is probably the realistic target, and 12+ wins is if everything goes right.

The 2025 Bears vs the 2026 schedule = 8 or 9 win team, but this is not the 2025 Bears. This is the 2nd year in the system. DET jumped 3 games in each the 2nd and 3rd years of Johnson's offense. They went from 9-8, to 12-5, to 15-2.

It is a new year, but there are several ways to look at this. If you are looking at last year as a fluke, then sure, regression will happen just based on the competition level, but that typically is only related to 3 games on the schedule per year that factor in. However, just on paper, only 4 teams had a better record than the Bears last year (that they play). So if you just used that as a measuring stick, the Bears should only lose 4 games, if nothing else is considered. The Bears have the 3rd fewest miles traveled, the most rest differential, and a favorable bye week. None of those may matter, but rarely are the Bears afforded those hidden benefits related to rest and recovery. The Bears season is going to come down to their division record. They lost 2 games outside of the Division last year. So just say they lose 4, 2 of the 3 games against 1st place teams, but go from 2-4 to 4-2 in the division. They would still end up at 11-6. So they really need to sweep MIN, and at least split with GB and DET.

DET is probably gonna win 12+ games, NO, NYJ, CAR, ARZ, MIA, TB, ATL, TEN, and NYG. They don't play GB or CHI on the road until Weeks 17 and 18. By then they may have already won 12 games. GB and MIN both look like 9 win teams, plus or minus a win. So I think it is going to come down to CHI and DET between 11 and 13 wins, and GB and MIN between 8-10 wins. Just based on the current schedules, DET probably has the edge

Interestingly enough, BUF plays GB on SNF before traveling home to play the Bears the next Saturday. The Bears play MIA at noon, so the Bears actually have a 7 hour edge in rest. Also, leading up to the Bears game, BUF plays in GB, in NE, and at home against KC before playing the Bears. They may be beat up and tired by then. Then for the Christmas game, because the Bears play BUF on Saturday, they have an extra day of rest compared to GB who plays on Sunday, then the Bears on Friday.

There are so many things actually going the Bears way related to the schedule, they have the ideal bye week, the 3rd fewest travel miles, and have the most rest differential. Bears are favored in 12 games, so everything is checking out across different metrics.