adam

I know it is asking a lot, but I want to see it for at least one more game. Why? Because Swift never had 3 great games in a row. It is really baffling. Here are his games before and after 100 yard rushing games in his career: 2020 - 22, 116, 27 2021 - 27, 130, 136, 0 2022 - 144*, 56 *-Week 1 2023 - 3, 175, 130, 56 2024 - 91, 129, 51 2025 - 38, 108, 124, ? His highest total in any of the 3 games that follows a 100-yd game is 71. The most likely yardage for him following a 2nd 100-yd game is 53. He has never had 3 straight games with 75+ rushing yards in his career.

Yeah good find. Offense up 7.4% and defense down 7.1% (which is better). Interesting nugget when looking at those. The Bears have the 2nd lowest penalized defense with 30 penalties for 209 yards. That is hard to believe considering how many bogus calls they have received. The offense is the 8th most penalized unit with 53-454 yards. So as a team, the Bears are a net -245 in penalty yards. That is almost an entire game's worth of yardage over 6 weeks, or 41 yards per game. That is way too high. The Bears lead the league in Turnover Differential at +11, which is the total of the 4th and 5th best teams combined at +6 and +5.

Lamar has not practiced yet, so this is something to watch. If he is out, this becomes much easier.

Since the Hail Mary game, Daniels has now went 14 games without passing for 280 yards and has went 8 straight without a Comp% over 75. I still think it is wild that a QB can be getting so much hype for passing for 222 yards against TEN.

Now thru 6 games, the sample size is more meaningful. In 2024, the offense had a league low 283.5 yds a game (32nd), averaged 18.2 pts per game (28th), with a -0.13 EPA/Play (26th). In 2025, the offense is 13th in YPG at 346.5, averaging 25.3 pts per game (11th) with an EPA/Play of -0.01 (T-13th). So points up 7.1 pts per game, yardage up 63 yards per game, and EPA/P up 0.12 per play. I would say that is tangible improvement across the board from last season. QBP Rate and sacks are also down. On defense, the Bears are 25th in pts allowed, at 25.8 PPG, 25th in YPG at 350.0, yet their EPA/Play is -0.09, good for 8th. Last year the defense was 27th in YPG at 354.2, but only 13th in PPG at 21.8, and their EPA/Play was -0.05, good for 14th. So the team is allowing 4 more pts per game, 4 fewer yards, and are 0.04 better per play. The net differential is basically a FG, which makes sense that the Bears are now winning close games they were losing last year. That all equates to the 12th best offense and 19th best defense thru 6 games, the 16th best team, and they currently hold the 7th seed in the NFC heading into MNF.

D'Andre Swift has the 2nd most runs of 10+ yards with 15. Taylor leads the league with 18. However, Taylor has 42 more carries than Swift, so Swift technically has more +10 yard rushes per attempt than anyone in the NFL (16.9%). Gibbs+Montgomery have 15 combined.

This game is a completely different story if the refs called an even game. It is a 40-10 blowout. Same for last week. The silver lining is the old Bears would shit their pants and lose. This is a different team.

Caleb is currently 19th in QB Rating, 17th in Passing Yards per game, not that you would know it, but he has a higher per game average than Nix, Daniels, and Rattler. Penix has him by 9 yards and Maye by 24 yards. There are 18 QBs who have taken more sacks than him and only 5 QBs with fewer INTs with the same number of attempts. Caleb's biggest issue is accuracy which impacts the Comp%. If that improves, he magically becomes a top 10 QB overnight from a top 15-20 right now.

As much as the passing game and Caleb need to improve, they have scored 21 or more in every game. I think there was so much emphasis put on the run game over the bye that it may have impacted the passing game a little bit. Again, no excuses, Caleb has to be more accurate. Odunze needs to catch the ball, and the Bears need to get some calls go there way or at least not have bogus calls against them.

I think it will be close, maybe a team scores late to make it look worse, but I think the game will be back and forth all game within a score. The Ravens haven't scored much with Jackson out, but that doesn't discount the fact that their defense has allowed 37, 38, 41, and 44 pts in 4 of their 5 losses. I think the Bears will be in the mid-20s again, maybe hit 30, while the Ravens will be in that same range. Either team can win 31-21 and I would not be surprised. Would it have made a difference if the Bears scored on the last drive instead of running the clock out to make it 33-14?

Week 7 - Nix with a huge comeback, 33 pts scored in the 4th quarter, Maye with a solid game against TEN. Rattler threw 3 INTs and lost a fumble and his QBR dropped less than Williams, who plummeted from 60.4 to 52.0, his worst game of the season, and worst since NE last season where he had a 11.9. 1. Maye - 96.4 QBR - 222 yds. 2 TD, 0 INT, 4 sacks, and 62 rushing yds. 284 Total Yards. Won. / Season QBR: 77.1, 1744 yards, 12-2 TD-INT 2. Nix - 82.4 QBR - 279 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT, 2 sacks, and 48 rushing yds. 327 Total Yards. Won. / Season QBR: 56.2, 1556 yards, 11-4 TD-INT 3. Rattler - 30.5 QBR - 233 yds, 2 TD, 3 INT, 4 Sacks, and 12 rushing yds. 245 Total Yards. Lost. / Season QBR: 55.7, 1450 yards, 8-4 TD-INT, 1 FL 4. Williams - 19.8 QBR - 172 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT, 1 Sack. 170 Total Yards. Won / Season QBR: 52.0, 1351 yards, 9-3 TD-INT 5. Penix - 30.0 QBR - 241 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT, 2 Sacks, and 6 rushing yds. 247 Total Yards. Lost. / Season QBR: 48.3, 1409 yards, 5-3 TD-INT, 1 FL 6. Daniels - 45.8 QBR - 156 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT, 2 sacks, and 35 rushing yds. 191 Total Yards. Lost. / Season QBR: 51.8, 875 yards, 7-1 TD-INT, 2 FL 7. McCarthy - Always hurt / Season QBR: 23.9 (Last in NFL), 301 yards, 2-3 TD-INT

I think any time you hit the QB in the head they will call it, even though I thought that one was weak. Check out the play where Caleb avoids the sack and gets the pass to Swift. The DT takes an extra step after the ball came out to then land all his body weight on the QB. That is always a penalty. No call. Loveland's OPI call (now in back to back weeks). Saints RT false start on first TD, would've basically forced a FG.

Johnson did call a good game. Just like last week though, a couple of bogus calls negate positive plays. They may not be much in the big scheme of things, but they add up. It is the difference between 57% and 65% Comp, 172 Yards Passing and 220. Only one sack. A lot of QBs struggling. Love with under 90 Yards passing thru the 3rd Quarter in ARZ. Nix under 100 and being shutout by the Giants.

The Passing game has not been good, but it could be this: 9-17, 45 yds, 0 TD 6-12 46 yds , 0 TD 15-29, 91 yds, 0 TD, 12 sacks, -76 yds 15 Net passing yds over the last two games.

As bad as the passing game looked today, the Bears still won the TOP battle 36 mins to 23 mins. So the defense played well and was well rested. The running game really took pressure off the entire team.