adam

That would suck. It almost seems like they are circumventing the system.

I know, it's odd. Where is all the coffin corner stuff? He was showing off these kicks in the offseason that have backspin, now all his kicks hit the 10 and bounce right through the end zone. Has to be coaching.

GB Defense is still not the same without Parsons. Offense is less efficient without Kraft. Bears 6-2 at home, Packers 4-4-1 on the road. Using the last 4 games, the Bears have a distinct advantage, Congunkulator is showing a 6-point victory, 27-21. Whoever scores more than 21 first wins.

You are correct that net punting and punting yards are impacted by field position as someone punting from their own 20 can boom it without the risk of a touchback. The two areas that are not impacted as much by that are the Inside the 20% and the Touchback%. Preferably you want the highest In20% with the lowest TB%. So just using those and the combination of those. Taylor was the 5th worst punter for TB%, and the 9th worst for In20%. For the combination of the 2, he ranked as the 27th Punter. Only 4 punters had a worse ratio than him in 2025.

Possible, but another factor, Taylor is like Velus, he was older for a college player. So normally older dudes dominate against 18 and 19 yr olds. Not that it totally relates to Taylor, but he was already maxed out at Iowa and wasn't going to get better in the NFL. If anything, he would get worse, which is exactly what has occurred. There are only 2 active punters drafted higher than Taylor, Wishnowsky in SF (2019), and Anger in Dallas (2012 by JAX).

Grok: Based on the provided scenario for this 2025 NFL Wild Card matchup at Soldier Field, the Chicago Bears have several advantages that tilt the scales in their favor. They boast a stronger regular-season record (11-6 vs. 9-7-1), home-field advantage in a cold-weather venue where they've performed well (6-2 at home), and momentum from their recent 22-16 overtime victory over the Packers just three weeks ago in the same stadium. That game showcased Chicago's opportunistic defense, which led the NFL in takeaways (33) and turnover differential (+22), forcing key mistakes while allowing the Bears to rally from a 10-point deficit late. The Packers are entering on a four-game losing streak, with their defense severely compromised since losing edge rusher Micah Parsons to a torn ACL in Week 15—he led the team with 12.5 sacks, and Green Bay has allowed the most rushing yards per game (170.8) in the league since his absence, with only three sacks total in that span. While Jordan Love returns after missing the last 2.5 games due to a concussion (he's cleared protocol and reports no rust concerns), his layoff could lead to early timing issues against a Bears secondary that snagged a league-high 23 interceptions. Love's 2025 stats were solid (66.3% completion, 3,831 yards, 23 TDs, 6 INTs in 15 games), but Chicago's pass rush and ball-hawking could exploit any hesitation. Offensively, Bears QB Caleb Williams (3,942 yards, 27 TDs, 7 INTs) has thrived in clutch moments with six fourth-quarter comebacks, supported by a balanced run game featuring D'Andre Swift (1,087 yards) and Kyle Monangai (783 yards)—the only tandem with 750+ yards each. Green Bay's run defense ranks near the bottom, setting up Chicago to control the clock and limit Love's opportunities. The Packers' offense, led by a healthy Josh Jacobs and receivers like Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs, and Jayden Reed, remains potent, but Chicago's ability to force turnovers (they're 9-1 when holding opponents under 25 points) should keep this close yet decisive. Predicted outcome: Bears win, advancing to the Divisional Round. Predicted score: Bears 27, Packers 23. (This aligns with recent rivalry trends of one-score games and the 45.5 over/under, expecting defensive plays but enough offensive fireworks from both QBs.)

Here is what some AIs think of the game, just for fun, not that they mean anything, but I do like them coming up with key factors on their own. Gemini: Based on the current NFL landscape for the 2025-2026 Wild Card round, here is an analysis and prediction for the game. Game Snapshot Matchup: Green Bay Packers (9-7-1) at Chicago Bears (11-6) Location: Soldier Field, Chicago, IL Time: Saturday, January 10, 2026, 7:00 PM CT Context: This is the third meeting of the season. They split the regular season series, but the Bears won the most recent critical matchup in Week 16 (22-16 in OT). Key Factors 1. The Momentum Disparity The trajectories of these two teams could not be more different. The Bears finished the season strong to clinch the NFC North, securing their first division title since 2018. Conversely, the Packers are "limping" into the playoffs, having lost four straight games (Weeks 15-18). Historically, teams entering the playoffs on such a cold streak struggle to flip the switch, especially on the road. 2. The Micah Parsons Loss The loss of Micah Parsons to season-ending surgery is catastrophic for the Packers' pass rush. Parsons was the "queen on the chessboard" for defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley. Without his ability to wreck game plans, the Packers' defense (which surrendered 41 points to the Ravens and 30+ to the Broncos during this losing streak) will struggle to pressure Caleb Williams. This puts immense pressure on the Packers' secondary to cover for longer periods. 3. Jordan Love's Return vs. Bears Defense While Jordan Love insists he has "zero concerns" about rust, missing the last two weeks with a concussion is significant. He is returning to face a Bears defense that led the NFL in takeaways (33) this season. In their Week 16 matchup, Love left the game early, but the Bears' defense was already stifling the Packers' attack. If Love is even a split-second slow in his processing, the Bears' opportunistic secondary is likely to capitalize. 4. The Soldier Field Advantage The atmosphere at Soldier Field on a Saturday night in January will be hostile. The Bears have not hosted a playoff game in years, and the crowd will be energized by the chance to knock out their arch-rivals. Caleb Williams has shown significant growth in Year 2, and the Bears' run game has been effective enough to control the clock in cold weather. Prediction: Chicago Bears Win The cards are stacked against Green Bay. They are traveling to a hostile environment, missing their best defensive player, starting a quarterback returning from a head injury, and reeling from a month of losing football. The Bears, meanwhile, have found their identity under head coach Ben Johnson and have the defensive personnel to make life miserable for a rusty Packers offense. Expect the Bears to rely on their run game and defense to control the tempo. Green Bay may keep it close early on emotion, but the absence of Parsons will eventually allow the Bears' offense to pull away in the second half. Predicted Score: Chicago Bears 24, Green Bay Packers 17

The line opened at Packers -1.5, and that was with the Bears winning the division by 1.5 games, the Packers losing their last 4 games, the Packers losing the last meeting, and the game at Soldier Field.

Hightower still needs to go. He has turned a 4th Round punter who consistently hit 70-yarders into a noodle leg. In almost every game, the coverage units gave up more field position than they gained. If it was not for the kicking heroics or the blocked FG, he would probably be fired.

Damn, weather will impact this game. Looks like there will be snow and wind. Also, the Bears got arguably the worst Ref in the post season, fml. More penalties than any other set of officials, lovely. GB now favored by 1 on the road after losing 4 straight. Vegas has zero confidence in the Bears.

Yeah, basically the best TE in the NFL from Week 9 on. Incredible.

Good info about home teams playing against division opponents, 9-0 since 2021:

2024 QB Two-Year Passing Totals: Nix - 764-1179, 64.8%, 7706 Pass Yds, 54 TD, 23 INT, 46 Sacks Williams - 681-1130, 60.3%, 7483 Pass Yds, 47 TD, 13 INT, 92 Sacks Maye - 579-830, 69.8%, 6670 Pass Yds, 46 TD, 18 INT, 81 Sacks Daniels - 445-668, 66.6%, 4830 Pass Yds, 33 TD, 12 INT, 65 Sacks An impressive group overall, over 25K Passing Yards and 180 Pass TDs. With Rushing TDs, over 200 for the group in two years with over 10 games missed. Nix and Williams have not missed a game.

That's wild because he has an odd gaite. He doesn't look like he is moving that fast. I always get a kick out of it because he looks like a guy running to the bathroom after eating too much chili.

If they keep DJ, they will restructure his contract. No way he goes into next year with that big of a cap hit.

An exaggeration on my part. More like an All-Pro level for himself. Switching to the Will seemed to make him more useful. However, for how big and fast he is, he doesn't make enough plays at or behind the LOS.

I don't know if any of the current defensive players match the scheme. The secondary, outside of the INTs has been subpar in coverage, and it was supposed to be a strength. Again I know injuries, but there are way too many wide open receivers while the DBs are playing off or in a soft zone.

I agree, we can hold off until we are discussing what to do at pick 32.

I would love a blowout win, domination for 60 minutes. Put the entire league on notice in the playoffs. Getting Odunze and Gordon back (hopefully) would be a huge boost.

The scripted plays are just not working for whatever reason. I looked back at the last 6 games first 3 plays. How predictable are they being? There are only 8 possible combinations with a run and pass with 3 plays. In the last 6 games, every game had a different combination. To me that can't be a coincidence. To never have the same play sequence out of 8 possible sequences, in 6 games seems deliberate. I was thinking they were being too predictable but that isn't the case, so I really have no clue what is going wrong. PHI Run, Pass, Run GB Run, Pass, Pass CLE Pass, Run, Pass GB Run, Run, Pass SF Pass, Pass, Pass DET Pass, Run, Run

Hopefully the Bears actually get 9 games at Soldier Field in 2026, but I would not be surprised if one ends up as an International game (like vs Jacksonville). 8 games against 2025 playoff teams (one being CAR). They have 5 tough non-divisional games (SEA, JAX, BUF, NE, and PHI), what I see as 3 easy games (NO, NYJ, and MIA), and 3 other games they should be favored in (TB, ATL, and CAR). I am thinking 4-2 in the Division. They are not losing to MIN with McCarthy, I think they split vs GB and DET next year at a minimum. No way DET wins 4 straight against Johnson. 3-0 in easy games, 2-1 in the other games makes you 9-3 with the 5 tough games. If you go 2-3 you're back to 11 wins, go 3-2, you are a 12-win team. So 10-12 seems like a fair range. 3 of the tough games are at home, which helps. If this offense takes the normal 2nd year leap, and the defense just improves marginally, 10-12 wins should become the standard regardless of the schedule. I could see 7-2 at home, 4-4 on the road as a fair projection HOME Detroit Lions 9-8 - W *Green Bay Packers 9-7-1 - W Minnesota Vikings 9-8 - W Tampa Bay Buccaneers 8-9 - W *Philadelphia Eagles 11-6 - W *Jacksonville Jaguars 13-4 - L New York Jets 3-14 - W *New England Patriots 14-3 - L New Orleans Saints 6-11 - W AWAY Detroit Lions 9-8 - L *Green Bay Packers 9-7-1 - L Minnesota Vikings 9-8 - W *Buffalo Bills 12-5 - L Miami Dolphins 7-10 - W Atlanta Falcons 8-9 - W *Carolina Panthers 8-9 - W *Seattle Seahawks 14-3 - L

Yeah, if he was head and shoulders above the others in terms of playtime, targets, and production, then you keep him. However, like you have pointed out, the cap is a finite resource, and you have to squeeze every ounce out of it, so a cap hit of $28.5M is about double what he should be making for that type of production. He has the 13th highest contract AAV for a WR. For that, he should be at least in the top 20-25 across the major categories (considering rookie deals). He is 40th in receptions, 39th in Yards, 49th in Yards/Target, and 87th in Catch% amongst only WRs. Then when you consider pass catching options, Loveland, Burden, and Odunze would be the top 3 going forward. That's makes Moore very expendable. There have already been concerns about attitude, body language, and normally where there is smoke there is fire. It is hard to argue with the dropoff. Just in targets alone he dropped from a consistent 120-160 target WR to 85. Obviously that impacts his potential, but the catch% is way too low. He had 5x 100-yard games in 2023, but hasn't had one in his last 23 games. His max targets in a game this year is 7. He had 11 games with 8+ last year including a game with 16 targets. The Wild Card game will probably be a huge indicator for the team going forward. Who are they calling plays for, who is getting open, and who are getting targets. If Moore ends up with only 4-5 targets, to me that says all you need to know about his future. You don't pay close to $30M for 4-5 targets in the most important game of the season so far.

The Bears are 7-1 when they hold opponents to 21 or less. The only loss coming this week. They are 1-4 when they score 21 or less, like they did this week. The entire team is at fault, but for how bad the defense played, they kept the score in the range where coming in, they were 7-0.

Regardless of injuries, giving up the 3rd most yards per play, 4th most yards and 10th most points is a fireable offense. The Bears defense allowed 1,400 more yards than the #1 defense, 1,400! That is insane. Almost 100 yards per game more. The Bears scored 90 pts off turnovers, 2nd most in the NFL. If that went down to the average, they would've lost 42 pts on the season and would be a 7-win team because of the defense.

The Bears need someone who can take the top off the defense. Right now safeties can really crowd the box and make intermediate passes and rushing that much more difficult because they don't have to worry about anyone running by them.