adam

The remaining cap hit gets spread out similarly to a restructure over multiple years. It is a little more complicated when they have multiple years left, but if you look at Sweat's, it is easier to see (2 years left in 2026). With one year left (after 2026), if Sweat was traded before June 1st 2026, the team would have $8,170,589 Dead Cap because it would all be applied in 2026. However, if it occurs after June 1st, only $4,085,294 in Dead Cap would be applied to the 2026 cap, while the other half is applied in 2027 (the final year of his original deal).

Interesting contrast with and without Parsons. The Bears have to take advantage of this opportunity.

That would be interesting, but as they are $43M over the cap for next year already, they would have to get under the cap before the league year starts in March. So any massive move like that would need to happen before then or a restructure that gets them under the cap, then something like that. They really screwed themselves with the Mahomes contract. He has a $78M cap hit and 77.8M in dead money. Now due to his injury, at most they can restructure his and save maybe $10M at the most, but not much. They are in a bad spot thru 2027.

Line down to GB -1.5. With Parsons, GB as a team, has 33 sacks. Without Parsons+Wyatt, the rest of the roster has 16.5. The Bears have 29. For INTs, the Bears have 21, GB has 7.

Henderson was always the one they probably wanted, and he has looked really good.

If the Bears beat GB, there is a good chance they are resting starters in Week 18 against DET (assuming LAR wins on THU). To me it is hard to believe that the Bears are in this position with 3 weeks to go, they basically control their own destiny and just have to finish with a Division record of 3-3 to win the division.

Tom only played 24 snaps against DEN. He and Williams both were hurt in the 2nd half I believe.

From initial reports, in addition to no Parsons (61) or Wyatt (who missed the last game), there are reports that Watson (44), Zach Tom (53), and Evan Williams (69) may be out. Snap counts from last game in parentheses. Tom being out is massive, as he has been an anchor on their line. Watson has always burnt the Bears and Williams has been a very solid player at Safety. Zero excuses for Saturday for the Bears. If they can't beat a depleted Packers team without Parsons, they probably don't deserve to be in the playoffs anyway. The Bears will for sure have Stevenson back, who missed the last game against GB. They may also get Edmunds back too, which would be the closest this defense has been to full strength since Week 1 (just missing Gordon), but with the addition of CJGJ, and the emergence of Jackson at LB, the defense looks ready for this challenge. On offense, with no Parsons, and possibly no Williams on the backend. This is not the same GB defense they just played, it will be worse, and Williams will have more time.

SOS is dynamic and changes every week. I am not too high on SOS, but just making the point that for some reason it only applies to the Bears. To me, after your actual record, I think the biggest discriminator are your losses. Great teams don't lose to terrible teams. So if you have a low SOS AND you lost to a bad team, then that is a red flag for me. NE lost to LVR, which is a red flag. That sort of supports the notion that the only reason they have a good record is they have played a bunch of inferior teams. Take all the teams with 10+ wins, then combine their best win and their worst loss (which is sort of their ceiling and floor) and you get this (with differential): LAR: 11-3 + 7-7 = 18-10 (+/- 4) SF: 11-3 + 7-7 = 18-10 (+/- 4) DEN: 9-4-1 + 8-6 = 17-10-1 (+/- 1.5) SEA: 10-4 + 7-7 = 17-11 (+/- 3) BUF: 11-3 + 5-9 = 16-12 (+/- 6) CHI: 9-5 + 6-8 = 15-13 (+/- 3) JAX: 10-4 + 4-10 = 14-14 (+/- 6) LAC: 12-2 + 2-12 = 14-14 (+/- 10) NE: 10-4 + 2-12 = 12-16 (+/- 8 ) The top 3 teams are LAR, SF, and DEN; the most consistent teams have been DEN, SEA, and CHI. The worst team has been NE, and the most volatile team has been LAC. LAC beat DEN but lost to NYG (and WAS). If you also include GB, their signature win was actually against the Bears, lol, 10-4, but lost to CLE at 3-11, so they are a 13-15 team with a (+/- of 7). DET's signature win was against the Bears as well, so they are a 16-12 team with a 4 diff. Technically a better team than GB but playing a first place schedule. PHI is a 13-15 team with a 9 diff. They are very similar to LAC, very volatile. TB 15-13/7 and PIT 15-13/7 are the only other two, comparable to JAX. If you had to put them in tiers, probably something like this: Tier 1: LAR, SF, DEN, SEA Tier 2: BUF, CHI, DET Tier 3: JAX, TB, PIT Tier 4: LAC, PHI Tier 5: GB, NE BAL is a 14-14/6 team, so they would be comparable to JAX, and their signature win, against the Bears. CAR is 14-14/8 somehow beating the Rams but losing to the Cardinals and Saints twice, lol. They would be in Tier 4 with LAC and PHI.

Post-June 1st moves are really just for operating expenses and vet minimum deals in the late offseason. You can't count on those for use during the actual free agent period or post-draft free agency. Moore has a $28.5M cap hit for 2026, not $38M. There are a few easy restructures that wont kill the future cap. Moore has a $28.5M cap hit with $23.4M in salary. They could convert a good chunk of the 2026 salary into a bonus and then spread it out over the remainder of his contract (thru 2029). So just say they won't want too much in future years, they can convert $12M to a bonus and save $9M on this year's cap without hurting future years with a ton of dead cap ($3M per yr). Sweat is similar, but his deal ends in 2027. So with $20M in salary, they could convert say half of it to a bonus, save $5M this year and only push $5M to next season. Sweat only has $18M left in guarantees after this season, so there is some wiggle room there too. I figure they could easily save $12-15M with just Moore and Sweat without too much impact on future years. Dalman only signed a 3-year deal, so I can see them working on an extension which could save $5M on the 2026 cap. Jackson has a similar deal that also ends in 2027, so they could extend him for 2 more years and flatten the cap hit. Probably another potential $10M in savings if they want to extend either of those guys. So that is 4 transactions, saving $25M on the cap, only extending core players under 30 (Jackson and Dalman). Then for potential cuts/trades, Edmunds is the most enticing with $15M in pre-June 1st savings. He will almost certainly be a move they act on. The LB Corps needs a rookie contract to balance it out. So if you cut/trade Edmunds, now you are potentially up to $40M in available cap. Kmet is another option for a cut/trade/restructure. He has a $11.6M cap hit probably as a TE2. There is no way you can pay that/ They could save $8.4M with a pre-June 1st move. However, he is a team-leader, but would he be willing to sign an extension for less money? So a Kmet action would save between $5-$8M. So restructing Moore and Sweat, extending Jackson and Dalman, cutting/trading Edmunds, and doing anything with Kmet could free up in the high 40s in cap space for 2026 with mainly needs at S, DT, and possibly LB. That seems very doable to me. I forgot about Jaylon Johnson, who is also in a similiar position as Sweat. Deal ends in 2027, so any restructure would just slide to 2027, so again, if they need some additional wiggle room, they can slide some money into 2027 with Johnson. Probably another $5M if they need it.

They can't let Jacobs get going either. His TD run was the game breaker. He had a rushing and receiving TD against the Broncos as well.

Another cool nugget amongst others for Saturday's game. If the Bears win, Williams will be back to .500 as a QB for the first time since Week 7 of last season after the Hail Mary game loss. Talk about a cleansing.

When I look it up that way, Rodgers has a couple of spans with an INT rate below 1.0% with over 1000 attempts (which would imply less than 10 INTs in 1K). Brady has a few as well. However, when I do over 1K Passing Attempts, with an INT Rate of 1.2% or lower, to start a career, the only name that shows up is Caleb's: https://www.sports-reference.com/stathead/tiny/CIX7e Even though Rodgers has the career best INT Rate of 1.432% of any QB with over 2,500 attempts, Brissett is fractionally better than Rodgers at 1.397% with way fewer attempts. So now that Williams is over 1K, there really is no comparison because it took Brissett 6 years to get to his 1K passing attempts, where he had 14 INTs in those first 1K. Brissett has basically maintained that pace up to his current 2,147 attempts, now with 30 INTs. Williams is at 1.175% with 12 INTs in 1,021 attempts. So he technically could throw 17 in his next 1,126 attempts and still be the best.

With all of that, the Bears SOS is .400, but NE's SOS is .371, and DEN's is .393, both lower than the Bears but you don't hear much at all about who those teams have played. Hell, both Maye and Nix are getting MVP consideration in the weaker conference while the Bears are arguably in the toughest division in football. Every division in the NFL has at least one team with 4 wins or less, and the NFC North's "worst" team has 6 wins. GB is a "true" Super Bowl contender, but they lost to the Browns and Panthers, tied the Cowboys, and barely beat the Giants and Cardinals, but somehow the Bears are not because they lost to the Lions, Ravens, Vikings, and Packers.

Weird to see Bears as leading vote getters, 4 OL on the list, 14 total players in the top 10. The top 4 guys should be in consideration for All Pro, Dalman, Thuney, and Byard should be 1st Teamers. Wright, just because of name recognition will probably lose out to Horn or Surtain for 1st Team All-Pro. OC - Dalman - NFC1 / NFL2 OG - Thuney - NFC1 / NFL1 FS - Byard - NFC1 / NFL1 CB - Wright - NFC2 / NFL2 KR - Duvernay - NFC2 / NFL3 ST - Blackwell - NFC2 / NFL4 OT - Wright - NFC4 / NFL4 OG - Jackson NFC3 / NFL7 DE - Sweat - NFC3 / NFL7 LS - Daly - NFC5 / NFL5 QB - Williams - NFC4 / NFL7 P - Taylor - NFC5 / NFL10 TE - Loveland - NFC6 / NFL10 RB - Swift - NFC7 / NFL10 The Position groups without players in the top 10 in voting: WR, DT, ILB, OLB, SS, K. Somehow Doubs made the top 10 and is 49th in Receiving Yards in the NFL, but Odunze or Moore didn't. DT is expected, both LB spots have been due to injury, SS has been a mixed bag with Brisker, and Santos is obviously not a Pro Bowl kicker.

The 2 games that stand out that seem to have swayed public perception (regardless of outcome) was the LVR game where they needed a blocked FG to win it, and then the Saints game where Caleb only had 15 completion, which is still a season low.

He is playing MLB, so he would make TJ expendable. I thought the most interesting piece was 7 out of the top 8 players were FA/trade acquisitions, and the top 3 were since August:

and to think 2 of those were on tipped balls caught by the defender tipping the ball, which are still INTs, but not in the traditional bad throw sense.

Parsons torn ACL, out 9+ months, brutal this late in the season, will probably miss 3-4 weeks to start next season as well.

7 of the top 8 PFF Graded Defensive players were recent FA/trade acquisitions by Poles, and the top 3 were the most recent 3, all in season. 1. Jackson - 93.5 2. Tryon-Shoyinka 90.4 3. Gardner-Johnson 80.3 4. Williams 77.7 5. Edwards 74.6 6. Wright 73.3 8. Jarrett 66.6

Bears next 3 opponents: EPA/Play OFF / DEF Rankings: GB T-2nd / 17th (no Parsons) DET 4th / 19th (No Joseph) SF 9th / T-22nd (No Warner/Bosa) 3 top 10 offenses, 3 bottom defenses.

The simplest path for the playoffs is Bears win 1 of their last 3, Lions lose 1 of their last 3. To win the Division, the Bears need to win 2 of 3 and beat GB. Both could finish 2-1, Bears would be 12-5, GB would be 11-4-1. These next few weeks, every game in the top of the NFC matters: THU 12-18 - LAR 11-3 @ SEA 11-3 (Winner is probably #1 Seed, especially if LAR wins) SAT 12-20 - GB 9-4-1 @ CHI 10-4 (Winner is probably NFC North Champ, #1 Seed still in sight for Bears) SUN 12-21 - PIT 7-6 @ DET 8-6 (A DET loss basically eliminates them from the playoffs with 7 losses.) MNF 12-22 - SF 10-4 @ IND 8-6 (IND almost beat SEA, at home could upset SF with IND playoff hopes still on the line) TNF 12-25 - DET 8-6 @ MIN 6-8 (MIN looks much better playing with nothing to lose, could end DET's playoff chances on XMAS lol). SAT 12-27 - BAL 7-7 @ GB 9-4-1 (BAL could hurt GB playoff chances, especially if GB lost to CHI the week prior) SUN 12-28 - SEA 11-3 @ CAR 7-7 (CAR still has a shot at the Division and would be right there if GB lost to CHI and BAL) SUN 12-28 - CHI 10-4 @ SF 10-4 (SF on a short week, while Bears had extra day playing on SAT, 2 extra days rest) For #1 Seed, the Bears chances are not that far fetched. The Bears need to win out, have SEA beat LAR on THU, then SEA has to lose 1 game between CAR and SF. So the Bears just need a 2-1 finish from both LAR and SEA with SEA beating LAR. The #5 Seed (best non-Division winner) would play a road playoff game at TB or CAR. That is the easiest playoff path. #7 Seed is playing in CHI right now. #6 Seed is playing in PHI. As of today, it is LAR with the bye, then GB @ CHI, SF @ PHI, and SEA @ TB.

Swift now has 935 Rushing Yards and 254 Receiving Yards thru 13 games, and 3 games left. He is on pace for over 1,100 Rushing Yards and 10 TDs. Payton, Anderson, and Casares are the only 3 RBs to have over 1,100 Rushing Yards and 10 Rushing TDs in the same season. Forte, Jones, Howard, Sayers, Thomas, and James Allen all have had over 1,100 Rushing Yards, but didn't hit 10 Rushing TDs.

Williams now on pace for 3,825 Passing Yards, 26 TD, 7 INT, 405 Rush Yds, 4 Rush TD, 1 Rec TD (31 Total TDs). That pace is with 225 yards per game. So he clearly has a shot at the team record (needing only 14 more yards over 3 games). For 4K, he would need at least one big game, or two "bigger" games. 2025 Pace 3,825 + 405 = 4,230 2. Williams 3541 + 489 = 4,030 3. Cutler 3812 + 191 = 4,003 4. Kramer 3838 + 39 = 3,877 5. Cutler 3659 + 201 = 3,860 Last season, as a rookie, with an incompetent coaching staff, Williams put up the most Pass+Rush Yards in team history. This year he is on pace to break that mark by 200 yards. At 21 Pass TDs, he already surpassed his rookie year of 20 Pass TDs. With his 4 other TDs, he has 25 on the year and should be over 30 by the end of the season. Kramer has the franchise lead for TD Passes (29) and total TDs (30) tied with Cutler, who had 28 TD passes and 2 Rush TDs in 2014. 26 TD Passes would be 5th best all-time in franchise history. 31 Total TDs would be the most ever for a Bears player.

Bears currently 10-4 with 3 games left. I had them winning against GB and DET, and losing against SF. If they do that, they are 12-5 and NFC North Division winners, guaranteed a home game and more than likely against GB in the Wild Card round. Honestly, any extra wins, a playoff berth, and potentially a Division winner, all seem like they are exceeding expectations, but seeing how they have played, and what the other teams look like, it doesn't even feel surprising anymore.