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Everything posted by adam
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It's wild if Darnold can't play due to an injury he suffered on Thursday, then a beat up SF team beats Drew Lock, the Bears pull off the upset and SF comes to Chicago for a rematch in the NFCC in frigid weather conditions? That would truly be fairytale-level scripting by the NFL.
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Puka accounts for 28% of the target share but 34% of the Passing 1st Downs. He averages 107 yds per game and had 111 against CAR. The Bears can't play soft coverage against him. LAR is traveling on Saturday, getting into Chicago around dinner time, so they will be in town approximately 24 hours before kickoff. I know they are trying to not make the weather a big deal, but there is no way it won't be a factor. I am so much more relaxed for this game, the Bears are playing with the house's money. They can win this as easy as they can lose this one. Hopefully they play loose. The Rams are the ones expected to win, Super Bowl contenders, MVP, the pressure is on them, in a hostile environment, with bad weather.
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Why was the game so close, officials missing a blatant block in the back on Jackson on Golden's TD. Harder to see from the TV view, but in this view, the official is in perfect position to see that penalty, it is literally between him and Golden, yet no call, easy TD. Also a hold on Johnson who doesn't sell it enough. Could've been called as well.
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Great perspective on the game, highly recommend.
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With the WC Win, the Bears are locked into one of the picks 25-32 in the 2026 Draft, that will be the latest they have drafted in the 1st round since 2011 (Gabe Carimi - 29th pick) which obviously corresponds with the Conf Championship loss in 2010 to GB (Caleb Hanie game).
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This is one of the best injury reports I can remember. If McCloud is the only one that can't go, that is actually a benefit to the Bears because he is absolutely torched on every play he is on the field. The worst 3 coverage players: McCloud, Sewell, Edwards would all be out.
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I honestly don't think they will make any sweeping changes this offseason. The longer you can ride out contracts, the less chance at dead money near the end. Caleb is in Year 3 in 2026, 4 in 2027, and they will either go the 5th Year Option route or extend him after Year 4 which makes Year 5 payout more than it would've but lessens the cap hit for the remainder of the deal. Assuming they extend him early, 2027 seems to be the year that you would start cutting dudes to accelerate the dead money into 2027 protecting 2028 for Caleb's pay raise.
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If it was 4th down, the game is over anyway. It is sort of a loop hole to save a down if you were going to spike the ball anyway. Just say there are 30 secs left, and it's 2nd down, you gain 7 yards. You can quickly go up and spike it, stop the clock, and give yourself another shot. Around 20 secs left, balled spiked on 3rd down, now 4th and 3 but the clock is stopped. OR player gets hurt on the 2nd down play, 10-second runoff, now only 3rd and 3 with 20 secs left. Utlimately this could be applied to any down or distance when you have a chance to spike the ball. If you watch that play sequence over, GB basically got a free timeout for 10 seconds without wasting a down for a spike, which they were going to do without the injury.
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In the Wild Card game, there was a play when the Packers no longer had timeouts and there was an injured player. It was after a long pass where the player was tackled in the field of play. Since the Packers did not have any timeouts there was a 10-second runoff. However, that actually benefitted them because they would've taken the same amount of time to get down the field, get set, then spike the ball. So they basically gained a down by that entire sequence. To me, it should be a 10-second run off AND loss of down because if there was no injury, they would've lost the time and the down. This would only apply to a play where the clock was not stopped the play prior. What do you think?
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I agree, Swift seems to excel in those situations. I am surprised that they don't run those more often.
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The good thing is, this is still the low end of this. The roster can still improve and players will become more familiar with the system. So if they need to move on from a key contributor to make the overall team better, I totally understand it. If you are weighing contract value to team value, you can't have too many losing propositions, otherwise the team can fall apart with 1 or 2 key injuries. That does make several of the higher paid guys expendable unless they are willing to rework their contracts get more guaranteed money with less AAV.
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One frustrating thing on this, Poona Ford was a free agent DT this offseason, the Bears signed Jarrett for 3/42 and the Rams signed Ford for 3/29. Ford is the Rams top rated defensive player. Their D-Line is legit across the board, Byron Young and Kobie Turner are both really good as well. The Bears will have to utilize the quick game more and not leave Caleb back there too long, he won't have time.
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Paramount and Peacock have as well, maybe even Netflix. No it is impressive for a Wild Card game as well.
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https://foampartyhats.com/products/graterhead-hat
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That was before Urlacher's time, that was 98.
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Caleb's two 300-yard games this season occurred in the last 3 games. Caleb had 48 passing attempts against GB, the most under Johnson by 6. The next highest was his other 300-yd game against SF. It may not be purposeful, but it feels like Johnson is putting so many different things on tape that you have no clue what is coming next. The Bears had 6 games with over 150 yards rushing and 6 with over 250 yards passing, with only one game with both (CIN). The Bears are now 8-0 when they rush for 150+, and 4-7 when they don't with the Wild Card game being one of them.
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Caleb is the X-Factor. He can beat the perfect defense, which has to be demoralizing. You do everything right, instant pressure, hold coverage for 3 seconds, and bam, he escapes, extends the play, then throws frozen ropes 50 yards down field. The "Grate One"
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They are epic meltdowns. I love the compilation one. That fanbase is so delusional after Favre/Rodgers. Love is good, but not Favre/Rodgers good. This was supposed to be the year, Love was 27, just like Favre and A-Aron. Kind of funny that Love has accomplished a single thing either of those other QBs have Favre - 1x SB, 3x AP1, 3x MVP, 5 PBs, before 29 Rodgers - 1x SB, 1x AP1, 1x AP2, 1x MVP, 3 PBs before 30 Both won a SB at age 27, Favre lost one at 28. Neither went back after those. Love at 27 has 3 playoff appearances, 1-3 overall, no AP, no MVP, no PB. For his career, he averages 202 yards per game passing. To me he is an efficient QB but is completely team dependent. You need a game-changer at QB unless you have a stacked roster. That is the difference between Jalen Hurts and Patrick Mahomes. Love is closer to Hurts than Mahomes. Williams is about as close to Mahomes as you can have.
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The post game handshake and the "F*&k the Packers" in the post game speech. I find it refreshing to be honest. Eberflus is sitting courtside with LaFleur for a basketball game while the Packers are talking shit about the Bears, then Eberflus gets stomped on the field and walks off with a smile. Johnson has put a stop to that crap. It is a mindset.
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Caleb has broken analytics and stats in general. What he is doing doesn't compute, it is so funny. In the Wild Card round, here is where he ranked of all the QBs who have played so far: 1st in Passing Yards (361) 1st in Big Time Throws (6) 1st in 1st Downs (19) 1st in Sack Avoidance (95%) 2nd PFF Grade (77.3) 2nd EPA (+7.8) yet he had a QB Rating of 71.6 and a QBR of 36.9. Both of those would indicate a subpar game. The main culprit is his Comp%, which was at 50%. He had the 2nd longest TTT, but only took 1 sack. Herbert had the highest TTT and took 6 sacks. It really is bonkers. I think that is what people are having trouble grasping, because if you are just box score watching, he looks fairly average. There are 4 QBs in NFL history to throw for more than 350 Yards with a Comp% 55 or below: Kosar, Cunningham, Jackson, and Williams. Caleb is the only one to throw for 2 TDs, and the Bears were the only team to score more than 30 pts in that game.
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Absolutely bonkers, and Caleb had 283 Passing Yards in the 2nd half as well.
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I understand that it may not play a huge role, but it will be a factor to consider. There are a lot more examples of warm teams struggling in the cold than playing well. In that game you reference, it was playing the SF team that won back to back SB's, with Joe Montana at 32 and Jerry Rice at 26, so I don't know if any factor mattered against that team.
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Solid HC, but I think the team would be more dependent on the coordinators. I would not be surprised if GB moves on, but at the same time, would not be surprised if they doubled down on LaFleur+Love.
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Temperatures in the teens, winds in the teens. Real feel is projected to be below zero wind chills. The Bears have been playing in crappy weather games for over 6 weeks now. LAR has not, that feels like it favors the Bears. With the home crowd + crappy weather, advantage Bears, and they will need all of them. 6 of the last 7 games for the Bears have been under 42 degrees. The warmest game was 42 degrees in Philly with 18mph winds and gusts in the 20s. The other 5 games were below 37. The Cleveland game is about as close as it will be on Sunday. Stafford has never played in a game below 20 degrees apparently. Teens with winds in the teens are on a whole different level of cold too. He hurt his hand in the CAR game and is almost 38. That cold will affect him. The last cold Rams game I could find was December of 2024 in NY against the Jets. 23 degrees. Stafford was 14-19, 110 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT. They relied heavily on Williams running the ball to beat the terrible Jets.
