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Everything posted by adam
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For positional value, the Bears need an immediate starter at #25, that seems like DT or S, but could also be CB, LB, or Edge with a Wild Card being OT.
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The Bears are about $4M over the cap, need $5M for operating space and $8-10M for draft picks. Let's just say that is $20M. The Bears can gain over $35M in cap space with these 3 transactions: 1. Cut Edmunds - pre-June 1st, save $15M (only $2.4M Dead cap) 2. Trade Moore - pre-June 1st, save $16.5M ($12M in Dead cap) or restructure that can save approximately $15M. 3. Restructure Thuney - convert $12M of his $16M to bonus, saves $6M Other potential moves 1. Cut/Trade/Restructure/Extend Kmet - I think they will do something with him. He is tied for the 7th-highest AAV amongst TEs for backup TE production. With the emergence of Loveland, you just can't have Kmet on the roster with an $11.6M cap hit. Options: A. Cut/Trade - save $8.4M, only $3.2M in dead money B. Restructure - With 2 years left, you can convert some of his $8.9M into a bonus to free up some cash this year C. Extend - Only if he takes less AAV, which may be unlikely, but if he did, you could cost-average his annual cap hit down to a more workable level. 2. Restructure Jarrett - similar to Thuney, can convert guaranteed to bonus to free up about another $5M If you add transactions for Kmet and Jarrett, the Bears could have close to $50M to work with. If Byard is your only named resigning, after subtracting operating space and the draft pool, the Bears should have $25-30M for free agency. Rest of the NFL To put this into perspective, the Chiefs are $62M over the cap, Vikings $49M, and Cowboys $39M. Mahomes has a $78M cap hit in 2026. They will probably restructure Mahomes and Jones to free up about $50M, mortgaging the future, and will probably have to cut or trade a guy like Jawaan Taylor to get under the cap. The Vikings will restructure Jefferson's contract, but they will have to make some cuts to just get under the cap. They won't be able to sign any major FAs. This roster looks to take a step back from 2025 unless all their draft picks hit and contribute on Day 1, unlikely. GB interestingly enough is $24M over the cap, they can get under with restructures for Love and Parsons, but man are those contracts gonna hit hard in a few years, Love's already hits $75M in 2028 and Parsons hits $72M in 2029. So if they restructure either of theirs this offseason, those numbers will go up even further. GB was clearly going all in and it looks like 2026 will be their last year with a roster that resembles 2025. 2027 and beyond will have to be stripped down. Quay Walker, Doubs, and their LT Walker are all UFAs this offseason, and they don't have a first-round pick. With limited cap and draft capital, this team is solely relying on Parsons in 2026. The Lions are $16M over, Goff has a $69M cap hit and St. Brown is $33M, they restructure both of those to get under. They can do the same with Hutchinson, to free up some operating space, but they won't be signing any major FAs. This team will go into 2026 relying on the 4th place schedule. The Bears are in the best shape cap-wise of all the teams in the Division, MIN has the most draft capital with an extra 3rd, GB has the least without a 1st round pick. The CHI, GB, and DET QB situation is stable, so the Bears are the healthiest of the teams within the division. CAP: CHI, ........DET, GB, .................MIN Draft: MIN, DET, CHI, ......................GB QB: CHI,.....DET, GB.........................MIN Overall Organizational Health: CHI, DET...........MIN, GB
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Here are the Bears Free Agents heading into the offseason. Counting Special Teams, the Bears have 5 starters that are UFAs. Daly and Duvernay are low salaries guys that can be brought back with little cap considerations. So that leaves Brisker, Byard, and Wright. Out of those 3, I would bring back Byard, he should be the cheapest of the 3 and gives you the most in terms of performance and leadership. Brisker played a great game against the Rams but is too big of an injury risk with his concussion history. Wright started out on fire, then got burnt for the back half of the season. Unrestricted Free Agents S Jaquan Brisker - Injury risk, pass S Kevin Byard - I would resign to a 2-yr deal, team leader, still playing at a high level CB Nashon Wright - subtract the INTs and you have a bad DB LS Scott Daly - resign to near vet min deal WR Devin Duvernay - resign to near vet min deal, unless you think you can get more out of this position DL Andrew Billings - gone, old, fat, and slow. CB Elijah Hicks - If signed will be for near league min deal RB Travis Homer - If signed will be for near league min deal LB D'Marco Jackson - I would resign him if you are playing on keeping DA, Jackson played well as the next man up OT Braxton Jones - cant see them resigning him DB Jaylon Jones - If signed will be for near league min deal QB Case Keenum - Bring him back if you think he can still provide guidance, with Caleb entering Year 3, might not be needed anymore CB Nick McCloud - Please don't resign this turnstile, contributed directly to at least 3 of the Bears losses S Jonathan Owens - Meh Edge Dominique Robinson - Never consistent enough TE Durham Smythe - Solid TE3 Edge Joe Tryon-Shoyinka - Made a couple of plays, doubt you have money for rotational Edges over league min DL Chris Williams - DT Room needs an upgrade from top to bottom WR Olamide Zaccheaus - Impressed in training camp and early on, then fell off a cliff. Doubt he is back. Restricted/Exclusive-Rights Free Agents LT Theo Benedet - cool story, but depends on the cost Edge Daniel Hardy - ST Specialist, only sign if he is getting ST level money LB Noah Sewell - Injuries and terrible in coverage
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Yeah, seeing the replays, he was jogging the entire route and the Safety from a standstill was able to beat him to the spot and make a play on the ball. I don't know how you can come back from that, all the other players saw it or will see it a million times between now and next season. The problem with DJ has always been effort. This year targets down, effort down. This was his first time on a winning team in his college and pro career and this is how he acts? Too accustomed to the loser mentality.
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The Bears have the 25th pick in the 2026 draft. Pass Rush is an issue, no starting Safeties, and a question mark at LT. They need at least 2 starters from this class.
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1 play from the NFCC and played one of their worst games. If they catch 2 to 3 of the 7 drops they win. If this team improves, they are going to be in every game.
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On the INT, what was the play call there? 4 deep routes, no one underneath. You got there dinking and dunking, just keep doing that until they stop you. You needed 15 to 20 yards.
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Un believe able I don't even know what I just witnessed. 17-17 going to OT
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Odunze has been terrible, WTF man, top 10 pick, catch the ball.
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10-10 at half but a lot of missed opportunities for the Bears, should be up by a TD. Hopefully the 2nd half Bears show up and put this away.
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Yeah some how the Rams are catching everything catchable and Loveland and Odunze are dropping balls hitting their hands.
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And the f'n refs man, 15 yards penalty on Dexter for that? Total BS, gifted LA 3 pts.
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Need pts, preferably a TD here but can't not get points.
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The Rams are bringing 2 guys backside unblocked and the Bears are running straight into them. Either need to fake the run or run a toss away from them.
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Johnson being way too predictable, ffs. Everyone knew what was coming and he still ran into a 10 man box.
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Carbon copy of last week, drive down into RZ, Odunze drops a TD, 2 runs, INT on 4th down. No points.
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It's wild if Darnold can't play due to an injury he suffered on Thursday, then a beat up SF team beats Drew Lock, the Bears pull off the upset and SF comes to Chicago for a rematch in the NFCC in frigid weather conditions? That would truly be fairytale-level scripting by the NFL.
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Puka accounts for 28% of the target share but 34% of the Passing 1st Downs. He averages 107 yds per game and had 111 against CAR. The Bears can't play soft coverage against him. LAR is traveling on Saturday, getting into Chicago around dinner time, so they will be in town approximately 24 hours before kickoff. I know they are trying to not make the weather a big deal, but there is no way it won't be a factor. I am so much more relaxed for this game, the Bears are playing with the house's money. They can win this as easy as they can lose this one. Hopefully they play loose. The Rams are the ones expected to win, Super Bowl contenders, MVP, the pressure is on them, in a hostile environment, with bad weather.
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Why was the game so close, officials missing a blatant block in the back on Jackson on Golden's TD. Harder to see from the TV view, but in this view, the official is in perfect position to see that penalty, it is literally between him and Golden, yet no call, easy TD. Also a hold on Johnson who doesn't sell it enough. Could've been called as well.
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Great perspective on the game, highly recommend.
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With the WC Win, the Bears are locked into one of the picks 25-32 in the 2026 Draft, that will be the latest they have drafted in the 1st round since 2011 (Gabe Carimi - 29th pick) which obviously corresponds with the Conf Championship loss in 2010 to GB (Caleb Hanie game).
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This is one of the best injury reports I can remember. If McCloud is the only one that can't go, that is actually a benefit to the Bears because he is absolutely torched on every play he is on the field. The worst 3 coverage players: McCloud, Sewell, Edwards would all be out.
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I honestly don't think they will make any sweeping changes this offseason. The longer you can ride out contracts, the less chance at dead money near the end. Caleb is in Year 3 in 2026, 4 in 2027, and they will either go the 5th Year Option route or extend him after Year 4 which makes Year 5 payout more than it would've but lessens the cap hit for the remainder of the deal. Assuming they extend him early, 2027 seems to be the year that you would start cutting dudes to accelerate the dead money into 2027 protecting 2028 for Caleb's pay raise.
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If it was 4th down, the game is over anyway. It is sort of a loop hole to save a down if you were going to spike the ball anyway. Just say there are 30 secs left, and it's 2nd down, you gain 7 yards. You can quickly go up and spike it, stop the clock, and give yourself another shot. Around 20 secs left, balled spiked on 3rd down, now 4th and 3 but the clock is stopped. OR player gets hurt on the 2nd down play, 10-second runoff, now only 3rd and 3 with 20 secs left. Utlimately this could be applied to any down or distance when you have a chance to spike the ball. If you watch that play sequence over, GB basically got a free timeout for 10 seconds without wasting a down for a spike, which they were going to do without the injury.
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In the Wild Card game, there was a play when the Packers no longer had timeouts and there was an injured player. It was after a long pass where the player was tackled in the field of play. Since the Packers did not have any timeouts there was a 10-second runoff. However, that actually benefitted them because they would've taken the same amount of time to get down the field, get set, then spike the ball. So they basically gained a down by that entire sequence. To me, it should be a 10-second run off AND loss of down because if there was no injury, they would've lost the time and the down. This would only apply to a play where the clock was not stopped the play prior. What do you think?
