adam

The Bears have given up the highest number of explosives on defense, 32nd in the NFL against the pass and 31st overall. Patriots are 5th in explosives, so they are going to have to play over the top with 2 deep to shut this down.

A 5-2 team with 5 home and 5 away games remaining has a 85% chance at making the playoffs. That drops to 65% at 4-3. So this game has a 20% swing in playoff odds.

Caleb is facing the highest blitz rate in the Next Gen Stats era (since 2018). Right now his Blitz Rate is 53.1%, but even with that he still has a CPOE of +6.9% and EPA/DB of +0.23 which is insane. For a full season as qualified starters, the two highest Blitz rates and only QBs within 10% of Caleb's are Newton in 2020 and Mariota in 2022, yet neither of them was successful that season: Newton 2020 -1.4% CPOE -0.07 EPA/DB Mariota 2022 -0.9% CPOE -0.04 EPA/DB Both had slightly below-average seasons with that high of a blitz rate. The blitz rate has impacted Caleb's ability to throw downfield, but that has actually helped him play on time and get the ball out of his hands quicker. Now that he is mastering that, but can still play outside of structure and extend plays, they are making him even that much more difficult to defend.

The Bears need to take care of business at home. GB is playing at DET, so either way, one of those teams is leaving with a loss. For Conference competition, SEA is playing KC, so a SEA loss would give the Bears a 2-game cushion on a Wild Card spot with every team from the NFC North making it in. If the season ended today, the playoffs would look like: GB @ NYG CHI @ CAR DET @ MIN A Bears win and GB loss, Bears would move into the #5 Seed and play the weakest Division winner. That seems like the sweet spot. The NFC North Division winner gets a home game, but would have the toughest opponent Wild Card weekend. The #5 and #6 seed are guaranteed to play the Division winners from the East and South.

Williams vs Maye Johnson vs Vrabel+Russini Efficiency-wise, these teams are basically identical: EPA/Play CHI OFF -0.03 vs NE DEF -0.07 = -0.10 NE OFF 0.00 vs CHI DEF -0.11 = -0.11 They are also within 1% of each other on offense and defense for QB Pressure Rate. Thru 6 games, the Bears are 2nd in Offensive Yardage, NE is 4th. NE has the slight edge in Passing, CHI slight edge rushing. CHI averages 25 PPG, NE averages 22.7. The defenses have allowed basically the same amount of yards (within 9 yards). CHI has allowed 21 fewer 1st Downs. NE averages 18.8 and CHI averages 19.8. NE is 1-2 on the road, 13-10 loss in SEA, 35-6 loss in JAX, and a 29-26 win in BUF. CHI is 2-1 at home, wins against PHI and NYJ, and the loss to MIN in the monsoon. The home/away seems to favor CHI slightly. NE is coming in with a 3-game win streak (BUF, LVR, NYJ). NE is 1-1 on TNF in the last two years, both against NYJ. CHI is 0-2 from 2024 (Flusera), losing to DET on Thanksgiving (to Ben Johnson no less) and to SEA 6-3 in Week 17 (team was already checked out). Those games don't feel relevant. However, the home team wins 66% of the TNF games since 2023 (33-17). That is a significant number. I don't like how even this game is though, but CHI gets all the benefits of TNF at home. It feels like injuries and the officials will play a huge part in the outcome. If the Bears play anywhere close to what they did against ATL, I like the Bears by 10. Otherwise it is going to be a squeaker within 3 and could go either way. Bears 30-20.

Another crazy game, but man the officials are terrible. Dotson can push off but Loveland can't extend his arm? Caleb and Kyler wow. Caleb, the best Comp% for a Bears QB with over 30+ attempts, ever, 8.5 YPA with over 300 yards passing. Only 6 incompletions with several throw-aways. You could tell he is not 100%, 4 rushes for 3 yards and took 4 sacks. Hopefully he can keep healing and didn't aggravate anything. Amazing efficiency and exactly what we have been asking for. Kyler, wow, what a return. 3 sacks, 2 forced fumbles, 3 TFL on ONLY 16 snaps? Insane. Exactly what the defense needed. Outside of taking their foot off the pedal in the 4th and the refs, they should've won by 20.

This season is close to being a wash. Murphy is kicking their butt. Monsoon loss, Bryant injury, Caleb injury, Gordon recovery, now Sweat suspension. JJ and Stevenson playing below replacement level. They trade Dexter and he is playing at a PB level. Bagent looking like a CFL backup. With all of that going wrong somehow they are 3-2.

Not good, but probably a fair trade since GB lost Cooper.

RIP to one of the true legends.

Revisiting this trade, ended up a steal. Jackson does great interviews.

This trade makes up for the Claypool blunder. Jackson may be the best Offensive Lineman on the team, or at least close to Wright at this point, and Wright is playing at an All-Pro level.

Getting Gordon back would be huge. The defense is playing great, but Jaylon and Stevenson have underwhelmed. If you can rotate Gordon in and Muhammad and replace Stevenson, that would remove the biggest hole on the defense. The Jets exploited it and you know GB will attempt to as well.

Bears are a top 10 team, Packers are a bottom 10 team. Packers are closer to the Jets than they are to either the Eagles or Panthers. The Bears can't lose this game. Most simulations are saying Bears 24-17 at the worst. Others say 27-13 or 14.

Only 3 undefeated teams left, KC, SF, and MIN. MIN is a paper tiger. KC has two 3pt wins. SF is the most legit team so far. Bears should be right there with them.

Good point. I don't know how much he interacted with the defensive players, but Hutchinson cap hit grows to $54M in 2029. They backloaded it to go all in the next two years. After that, they will have to shed salary. Goff goes to $62M next year, then $69M in 2028. Half their cap next year is in Goff, St. Brown, and Sewell already.

His mistakes have just been magnified because they have been so noticeable. Drops an easy TD, jumps on a perfect punt for no reason causing a touchback, not even attempting to block on FG try, not following blockers on designed screen, etc.

Bears QBR so far this season, week by week: 1 - Williams 92.3 2 - Williams 70.3 3 - Keenum 74.1 4 - Bagent 75.1 4 straight games with the primary QB with a QBR over 70 is impressive. 3 out of 4 weeks with a QB in the top 10 in QBR. Coaching matters.

Definitely, Thieneman was the correct pick, so was Muhammad. Actually he probably should've been the Rousch pick. That one is looking like a whiff.

I don't think the Bears will be sellers at the deadline. I could see an Edge or CB. Jaylon and Stevenson have been really bad.

The funniest thing ever would be Bagent taking the first snap and then Caleb runs out on the field to takeover.

Mission Accomplished!

Another idea I had was they could bring Logan Jones along with Caleb, allowing the Center to get a ton of reps with Caleb before live game reps. So start them both Week 7 against NE at home on TNF. Also, NE knows Bradbury too well, they would exploit the hell out of him anyway. Perfect time to make the switch at Center in my opinion.

I am thinking they may hold him out until Week 7, since it is a short week. If he comes back for Week 6 and ATL, he would only have 3 days of rest (including travel) for the next game. I don't think they would risk that as the reinjury rate is pretty high. So I would not be surprised if Bagent starts against GB and ATL and Caleb returns for NE, then gets the mini bye after that game before MNF in Seattle the following week. That gives him more time to recover after his first game back.

I know you kind of throw stats out in rivalry games, but this is not the same Packers team of previous years. In terms of points, yards, and efficiency on offense and defense, the Bears are in another stratosphere as GB is right now. GB's two wins were by 3 pts each over the Jets and winless Bucs. In both of those games, Love threw for less than 200 yards, and they still won. They either get blown out, or win close games. On the flip side, the Bears have 3 wins by 10+ pts and a 6 pt loss in a monsoon.

Offense Defense PPG CHI 28.0 vs GB 18.3 CHI 16.3 vs GB 26.3 YPG CHI 429.0 vs GB 307.3 CHI 282.3 vs GB 324.3 YPP CHI 5.8 vs GB 5.2 CHI 5.9 vs GB 5.0 EPA/P CHI +0.06 vs GB -0.16 CHI -0.15 vs GB -0.02 Pass YPG CHI 232.8 vs GB 249.3 CHI 179.8 vs GB 185.0 Rush YPG CHI 196.3 vs GB 58.0 CHI 102.5 vs GB 139.3 Pass YPP CHI 6.7 vs GB 6.2 CHI 6.6 vs GB 5.8 Rush YPP CHI 4.9 vs GB 3.2 CHI 4.9 vs GB 4.2 TOP CHI 36:35 vs GB 26:14