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Everything posted by adam
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Oh lol, yeah. Injury was always going to be an issue with Daniels, and now had upper and lower body injuries. Penix also looks to be out for the year with his 17th knee injury.
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Watching the All-22, when you think Caleb is throwing slightly behind a guy, he is, but not because he is throwing late or it is a bad throw, he is throwing away from a defender. On a good number of throws if he leads the receiver like normal, that dude is ending up in a body bag.
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"Attempted seven total passes from under center" is crazy. I didn't know it was that low. I would be curious to know how many he did in 2024. Either way, I am sure some of the accuracy and timing issues are related to that, which are all fixable issues with more reps. That is very promising.
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Yeah, his arm got bent backwards like Gumby unfortunately. Arms should not bend that way. Hopefully WAS can protect him better and he learns how to slide without using his arm to brace him.
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24% swing in playoff odds in this game. Win and it is up to 69% (Yeah Baby), and a loss drops it to 45%. GB and DET still have better odds.
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I don't think everyone is sold on him, and that's ok. I just think he is a lot closer to figuring it out than some may think. Not only him, but the entire team has not played a full clean game yet. To be 7-3 and that be the case really makes this a dangerous team going forward.
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Bears Receivers have been hit with the drop bug, I believe they have 17 drops now. If half of those were caught, that would bump Caleb's Comp% to 62%, much closer to his 2024 number, but with an ADOT over 0.5 yards farther.
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As Bears fan, we all should be enjoying this ride. No QB is perfect halfway thru their 2nd season in the league. Williams biggest issue from last year was taking too many sacks, and he has not only improved on that exponentially, he actually has become this magician avoiding sacks. So not only is he not taking unnecessary ones now, he is avoiding almost sure things. It is still Year 1 in a new offense that is new for all players. They changed his stance, they have him playing under center and with play action more than he ever has in his life. Now it is the time to work on ball placement and accuracy. Once he improves there, he will be a top 10 QB until he retires.
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That was ALL he did though, he was on the winning team. Just like Stetson Bennett, Georgia was 29-1 the last two years, and he actually threw for 4K passing yards. The biggest red flag on McCarthy was his inexperience. That reminded me of Trey Lance. There are so few QBs that work out when they have limited college experience. McCarthy can still improve but I don't know if he will even get to a Mac Jones level.
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Line has slid to CHI -3, I am sure it will move a little more once it is official on Rodgers. They are saying 50/50 right now lol.
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I am sure their fanbase is split, some will want to give him more time. Others are probably done with him. He did nothing in college to warrant being a first rounder. Williams, Daniels, and Nix all had the pedigrees. Maye had a shorter period of success but that plus his stature made him at least enticing. Everyone knew Penix wouldn't last with 50-year-old knees.
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The one thing PIT does well is prevent TDs. That has saved them. They are also 2nd in the NFL in missed tackles (Loveland game). I still can't believe how good the Bears defense has been on 3rd downs. Now they need to stop allowing first downs on first and second down so much. 3rd Down Defense: CHI - 2nd (33.7%) PIT - 24th (41.7%) 4th Down Defense: CHI - 11th (53.3%) PIT - 27th (72.0%) Red Zone Defense (TD Rate): CHI - 14th (58.3%) PIT - 6th (51.4%) Yards Allowed per Drive: CHI - 22nd (32.5) PIT - 28th (35.1)
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then I would love that, he is a team leader and playmaker. He never was a speed guy, so the age doesn't bother me at all. Make him retire as a Bear.
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I didn't realize PIT had the worst passing defense in the league, worse than DAL and CIN (in terms of yardage) and in the bottom half of the league in terms of QB Pressure: PIT OFFENSE: 22nd Passing 29th Rushing PIT DEFENSE: 32nd Passing 13th Rushing
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Bears OFF +0.02 x PIT DEF -0.04 / -0.01 x 66.7 plays= (-0.67 DIFF) 25.8 Bears O x 23.2 PIT D + DIFF = 23.8 (24 pts) PIT OFF -0.04 x Bears DEF -0.05 / -0.045 x 57.1 plays= (-2.57 DIFF) 24.6 PIT O x 26.4 Bears D + DIFF = 22.9 (23 pts) Congunkulator shows a close game 24-23, but that is with Rodgers at QB. If it is Rudolph, you have to believe that is at least 3 pts less for PIT, making it a 24-20 game.
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The Congunkulator was pretty close, and predicted wins the last two weeks.
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Yeah, I am glad all of that is over. This truly is a new era. Hopefully we get Johnson+Williams for the next 15-20 years and the coaching and QB musical chairs finally stop.
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Poles finally took the North.
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PIT is a common opponent in the Division race, so this game does have tie-breaker importance beyond just a Win vs Loss. 8-3 with 6 games left would really set the Bears up for no less than a Wild Card berth.
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He won't last long. They will give him this year to fail and I would expect them to draft another one or sign a proven vet if he does not improve (which he won't). If anyone watched any Michigan games, he handed the ball off 80% of the time, and was only asked not to make mistakes, but because he was a good kid and the ultimate hype man, MIN bought into the "winner mentality". I also think the league got over their skis on KOC. Solid coach, etc, but a little overrated. Not hard to beat teams when you have a Flores defense holding team to under 20 pts and giving you great field position.
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If DET and CHI finished at 11-6 each, there is a good chance they both have the same Division record (3-3), Conference record (7-5), and record in common games (8-4), which would then move to the Strength of Victory criteria, which just based on their schedule, DET would more than likely win it. What sucks is you benefit from beating a good team, but are not penalized for losing to a bad team with Strength of Victory. For CHI to win the division outright, they will need to beat DET by at least one game on the season, which may be decided in Week 18. With GB having a tie, that takes all the tie breakers out of the equation. The easiest route to the Division is sweeping GB and beating DET. That would give the Bears a 4-2 DIV record and DET would end up at 3-3. They would then only need to win 1 game against PIT, CLE, SF, and PHI to finish 11-6. Win two of those and you more than likely win the division outright at 12-5, but it still would come down to Week 18. There is crazy scenario where the winner of Week 18 wins the Division, and the loser misses the playoffs (because of GB's tie).
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Looks like Rodgers won't play, still possible, but unlikely. So it will be Mason Rudolph. Can't lose to another backup QB after losing to BAL. They need to take care of business and get right at Soldier Field on Sunday. Sunday weather is forecasted in the high 40s to low 50s, partly cloudy, perfect football weather. Bears by double digits!
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There it is, 2/3 of his drop backs he was blitzed on. On the other 12, he was at least pressured on half of them (will have to watch the game to get exact number). So potentially, he had no blitz or no pressure on 6 or fewer drop backs the entire game. Wild stat if that's what it ends up being. Johnson has to draw up more blitz beaters.
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In their last 8 starts each, Nix and Maye are 8-0, and Williams is 7-1. So combined those 3 are 23-1 in their last 24 starts. Has there ever been a trio of QBs from the same class do that ever?
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PIT only sacked Flacco once. Chase Brown had 99 yards rushing on 5.5 YPC. Flacco targeted Chase and Higgins 18 times and they only had 6 receptions. Rodgers had a 38.2 QBR and Rudolph had a 25.1 QBR against CIN. For Rodgers, that follows a game against LAC where he had a 4.5 QBR. Rodgers has looked really old and slow the last two weeks.
