adam

That's fair, but Williams, Trubisky, and Fields are not in the same stratosphere. I can't tell you how many times we were told about Mitch going from 101 to 201, taking the training wheels off. I think we are well past that point with Williams. Williams is the first QB in NFL history to start a career with more than 7K Passing yards, 800 Rush yards, with more than 40 Pass TDs and fewer than 15 INTs through their first 33 games. One other QB has put up those numbers in a 33-game span in their entire careers, once by Josh Allen. Caleb has done it in his first 33 games. With 229 Passing Yards, Caleb will hit 7,500 in his first two seasons. With one TD, he will be at 50 (Pass+Rush+Rec). With 24 Rushing Yards, he will hit 900. That would be over 8,400 Pass+Rush Yards in his first two years, averaging 4,200 per year with 25 TDs. Those are franchise QB numbers, and that's his floor.

I haven't looked it up but someone posted that Diggs has a 158.3 QB Rating against, the worst in the NFL. If that is true, you literally can't get any worse and he obvious has other things going on in his life to be that bad on the field.

I still find it interesting that some people/media are not "sold" on Caleb yet. Like what else does this guy need to do? The Bears just won the NFC North and have a chance for the #2 seed. He is about to break the franchise Passing Yards record at 24 yrs old. In most cases, he is neck and neck stat-wise with Josh Allen, Justin Herbert, Sam Darnold, Baker Mayfield, Trevor Lawrence, Jalen Hurts, and Bo Nix. The only QBs ahead of the pack are Stafford, Goff, Prescott, and Maye (the only QBs with 30+ TD Passes and 4K yards). However, he is elite with ball safety, basically breaking his own record with every attempt. With 3 more attempts, he will have the lowest INT rate for a QB in their first 1,100 attempts. He already has the record for the lowest with 1K attempts. The BEST PART, he is still not a finished product. I don't know if he will ever be a 70% Comp guy, but who cares? That is a good goal, but that is not the end all be all. Stafford is a career 63.5% Comp QB. However, he didn't hit 60% for his career until he was 27, in Year 7. All the while throwing double-digit INTs every season. Josh Allen didn't hit 60% until Year 3. Tom Brady was under 62% until Year 8. Caleb is at 60.3% for his career already. I think 65% is a more realistic goal. At the start of the season, we were hoping for 40 or fewer sacks. He has 23 heading into Week 17 and hasn't been sacked in the last 2 games. He got sacked in every game last year. The wildest advanced stat on his sacks, Caleb has the lowest sack rate of any QB with 80+ sacks in his first two seasons.

Brady only hit 4K once in his first 7 seasons. Caleb will hit it, and I am sure he will consistently hit it, but if he doesn't, I don't think it is the biggest deal. There are a lot of bad QBs that have hit 4K, so that alone is not the measure of success (Matt Schaub, Brad Johnson, Trent Green, Carson Wentz, Ryan Tannehill, Josh Freeman, Jon Kitna). Notable QBs in top 50 all-time: Elway's best season: 4,030 Passing Yards Esiason's best season: 3,959 Passing Yards Montana's best season: 3,944 Passing Yards McNabb's best season: 3,916 Passing Yards Aikman's best season: 3,445 Passing Yards I just hope he hits it, gets 270+ so we can finally move onto other discussions.

I sent you a DM in reference to payout.

Final Results for the 2025 Season in the TalkBears Keeper League. Payouts have been sent via Leaguesafe for all those with accounts. I go from 1st to 5th on 6 Passing Yards by Dak Prescott, tough league. Final Standings: 1. Bum Fights 2. Scotty Doesn't Know 3. SAVAGEw/LOOSEMORALS! 4. Hock Tua on my Chubby ------------------------ 5. Win in Rome 6. The Bunny 7. Nips&Tips 8. My Team Sucks 9. Trench Warfare 10. Nopper 2026 Draft Order: 1. Nopper 2. Trench Warfare 3. My Team Sucks 4. Nips&Tips 5. The Bunny 6. Win in Rome 7. Hock Tua on my Chubby 8. SAVAGEw/LOOSEMORALS! 9. Scotty Doesn't Know 10. Bum Fights

It is so funny how all 3 of the other fanbases are acting towards the Bears this year.

There are a bunch of these lol:

I could've sworn we were talking about him in the 2nd round and the Bears had 2x 2nd rounders, but went DB x2.

Crazy to think that the Bears could've had the best record in the NFL if games were called evenly.

Definitely, especially with an in-season injury.

There are 4 teams that have a positive EPA/P of +0.02 or greater on offense and -0.02 on defense. Surprisingly, the Bears are one of them (for how bad the defense has been lately): LAR, NE, BUF, and CHI. DEN would be the 5th but are only +0.01 on offense. Every other team either has a negative offense or defense that are in the playoffs. What does all of that mean? Those are the 4 most consistent teams and are most likely to progress thru the playoffs because probabilities are stronger in the playoffs. Home field advantage goes up 10% in the playoffs, meaning home teams win 10% more than they do in the regular season. LAR @ CHI and BUF @ NE for the Conference Championships would not be surprising at all.

I expected Washington to drop, last year was super fluky. BAL is a weird team. They have an elite run for a few years, a down year, then are back at it. This was their down year. I expected KC to regress, they had no business being in the Super Bowl last year. I did not expect DET to miss the playoffs. I figured a few game regression. Th Ben Johnson effect was bigger than I thought.

I hope Poles moves away from the "traits" guys in the 3rd round and later. Go with the production and proven dudes, like Monangai. Poles just doesn't seem to do that very often in the middle of the draft. I still laugh at taking a punter in the 4th with Malik Mustapha, Bucky Irving, and Ray Davis on the board, all went within 6 picks. Zacch Pickens was the 1st pick in the 3rd round (after they selected Dexter). WIthin a few picks: Tank Dell, Byron Young, Tucker Kraft, Josh Downs, Diaby, Achane. Velus went before Abraham Lucas, Christian Harris, Bernhard Raimann, Dylan Parham, and Rachaad White. I clearly remember mocks with Lucas and Raimann on them for the Bears.

Over 2,220 Yards from Scrimmage and 13 TDs from rookies (Loveland, Burden, Walker).

The Bears probably need a better DL Coach. They all seem slow off the ball, outside of Booker. Something is fundamentally wrong. Dexter has not improved, and it seems like every game we are talking about either being gashed in the run game or not having any pressure.

The Bears have the 3rd best offense in the league in terms of yards. So there is not much wiggle room other than passing more to rush less. However, the run game controls the clock and sets up the pass. The kickoff changes have reduced every drive's potential yardage by about 15 yards. Previously starting at the 20, now at the 35, at least 4-5 times per game adds up. Offenses as a whole are gaining fewer yards per game because there are less available. Teams averaged 353 yds/g from 2018-2020 in 16-game seasons. This season, teams are averaging 328.6 yards per game, 25 yards per game less. For the Bears, that would equate to 14.3 passing yds per game or 244 for a season in passing yards. Even with the 17th game, a team in 2018 that averaged 350 yards per game would have more total yards at the end of the season than a 2025 team averaging 329 for 17 games. Previous 4K Passers, 250 per game x 16 games = 4K With new kickoff rule, that reduced the potential for passing yards by 14.3 per game, down to 235.7. However, with an extra game, 235.7 x 17 is 4,006. So the extra game actually perfectly negated the loss from the kickoffs. So a 4K passer in 2018 would be equivalent to a 4K passer in 2025.

It is all about offensive efficiency. With the raw numbers, DET's offense looks relatively the same, but it is way different than last year. DET was a +0.15 EPA/Play last year,+0.25 per pass and +0.04 per rush. This season? DET is down to +0.05 EPA/P (-0.10), +0.12 per pass (-0.13) and -0.06 per rush (-0.10). So their passing efficiency got cut in half, their rushing went from a net positive to a net negative, resulting in a 66% relative drop in overall offensive efficiency. 3rd Downs? They went from 47.6% to 38.3%, a 9% drop. % of scoring drives 51.6% to 43.8%, an 8% drop. The Bears on the other hand went from -0.13 to +0.03 for EPA/P (+0.16), -0.15 to +0.02 per pass (+0.17), and -0.09 to +0.05 per rush (+0.14). The Bears on 3rd Downs: 32.9% to 43.1%, a 10% gain. % of scoring drives 29.8% to 44.6%, a 15% gain. So the raw stats are still there, but the efficiency of the offense is now with the Bears. It seems like they are running relatively the same offense, but every game, and every season, they will be that much more removed from it. I would expect some of the raw numbers to start falling off next year. With the easier schedule, that roster can still compete, but I don't see them being a juggernaut anymore. Goff has a $69M cap hit next season, St. Brown's is $33M. So between those two players, over $100M. Sewell is $28M and McNeill is $29M, that's another $57M, so $160M in 4 players, that's crazy.

Swift, currently has the 29th best rushing season in franchise history with 1,047 rushing yards, can break into the top 25 with 32 yards (passing Neal Anderson), and an outside shot at the top 20 with 80 rushing yards (passing Casares). Swith has over 2K rushing as a Bear, within 9 more yards he would pass Brad Muster for 20th. Monangai needs 33 rushing yards to pass Montgomery's 2022 for 50th all-time. DJ Moore just passed 3K Receiving Yards as a Bear, good for 17th all-time. Kmet is 19th at 2,923. For receptions, Kmet is 10th at 286, Moore is 14th at 243. Moore needs 4 to pass Bobby Engram for 13th all-time. If the Bears win against DET, Ben Johnson will have the highest winning pct of any HC in Bears history (tied with Ralph Jones) with a full season of coaching. Just a snippet of what is to come: Burden's last 3 games: 18-289-1, would be over 100 receptions and 1,600 receiving yards for a full season. Loveland's last 3 games: 13-187-1, would be over 70 receptions and 1,000 receiving yards for a full season.

The highest odds are that the Bears play GB at home in the WC Round, then PHI (Double Doink Revenge Game) at home in the Divisional Round, followed by SF in SF for the NFCC. Can you imagine that slate of games?

no problem. After the SF game, the Bears are now 3rd in Total Offense, 9th in EPA/P, 9th in TDs, 10th in scoring, 3rd in Rush YPG, 11th in Pass YPG, and 11th in QB Pressure rate. Pretty much a top 10 offense across the board in every metric. They have scored an offensive TD in every game and have only two games where they scored fewer than 21 pts.

He 25th in Rushing Yards himself, and the #1 RB2 almost 100 yards ahead of Montgomery who is the 2nd best RB2.

With one week left, this is quite surprising. I know injuries and playing time impacted the numbers, but it has been since Kendall Wright led the team in receiving that the Bears top Receiver had fewer than 750 yards receiving. Moore 49-671-6 Loveland 48-622-5 Odunze 44-661-6 Burden 44-617-2 There is an outside shot that the Bears end up with 4 Receivers with over 50 Receptions and 700 Receiving Yards. The fact that they are so close is really impressive.

With how the Bears have played at home vs on the road, it just feels like guaranteeing the most home games is the most ideal route. Their last 4 losses have been on the road and their only home loss was what ended up as the Week 1 fluke against MIN.

If the Bears played that game at home, they probably win by a TD.