adam

$100 gets you $2700.

Drake Maye really got exposed. Looking at some of the analysis, all SEA did was take away his first read and shade to his outlet, and he didn't know what to do. Pretty damning. He may regress more than I am expecting.

Music and movies have been generally crap for the last 20 years. Every now and then there is a gem, but for the most part it is all slop now. I had no interest in any halftime events, but I am glad others enjoyed them in different ways.

Pats are about to have one of the biggest falls from grace in recent memory. Next year they play the NFC North and AFC West. So besides their division, they play CHI, GB, DET, MIN, DEN, LAC, KC, JAX, and PIT. Considering the 2 games against BUF, that is 11 tough games. Who knows what MIA will look like with real coaching, so their only easy games are against NYJ, and LVR, and LVR will also look a lot different? I will go out on a limb and say they will finish at 8-9 and miss the playoffs, and that may even be generous considering their schedule.

So the Coach of the Year and the MVP Runner-Up put up that type of performance in a Super Bowl? In the NFCC, Stafford put up over 370 Passing Yards, 3 TD, 0 INT, with only 1 sack, against SEA, and still lost. Seattle literally played the game knowing they were going to win unless they had a bad turnover or special teams blunder. That is such an indictment on Vrabel (entire coaching staff) and Maye. Vrabel had a chance to get the deficit to 11, but decided to kick an XP when that point was worthless. Then when the game is so far out of reach, he goes for 2, lol. If there ever was a discussion about strength of schedule, you can point to the 2025 Patriots as the poster children.

5 worst net passing performances of all-time: 1. DEN - SB XII - 61 Gross Yards, 35 Net. - Maye - 56 Gross Yards, 24 Net. - thru 3Q, on pace for 75 gross/36 net 2. MIA - SB VI - 69 Gross Yards, 59 Net. 3. NE - SB XX - 123 Gross Yards, 62 Net. 4. MIA - SB VIII - 73 Gross Yards, 73 Net. 5. NYG - SB XXXV - Collins - 112 Gross Yards, 86 Net.

5 worst net passing performances of all-time: 1. DEN - SB XII - 61 Gross Yards, 35 Net. - Maye - 48 Gross Yards, 19 Net. - at halftime. 2. MIA - SB VI - 69 Gross Yards, 59 Net. 3. NE - SB XX - 123 Gross Yards, 62 Net. 4. MIA - SB VIII - 73 Gross Yards, 73 Net. 5. NYG - SB XXXV - Collins - 112 Gross Yards, 86 Net.

This might be one of the worst SBs in quite some time, offenses playing scared. Maye on pace for a top 5 "worst SB passing performances" of all time. Grogan had 177 passing yards in SB XX. Maye has 48 yards and has been sacked 3 times (19 net passing yards). The worst net passing ever was DEN in SB XII with 35 lol. He needs 65 passing yards to pass Kerry Collins for 5th worst of all time.

I miss Urlacher and Briggs, Marshall and Wilson.

I checked it out, pretty cool. I like that it allows you to do everything, including player trades. If the Bears can get that with their first 3 picks, I am perfectly happy as long as Safety is addressed in free agency.

Our perception and the team's perception are sometimes very different. If you look at previous times that exact play was run, DJ never got the ball. So to me, it looks like he was never expecting it so he was "running" the route. Maybe the miscommunication was that he was getting the ball? Also, one other note about the play that doesn't get mentioned enough. That was a hell of a catch by the DB. He covered a ton of ground in those conditions, laid out full extension and held onto it. If our receivers did that more throughout the year, we probably have a few more dubs.

However, if he does move onto another GM position that does have responsibility, ATL gets 2 comp picks. That is what makes this whole thing absurd. Either give picks to everyone or no one.

Define corn fed.

Damn, Doyle is gone, going to call plays in Baltimore:

On the Cunningham stuff, rewarding you for losing a minority employee only when they get promoted and fulfill a specific new position for another team is ridiculous. Teams should not gain a competitive advantage on the field for an administrative move off of it, especially when it is solely related to race. Like how do they even determine that? 23 and me? They just need to remove the comp picks altogether for anything other than player losses in free agency, because that is tied to a tangible thing like the salary cap.

Wow, MIN GM fired:

This is the first time this will be awarded. Would be cool for Thuney to get it. Arguably Poles' best trade.

The most promising part is that there is room to grow because his comp% is so low. However, if in Maye's case, he is already at 72%, the only place to go is down from there as that is not a sustainable rate in the NFL.

One reason why Oz won't be back:

Yep, you would figure they would want to have some idea on how much money they really have available vs projected.

Man Cleveland and NYJ are the most dysfunctional franchises. I think we are finally out of that rut. No one wants to go there and when they get a new Head Coach, other coaches want to leave.

I wanted to see how familiar the Bears non-Divisional opponents would be for Caleb and Coach Johnson. I will have to also cross reference Coach Allen as well. However, either the Bears played the opponent in 2025, Williams played them in 2024, or Johnson coached against them in 2023 or 2024, except for NYJ and MIA. As the team improves, especially the consistency on offense, having some previous experience against the defenses should help. This makes me feel a little better about the 2026 season. Atlanta Falcons - Johnson coached against in 2023 Buffalo Bills - Johnson coached against in 2024 New England Patriots - Williams played in 2024 Jacksonville Jaguars - Williams played in 2024, Johnson coached against in 2024 Carolina Panthers - Williams played in 2024, Johnson coached against in 2023 Seattle Seahawks - Williams played in 2024, Johnson coached against in 2024 Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Johnson coached against in 2024, Johnson coached against in 2023 (twice) Philadelphia Eagles - played in 2025 New Orleans Saints - played in 2025, Johnson coached against in 2023 New York Jets Miami Dolphins

He still has a lot to work to do on his own in terms of accuracy, touch, etc, but just looking at the totality of it, there has never been even a 11% gap between 2 QBs in the NFL, let alone a 16% gap for the Comp Diff (+9.1 and -6.9).

So I took my first deeper dive into Williams' comp% with some other advanced metrics. One I found interesting was xComp from NFL NextGenStats. It simply computes the expected completion percentage for a QB, and then the difference between the actual Comp% and the xComp to come up with a difference value. The normal is +/- 5. Anything over +5 is " extremely lucky" and anything under -5 is terrible luck. Basically those are the non-sustainable ranges. Looking back, it was hard for me to even find a Caleb Williams comp, a QB with over 500 attempts and Comp Diff of -5 or more. There was only one, Trevor Lawrence in 2021. He had a -5 Diff that year, and the following year, his Comp% went up 6.7% from the previous year. There were 2 other QBs with over 500 attempts, Murray in 2019 and Rodgers in 2024, but their Comp Diff were under 5. Williams is still in his own stratosphere at -6.9. There is a very high probability that his Comp% jumps 7% next year to around 65% without any actual changes, just regression to the norm. If he actually improves his own accuracy, then that could even go higher, but we will stick with the norm. 2019 Murray - 542, -3 (64.4 > 67.2) +2.8% 2021 Lawrence - 602, -5 (59.6 > 66.3) +6.7% 2024 Rodgers - 584, -4.7 (63 > 65.7) +2.7% 2025 Williams - 568, -6.9 (58.1 > ?) On the flip side, there was one QB with a +9.1 this year, that is the highest Comp Diff since the stat was tracked. Drake Maye. Tannehill 8.7 in 2019 on 286 attempts, dropped 4.8% the following year Fitzpatrick 7.2 in 2020 on 267 attempts, DNP in 2021 The only other recent comparison is Burrow in 2021 had a +5.9 and his Comp% dropped 2.1% the following year. Maye ended the season with a 72% Comp% and both him and Williams may end up next season with a comp% within 1-2% of each other. Considering they are basically 14% apart right now, that would almost seem unachievable, but the funny part is just comparing their xComps, Williams comes out on top. That is just how unlucky Williams has been (drops, etc) and how lucky Maye has been. Williams xComp 65% Maye xComp 62.8%

I could see a lot of transactions between the two teams going forward. The Cunningham thing will be interesting because somehow the GM in Atlanta is not the head football guy and would not warrant 2x 3rd Round comp picks. If that is the case, that is a terrible rule and loophole. The Bears should just promote Poles then and make Cunningham the GM by title.