adam

Crazy to think that the Bears could've had the best record in the NFL if games were called evenly.

Definitely, especially with an in-season injury.

There are 4 teams that have a positive EPA/P of +0.02 or greater on offense and -0.02 on defense. Surprisingly, the Bears are one of them (for how bad the defense has been lately): LAR, NE, BUF, and CHI. DEN would be the 5th but are only +0.01 on offense. Every other team either has a negative offense or defense that are in the playoffs. What does all of that mean? Those are the 4 most consistent teams and are most likely to progress thru the playoffs because probabilities are stronger in the playoffs. Home field advantage goes up 10% in the playoffs, meaning home teams win 10% more than they do in the regular season. LAR @ CHI and BUF @ NE for the Conference Championships would not be surprising at all.

I expected Washington to drop, last year was super fluky. BAL is a weird team. They have an elite run for a few years, a down year, then are back at it. This was their down year. I expected KC to regress, they had no business being in the Super Bowl last year. I did not expect DET to miss the playoffs. I figured a few game regression. Th Ben Johnson effect was bigger than I thought.

I hope Poles moves away from the "traits" guys in the 3rd round and later. Go with the production and proven dudes, like Monangai. Poles just doesn't seem to do that very often in the middle of the draft. I still laugh at taking a punter in the 4th with Malik Mustapha, Bucky Irving, and Ray Davis on the board, all went within 6 picks. Zacch Pickens was the 1st pick in the 3rd round (after they selected Dexter). WIthin a few picks: Tank Dell, Byron Young, Tucker Kraft, Josh Downs, Diaby, Achane. Velus went before Abraham Lucas, Christian Harris, Bernhard Raimann, Dylan Parham, and Rachaad White. I clearly remember mocks with Lucas and Raimann on them for the Bears.

Over 2,220 Yards from Scrimmage and 13 TDs from rookies (Loveland, Burden, Walker).

The Bears probably need a better DL Coach. They all seem slow off the ball, outside of Booker. Something is fundamentally wrong. Dexter has not improved, and it seems like every game we are talking about either being gashed in the run game or not having any pressure.

The Bears have the 3rd best offense in the league in terms of yards. So there is not much wiggle room other than passing more to rush less. However, the run game controls the clock and sets up the pass. The kickoff changes have reduced every drive's potential yardage by about 15 yards. Previously starting at the 20, now at the 35, at least 4-5 times per game adds up. Offenses as a whole are gaining fewer yards per game because there are less available. Teams averaged 353 yds/g from 2018-2020 in 16-game seasons. This season, teams are averaging 328.6 yards per game, 25 yards per game less. For the Bears, that would equate to 14.3 passing yds per game or 244 for a season in passing yards. Even with the 17th game, a team in 2018 that averaged 350 yards per game would have more total yards at the end of the season than a 2025 team averaging 329 for 17 games. Previous 4K Passers, 250 per game x 16 games = 4K With new kickoff rule, that reduced the potential for passing yards by 14.3 per game, down to 235.7. However, with an extra game, 235.7 x 17 is 4,006. So the extra game actually perfectly negated the loss from the kickoffs. So a 4K passer in 2018 would be equivalent to a 4K passer in 2025.

Congrats to all the winners this year. We did have one GM not pay their dues which makes them ineligible for any winnings. I distributed the remainder of the pool evenly to the other 3 winners. Leaguesafe payouts will go out this week. 1. Bum Fights - $480 2. Scotty Doesn't Know - Ineligible for winnings 3. SAVAGEw/LOOSEMORALS! - $120 4. Hock Tua on my Chubby - $75 ---------------------------- 5. Win in Rome 6. The Bunny 7. Nips&Tips 8. My Team Sucks 9. Trench Warfare 10. Nopper 2026 Draft Order: 1. Nopper 2. Trench Warfare 3. My Team Sucks 4. Nips&Tips 5. The Bunny 6. Win in Rome 7. Hock Tua on my Chubby 8. SAVAGEw/LOOSEMORALS! 9. Scotty Doesn't Know 10. Bum Fights

It is all about offensive efficiency. With the raw numbers, DET's offense looks relatively the same, but it is way different than last year. DET was a +0.15 EPA/Play last year,+0.25 per pass and +0.04 per rush. This season? DET is down to +0.05 EPA/P (-0.10), +0.12 per pass (-0.13) and -0.06 per rush (-0.10). So their passing efficiency got cut in half, their rushing went from a net positive to a net negative, resulting in a 66% relative drop in overall offensive efficiency. 3rd Downs? They went from 47.6% to 38.3%, a 9% drop. % of scoring drives 51.6% to 43.8%, an 8% drop. The Bears on the other hand went from -0.13 to +0.03 for EPA/P (+0.16), -0.15 to +0.02 per pass (+0.17), and -0.09 to +0.05 per rush (+0.14). The Bears on 3rd Downs: 32.9% to 43.1%, a 10% gain. % of scoring drives 29.8% to 44.6%, a 15% gain. So the raw stats are still there, but the efficiency of the offense is now with the Bears. It seems like they are running relatively the same offense, but every game, and every season, they will be that much more removed from it. I would expect some of the raw numbers to start falling off next year. With the easier schedule, that roster can still compete, but I don't see them being a juggernaut anymore. Goff has a $69M cap hit next season, St. Brown's is $33M. So between those two players, over $100M. Sewell is $28M and McNeill is $29M, that's another $57M, so $160M in 4 players, that's crazy.

Swift, currently has the 29th best rushing season in franchise history with 1,047 rushing yards, can break into the top 25 with 32 yards (passing Neal Anderson), and an outside shot at the top 20 with 80 rushing yards (passing Casares). Swith has over 2K rushing as a Bear, within 9 more yards he would pass Brad Muster for 20th. Monangai needs 33 rushing yards to pass Montgomery's 2022 for 50th all-time. DJ Moore just passed 3K Receiving Yards as a Bear, good for 17th all-time. Kmet is 19th at 2,923. For receptions, Kmet is 10th at 286, Moore is 14th at 243. Moore needs 4 to pass Bobby Engram for 13th all-time. If the Bears win against DET, Ben Johnson will have the highest winning pct of any HC in Bears history (tied with Ralph Jones) with a full season of coaching. Just a snippet of what is to come: Burden's last 3 games: 18-289-1, would be over 100 receptions and 1,600 receiving yards for a full season. Loveland's last 3 games: 13-187-1, would be over 70 receptions and 1,000 receiving yards for a full season.

The highest odds are that the Bears play GB at home in the WC Round, then PHI (Double Doink Revenge Game) at home in the Divisional Round, followed by SF in SF for the NFCC. Can you imagine that slate of games?

no problem. After the SF game, the Bears are now 3rd in Total Offense, 9th in EPA/P, 9th in TDs, 10th in scoring, 3rd in Rush YPG, 11th in Pass YPG, and 11th in QB Pressure rate. Pretty much a top 10 offense across the board in every metric. They have scored an offensive TD in every game and have only two games where they scored fewer than 21 pts.

He 25th in Rushing Yards himself, and the #1 RB2 almost 100 yards ahead of Montgomery who is the 2nd best RB2.

With one week left, this is quite surprising. I know injuries and playing time impacted the numbers, but it has been since Kendall Wright led the team in receiving that the Bears top Receiver had fewer than 750 yards receiving. Moore 49-671-6 Loveland 48-622-5 Odunze 44-661-6 Burden 44-617-2 There is an outside shot that the Bears end up with 4 Receivers with over 50 Receptions and 700 Receiving Yards. The fact that they are so close is really impressive.

With how the Bears have played at home vs on the road, it just feels like guaranteeing the most home games is the most ideal route. Their last 4 losses have been on the road and their only home loss was what ended up as the Week 1 fluke against MIN.

If the Bears played that game at home, they probably win by a TD.

Yeah, the final drive was kind of hectic. From 2:15 to 0:40 secs, there were no CHI timeouts used. They used 51 seconds to gain 16 yards, then 39 seconds to gain another 18 yards. They also had to waste one on 3rd Down after an incompletion, which may have allowed them to get the 4th Down call right, but then it required another timeout after that play. It sucks because they got one play from 1st and goal at the 2 instead of 2 or 3. The odds of scoring from the 2 (like a 2-pt conversion is like 50%), so even a 2nd play, and they probably score.

and they are technically the easiest matchup as every other one is either SF, SEA, or LAR.

It will be interesting to see what Dan Campbell actually does. Will he rest any key starters in what is a meaningless game for DET, who have lost 3 straight, and 4 out of 5? With a chance at the playoffs still on the line, they lost to MIN 23-10 and looked like they didn't care. My hope is DET doesn't risk Week 18 injuries for their core players and the Bears can handily win and put the game out of reach by halftime, then rest their own starters with the game in hand. Bears 30-10. Bears get locked into the #2 Seed with a home playoff game against GB the following weekend. GB would be in MIN having to travel back home, then to CHI for WC Weekend.

Here are the projected paths: #2 Seed - at least 2 home games, one vs GB, and the DIV round vs PHI or Week 18 loser of SEA/SF. Possibly a 3rd home game for NFCC vs LAR (LAR beats #1 Seed). #3 Seed - at least 1 home game, on road in PHI for DIV round or at home vs LAR in DIV Round (if GB beat PHI). The #1 Seeds make the SB 50% of the time, so there is a high chance that one of the two #1 seeds will make the SB. However, in the last 5 years, only one #1 Seed has won it (KC). If you take KC out of the equation, non-KC teams are 6-7 in the playoffs as #1 Seeds with only 2 SB visits (both losses).

Needs 82 scrimmage yards to hit 1K. He has 769 Rushing Yards, and 149 Receiving Yards. He has hit 82+ yards 4 times this season, all within the last 11 games. Crazy production from RB2 7th Rounder.

Caleb is 8th in Passing Yards, T-7th in Passing TDs, T-4th in INTs with a 90.3 QB Rating. Ultimately no need to keep track of his progress, he has arrived. This will be his worst season under Johnson statistically from here on out.

Now has 48 receptions for 622 yards and 5 TDs on the season. That is the most for a Bears TE since Kmet's 719 in 2023 (on 73 receptions). In the Super Bowl era, Dikta, Dewveal, Bennett, and Kmet are the only TEs in Bears history to have 650+ receiving yards in a season. Desmond Clark had 626. Loveland is having the 2nd best season in Bears history for a rookie TE, only to Dikta's 1,076 yards and 12 TDs in 1961 (in 14 games which is insane). Loveland also has a +43.2 REC EPA, 3rd to only McBride and Kittle. McBride has 161 targets, Loveland has 69.

So is it better to play GB in CHI on short rest (with GB coming off a bye) or SEA/SF with equal rest?