adam

The defense was way worse than most metrics. It was clearly a bottom-5 unit. Bottom 5 in yards per play, both for the rush and pass, 5th most Passing TDs allowed, and bottom 5 in TFL.

From the league meetings, it sounds like Trapilo will be out for the entire season.

The Mock Draft Consensus has McNeil-Warren, McDonald, Woods, and Young as the highest probable. On the Big Board, 25-29 have some good players (Woods -DL, McNeil-Warren-S, Parker-Edge, Miller-OT, McDonald-DT) with 3 of the top 5 listed as probable for the Bears. I would not be too upset if they went Safety at 25, BUTTTTTTT, I would hate to put that much capital into the Safety position considering they just gave out their biggest FA contract to Bryant. DT needs some love.

Yeah, I think those guys are untouchable; you could probably extend that to include Darnell Wright as well.

I doubt CLE wants Bagent. They are still paying Watson, and just drafted Sanders and Gabriel. At CB, they already have Ward and Campbell both making $20M a year, so I doubt they would want Stevenson or Johnson. At TE, they have Fannin, but Kmet could be a vet option. So Sweat makes the most sense, they would get a downgrade at Edge, but gain multiple picks. Instead of creating a hole that you ultimately have to fill with one of the picks. The other thing to think about is the cap situation, if the Browns trade Garrett before June 1st, which would be required if they wanted to get picks in this year's draft, they would accelerate an additional $17M to this year's cap while adding the new player's salary (if a player was traded to them). It can be done, but makes for challenging situation. They would ultimately be better off doing a post June 1st trade, but then wouldn't get any picks until 2027.

The Bears need to get Day 1 starters out of their first 3 picks. 3 picks in the top 60. Depending on the position group, you should be able to get a top 3 guy at 3 different positions.

You would think that CLE's defense would be at least a top 10 unit once with Garrett, yet since he entered the league in 2017, the highest the defense finished in scoring was 13th, twice, and ironically, the only two times they have been in the top 20. So without him, are they literally the worst defense in the league every year?

Arm length scares me for Bain. Everything else is off the charts, but the 3rd shortest arms for a DE in combine history? Yikes.

Yeah, it's a tough balancing act especially when they get hurt because now you are stuck with them for probably one year too many.

I agree. I hope he works out because Poles track record on the DLine has been sus. Dexter doesn't look like he will be getting a 2nd contract. Pickens was a bust. Odeyingbo is trending that way as an FA. Jarrett is probably over the hill. Sweat was solid, but was always a high-end DE2, and not really a consistent DE1. Billings was great then terrible.

Turner had some first-round grades, and some mocks had him going that high. A 2nd round pick has to become a key contributor/starter.

I hate using injuries as an excuse, but it felt like every level had a few guys out every game. On the DL, Turner only played 74 defensive snaps. Jarrett seemed to be dealing with something most of the year. Odeyingbo, regardless of how disappointing he was when he played, still missed most of the season to injury. The LB Corps was playing with LB 3, 4, or 5 as starters for a good chunk of the year. So with some upgrades, this defense could really surprise.

Oh yeah, it really inflates lower quantity stats like INTs.

Using AV, comparing last year's value, Dalman to Bradbury is only a slight downgrade 10-9, but both are above league average. Bryant is an upgrade over Brisker, but downgrade from Byard. Bush is an upgrade over Edmunds.

Yeah, it is just a way to approximate value in terms of production in a single number. You could also use it to assess draft successes after a few years. Guys like Loveland, Burden, and Monangai are all near the top for 2025, obviously Caleb is #1 in 2024, Wright tied for 12th in 2023. It's not perfect as it seems to award skill position players more value (or opportunity to get a higher rating). I will say AV feels much more accurate than something like PFF and it also gets better over time.

Yeah people forget the secondary injuries were crazy. Outside of losing Smith and Frazier right out the gate. Gordon only played in 3 games, all wins. Johnson played in 7 but was clearly not in shape for most of them. Stevenson missed several games. TJ Edwards also missed time at LB. So of the back 7, there will be zero players on the 2026 starting day roster that played in at least 15 games for the Bears last season.

I was looking up some numbers, basically to see how rare a situation Myles Garrett is in with his level of individual dominance combined with team failures and right off the bat, he is definitely up in the top 10 all-time. With a career AV of 123, he has only played in 3 playoff games. There are only 7 players with higher AV and 3 or fewer playoff games. 6 played pre-1970, leaving Willie Roaf as the only modern day player to have more AV with 3 or fewer playoff games. He has a 145 AV with only 3 playoff games. So if CLE misses the playoffs again in 2026, Garrett will pass Roaf during the 2027 season with the highest AV with fewest playoff games in NFL history (SB era). Of the other modern day players on the list, Roaf, Andre Johnson, Demario Davis, Patrick Peterson, and Adrian Peterson, all of them played for at least two different teams other than Garrett. A funny side note, 3 of the top 4 played for Detroit in the 50s-70s. One other interesting note was Bears-related. 3 Bears made the top 50. Urlacher(24), Briggs(28), and Walter(38). Khalil Mack (22) also made an appearance.

That is an interesting thought. If they did that, the Safety position would be stacked with salary though with 2 guys both making a lot of money. I was hoping they would continue to be balanced and have a position group with a bigger contract, rookie deal, and then a mix of other lower level guys. If you look throughout the roster, that at least seems to be the trend.

Enter Sanman!

Nothing more than 90-man roster depth it seems.

Smith at CB as well. Crazy how Wright would've been CB5, and ended up being CB2 all year.

Yeah that is true, Raymond does replace Duvernay on Punt Returns (I should've added that to Duvernay's comment) but based on offensive snap counts, Raymond was closer to Oz than Duvernay on offense, and Duvernay was more of a Core Special Teamer than Raymond was outside of Punt Return duties. Between Raymond and <insert new WR> will fill all the roles of Oz and Duvernay.

Yeah, they can nail it if they can get a playmaker at Edge, DT, and Safety in this draft with 3 out of the 4 top picks.

Positional value vs cap hit. Safety and Off-ball LB are cheaper in free agency than other position groups. So you can get quality for a cheaper total cost. Edge, WR, OT, and CB are the worst positions to spend on in free agency. Could be a coincidence, but I would like to think it is part of the plan.

Comparing the Bears roster to the rest of the league by position group, they only have 5 players in the top 10 at their position in terms of AAV, Thuney, Jonah Jackson, Kmet, Odeyingbo (as Edge2), and Gordon (as Slot CB). Technically, Gordon is the highest-paid Bears player in relation to the rest of the NFL as the 2nd highest paid Slot CB. Odeyingbo is the next as the 3rd highest Edge2, then Thuney at 7, Jackson and Kmet at 8. Gordon's is the only deal that will be that high for another few years. Odeyingbo will be gone next year, and all the rest will slide out of the top 10 with other players getting new deals. My assumption is Darnell Wright will get added to the top 10 in the next year, but Dexter or Stevenson are not getting extensions, so the next group is Williams and Odunze after that, but that won't be for at least another year or two. OFFENSE: QB - 20th RB - 18th WR - None in top 32 <insert eyeballs> TE - T-8th LT - 26th LG - 7th OC - T-15th RG - 8th RT - 22nd DEFENSE: EDGE - 14th, T-25th (Edge2 - 3rd) DT - 23rd, 50th (DT2 - 18th) LB - T-17th, T-17th CB - 12th, 23rd (Slot CB - 2nd) S - 13th Outside of Gordon and Slot CB, the Bears have not committed a significantly higher percentage of cap to one position than the rest of the league. In reality, the roster is pretty well balanced.