adam

Yep, his season % went up to 55.3%, absolutely bonkers. Penix is the only one close at 46.7%, Hurts at 40.0%, then Watson at 37.8%. Newton was at 44.8%, so now only Penix is within 10% in the NGS Era.

Yeah sucks for the longest-tenured Bear. At first I thought it was the helmet to the kneecap, but watching the replay, it was the step before that did it, non-contact, ACL and probably more. Season-ending IR and probably not back until August.

If Thuney declares as eligible, then it can be done forward. What this sort of implies is handoffs forward should be considered passes, because that is sort of the rule they are enforcing. An eligible receiver can receive a forward pass, but a lineman can only receive it laterally or behind.

Bears have 11 days between games. SEA, their next opponent, plays on Sunday Night Football, so the Bears will have a full +3 days of rest advantage. Typically, it is closer to 2.5 when teams playing at noon on Sunday. So the Bears get the longest possible rest advantage outside of a real bye week that you can get. Thru the first 7 weeks, the Bears are 5-2, and have weathered the storm of injuries. They are 13th in Passing Offense, 2nd in Rushing Offense, and 5th in Total Offense. On defense, they are 20th against the Pass, surprisingly 6th against the run, and 11th overall. They are also 8th in Scoring Offense and Scoring Defense. Right now there are 4 teams in the top 10 for Scoring Offense and Defense: SF, JAX, KC, and CHI. Pretty good company, a combined record of 19-4. The good news is only one of those teams is on their remaining schedule: JAX in Week 13 (in CHI). After the SEA game, the Bears get TB, their real bye, then NO. At a minimum, that should be 7-3 with a shot at 8-2. In that same window, MIN has @DET, BUF, @GB, and @SF. At best, that is probably 8-2, but could easily be 6-4 with 3 tough road games and BUF at home. So either way the Bears could be headed to DET for Thanksgiving in 1st place in the North. The crazy part is the NFC North champ will almost assuredly play one of the other NFC North teams in the Wild Card round. The sweet spot seems to be the 5th or 6th seed as those teams will play the NFC East Division winner (currently NYG at 3-2-1) or the NFC South winner (currently CAR at 3-2). The #2 Seed is more than likely going to be the NFC North winner who would play the #7 seed which is currently DET, and projected to be GB again.

The only thing I can think of for the slants over the middle is they are concerned about tipped passes because 5-15 yards inside the numbers seemed to have a ton of space and no routes were going there. That also feels like where Raymond had routes and he has rarely been targeted over the last few games. I would say, the fact that the Bears are 5-2 with one loss in a monsoon and one loss with Bagent starting is a great sign. It also feels like the Offensive Line is not as sharp as they were last season, for whatever reason. Bradbury vs Dalman maybe? CHI QBs have the most pressures against thru 7 games. Caleb's sack numbers are double what they were last year. You can attribute some of that to his injury, but not all of it.

Caleb is also now 19-19 as a starter and for the first time has a positive career EPA. He has been digging himself out of the hole from his rookie season. Career EPA now +0.6 lol.

TNF was a great comparison for the 3rd year QBs, both are really good and the top 2 of their class, and it is no longer even a discussion. It feels like it is now Caleb 1a, Drake 1b, then any other order of Nix, Daniels, McCarthy. Here are Caleb's numbers for the 3 games he finished: 73-98, 74.5%, 882 YDS, 9.0 Y/A, 5 TD, 0 INT For an entire season, that is 5K Passing yards and close to 30 Passing TDs. Caleb is the only QB in NFL history to throw for >8,500 yards, >50 TDs, <20 INTS, and rush for >1,000 yards in their first 38 games. Basically we are at a point where every start, he re-writes the record for that amount of games.

Cam Lewis is terrible, on par with Jaylon. Those two are huge liabilities. All the opposing team has to do is see where one of those guys are and target them. Another game like the ATL game where it was way closer than it needed to be. That 7 pts at the end of the half allowed them to kick the FG and go for 2, so that is 10 pts off the board for NE, and the missed FG for Santos. Should've been 33-16. This is the 3rd game this season where the opponent scored 23+ and the Bears won, that is a good sign for the offense, but as well as the defense played in the first 20 mins of the game, we need a complete game from them. Too many TDs being scored.

A win is a win but man. Jaylon Johnson responsible for at least 14 pts. He is cooked, slow, can't cover, can't tackle. Cam Lewis also a liability. Caleb with another 300 yard game with no picks. Burden on fire early. Odunze with some clutch catches late. Kmet is likely done for the year, helmet to the knee, did not look good. 5-2 heading into the mini bye. The next game is MNF in Seattle. With the injuries, especially to Caleb this is about as good as we could have hoped for thru 7 games. The crazy part is this team has not put played their best ball yet. We need Mack or a DT, potentially a CB and to get Bryant back.

Pass rush is not matching the coverage. Gotta have at least one safety over the top, too easy of a throw with no risk over the top.

Should be 27-7 if not for Jaylon freaking Johnson. I don't like Dennis Allen playing passive after the first few drives. Defense looked much better with chaos at the LOS.

Yeah, I was not even counting them two to be honest.

Jonah Jackson seems to be playing. So only down Monangai and Edwards. All things considered, that is a pretty promising injury report for a TNF game. Typically those are littered with questionable and doubtfuls, like NE's report. So the Bears come in with the health advantage, nice weather, no excuses. Need to get this one. A Bears win coupled with a GB and SEA loss would be the perfect weekend.

The Bears have given up the highest number of explosives on defense, 32nd in the NFL against the pass and 31st overall. Patriots are 5th in explosives, so they are going to have to play over the top with 2 deep to shut this down.

A 5-2 team with 5 home and 5 away games remaining has a 85% chance at making the playoffs. That drops to 65% at 4-3. So this game has a 20% swing in playoff odds.

Caleb is facing the highest blitz rate in the Next Gen Stats era (since 2018). Right now his Blitz Rate is 53.1%, but even with that he still has a CPOE of +6.9% and EPA/DB of +0.23 which is insane. For a full season as qualified starters, the two highest Blitz rates and only QBs within 10% of Caleb's are Newton in 2020 and Mariota in 2022, yet neither of them was successful that season: Newton 2020 -1.4% CPOE -0.07 EPA/DB Mariota 2022 -0.9% CPOE -0.04 EPA/DB Both had slightly below-average seasons with that high of a blitz rate. The blitz rate has impacted Caleb's ability to throw downfield, but that has actually helped him play on time and get the ball out of his hands quicker. Now that he is mastering that, but can still play outside of structure and extend plays, they are making him even that much more difficult to defend.

The Bears need to take care of business at home. GB is playing at DET, so either way, one of those teams is leaving with a loss. For Conference competition, SEA is playing KC, so a SEA loss would give the Bears a 2-game cushion on a Wild Card spot with every team from the NFC North making it in. If the season ended today, the playoffs would look like: GB @ NYG CHI @ CAR DET @ MIN A Bears win and GB loss, Bears would move into the #5 Seed and play the weakest Division winner. That seems like the sweet spot. The NFC North Division winner gets a home game, but would have the toughest opponent Wild Card weekend. The #5 and #6 seed are guaranteed to play the Division winners from the East and South.

Williams vs Maye Johnson vs Vrabel+Russini Efficiency-wise, these teams are basically identical: EPA/Play CHI OFF -0.03 vs NE DEF -0.07 = -0.10 NE OFF 0.00 vs CHI DEF -0.11 = -0.11 They are also within 1% of each other on offense and defense for QB Pressure Rate. Thru 6 games, the Bears are 2nd in Offensive Yardage, NE is 4th. NE has the slight edge in Passing, CHI slight edge rushing. CHI averages 25 PPG, NE averages 22.7. The defenses have allowed basically the same amount of yards (within 9 yards). CHI has allowed 21 fewer 1st Downs. NE averages 18.8 and CHI averages 19.8. NE is 1-2 on the road, 13-10 loss in SEA, 35-6 loss in JAX, and a 29-26 win in BUF. CHI is 2-1 at home, wins against PHI and NYJ, and the loss to MIN in the monsoon. The home/away seems to favor CHI slightly. NE is coming in with a 3-game win streak (BUF, LVR, NYJ). NE is 1-1 on TNF in the last two years, both against NYJ. CHI is 0-2 from 2024 (Flusera), losing to DET on Thanksgiving (to Ben Johnson no less) and to SEA 6-3 in Week 17 (team was already checked out). Those games don't feel relevant. However, the home team wins 66% of the TNF games since 2023 (33-17). That is a significant number. I don't like how even this game is though, but CHI gets all the benefits of TNF at home. It feels like injuries and the officials will play a huge part in the outcome. If the Bears play anywhere close to what they did against ATL, I like the Bears by 10. Otherwise it is going to be a squeaker within 3 and could go either way. Bears 30-20.

Another crazy game, but man the officials are terrible. Dotson can push off but Loveland can't extend his arm? Caleb and Kyler wow. Caleb, the best Comp% for a Bears QB with over 30+ attempts, ever, 8.5 YPA with over 300 yards passing. Only 6 incompletions with several throw-aways. You could tell he is not 100%, 4 rushes for 3 yards and took 4 sacks. Hopefully he can keep healing and didn't aggravate anything. Amazing efficiency and exactly what we have been asking for. Kyler, wow, what a return. 3 sacks, 2 forced fumbles, 3 TFL on ONLY 16 snaps? Insane. Exactly what the defense needed. Outside of taking their foot off the pedal in the 4th and the refs, they should've won by 20.

This season is close to being a wash. Murphy is kicking their butt. Monsoon loss, Bryant injury, Caleb injury, Gordon recovery, now Sweat suspension. JJ and Stevenson playing below replacement level. They trade Dexter and he is playing at a PB level. Bagent looking like a CFL backup. With all of that going wrong somehow they are 3-2.

Not good, but probably a fair trade since GB lost Cooper.

RIP to one of the true legends.

Revisiting this trade, ended up a steal. Jackson does great interviews.

This trade makes up for the Claypool blunder. Jackson may be the best Offensive Lineman on the team, or at least close to Wright at this point, and Wright is playing at an All-Pro level.

Getting Gordon back would be huge. The defense is playing great, but Jaylon and Stevenson have underwhelmed. If you can rotate Gordon in and Muhammad and replace Stevenson, that would remove the biggest hole on the defense. The Jets exploited it and you know GB will attempt to as well.