adam

Yeah the questionable listing is odd because that is the game listing, not practice. He was "limited" in practice, but others like Edwards and Walker were already ruled out for the game. So why would Johnson be questionable for the game if he was not going to play?

One thing to note. I think there is a perceived target on yards that is misleading. Averaging 270 Passing Yards a game would lead the league this year. That projects to 4,590 for the season. We haven't seen a 5K Passer since Mahomes in 2022. The league leaders the last two seasons were Burrow with 4918 and Tua with 4624. I really think the kickoff changes have impacted overall numbers. If you have 10-15 less yards available per drive, you are losing 40-60 yards per game of potential offense. That won't all be passing numbers, but if 70% of your yards are from passing, you are losing 30-40 yards per game by just having a shorter field after kickoffs. That equates to 500-700 yards per season. Not something I really considered. It obviously affects all players but 5K Passing seems a lot harder now than it was a few years ago.

Rodgers was 25 in Year 4, in his first full season, but he may be the closest comp to Williams due to the low INT rate. Most of the other QBs listed outside of Mahomes threw a lot of INTs. Manning had 28 INTs his rookie year (still crazy to think about), and had double-digit INTs in every season but 1 (when he had 9). Brady didn't hit 4K passing yards until Year 6 and had double-digit INTs in his first 6 full seasons. Marino peaked early (his best years were 2-4). He also threw a ton of INTs, hitting 20 per year in 4 out of 6 seasons.

That gives him a shot to play in 23 days against GB. With the PHI game the week prior on a Friday, we can assume that one is out. However, the GB game would give him 5 more games. GB, CLE, GB, SF, and DET. I think the CLE game would be the latest, as that would be 9 days after the 21-day window.

Great news. Obviously, he still might be a month away, but I doubt much beyond that.

Greenard right now is questionable with an injury he sustained on Sunday. If he doesn't go, that is a huge relief for the O-Line as he is very disruptive with pressures and TFLs.

To add to that, if I strip away everything but Pass Yards and TDs, there have only been 8 QBs ever to pass for more than 7,500 Yards and 40 TDs in their first 2 seasons combined: Herbert, Luck, Winston, Newton, Manning, Stroud, Murray, and Mayfield. Of those QBs, only one had fewer than 20 INTs, Stroud who had 17. Williams is on pace for only 14, but all the while putting up numbers that beat even Marino and Burrow. Williams and Nix will be 9 and 10.

That is just silly talk. So check this out, looking up Caleb's stats, and I keep coming back to he is 1 of 1. There literally are no QBs ever to put up the stat line he is going to put up in their first 2 seasons. Right now, no QB has ever thrown for more than 7K Passing Yards with 40 Passing TDs, 500 Rushing Yards, with 20 or fewer INTs. Williams is on pace for 7,500 Passing Yards, 45 Passing TDs, 900 Rushing Yards and 14 INT. He would not only beat that mark, he is going to crush it. He already has 5,677 Pass Yds, 33 TD, 735 Rush Yds, and 10 INT. QBs have had more passing yards, TDs, rushing yards, etc, but none have collectively put together such a well-rounded first two seasons ever. RG3 was close with 6400 Pass Yds, 36 TD, 17 INT, and 1,304 Rush Yds.

Line slid to +3, Vegas does not like the Bears.

There is a lot of untapped potential, and the opponent won't really matter if you are constantly finding the mismatch and taking advantage of it. There is no way anyone would've imagined even a top 10 rushing attack with Swift and Monangai to start the season. I know I didn't, but here we are. And if Johnson used it more before the bye, they would easily be #1.

GB has lost to CAR, CLE, and tied DAL. I don't think a team should be penalized for beating the teams they should beat. Instead, they should be penalized for losses to teams they should beat. The Bears lost to MIN, DET, and BAL.

Weather is going to play a factor down the stretch. The Bears have 4 home games left, one in GB and one in PHI. So 6 potentially cold weather games.

It would be so funny if the Kafka led Giants beat the Packers next week in NY.

Yeah, he looks healthy. It would be amazing if they could sign Asante Samuel Jr.

Bears are wrecking coaching staffs around the league, Daboll the last victim:

This week Williams was the 3rd highest graded QB at 81.1. Only Goff and Stafford were higher. Last week Williams was the highest graded QB at 90.8. He is now 9th in the NFL on the season at 77.0.

PFF Grades - TOP 5 BOTTOM 2 Jackson - 87.7 Williams - 81.1 Burden - 78.9 Odunze - 73.6 Dalman - 72.2 Moore - 46.8 Zaccheaus - 34.2 (more like Zacche-ASS) Billings - 75.8 Brisker - 74.8 Williams - 74.5 Wright - 71.4 Byard - 67.7 Jarrett - 41.0 Sewell - 40.6 (they really missed Edwards in this one)

The Bears offense is now 3rd in the NFL in Yards Per Game. The last time they were 3rd or higher was in 1977 when the league had only 28 teams lol. So technically you would have to go all the way back to 1956 to find an offense that produced this many yards compared to the rest of the NFL. The last time the Bears had a top 10 offense for both Pts and Yds with a defense that was top 10 in takeaways was 2006.

6-3 now. Revenge game against MIN. PIT looked terrible and I don't think that changes much in 2 weeks. Teamwise, MIN and PIT are both comparable to CIN, DAL, and WAS. MIN's defense is obviously better, but their offense is worse. GB and SF are similar, slightly better than MIN and PIT, but not by much. DET and PHI are the cream of the crop, but PHI is not really playing dominant ball right now. They are 2-2 in their last 4. Interesting that CHI and DET are both 1-3 (all their losses) when they allow 27 or more points on defense. Most teams are but when all your losses are like that, it normally means your offense is scoring points, which checks out. Here is the remaining schedule. If they can get to 8-4 going into the GB game, I really like our chances. 11 @ Minnesota Vikings - WIN (7-3) 12 Pittsburgh Steelers - WIN (8-3) 13 @ Philadelphia Eagles - LOSS (8-4) 14 @ Green Bay Packers - TOSS UP 15 Cleveland Browns - WIN 16 Green Bay Packers - TOSS UP 17 @ San Francisco 49ers - TOSS UP 18 Detroit Lions - LOSS Still feels like 10-11 wins is the most likely outcome. The crazy piece to all of this is the Division is very much in play. The Week 18 DET game may decide the division. GB's schedule gets tough after next week, they have MIN, @DET, CHI, @DEN, @CHI, BAL, then @MIN. 7 straight tough opponents, 4 on the road, no back to back home games.

MIN is interesting, as the season is wearing on, they are slowly getting worse across the board. Now 12th in Total Defense, and 18th in Scoring Defense. 22nd against the Run, and 9th against the Pass. The Bears offense is now 3rd in Total Offense, 2nd in Rushing, 11th in Passing, 7th in Scoring. MIN on offense is 21st in scoring, 24th in Total Offense, 22nd in Passing, 24th in Rushing. The problem for the Bears is Special Teams and Defense. Defense is 28th in scoring, 27th in Total Defense, 26th against the Pass, 24th against the Run. So based on the congunkulator, the most logical outcome is Bears 23-20. Last week it projected an 8 pt win, and if Wright catches that INT, it is a 7-pt win, so I am rolling with it. Bears OFF +0.03 x Vikes DEF -0.07 / -0.04 x 62.3 plays= (-2.49 DIFF) 26.6 Bears O x 23.7 Vikes D + DIFF = 22.66 (23 pts) Vikes OFF -0.14 x Bears DEF -0.03 / -0.085 x 58.5 plays= (-4.97 DIFF) 22.3 Vikes O x 27.4 Bears D + DIFF = 19.88 (20 pts)

Penix is like an afterthought for the 2024 draft class. Last year it was Daniels, Williams, Nix. This year it is Maye, Williams, Nix.

There are 3 QBs tied for the league lead in 4th Quarter Comebacks and Game Winning Drives with 4. Mayfield, Nix, and Williams. Baker and Caleb have the same record at 6-3, yet Baker is an MVP candidate. So odd.

Hopefully the sack narrative for Williams is gone. Here are just the 2023 and 2024 QBs with a higher sack rate than Caleb Williams for their careers: Levis - 11.04% Maye - 9.96% Howell - 9.60% Young - 9.08% Daniels - 8.99% There are 29 QBs this season with a higher sack rate than Williams. Can the media finally move on from this narrative?

6-3, going 4-4 the rest of the way is 10-7. Assuming they can beat CLE due to how bad CLE's offense is, they have to go 3-4 against MIN, GB, GB, DET, PIT, SF, and PHI. Just say they split with GB and beat MIN, then they need to go 1-3 against DET, PIT, SF, and PHI. I could see them beating PIT and SF and losing to DET and PHI.

In the post game interview, once Williams saw Kmet 1v1 with no other defender in the area, he already made his mind up. Oz was open, trailing Kmet, but that dude was dropping everything. So I am glad he didn't throw it to him. Who else was wide open?