adam

With the Bears finishing 5-12 last year makes it feel like a herculean effort to even get to a winning record at 9-8. However, turn arounds with much more wins are almost commonplace nowadays. Last year alone, 3 of the top 9 teams in the NFL all had a win differential of +6 from the previous season: WAS 4-13 > 12-5 (+8) MIN 7-10 > 14-3 (+7) LAC 5-12 > 11-6 (+6) I feel like there is less correlation from year to year than ever before. In the season prior to winning 12 games, WAS lost their last 8 games, MIN finished 1-6 with their only win a 3-0 barnburner against LVR. LAC finished 1-8 and their only win was a 6-0 win against NE. So as much as this feels like the Bears are building on a 5-win season. They really are starting over with all teams 0-0. Ben Johnson has led an offense that has been top 5 in scoring and top 4 in yards in all of the last 3 seasons. While Dennis Allen, as a DC, has coached a top 11 scoring unit in his last 3 seasons as a DC. There were 7 teams to have a top 11 offense AND top 11 defense in 2024, they all made the playoffs, the worst team (DEN) had 10 wins, and their average win total for the group was 12.4.

11-6 is fair. I think there is a big variance because there are still a lot of unknowns with how the combination of things will work. We know Ben Johnson is a great play caller, and we can see how that impacts other teams with comparable play callers (Reid, McVay, Shanahan, LaFleur, etc). A good coach who is a great play caller almost gives every team a floor of 7 to 8 wins just by default. I think the Bears basement is 7 to 8 wins. That is if nothing goes right. RB and Edge are issues, LT never gets resolved, and Caleb doesn't take the next step. I think the median is 9-11 wins, the more things go right, the more wins.

Good luck with surgery!

GMs, I have renewed our annual TalkBears Fantasy Football Keeper league, which is now entering its 16th season. We need at least one new GM for this upcoming season. There may be more openings if we don't get commitments in time for the draft. Once we get the confirmations, we can schedule the draft for late August and I can send out the LeagueSafe payment dues ($75 per team). The winning payouts are as follows: 1st - $440 2nd - $200 3rd - $75 4th - $35 The payment deadline is usually Week 4, so people have some time to pay the dues. However, if payment is not received by then, that GM will be removed and the best recommended roster will be played for that team the rest of the season. If you have any questions, let me know, we normally conduct the draft a few days prior to the kickoff game around 7pm Central. I will send out a weekly reminder until the last week of July or until we have 10 commitments.

and I am sure Johnson will go more on 4th downs than the previous Bears coaches, maybe not to the level of Campbell, but I am sure he will go more than Flus/Waldron/Getsy ever did.

I was thinking JAX, new HC/Playcaller, bad division. CIN has to play BAL and PIT 4 times a year. I think it will come down to their defense. They are going to score 20+ every game.

I know I numbered them, but that was more for a count than a ranking.

Yeah he didn't need elite production in sacks to have a top 10 defense: 2023 Carl Granderson 8.5 Demario Davis 6.5 2022 Cameron Jordan 8.5 Kaden Elliss 7.0

What would be cool is if DA is content staying as one of the premier DCs (like Fangio) instead of trying HC again. Some people don't realize that NO was his 2nd stint as a HC. He was the Raiders HC from 2012-2014. Interestingly enough, he was fired in season both times and never finished his 3rd season with either team. However, people may also not know how good he has been as a DC. From 2017-2023 between his time as a DC and HC, his defense was top 10 in scoring 5 out of 7 years and 13th and 14th the other 2 years, and 5 years out of 7 in the top 10 in Takeaways. To put that into perspective, Fangio, in all his years as a DC and HC, never had a 7 year stretch where his defense finished in the top 14 in scoring defense or had 5 out of 7 years in the top 10 in Takeaways. I honestly think a lot of people are underestimating how good this defense can be.

It's just another illustration on how bad the franchise has been in the passing game. He didn't really do much in Philly, but that would've been enough to make him the best WR in franchise history.

Looking around the league, this year looks like it is going to be extremely competitive. I would say there are 20 competitive teams (w/ the Bears being one of them) that all have a shot at the playoffs. Then out of those 20, I would say 7 have a realistic shot at the Super Bowl. 1. PHI 2. KC 3. BAL 4. DET 5. BUF 6. LAR 7. LAC ------------- 8. TB (lost OC to JAX, easier division) 9. HOU (Easy division but) 10. WAS (was last year a fluke?) 11. DEN (was last year a fluke?) 12. GB (No secondary) 13. CIN (will they have a defense?) 14. PIT (which Rodgers will show up?) 15. SEA (Darnold vs Geno) 16. SF (Purdy without Deebo) 17. DAL (Can Dak rebound?) 18. MIN (depends on McCarthy) 19. ATL (depends on Penix, easier division)

Yeah, JSN warned us during his CHGO interview. That was a red flag then and still is today for Waldron. Now it seems like every position group is finally being coached right. I still find it wild that Eric Bieniemy is the RB Coach, Randle El the WR Coach, and Al Harris is the DB coach all the while having Dennis Allen as the DC and Ben Johnson as the HC/Play Caller. It doesn't feel real. We have been so beaten down by always getting the wrong HC, or a bad OC, etc, etc.

Goff had 3,700 passing yards to WRs and TEs, and his group was St. Brown, Williams, LaPorta, Patrick, Raymond, and Wright, so your 3,550 to WR/TEs checks out. I was a little extra optimistic and had him throwing for 4K to WR/TEs and about 450 to everyone else. My thinking was the top 6 pass catchers are so good, that there is almost no point to target anyone else. However, I am probably downplaying a guy like Zaccheaus, who has had 500 receiving yards in 2 out of the last 3 seasons. So that would also contribute into that 4K to WR/TEs.

I have seen some updated projections with Moore and Odunze both hitting 1K receiving yards. I think this has a great shot at happening.

Flus went on a Podcast recently and answered some questions related to this story. People seem to be crossing streams. Caleb never said he wasn't coach, or that they never watched film together. I still think this is a non-story that the media tried to make a thing in support of the book coming out. However, Cowherd did have a good nugget of info that I forgot about, that Flus was 0-18 on the road on Sundays as a HC. I double checked and he is correct. Flus had a win on MNF in 22 as his only road win, then doubled that to 2 road wins in 2023, but one was on TNF and the other MNF. Then he had zero road wins last year, and the Bears actually got a Sunday road win in Week 18 in GB, but Flus was long gone when that happened lol.

Stroud and the Texans underwhelmed last year. They were 10-7 in the worst division in football. Outside of the division, they were 5-6. They relied solely on their defense to win games.

Yeah, it's one thing to have a 70-yd scoring drive, but TDs, that's wild, and like you said, without a mobile QB.

Bagent also said Johnson would be the best position coach for every position. He was also spot on about Flus, he said he was a great defensive coach but didn't do much with the offense or specific position groups. For me, I am truly optimistic for the first time since 2018. That was the last time things felt like they were coming together from all sides, and then that went into high gear with the Mack trade.

Here is more on the Ben Johnson effect, 70+ Yard TD drives, DET had 46, CHI had 17, literally 1st and last. Even if the Bears just jump to the middle of the pack, that would be almost double from last year.

Great Bagent interview, you can tell this year really is "different". I know the rinse and repeat history makes most of us into the ultimate pessimists because we have lived through "this year is different" 30+ times, but these interviews really do paint a different picture: Besides the normal stuff we have heard before, I did like that Bagent specifically pointed out that DomRob has been visible. He said he just had a baby, so he thinks it is dad strength or something because no one wants to block him.

It looks like the Bears dodged a huge bullet and picked the correct Shemar. Stewart is already turning out to be a wasted pick for Cincy and it's only early June.

Over the last 2 seasons (his only starting ones) he comps strongly between Geno Smith and Tua. Basically, if Geno and Tua had a baby, it would be Jordan Love.

I don't mind the new kickoff format, I just don't like being penalized for a touchback. I could see if you kick it out of the end zone, then sure, penalize the kicking team for preventing a kick return, but giving the receiving the team 35 yards for catching the ball in the end zone seems crazy to me. The 30 already felt far to me, the 35 is going to be wild.

against the NFC North/Central: Love 8-10 Rodgers 59-25-1 Favre 82-44 I just love how Packers fan put Love on some pedestal like he is anywhere close to Favre or Rodgers. Love is a .500 QB (literally 21-21) and has a losing record against the North. He is also 8-14 on the road but somehow a top franchise QB. That does not compute.

They did make a change to the touchbacks for 2025 though, they will now be placed at the 35 (previously the 30, and originally the 20). To me, the 35 seems a little excessive. Here are some notes from a recent article: The average field position after all kickoffs in 2024 was the 30-yard line. After a return, the average starting position was the 29-yard line. Seven touchdowns were scored off a kickoff return last year, the most since 2021. There were 59 "big play" returns, which the NFL defines as 40-plus yards, the most since 2016.