adam

Don't look at 2023's lol. Bryce Young, #1 prospect with a 93.7 rating. The best WR, Quentin Johnson. Darnell Wright, the 44th best prospect. Gervon Dexter was 124th. It feels easier to rank them within their position groups than it is to merge them into one consensus list.

There is one red flag for me on Williams that will come out at the combine. Some say he is not 6'1" and may only be 6'0", I know that may not seem like a lot but the NFL O and D-Lines are traditionally on average taller than the average college O-Lines because they are the elite of the elite. Maye, Daniels, and Penix are all 6'3" and above. Fields is 6'3", Trubisky was 6'2". So if Williams comes in shorter, that may hurt his stock.

I still have NO clue what Poles saw in Velus Jones, I think everyone's mocks had Cordale Flott (CB) in that round. For some reason, the sim drafts always put him in mine. The craziest thing, Velus and Cordale are cousins. Small world, lol.

It looks like St. Brown is out, and Velus and Scott are both questionable. I hope Velus doesn't play. Check this out: Since last season, when Velus gets a rush, target, KR, or PR, the Bears are 2-16 and lost their first 14 games when one of those occurred. They are 5-6 when he doesn't touch the ball or is targeted (or is inactive). Just like Claypool, cut this guy already.

Honestly, I think it comes down to this. If the Bears get the #1 pick, they are drafting Williams. Even if Fields plays better, I just can't see Poles putting all his chips into that basket and going two years in a row with the #1 pick and missing on both Stroud and potentially Williams. Williams is no sure thing, but like others and you have said, he hasn't had the best team around him and literally carried the team on his back a few times. I think if there is any other pick, I think the Bears keep Fields, trade down and gain draft capital (maybe a 2025 1st), and just keep building up the entire roster.

Fields doesn't even need to do it a lot. 3-4 throws a game over the middle, in rhythm, and it changes the entire dynamic of the offense, because if you have to spy him, AND defend the run against the RBs, AND play the entire field in the secondary, the defense will be in conflict on every play. Fields athleticism adds an element and threat that most other QBs don't have, but if that just replaces MoF throwing, it negates the benefit because if they can't both defend the MoF and spy him at the same time. Right now those effects are negated, and then the outcomes become dependent on external forces (quality of other team, officials, weather, etc).

Do not go anywhere, I will do better moderating everything. This whole Fields situation is incredibly polarizing and as you can see, we have some super passionate fans who want nothing more than the Bears to succeed. We can all agree to disagree and I will start moderating the posts better, especially when it gets overly personal, we don't need that, we aren't Lions or Packers fans. This forum has been around for too long to lose members over things like this. For the entire group, please DM me if you have an issue with a post so the admins can review. I try not to step in unless absolutely necessary to do so as I don't want to censor anyone.

nope, I am Adam, I came over from SoxTalk a long time ago as RME_JICO, just changed my name once I retired from the Army.

My dudes, it's ok to disagree, as this is clearly a very devoted and passionate group of life long fans. You can agree to disagree and argue to your heart's content that someone is right or wrong. I am wrong 50% of the time, every time! Just please keep it civil, I am sure there are comments that push your buttons, but we all want the same thing, and at the end of the day, the route to get there may be different and/or look different than what you want or believe. That's cool. I would rather have different points of view than everyone stroking each other off all day. So don't feel like you have to not post or neuter what you say, just keep it on the topic. I honestly learn a lot because it makes me go back and relook at stuff and a lot of times my initial judgement was wrong or didn't have all the details. It's ok to believe someone else is wrong, and even pointing it out, just be cool about it, life's too short to take on any additional stress or anger. Let's just #BearDown and get a win on Sunday! @ASHKUM BEAR will be there to see it!

I am good either way. If we win out, I doubt we get very far in the playoffs, and that's if we even make it at 9-8. However, closing out the season on a big winning streak would be good to build off of, and that also means Fields balled out. That probably means they run it back. If we lose out, it will make decisions much easier in the building AND give the team a better draft pick. HC, OC, QB will all be jettisoned. I think the worst scenario is like going 2-3 or 3-2, with no consistency. That feels like fool's gold, and you have to reset coaching for sure if that occurs.

The NE win against PIT gives CAR basically a 2-win gap between them and the next two teams. With ARZ's SoS, it looks like both CAR and NE would win that tiebreaker, so the only one of concern seems to be NE's SoS which at this moment is slightly lower than CARs heading into the weekend. If CAR loses, that would drop CAR's back under NE's. From what I can tell, an opponent's loss drops the SoS by .005 and a win increases it between by about the same. Here are the uncommon opponents, these the set of teams that get more wins will hurt that team's chances at the tiebreaker. So for the Bears, we want CAR to have the weaker teams and more losses with that group. CAR's group has a slightly better record and 2 more games remaining. This also only matters in the event of a tie, which would mean CAR won 2 more games than NE, which would drop their SoS by .010 total. NE PHI 10-2 NYJ 4-8 LVR 5-7 BUF 6-6 WAS 4-9 NYG 4-8 LAC 5-7 PIT 7-6 KC 8-4 DEN 6-6 59-63 (48 games remaining) CAR ATL 6-6 SEA 6-6 MIN 6-6 DET 9-3 HOU 7-5 CHI 4-8 TEN 4-8 TB 5-7 JAX 8-4 GB 6-6 61-59 (50 games remaining)

Lovie last year and now Mitch this year with back to back losses. Mitch is the true NVP in my book!

Fields play reminds me of that meme where the girl changes faces after taking a drink. One game you have that disgusting look on your face, then the next game, you say, hmm that was a pleasant surprise. So in order for him to be THE GUY, he has to ball out these last 5 weeks and leave no doubt that the progress noted was real and this is who he is now. If he flounders, has the same types of mental mistakes, then he is just auditioning for another team. One thing to look at will be the playcalling. If there are no over the middle throws, they are probably protecting him from INTs and negative plays. I would rather have them let him loose, and that way you can get a true eval of what he can and can't do. If it is too much for him, at least you know, but masking stuff with a bazillion screens tells us nothing.

For ARZ, are they even in a position to draft a WR that high? That would mean all in on Murray, but with that O-Line? Their offense and defense are near the bottom of the league. Adding MHJ would be like the Ferrari at the trailer park.

You really think NYG are taking a QB after paying Daniel Jones earlier this year? $69M in dead money in 2024. They may still draft one but that would be a huge boat anchor because if Jones is on the bench or cut, they are eating that money either way. Also, if they draft one AND keep Jones, they could be paying him $47M (cap hit) to sit on the pine. Cutting him would seem to be highly unlikely because they would need to shave another $22M off the cap. Granted, they could do that with other cuts, but then 3-4 vet starters would be UDFA or vet min guys.

Good plan, and that's awesome. Have fun, and drink one for me!

Mitch Trubisky is willing the Patriots to victory. Wow he looks bad. 3-8, 19 yds, 1 INT, which is a 6.3 Passer Rating. A Patriots win would be huge for the Bears (it would almost assure the Bears of the #1 pick from CAR's pick) because they would have a 2 game gap between them and NE and ARZ.

If you use the Rich Hill model, #1 is worth 1000, #11 is worth 358, it would be #43, which is 138, a #1 next year normally worth half the value, so 179 + Crosby who should be worth a mid-1st (305) = 980. So that seems close enough, but with Sweat already getting paid, they probably would rather trade for a 3T.

Oh I agree, and I think both can be true. Fields can struggle in the pocket, not throw to open guys, and hold onto the ball too long, while the O-Line can be bad. I think that is what has made the evaluation this difficult and this long (3 seasons and we could potentially still be evaluating him).

Oh awesome, they have to win if you are there representing TalkBears.com. Wave to the camera, and dress warm!

I almost believe that the hit rate for a QB in the first is similar to all other positions, meaning the entire draft is a crapshoot and it is not solely tied to the QB position. The higher you draft anyone, the higher the probability that they will turn out to be good/great than a later pick.

So I looked all the way back to 2010 and there have been 165 QBs drafted. Out of all of those, only 22 were deemed as franchise QBs, guys that got 2nd contracts from their original team, and started 6+ years (if drafted before 2017), otherwise I made an objective call for more recent QBs (Murray is, Daniel/Mac Jones is not). With those parameters, of the 22 "Franchise" QBs, 15 were from the 1st round pick. That is 68.8% of the franchise QBs coming from the 1st round, with 31.2% coming from all other rounds combined. But how many 1st rounders work out? Of the 39 drafted in the first round, 15 were franchise QBs. If you use a first round pick on a QB, there is a 38.5% chance you will get a franchise QB. The odds of you getting a franchise QB between the 2nd and 7th round is 5.93%. So you are 6 times more likely to get a franchise QB in the 1st, or it would take you 6 picks in the 2nd-7th rounds to have the same 38.5% chance at drafting a franchise QB. Note - There were a few QBs I put TBD on and didn't include them in the numbers (Young, Richardson, Pickett, Levis, Love, Willis, Howell, and Ridder). If someone wants to make a determination on them, let me know, either franchise QB or bust. Here is a list of franchise QBs, most defined with their performance on their drafting team. So guys like Dalton and Carr qualify based on their numbers with the Bengals and Raiders respectively. Did I miss someone? Should someone be dropped from this list: C.J. Stroud Texans Trevor Lawrence Jaguars Joe Burrow Bengals Ryan Tannehill Dolphins Tua Tagovailoa Dolphins Justin Herbert Chargers Kyler Murray Cardinals Josh Allen Bills Derek Carr Raiders Lamar Jackson Ravens Patrick Mahomes Chiefs Deshaun Watson Texans Jared Goff Rams Andrew Luck Colts Robert Griffin Redskins Cam Newton Panthers Jalen Hurts Eagles Andy Dalton Bengals Russell Wilson Seahawks Dak Prescott Cowboys Kirk Cousins Redskins Brock Purdy 49ers Of all the QBs drafted, the hit rate is about 14% with all draft picks considered. I am sure it is lower if you count UDFAs who have made the 53-man roster. Thoughts?

I totally agree about letting Fields play out his rookie deal. However, I think the rationale is this team is too good to ever get the 1st overall pick again and if Poles trades it in back to back years without taking "his" QB and Fields does the same thing next year, Poles is gone. At the end of the day, they need their scouts and all other inputs (analytics, etc) to determine if the projected development of a rookie QB will be higher than the projected career trajectory of Fields. The difference is Fields has a huge data set while the rookie only has a projection. You can only have one starting QB, so Poles has to decide where he puts his chips. Just like this year, Poles did not think Stroud or Young would be better than Fields. He is 1/2 in that assessment so far. For the 2024 draft, if they get the #1 pick, he has to think Fields will be better than Williams/Maye. Also, one other factor, salary. If you did extend Fields, what do you give him annually? Then once you have that number, what other positions will lose their high paid starter? So is Fields -Jaylon Johnson better than Williams + Jaylon Johnson. Which way is the team better?

Supposedly the Lions have some issues in the secondary AND their starting Center Ragnow may be out. That would make them slide their G to C and they would have a backup Guard in. So two potential vulnerable positions on the road. The Lions won't have CJ Gardner-Johnson (CB), Alim McNeill (DT), and more than likely Ragnow (C) for this game. Ragnow is considered one of the best Centers in the league, so there will be a drop off there. When the move Glasgow in to C, that makes them start a backup G where there is another drop off. The Bears interior should be able to get some pressures. I didn't know this but McNeill is legit, was the 2nd highest graded defender in PFF. CJGJ was 8th. If those two were on the Bears, they would be the 2nd highest graded player and the 3rd. So those are two huge losses that the Bears will not face this weekend. While the Bears come in the healthiest they have been all season, including Week 1. With all these things going for the Bears, there are zero excuses from top down, Flus, Getsy, Fields, Chris Morgan, and the rest of the players. If you can't beat a team at home, off a bye, with a health and rest advantage, to a team you basically dominated for 56 minutes, then the outcome will be a true reflection of who you are. Fields thumb should basically be near if not 100% at this point. He will get a lesser DLine and Secondary against him. If there ever was a game, it's this one. Bears by 12!

Another interesting note. Listening again to some national media, I love how the narratives are literally polar opposite for Fields (and Bears QBs in general) and other QBs. When Goff struggles = the O-Line is injured, not giving him enough time. When Love struggles = he is in his first year as a starter, young WRs, injuries. When Fields struggles = Fields takes too many sacks, holds the ball too long, can't read a defense. Now granted some of those are true, but rarely do people say the Bears O-Line was a mess AND Fields holds the ball too long. Both can be true. I have the perfect example of this. If you have never listened to or watched Adam Rank's Podcast, this is a great one to see the polar opposite narratives. Carmen Vitali works for Fox and covers the NFC North. She is very low on Fields and very high on Love and the Lions. A few minutes in they get into this discussion and you can see exactly what I am talking about. She justifies why the Lions are playing worse now and why Love struggled, but when the same conditions are for the Bears, it's all Fields. Rank calls her out on a few, which was good on him. On a side note, the bar seems very low to be a talking head these days, no offense to anyone, but man the bar is low. If you have a few mins, take a listen/watch: