adam

That was some of the ugliest officiating I have seen in a game in a long time, and that says a lot considering how much we have seen the Beas get hosed over the years. Out of all the calls and non-calls, how do they not throw a flag on the MVS DPI. It was so blatant. On the Mahomes hit, I thought it was ticky tack, but if you look at the defender's foot, he steps out as he hits Mahomes, and a defender has cannot make a play when they are out of bounds. Then on the hail mary, Kelce got pushed in the back which prevented him from making a play on the ball. That was clearly DPI and not hand fighting.

It would be very similar to what both DET and JAX did last season. DET started 1-6, then went 8-2 the last 10. The Bears started 2-5 and would need to got 7-3 to match that. They are currently 2-3 and need 5 more wins. JAX started 2-6, and finished 7-2. The Bears also started 2-6, and are currently 2-2 in their first 4 and need to go 5-0 to match them as well. JAX had a 5-game win streak to end the season. It would hard to move on from that type of finish. That would mean both the offense and defense were cooking.

That GB win was unexpected against KC, and that win really puts them in a good position to make the playoffs. That also makes it much tougher for the Bears slim playoff hopes. They now need to still leapfrog MIN, LAR, SEA, TB, and NO/ATL. Before there were options, now all those teams need to lose games they are expected to win AND the Bears need to win out. In Week 14, we can expect SEA to lose to SF, and LAR to lose to BAL. That's a good start. Then TB plays ATL, so one of them will lose. That is 3 out of 4, and MIN plays LVR. We need to be big LVR fans this upcoming week. I was interested to see what game outcome combinations would need to occur for the Bears to make the playoffs at 9-8 and even 8-9. To make the playoffs at 9-8, the Bears need NO to beat LAR in Week 16. The Bears also need MIN to lose to DET/GB/DET. In Week 18, if ATL beats NO, they would be 10-7 and win the division. If NO wins both teams would be 9-8 and 6-6 in the conference, so CHI would beat both of them making that game irrelevant for the Bears at 9-8/7-5. For the Bears to make the playoffs at 8-9 (losing only to CLE), they would also need TB to beat NO in Week 17 (to prevent NO from getting to 9 wins) and SEA would need to lose to either TEN or PIT (to not get 9 wins). These are the unexpected outcomes. In the case of 8-9, they would prefer ATL wins the division and beats both TB (Wk14) and NO (Wk18). The grid below shows that outcome (green=win, red=loss, blue=win as underdog, yellow=deciding grid game, orange=lose as favorite): Thoughts? It is crazy that there is a realistic viable path to the playoffs at 8-9 as long as the loss is to CLE. There are really only 2 unexpected outcomes that need to occur, and they are not that far fetched (TB beats NO in Wk 17 and SEA loses to either TEN or PIT.) If everything else occurs as displayed, they get in at 8-9 with a 7-5 conf record which is the tie breaker that allows them to leapfrog the other 8-9 teams. 9-8 is much better, but they still need help from NO beating LAR in Week 16 and ensuring ATL beats NO in Week 18 (which they should). Any loss other than CLE ends the Bears playoff hopes. There are no scenarios where they get in at 8-9 with a 6-6 conference record.

Jets in full tank mode, releasing all one-year contract vets.

Does the age thing scare you about Penix? He is going to be 24 in May. That age thing matters when you are mostly playing against 18 and 19 year old kids. I just don't know how much. If he can play, he can play. I like his tape, and he is definitely one of the top 5 QBs.

Richard or Willy Penix would've been more appropriate right?

Another question is, does the new acquisition upgrade that position more than the other? So MHJ vs Mooney, or Bowers vs Tonyan. I don't think you really could go wrong with either, but Bowers provides something unique that defenses have to adjust to. On one of the telecasts, they were talking about how Georgia used Bowers to get the mismatches on almost every play where teams had to start doubling or bracketing him. He really is a seam buster.

So all the Tankathon Teams for Week 13 have played, so the only thing that will change slightly is the SoS. CAR and NE may come down to a SoS tiebreaker, but it looks like NE has the tougher schedule which will make CAR win the tie breaker. For CAR upcoming opponents, NO, ATL, GB, JAX, and TB are all playing for a playoff spot, so those are going to be some tough games to win. NE's only chance is Week 18 against the Jets. It might be Bill's last game. I think they win that one. ARZ looks much better with Murray but besides playing the Bears (in Chicago), they have SF, PHI, and SEA. So it looks like the Bears game is their only realistic shot at a win. It will only matter for draft status if they win and teams like WAS and NYG lose out. Any current 4 win team that loses out would jump ARZ in the draft. So they have a lot of incentive to lose out to be honest. They could drop from #3 to possibly #6 or #7 if they beat the Bears. So lose out, locked into #3, beat the Bears, draft #6 or #7. WAS is clearly tanking and their only chance at a win is Week 16 against Jets. Otherwise, they play LAR, SF, and DAL. They look so bad, their defense was gutted (lost Sweat and Young). I don't think they win another game. NYG is terrible too. They got PHI twice, LAR, NO, and GB. They probably don't win another game. NYJ have two winnable games, I think they beat WAS and lose to NE. However, they could easily lose out or win both. For TEN, they play MIA, HOUx2, SEA, and JAX. They really don't have any winnable games, but I think they eek one out anyway, Vrabel teams always do, I will say probably one vs HOU. The Bears are the wild card. They are in the tankathon, but clearly the best team. However, if I use the same projections as the other teams, they probably only win 2, against ARZ and ATL, and even then really just the ARZ one. So either 5 or 6 wins. Here are the draft/playoff outcomes based on the Bears final record: Bears 4-13 (lose out, #3 pick because ARZ would get their 4th win beating the Bears, NYG and WAS lose SoS with CHI) Bears 5-12 (finish 1-4, #6 pick) - most likely based on current teams rankings Bears 6-11 (finish 2-3, #8 pick) - most likely based on similar projections Bears 7-10 (finish 3-2, #12/13 pick) - most likely based on recent win/loss Bears 8-9 (finish 4-1, #17/18 pick or #7 seed) - most likely Bears thing to do, finish as the best non-playoff team Bears 9-8 (finish 5-0, #6 or #7 seed) - most likely based on recent play

Philly down big 35-13 with 7 mins left. They pulled Hurts for a concussion, I thought they were pulling him to give up, but I was wrong.

After how the Bears looked against DET, they should win out. Block Garrett and you can beat CLE. Then ARZ and ATL should be wins. That leaves GB Week 18 which would basically be a play in game.

Winning out is more than likely Wild Card 3, so that would be #19 or #20. Just say they win out and miss the playoffs, they would more than likely be the best non-playoff team at 9-8. That is pick #18.

Of the 4 win teams that could impact the Bears actual pick: Commanders lost, Jets lost, Titans lost, and the Bucs are playing the Panthers. So it is a double win for the Bucs to beat the Panthers for the Bears. If the Bears win against the Lions next week, they drop to #8 or #9 depending on the outcome of the Bucs/Panthers game.

Thank you Mitch Trubisky! 24-3 Cards, in Pittsburgh. Crazy.

He was literally their entire offense today.

Lol, and SEA plays SF then PHI the next two. The last 2 WC spots are going to come down to Week 18.

Lions hang on to beat the Saints. After starting 21-0, the Saints outscored the Lions 28-12. The Saints got the ball back down 5 with 5:54 to go, get into Lions territory and Winston couldn't find the magic. LaPorta was 9-140, while all other players had 7-73. Seriously, the Bears need to take this guy out of the game next week. The Lions are 3-1 in their last 4 games. They beat the Chargers 41-38 with a last second FG. They beat the Bears (we know how that one went), they lost to

Yep and on cue, Trubisky fumbles and the Cards score a TD, Card 17-3. So unless Trubisky turns into Mason Rudolph, the Cards are going to go to 3 wins.

Some interesting games for tankathon. ARZ (2 wins) is leading 10-3 in PIT, Trubisky now in. Crazy to think if Mitch plays bad, he can actually help the Bears draft position. The Chargers (4 wins) only have a 6-0 lead on the Patriots (2 wins). The Falcons are leading the Jets (4 wins) 13-8. The Titans (4 wins) have a 17-16 lead against the Colts. Commanders (4 wins) getting destroyed as expected, they will fall to 4-9 and bump the Bears to the 5th pick.

Sucks for FSU, you go undefeated and win your conference and lose out to Alabama who lost to Texas and barely beat Auburn last weekend. Strength of schedule killed them but record should trump SoS.

I am starting to see national media turn positive for the Bears. Gordon, Brisker, Johnson, Edwards, and Sweat are getting a lot praise nationally. On offense, I keep hearing about Kmet, Moore, Jenkins, Wright, and Braxton Jones. When Foreman was playing, he was getting some attention, and now I see that put on Roshcon, which is nice to see. Fields always got attention, so that is hard to decipher, but hearing about 10-12 Bears plays nationally on a regular basis has me hopeful for a turnaround. Many are even saying the record is not indicative of the talent on the roster and that if they keep trending like they have been, they are going to be a tough out down the stretch. I would like to believe that and see that. I hope everyone enjoyed their bye week and college football. Now we get to sit back and watch the tankathon standings for CAR's pick.

Happy for the kid, happy for the win, sort of a relief after the DET game. Now go beat DET in 2 weeks and Joe Flacco in 3.

I try to see it from everyone's perspective, including what the team will do. Personally, I want Fields to succeed and be H1M. That one condition makes this team take a monumental leap next season with 2x 1st rounders, regardless of what Poles does with them (draft 2 blue chippers, draft 1/trade 1 for a vet blue chip + future picks). However, as the weeks go on, he is trending towards not being that guy. Very few guys turn it around after 40 starts unless it is a reclamation project like Geno Smith but that is with another team. It happens, but when I think about it from the team's view and Poles' employment status, the only way he can ensure his own status while looking like he is making the right move for the organization is drafting a QB and trading Fields. Can you imagine if he passes on Stroud to keep Fields (Stroud was my #1 over Young), then passes on (Williams/Maye) for Fields only to have Fields be the same guy he has for the last 3 seasons? He would be fired by the deadline next year. There is a scenario for Fields though. If Fields balls out these last 5 games, and he ends up with 5-6 really good games out of his last 9 (including 2x for WAS/DEN), he may allow them to go with Plan A: Draft MHJ/Impact Edge or draft one pick and trade one an additional first in 2025+blue chipper. Plan B is to draft a QB and only pick up one blue chipper, but if that QB is better than Fields, it's equal or better (especially considering salary cap). Coaching is a huge part, the other players are too. I think of it as a car, the driver, the pit crew, the other cars, and the track (Bristol vs Talladega). All the factors impact the outcome of the race, but the driver is ultimately the one who decides 99% of the races. Fields is that driver, and the outcome of a lot of games have been riding on his shoulders. He needs to take over games and put them away with near mistake-free football. If he can do that, he stays.

I think everyone had their hopes up about Justin in Year #3, and due to a wide variety of things, he has not made as high of a leap as others or that most would've expected. The 3 main comps I have heard for recent QBs that got their true WR1 were Allen, Hurts, and Tua. Here are their Year 2 to 3 Year averages for passing yards per game, per attempt, and then a generic stat like QBR. Year 2 to Year 3 YPG - Y/A - QBR Allen - 193>284 (+91) 6.7>7.9 (+1.2) 49.4>76.6 (+27.2) Hurts 209>246 (+37) 7.3>8.0 (+0.7) 54.6>68.3 (+13.7) Tua - 204>272 (+68) 6.8>8.9 (+2.1) 55.7>70.6 (+14.9) Average +65 YPG +1.3 Y/A +18.6 QBR Fields 149>198 (+49) 7.1>7.1 (+/- 0.0) 56.3>44.7 (-11.6) Fields improved his YPG but not even to the point of the average of the other QBs. The other 3 started with higher averages, so technically any gains from them should've been harder. For Y/A, every QB except Fields saw an improvement. Then the dagger for me is QBR. It takes so many things into account and is truly an objective grade compared to PFF and others. In this case, all 3 of the others improved by no less than 13 pts, with them improving by an average of 18. Fields is down 11 from 2022 (so there is a 29 pt deviation there). Now the biggest caveat is, the year ain't over. Fields has 5 games to significantly influence all those numbers, but in order to do that, he needs more games like DEN and WAS. Those were the games we have all been waiting for. Now the next step is doing them consistently. So with 5 games remaining, he needs at least 3 of those type games. My conspiracy theory is that the team has already made the decision, that is why you saw some extremely conservative game plans the last few two weeks. They are going to limit one of Fields negatives, INTs, by not allowing him to throw into high danger areas. I am sure this is them building up trade value for him so when it is all said and done, his INT% is not one of the worst in the league. It looks to be working with no picks in the last two games. I could be wrong, but it just feels that way to me. I would rather see them let him rip it and see what happens.

How would you prioritize them? Like if you could only have one, what position are you filling? I think it might be OC, then FS (assuming Jackson is cut), and WR2.

Like I said, Scott gets another year at least, but he is not trending in the right direction. His snap counts went from 13 in Week 1 to 40 in Weeks 7 and 9. Then in Week 10, he dropped to 28, then 27, then all the way down to 12 in Week 12. Week 11 was the Detroit game where he fumbled and misplayed that deep ball. Getting your snaps cut in more than half feels like a demotion/punishment. Scott didn't even have a single target in Week 12. Prior to Week 12, Scott had at least 2 targets per game in 7 games. With only 12 snaps, he is near the healthy scratch area.