adam

Yep, it is wild how many dependent variables there are.

mine too, my mullet is gone but not forgotten One thing I think we can all agree on, this is going to be an even more exciting offseason than last year.

I think they will already know what they are going to do when they decide what they are going to do with the #1 pick (assuming they get it). If they trade it, we know what they are doing. If they keep it, we won't know Fields fate until draft day. I don't think they will let the decision go to the 5th year option decision date.

That is Fields' fatal flaw right now. I think his internal clock is messed up from all the sacks and hits he has taken. He bails on plays a split second early, and if you think about it, it makes sense. He might see the guy open, but feels by the time he winds up to throw, he is gonna get hit, so it is easier or faster for him to tuck and run. Off topic question, how many opening drive TDs have the Bears scored this year? Think of a number right now, then scroll down. v v v v v v v If you scrolled down, the answer is in the quote. v v v v

Oh man, very sorry to hear that. Sending prayers to you, your wife and your entire family. That is not easy. I hope she wins that battle and comes out cancer free.

Anyone have concerns about Poles' teams' evaluation of college WRs? He now has drafted Velus Jones and Tyler Scott in back to back drafts. Velus is clearly not an NFL WR. Scott is 17th for rookie WRs in yards. WRs that were drafted after him with more production include: Puka Nacua (leads all rookies), Demario Douglas 36-410, Dontayvion Wicks 20-331, and Trey Palmer 25-227. Scott has 10-81 yards on 20 targets (50% catch rate), 1 drop, and 1 fumble lost. I will give Scott another year, as he was a 4th rounder, but he really hasn't shown any specific trait or area of the game that he is good in. If Poles went WR instead of Pickens at the first pick in the 3rd, he could've had Tank Dell (47-709), Josh Downs (48-566), Michael Wilson (28-435), or Jalin Hyatt (17-330). All of these guys were in our mock drafts around that pick before the draft. A funny connection between Jones and Scott. They both have been on the Adam Rank Podcast in their rookie years. So is this a Rank Curse?

Part of Fields getting the ball out also has to do with the drop back. I think they messed him up with the opposite foot thing, but I could be wrong. It just feels like even when he is at his back foot, he is not ready to throw. I have also noticed him drifting, maybe he has done that all along, but I have noticed it more recently. Another factor is play design. I don't know who designed the plays for the Bears offense, but a lot of them actually make things worse/harder. Outside of crazy long down and distances, there should be a short and intermediate target, and an outlet on every play. Depending on the formation, you might have multiple of some routes and even some deep ones. With that said, just based on physics, the shorter routes will come open first unless there is some type of crossing route that is designed to go all the way across the field. Preferably, you would also like the route concepts to come open right to left or left to right, or center and out to one side (normally with boot action). With Getsy, I don't see that enough. Watching the all-22, a high percentage of routes look like they are timed for the same timing. Meaning if the QB looks at #2, by the time he looks at #3, it's too late. I am not trying to absolve JF1, but there are issues with the offense that are not helping Justin at all. I have a feeling that they are telling him not to throw over the middle unless you absolutely know you can make the throw because majority of the INTs come off balls to the MoF. I could be wrong, but it feels like that. Go back and watch the PIT game from his rookie year. The speed of the drop back, the timing, it was all there. If not for one of the more BS penalties of all-time, the Bears win that game (Marsh penalty after Correnti hip checked him).

Last 6 + Streak + QB: MIN 4-2 (L2) - Dobbs GB 3-3 (W2) - Love LAR 3-3 (W2) - Stafford CHI 3-3 (W1) - Fields ATL 2-4 (W1) - Ridder SEA 2-4 (L3) - Smith NO 2-4 (L3) - Carr TB 1-5 (L2) - Mayfield Outside of Stafford, do any of the other QBs scare you?

There are only two viable playoff scenarios, win-out, which actually gives the Bears a great chance of making the playoffs. The only way 9-8 doesn't make it is if two of the teams (MIN, SEA, GB, LAR, TB, and ATL or NO) get hot and wins games they are not expected to win. ATL, NO, and TB are all in a race for the Division, and the odds are that the Div Champ will be the only team to make it from that division. That leaves MIN, SEA, GB, and LAR. SEA has a brutal schedule and may not survive the next few games. LAR has the 2nd toughest schedule and the Bears own a tie-breaker against them. So unless either of those teams go completely against what they have been doing, they may not be a concern come Week 18 So it seems that the playoffs are really going to come down to MIN and GB for the Bears. MIN has DET,GB, DET to finish their season. If DET can beat MIN twice, then the GB game might not even matter. GB basically starts their own playoffs Week 17 against MIN, then Week 18 against the Bears. They will more than likely go into Week 17 at 8-7 assuming they beat TB. If they beat TB they have to split MIN/CHI. If they lose to TB, they need to win their last 2 against MIN and CHI. If the Bears can get to Week 18 no worse than 7-9, there is a chance they could still get in with a win against GB. Obviously going in at 8-8 would be optimal, but anything less than 7-9, and this game will have a lot less meaning because more than likely GB will still be in the playoff picture as well.

Seattle lost to Dallas on TNF to fall to 6-6 and now in the 7th seed, MIN moves up to the 6th seed based on tie breakers. So both the 6th and 7th seeds are now 6-6, and the Bears at 4-8 with 5 games remaining. Seattle now has to play SF and PHI in the next two weeks. Like I said above, they will more than likely be 6-8 after that week. With 2 wins after the bye, the Bears could be tied with them at 6-8, which would've been unfathomable 3 weeks ago when SEA was 6-3 and the Bears were 2-7 with Bagent at QB. Due to the playoff implications, a home game, division opponent, the ending of the last time they played, and a bye, this Detroit game coming up may be the most important game for Flus, Getsy, and Fields, and one of the most impactful for the franchise in the last few years.

This made me think of this song for some reason:

So looking at the current roster and contracts, the Bears have a very solid core, and look to add 5-6 more high end pieces to it this offseason. If they trade a top pick, it will be even more. Right now I am going to assume they pick up 5 impact players: Impact draft picks: 3 (2x 1st rounders, 3rd rounder) Expected bigger FA acquisitions: 2 So if the Bears run it back with Fields on his 4th year, here is where I think they need to upgrade or fill in the core of the team (top 35). The bottom 20 of the roster are very fluid, and would be filled with 4th Round to UDFA and 1-year vet deals. On offense, Center, WR2/3, and TE2 are the most glaring needs. Even if they extend Mooney, he looks more like a WR3 nowadays. Now that the Bears signed Kmet to a deal, they need a rookie to backfill him in 3-4 years. Match a vet contract with a rookie deal. Center may be the biggest need on the team though. Offense: Fields/Bagent Herbert/Foreman/Johnson Kmet/FA or Rookie Jones, Jenkins, Patrick/FA or Rookie, Davis, Wright Moore, FA or Rookie, Scott, ESB If the Bears extend Johnson, the defense looks intact for next year minus Edge and FS. Only two holes really. Defense: Sweat, Billings/Pickens, Dexter, Walker/FA or Rookie Edmunds, Edwards, Sanborn, Sewell Johnson, Stevenson/Smith, Gordon, Brisker, FA or Rookie Expected cuts and cap savings: Jackson - $12.5M (has never been the same dude since injury in late 2018 really), the other option here is to restructure his deal Whitehair - $9.1M (dude has been a warrior in the trenches and one of the longest tenured Bears, but he is not worth $13.5M) $82.4M + $21.6 = $104M (biggest cap space in NFL currently is $100M - TEN). Cutting these two would give the Bears the most with that roster above. That looks really solid. They could extend guys like Johnson, Santos, Edwards, and even consider Mooney while still signing 2-3 impact FAs. Other possible cuts: DeMarcus Walker - $4.5M (has been serviceable, but if you need the cap space to bring a guy like Chase Young in to pair with Sweat, you cut Walker for the roster spot and cap savings) Travis Homer - $1.9M (has hardly played, has been horrible on offense and below average on ST, PFF has him as the worst player on the team - 37.9 grade) Velus Jones - $918K - It is not a huge cap savings, but it would cover a vet minimum deal and roster spot. This guy is terrible at just about everything but running straight and photo bombing teammates inadvertently. The worst 3 players on offense according to PFF are Homer, Whitehair, and Tonyan, and Blackwell, Robinson, and Ngakoue on defense. Homer, Whitehair, and Robinson are the only 3 under contract for 2024. Cutting the fat at the bottom and adding at the top to push the depth charts down is the best path to sustained success. If they went into 2024 without those 6 they would raise their floor considerably.

Stroud is basically $7.5M, so $8M makes sense: https://boardroom.tv/nfl-draft-pick-salaries-by-round-2023/ I don't think next year is the issue with Fields' contract, it becomes the 5th Year option year and or any future years that would overlap a new rookie's deal (2025-2028). In those years, you have to take out 2-3 vets making $10M a year. Right now that is actually easy (Whitehair, Jackson), and maybe in a year or two (Edmunds, Davis). So there is a path to keeping the team mostly intact, but Fields has to play at a level that can overcome the losses of the players his salary would replace.

and Stroud has a 62.7 so far this year, better than both Tua and Fields. Tua gets a big penalty for his running. He is only averaging 1.5 yards per carry. They clearly are not allowing him to run (concussion risks).

If we win out and make the playoffs, Getsy may get some HC interviews because that would be an epic turnaround.

At this point, 7 wins has to be seen as a success because that would mean you went 7-6 for the final 13 games after starting 0-4. 7 wins would obviously be 4 more than last year, so more than doubling your win total is tough in this league.

If they kept Flus and Fields, and fired Getsy, that would be 3 OC's in 4 years for Justin. That is tough for any QB, let alone one trying to clean up some fatal flaws. On Stroud, depending on how you look at it, that was his worst game, but he did have a rushing TD that game. He has had 8 multi-TD games but in the 3 games where he had 0-1 TDs, he didn't throw an INT. His lowest QB Rating has been 78.0 with 5 games above 100. Justin has a 78.2, 61.1, 58,7, and 36.7. So it seems like Fields' floor is a lot lower than we thought and he has too many bad games with multiple turnovers.

Yes, there is still a chance. It is basically win out or nothing. The Bears have to leapfrog 5 of these 6 teams: SEA, MIN, GB, LAR, NO, TB. Based on projections, all of them could finish 8-9. So if the Bears finished 8-9, they would have to win a bunch of tiebreakers with 5 of those teams which is extremely unlikely. So chances of making the playoffs going 4-1 and finishing 8-9 are probably around 10% (if that one loss is to CLE). Now if the win out and finish 9-8, there is probably a 75% chance they make the playoffs. ATL is currently a division leader and plays TB, CHI, and NO from the in the hunt teams. If Bears win out, they are beating ATL which would give them the H2H tiebreaker. It is better for the Bears to have NO win the division. Proj: 8-9/6-6 (Week 18 @ NO is basically a Division Championship Game, winner is the #4 seed, loser goes home) SEA is currently the #6 seed and has to play DAL, SF, and PHI in the next 3 weeks, so they may be 6-8 in a few weeks. They have the toughest road. Owns Common Tiebreaker against the Bears. Proj: 8-9/6-6 MIN is currently the #7 seed and on a bye. They play GB from the in the hunt teams and get DET twice in 3 weeks. Losing to DET twice or losing to DET once and also losing to LVR would give Bears the common tiebreaker. Proj: 8-9/7-5 Good Conf record GB is currently the #8 seed and play KC this weekend. They play TB, MIN, and CHI from the in the hunt teams. The Bears would have the common tiebreaker with GB. Proj: 8-9/7-5 Good Conf record (GB @ MIN in Week 17 followed by CHI @ GB Week 18 will decide the playoff fate for a lot of teams) LAR is currently the #9 seed and only play NO from the in the hunt teams. They also play CLE, BAL, and SF. 2nd toughest schedule. The Bears would have the Common Tiebreaker % over the Rams. Proj: 8-9/6-6 NO is currently the #10 seed but also fighting ATL for the division title. They finish with LAR, TB, and ATL, and their next game is DET. Owns H2H tiebreaker with Bears. Proj: 8-9/5-7 (bad Conf record forces them to win Division) TB is currently the #11 seed and play ATL, GB, and NO from the in the hunt teams. They also play CAR twice. They have the easiest schedule. Owns H2H tiebreaker with Bears. Proj: 8-9/7-5 Good Conf record CHI is currently the #12 seed and plays ATL and GB from the in the hunt teams. Regardless of anything else, they have to win out to get into the playoffs at 9-8. Based on the other teams schedules, it is highly unlikely that 2 of the WC seeded teams get to 9 wins, and even if they did, there is a good chance Chicago could win at least one tie breaker (H2H, Conf, Common) - Proj: 9-8/7-5 Good Conf record or 8-9/7-5 Good Conf record (CLE loss) or 8-9/6-6 (CLE win). BLUF: If the Bears go 4-1 and lose to an NFC Team, they are out. If the Bears win out they have a great chance at making the playoffs. If they go 4-1 and lose to CLE, they still have some tiebreaker chances.

Justin needs to have 11-12 solid games out of 17, with a few great games sprinkled in. The problem is, the volume of solid games is too low. He has 3-4 a season, some mid games, but some real stinkers too. Also, if he was throwing for 300+ yards a game with 3 TDs, then the 1 or 2 turnovers doesn't feel as bad because he is making it up with TDs. So he can't have game like the MIN game where he has 0 TDs and 2 turnovers. With any QB, the minimum standard is more TDs than turnovers. The great ones have an incredible ratio, the good ones are at least 2 to 1. Fields is at 1.24. Trubisky had a 1.45 with the Bears.

That double doink changed the career trajectories of so many people and the franchise as a whole. Pace, Nagy, Trubisky, etc.

Riley Leonard?

NYJ does not have a 2nd round pick. If there were looking to move up to #1, I don't know if they are a fit for the Bears as I assumed that Poles would like to get his 2nd round pick back. ARZ has their pick and HOU's pick in the 1st. It would be nice for them to move up to #1 and give up both 1st's in lieu of giving up a 2025 1st. So the Bears could conceivably trade back from 1 to get #3, #6 (own pick), and #17 while adding an early 2nd rounder back into the mix. 4 picks in the top 35. ARZ has a haul picks to use or trade: (2x 1st, 2x 3rd, 2x 4th, 2x 5th) I would hate to trade with NE as they always seem to screw teams over. Other potential trade partners would be TB, NYJ, LVR, NO, and LAR.

Outside of some red flags with Williams character, I am worried about his size, 6'1" is on the small side for QBs nowadays. Maye is at least 6'4", but neither have really impressed of late. If anyone, Penix and Daniels have been really impressive.

I was honing in on Fields stats with players plus or minus a little bit on both ends for those stats to find the closest group to him. That was sort of the point. He is in a pretty rare group of accomplished QBs, so there is something there. This is not Mitch Trubisky again, even though Mitch technically had better passing numbers.

Yep, I think reading the field and the passing over the middle stuff can be corrected or improved upon over time, but he can't turn the ball over at the rate he has been. Like you said, nothing else is going to matter. Jameis Winston threw for over 300 yards a lot but with 3 picks and a fumble in a ton of games. None of the stats mattered but the turnovers.