adam

Lol, I jump back and forth between my own beliefs, desires, and what I think the team is thinking. I want Fields to be H1M. That would be the best outcome for the franchise as it would provide unprecedented flexibility in the draft and would allow the team to take another leap forward against the competition (gained Moore + Wright + Johnson + 2024 1st + 2025 2nd) which could lead to an additional 2025 1st (if they trade a 1st) or drafting 2x blue chippers in the top 10. If Fields is deemed not the guy, then one of those picks is a QB, meaning there is still a hole to be filled and the team doesn't nearly take the leap forward against the grain as they would with using two picks or being able to trade one to gain more capital. I think they gave him a pass for the DET game as it was his first game back and he outperformed expectations. Then against MIN, they knew the blitzes would cause issues, so they modified the game plan. Now with this next game, there should be no restrictions and it will be his cleanest evaluation since the Denver, Washington games.

There are only 5 games left. He is 1-1 after 2 games, but ultimately it comes down to passing production. Only the team knows whether the game plan is because Getsy is terrible, or because they don't trust Fields, or both. He is 43-60, 71.1%, 386 yds, 6.4 Y/A, 1 TD, 0 INT, 3 Fumbles, 30-163 rushing in two games since returning. So his averages are 21.5-30, 193 yds, 6.4 Y/A, 0.5 TD, 0 INT, 1.5 FL, 15-81.5 rushing. Rushing+Passing: 274.5. So after 2 of the 7, his TD production is low, INTs look great, Y/A down, rushing looks great. Fumbles bad. His pass attempts are up 3 from his season average, and about 5 from his career averages. Comp% is way up but mainly due to Y/A being so low. It looks like he reverted back to the start of the season as the last two games are very similar to his first two of the season besides the INTs. He has never gone 3 straight games without an INT. He has two right now, but he turns the ball over too much. If it is not an INT, it is a fumble. Out of everything else, that may be the deciding factor.

No, if you are taking that part of the field away by yourself, then the defense can put assets in other places, which then it makes it doubly hard on you to succeed. I think this next game against DET will be the most telling game of Fields' career. He will be over 9 weeks since his injury, with 2 games under his belt to knock of the rust. The entire team will be coming off a bye, and will more than likely be the healthiest they have been all year. It is going to be his first home game since returning from injury, and he just put up 16-23, 169 yds, 69.6%, 7.3 Y/A, 1 TD, 0 INT with 104 rushing yards against DET in a hostile environment. So more weeks removed from injury, check, at home, check, coming off a bye, check, 2nd game against opponent, check. If he can't improve, look better, and win with all that going for him, you have your answer about his future and what the Bears will do going forward. If he plays bad, or only average and they lose again, the remaining games will not be able to overcome the last 3.

Now with a few more games under his belt, here is where Fields is compared to his contemporaries. For a QB, in his 3rd year with 30-40 starts, over 30 passing TDs, under 40 INTs, 5K passing yards, an 80 QB Rating or higher, and at least 1000 rushing yards. That criteria has only 6 QBs in it in the Super Bowl era. Jackson, Watson, Hurts, Griffin, Jones, and Fields. Fields is last in attempts, completions, yards, Comp%, TD, QB Rating, and Pick6's. He is 2nd to last in sacks and Y/A and 4th in INT. He is 2nd in rushing yards and 4th in rushing TDs. In terms of QB Rating, he is closest to Jones. Here is how they stack up against each other as passers: Jones 796-1268, 62.8%, 8398 yds, 45 TD, 29 INT, 84.3 QB Rating (12-25 as a starter) Fields 494-810, 61.0%, 5699 yds, 36 TD, 27 INT, 83.1 QB Rating (7-26 as a starter) My belief is that unless Fields wins out while literally playing near an MVP level that they will move on from him after this season.

Purdy is a system QB. SF is the only team that would make him look this good. I am sure there a few others where he would be decent, but not on the Bears. There are some other things with Purdy that are concerning, he is only 6'1" and rarely do QBs that small excel for an extended period of time and they get injured more often on average. He has been lucky to date, but eventually he will be part of that statistic as well. People may forget but even the 49ers started Jimmy G and Trey Lance over Purdy until the last 5 games of the season in 2022. He also got hurt, which ended their playoff run. Besides the O-Line, I am sure it is nice having McCaffrey, Deebo, Aiyuk, and Kittle as your top 4 receiving threats. Is there a better top 4 in the NFL? McCaffrey is such a dual threat, he gets a ton of targets. More than all Bears RBs combined. In comparison to those 4, that would be Herbert, Moore, Mooney, Kmet on the Bears lol. Moore is the only comparable receiver to SF's group, Kmet is decent but not on Kittle's level as a pass catcher. Mooney would be WR4 on SF. Herbert is nowhere near the pass catcher McCaffrey is.

So I was looking at Next Gen Stats and noticed something about Fields that has been discussed. He rarely targets over the middle between 10-20 yds. This season, he is 4-8 for 67 yds and 3 INTs over the middle between 10-20 yds. To put that into perspective, that is a 37.5% INT rate. His INT rate everywhere else on the field is 1.4%. That is insane. The best INT rate all-time for a career is Rodgers at 1.4%. Fields career INT rate is 3.3% and it's 2.7% this year, but again 1.4% is elite, while 37.5% is outrageously high. Also, that is not all throws over the middle, just between 10-20 yards. So it seems like Getsy has taken that out of the playbook as Fields only has one pass attempted in that area of the field in the last two games.

OK a little off topic, how is PIT 7-4 when they are -23 in pt differential while LAC is 4-7 with a +11? PIT is also negative in yard differential at -44 yds. So PIT allows more yard and points than their opponents but are 7-4 in those games. The Bears are +23 in yard differential. For DVOA, there are 5 teams with a top 10 offense and top 10 defense: 1. BAL 4/2 2. SF 1/6 3. KC 5/8 4. DET 6/10 5. DAL 10/3 BUF is 6-6 but is 5th in DVOA. LAC is 4-7 and 13th. DEN is 6-5 and 22nd. Turnover Leaders (FL/INT): 1. Dobbs 5/10 = 15 2. Howell 1/13 = 14 3. Jones 1/12 = 13 4. Allen 0/12 = 12 4. Yound 4/8 = 12 4. Ridder 4/8 = 12 7. Hurts 1/10 = 11 7. Minshew 4/7 = 11 7. Lawrence 4/7 = 11 7. Mahomes 2/9 = 11 Fields is at 3/6 = 9 Fields has the longest Time to Throw in the NFL at 3.13. Tua is the fastest at 2.36.

I like the top one for his last 5 games. Arguably the best 5 of his career. On the 2nd half, all true, but cherrypicking for sure. I like QBR (44.5 - 23rd) over QB Rating, both are useful, but QBR is more accurate. Rushing yards are great, but should be more icing on the cake than the main meal. Using a stat and picking out one QB is kinda funny, he is 21st in the league for Comp%, behind the likes of Mac Jones, Desmond Ridder, Sam Howell and Baker Mayfield. Also, his Comp% is 0.7% higher than Stroud's but Stroud's Y/A is 8.4 compared to 7.1. So it is expected for a QB to have a lower Comp% with a higher Y/A.

Here is Fields' chart. Air Yards per attempt was 2.7, a career low. 17 passes at or behind the LOS. Only 5 pass attempts beyond 10 yards, and only 2 beyond 15. He only had 5 incompletions inbounds, and one was into the chest of the defender. This is nothing to write home about. One less fumble and a passing or rushing TD would've made this performance acceptable.

What is crazy is his YAC. He is 2nd in the NFL with 440 YAC, with Tyreek Hill at #1 with 550.

DJ probably won't get the Bears single season records for receptions or yards, but he is right there for 2nd in both categories. Marshall has 118-1508 as the franchise single season leader. #2 in receptions is Allen Robinson with 102, and Alshon with 1421 yards. Moore is on pace for 99-1420, however, that is based on averages and he got the ball less with Bagent. So if he trends slightly higher, he could finish with over 100 catches and 1470 yards.

Last 4 full games: Hurts 78-114, 68.4%, 876 yds, 7.7 Y/A, 9 TD, 2 INT (4-0 record), Rushing: 40-136, 3.4 Y/C, 5 TD, 12 sacks, 1 FL Fields 86-124, 69.4%, 1003 yds, 8.1 Y/A, 9 TD, 1 INT (2-2 record, 2 defensive meltdowns), Rushing: 45-245, 5.4 Y/C, 0 TD, 12 sacks, 3 FL Usage-wise, this is pretty crazy how close they are thru 4 full games. Fields with 10 more passing attempts and 4 more rushes, more yards, better Y/A and Y/C, less INTs. The biggest outliers are rushing TDs (Hurts 5) and fumbles lost (Fields 3). Hurts benefits greatly from the team around him and the tush push, but outside of that, if you didn't know better, most would say Fields is the better player when comparing these stats.

So many decisions, it is going to be crazy. The Bears record is going to be the biggest factor. If they somehow win out or even go 4-1 in their last 5. That would put them in the teens. That pick would not be as "tradeable" as the #1. So do you trade that pick to get another blue chip vet and an additional 2025 1st, or do you draft the QB or MHJ? Decisions decisions.

I would say at worst #2 and #8. At best #1 and #4. Most realistic #1 and #6.

Even with the Bears off, CAR plays TB, NE plays LAC, and NYJ plays ATL. 3 games with draft implications. CAR loss to TB solidifies the #1 pick while also helping with the Bears pick (TB gets another win). NE winning would be huge for the Bears, but even if LAC wins, that keeps the Bears actual pick in the top 8. An NYJ win would keep the Bears in the top 7. So if TB beats CAR, NYJ beats ATL, and LAC beats NE, the Bears would have a great shot at a top 6 pick. For the "in the hunt" crowd: SEA (6-5) is at DAL, GB (5-6) is playing KC, LAR (5-6) is playing CLE, and NO (5-6) is playing DET. So there is a chance that every team ahead of the Bears in the playoff picture that is playing could lose.

PFF Grades Top 5/Bottom 5 Offense: Moore 82.2, Jones 76.5, Jenkins 75.9, Kmet 75.4, Davis 71.3 Whitehair 37.7, Mooney 45.9, St. Brown 47.0, Patrick 49.4, Tonyan 49.7 Defense: Johnson 92.7, Edwards 80.8, Sweat 79.7, Brisker 74.9, Walker 74.6 Gordon 30.0, Dexter 36.4, Jones 46.6, Billings 51.8, Jackson 55.0

He is a terrible HC, but his defense is somehow working. Poles should get credit as the defense's worst starter is probably Justin Jones, and he is at least serviceable. If they can get an upgrade at DT, DE2, and at safety to replace Jackson, this defense should be top 10 across the board for the foreseeable future.

and there is something about his scrambling and runs this year. He is not being as elusive, he seems to be running right into guys without trying to juke them or anything. On the first fumble he ran straight into the guy instead of running to the right away from him. On the second one, it was a little harder as it was a sack, but he doesn't seem to have the same grip strength. At least he gets the bye to rest up for Detroit.

6 for 6 over 50 yards (3rd-T), 92.0% FG% (10th), 95.5% XP%, 9th in Touchbacks, has only missed 3 kicks all season out of 47. The Bears need to extend him.

Some fairly impressive numbers from the Bears defense. In general, they are clearly better than last year and have improved even more since players got healthy and the acquisition of Sweat. Both Sweat and Edwards are playing at Pro Bowl levels. #1 against the Run (79 yds/game) #3 Interceptions (13) #9 Total Yards Allowed (318 yds/game) #11 Turnovers (20) #16 Passes Defended (50) #19 Defensive DVOA (last season they finished #32) #22 against the Pass (248yds/game) TJ Edwards #2 in tackles (125), also has 2 sacks, 2 INT, and 1 FF Jaylon Johnson #7T in interceptions (3) Montez Sweat #12 in sacks (9), (4g, 2.5 sacks, 6 QB Hits, 2 TFL, team is allowing only 17.25 pts per game since his arrival.) Dexter looks to be improving with more snaps Brisker and Gordon are finally making plays Jackson is gone, he just floats deep in the secondary and is not worth the cap hit

Test #2 - Bears win, Fields leads GW drive, but caused them to need it. He had a 41.9 QBR and a 87.3 QB Rating. That is below average, and compared to what he did against DET, I would say he gets a C and this game does not count as a vote of confidence for him. He made a couple of plays but ultimately looked like he was playing not to lose. He didn't throw an INT, but had 2 fumbles, which are no different. He had 276 passing+rushing yards and 0 TDs. So it was definitely a meh game. Some positive notes: he improved game over game against what he did against MIN earlier in the season. He tied for a season high 37 pass attempts. He has gone 60 attempts without an INT, the 2nd longest stretch of his career. On a side note, it looks like his thumb is still bothering him. Weird parallels with the GB game to open the season for Fields, both games with 37 attempts, 216 yards against GB, 217 against MIN. Both games with 59 rushing yards.

Bears drafting 1 and 4, projected to draft 1 and 8. 7 teams have 4 wins, it looks like the Bears are now projected to win 6 games, which would drop them down to #8 as 7 teams are projected to have 5 wins or less. CAR plays 5 games against teams with a losing record. They are probably going to win one of those two against TB. ARI only plays the Bears and then 4 teams with winning records. So if they don't beat the Bears, they finish with 2 wins. NE plays two 4-win teams and 4 teams with winning records. So they will probably only win one. They scored 7 pts and lost to NYG. CHI plays ARI, two teams with losing records, and CLE who is on QB3. Odds are they win at least two. WAS plays NYJ and 4 teams with winning records. So they will probably only win one. NYG plays 3 teams with losing records and PHI twice. They will probably win one of those three. They barely beat NE 10-7. TB plays CAR twice and 3 other games against losing teams. They have the easiest schedule of the group and should win 3 of 6. NYJ plays NE and two other teams with losing records. They should win at least one of those. LAC plays NE and LVR, and 4 teams with winning records. I have them winning two. TEN has the toughest schedule of the group with 6 games against teams with winning records. I have them winning one of those games because they barely beat CAR 17-10.

If the Bears don't have meltdowns against DEN and DET, they are 6-6 going into the bye. Literally two plays away from 6-6. The narrative would be polar opposite right now.

Bears win, go to 4-8 and are still drafting #1 and #4.

The odds of the Bears messing that up was too high. Also, they needed to burn all the Vikings tickets and burn the clock.