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Everything posted by adam
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Oh, I thought it was worse as he went to IR quick. It was not like a later in the week thing after some evaluation. Normally those are worse than others where they think it might only be 2-3 weeks, they don't put him on IR. IR is at least 4 weeks.
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The deadline this year is going to be interesting. Do the Bears consider moving Mooney, Johnson, Jackson, Whitehair, Jones, or any other vet signed for more than a year? For Mooney and Johnson, do they really want to sign back with this team after the last two years? Buffalo just lost their starting CB White, maybe they get desperate for CB help and fork over a higher pick for Johnson. What is he worth right now as a rental? A 4th or 5th? I would rather extend them but who knows what the plan is.
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That would be amazing to be honest. Get a few wins but still get the top 2 picks.
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Carolina's next 3 weeks are @DET, @MIA, then their bye (which is super early). So they will go into their bye 0-6. After their bye, things lighten up with HOU, IND, and @CHI. I figure they will win at least one of those but could come into the game with the Bears 0-8 or 1-7. The Bears get WSH (2-2), MIN (1-3), then LVR (1-3) before @LAC (2-2) and NO (2-2) before the CAR game. Just based on probability, the Bears will win at least one of those before the CAR game and probably 2 to go into that game at 2-7. For draft positioning, you want the 1st pick at all costs, so the team with the better record needs to win the CAR/CHI game to push the lower team down even further. Here is my tankathon schedule grid. The next two weeks will have 4 of the bottom 10 teams get wins. NYJ@DEN and CIN@ARI this week and MIN@CHI and NE@LV in Week 6. One great projection for the Bears is Carolina only plays 1 game against one of the bottom 10 teams all year, the Bears. LV plays 6 of 10 and CHI and MIN play 5 each.
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Looking around the league, there are some bad teams out there, and the Bears are not the only ones underachieving. Did anyone see the Giants last night? The Bears are 0-4, should be at least 1-3, but probably projected to be 2-2 at this point. Obviously we have watched this team lose in every conceivable way. Bengals are 1-3 and just lost to the Titans 24-3. Burrow looks like a shell of his former self. Chase has 0 TDs. Just very odd considering they still have Chase, Higgins, Boyd, and Mixon as their top skill players. Patriots are 1-3 and their only win was a 15-10 barn burner against a Wilson-led Jets team. Mac Jones had looked like crap, their leading receiver is Hunter Henry and their RBBC with Stevenson and Elliott doesn't seem to be working. People almost forget they have Gesicki, JuJu, and DeVante Parker as those guys are targeted only a few times per game. Giants are 1-3 and have looked like the worst team in the league being outscored 94-15 in 3 losses and their only win was a 3-pt win against ARZ. They started the season going 6 quarters without a TD, and now have went 5 more quarters without one. Jones was sacked 10 times on MNF. Vikings are 1-3 and even though people expected them to come back down to earth after exceeding expectations last year, I don't think they expected them to be 1-3 and their only win against a winless Panthers team. For me, the two biggest surprises are the Bengals and Giants. I did not expect them both to look this bad and be that close to 0-4.
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It is so hard to separate cart from horse here. Is Getsy only calling plays he knows Fields can run, or is comfortable with? When he calls zone beaters, Fields doesn't throw the ball, like he is playing a 2D video game instead of 3D. or is Getsy just completely terrible, making Fields look worse? I am sure it is a little bit of both.
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Absolutely, you can't hit a HR if you don't swing. However, what is "right" at the top besides Wright? Wright is the only player playing up to his draft slot, and Moore is the only vet acquisition doing anything besides Billings. So for guys Poles added, that's it. Brisker looks terrible (playing hurt?), Dexter and Stevenson are playing ok, Pickens has been bad, and Velus is still on the roster. Ngakoue, Walker, and Green are playing really bad, and Edmunds and Edwards just look out of place. Everyone can say it's all on the coaching, but the coaches don't miss the tackles (or sacks), miss assignment, blow coverages. I rewatched the game against Denver, and it really is hard to understand what Brisker is doing half the time. He looks best just blindly rushing a gap. When he has to work in space, he does not look good. The Bears need more impact players and from the looks of it, Moore may be the only guy on the roster that is (besides when Fields runs). That is indicative of the 0-4 start.
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It's crazy because if you look at this trade from day 1, it was filled with red flags, but we mostly discounted them because "Poles had to do something" "Poles needed a vet WR to see if Fields can develop" "An extra half season will help" when in reality we were all reaching for straws. Claypool was a headcase in Pittsburgh, was never more than a WR3, and they drafted his replacement in Pickens. You don't move on from a 24 yr old WR in his 3rd year because his contract extension is 1.5 years away, that is silly talk. There was one spurt of offseason coverage where he was having a good practice in shorts and everyone got all excited at the prospects of him turning it around. He basically averaged 4 receptions a game with Pittsburgh, that went to 2 last season in Chicago, to basically 1 this year. To imagine a guy could be a healthy scratch in Week 4 in a contract year is pretty wild. I hope the Bears can get something for him, but after all of this drama, his trade value is probably gone. Now they are going to wait out the trading deadline and see if any team gets desperate. However, considering how he looked changing teams last year, I don't know what team would think he would be useful this season. Just a total mess because the ripple effects are huge. That 2nd rounder could've been anyone in the 2nd round, the Bears essentially lost an upgrade somewhere on the roster for less than a full year of Claypool.
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Jones is on IR with a neck injury, it happened quickly, which is normally not a good sign. My assumption is if the Bears are 2-7 or something like that when he could return, that they would just shut him down for the year. Both have been bad, but I believe Whitehair has been slightly better.
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He's probably just messing with you and could easily say it was me as I am more on the side of moving on than I am on keeping Fields and stacking the deck in the next draft. However, Fields will literally have to show he is the guy week in and week out AND win some games on his own. Until then, it may be better to part ways, reset the rookie QB window and try again with Williams. If the Bears win 3-4 or less, Fields is probably gone regardless.
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I have been watching the Bears as long as I can remember, even listening to games on the radio, and there were too extended stretches of suck, late 90's going from Wanny to Jauron and then Trestman to Fox. The worst 3 year stretch was 14 wins from 97-99 and again in 14-16 AND 15-17. I didn't think they could get lower than that, but 9 wins right now in the last 2 1/4 years with 13 games remaining. They would have to win 5 just to tie their worst 3-year stretch in the last 40 years, and technically that would still make it the worst because of the 17th games in 2022 and this year. So as to not be the worst 3-year stretch in winning % since 73-75 (50 yrs ago), they have to win 6 of the last 13. That ain't happening. So Pace and Poles with Nagy and Flus have masterminded the worst 3-year stretch in the last 50 years of Bears football, and we have had some bad football in that half century, but nothing like this. Here are the 4 worst 2-year stretches in franchise history (since 1920): 3-18 .143 (22-23 Eberflus) 8-24 .250 (16-17 Fox) 8-24 .250 (97-98 Wannstedt) 7-21 .250 (73-74 Gibron)
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Good riddance, what a huge miss by Poles. NEVER EVER TRADE WITH TEAMS LIKE PITTSBURGH. They don't just let young talent walk out the door. They really fleeced Poles on the draft pick. He was originally a second round pick, you don't trade a 2nd rounder for 1.5 years of a guy when you can just draft a rookie of the same caliber and get 4 years out of them. Should've been a 3rd, or at most the late 2nd.
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If they are telling him to stay away from the facility, how toxic can he be? That is wild. It would hard to imagine getting anything but a 6th or 7th for him at this point, and possibly nothing.
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Sam Howell is the QB. He is a less mobile Mitch Trubisky.
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What better way to cleanse yourself from a bad loss with another loss? The best part, the Bears will have 10 days to talk about this loss until their next loss. I don't see any way this team magically rebounds after that loss, not with only walk-thrus this week. On a short week with a good portion of the secondary still out, the Commanders have a great receiving corps with McLaurin, Samuel, and Dotson, all over 100 yards receiving. Brian Robinson has also been great on the ground with 261 yds (Herbert has 196). The x-factor is Sam Howell. He has 4 TDs and 5 INTs. That's it though. If things don't change, especially on defense, this is another loss, drop to 0-5. Right now I am going Commanders 30-20.
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Johnson has been slightly above average in most metrics, but is not a ballhawk. He takes very few chances. However, how much has Bears coaching hurt him? Why would he want to sign an extension here? For Edwards, I was just saying he was playing at an elite level in Philly, now missing tackles in Chicago. Getting a tackle after a 7 yard run should not even be a tackle. BTW, Roquan and Nick Morrow are the top 2 rated LBs on PFF. Pretty funny. Mustipher looks much better, again coaching. Olin Kreutz was pretty vocal about it as Mustipher trained with Olin. I believe Carter does this year. So the only guys that have improved on the O-Line trained with Kreutz.
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It seems like this organization has had a player development deficit for quite some time. When has a player come into the organization and played better on the Bears than on a previous team (Akiem Hicks?). Of the recent acquisitions, the only player not to play worse on defense has been Billings. Edmunds, Edwards, Walker, Green, and Jones all seem worse this year. Tonyan has been bad, Davis with the obvious personal issues, but even Patrick has disappointed. Then on the draft side, what player have the Bears developed where you could actually see the progression? Eddie Jackson peaked in year 2, got hurt and was never the same. He has shied away from contact ever since that ankle injury. Jaylon Johnson has been fairly consistent since his rookie year, but the fact that he doesn't have an extension yet is somewhat alarming if the Bears do in fact think he is a CB1. Gordon was terrible his rookie year and hasn't played this year. Brisker looked better his rookie year, he looks much slower, missing tackles, and not playing that good in coverage in the first 4 weeks. Sanborn looked better his rookie year, still plays with hustle but is missing a ton of tackles. Stevenson and Smith, as rookie corners are playing ok, a couple of flash plays, but it's hard to see any true development. Still too early on them. How about Dexter and Pickens? I think Pickens got half a sack and that would be the first pressure for either of them, a quarter of the way thru the season. The Bears need a lot more out of these two. On offense, we obviously know about Fields, but Herbert is about the same, Kmet has been like Johnson, Mooney still seems a little off since the injury last year. Whitehair is getting worse with age, Braxton Jones was playing well before injury and may be the highlight of the Bears development. Wright is ok, but is a top 11 pick, so you would expect him to be at least good if not inconsistent. Jenkins can't stay healthy, and who knows what they do with him after 2024. He has only played in 19 games out of 37 possible games, he will miss his 19th game on Thursday, meaning he has only be available for 50% of the games. That is just way too low for a contract extension. So for new acquisitions, maybe Moore is the only player on track for a better season statistically than he had last year. Of the rookies, maybe Roschon is the only one playing better than his draft status, and from the Bears from last season, maybe Braxton Jones was it before getting hurt (neck injury). Who am I missing? Just seems like an underwhelming and disappointing group, pointing to bad coaching all around. This does not even count Claypool who looks to be a pending cut or trade candidate. How about Leatherwood? Never improved. Something is in the water at Halas Hall and it is not good. Did they import Flint specials?
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You have to pound the over until the Bears defense shows they can stop anyone. The expected score is 25-19 Commanders, now at 44.5 and +6.5. So 25.5 to 19 is the updated expected score. The only concern is Washington's offense is worse than Denver's and Denver's offense only scored 24. So something like 24-17 to 24-20 seems like the expected outcome.
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Fields has raised his DVOA to -31.1%, which is pretty incredible considering where it was at. He is no longer last in the NFL. That distinction belongs to Daniel Jones, followed by Bryce Young, Sam Howell, and Desmond Ridder. One or two more decent games and he will be in the middle of the pack and out of the QB cellar.